SATURDAY NIGHT: There was no Saturday miracle surge for New Line. The Golden Compass, an effects-laden family film starring Nicole Kidman with a reported budget of $200 million, received a modest 16 percent increase from its opening day, posting an estimated $10.2 million on Saturday. Assuming a Sunday drop of 33 percent, Compass will finish its opening weekend with a disastrous $25.84 million. (For a comparison to other big-budget, family-oriented films in this mold, along with details about New Line's dismal 2007 and Nicole Kidman's box office cold streak, scroll down to my Friday Night report.)

Disney's Enchanted, with surefire Oscar nominee Amy Adams, blew past $80 million domestic thanks to a $4.9 million Saturday, and the live action/animation hybrid is on pace for an estimated $10.98 million for the weekend. This Christmas (Sony), Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) and Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) finished 3-4-5 on Saturday, and should stay in that order for the three-day frame.

Juno (Fox Searchlight) enjoyed only a 2 percent increase from its meteoric Friday, grabbing a Saturday PTA of just over $18,000. The spectacularly reviewed ensemble comedy will finish the weekend with a PTA of just over $52,000, giving it one of the all-time Top 50 opening weekend PTAs. This bodes very well for Searchlight's upcoming expansion, and commercial success can only help Oscar pushes for Ellen Page (Best Actress), Jennifer Garner (Best Supporting Actress), Diablo Cody (Best Original Screenplay) and Best Picture. Also trolling for Oscars will be Atonement, (Focus) starring Keira Knightley and James McAvoy, which received a 36 percent Saturday uptick in ticket sales at its 32 locations. It will finish No. 2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard, at just over $23,000. That's solid, but slightly disappointing given the movie's awards pedigree and its 86 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Julian Schnabel's acclaimed The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax), already a winner at the Cannes Film Festival and recognized this week by the National Board of Review, has held well at its three locations. The French-language movie will finish third in PTA for the weekend, likely just shy of $19,000 per. Thinkfilm's The Walker, starring Woody Harrelson and Kristin Scott Thomas, is showing some life in limited release with a three-day PTA of almost $7,000, but Iraq War-themed Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein), Guy Ritchie's Revolver (IDP Films) and First Look's The Amateurs, featuring a quirky performance from Jeff Bridges, all appear to be non-starters.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — $10,208,000, $2,893 PTA [$19,008,000 cume]
2. Enchanted (Disney) — $4,901,000, $1,392 PTA [$80,960,000 cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $2,371,650, $1,262 PTA [$41,586,650 cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $2,163,150, $679 PTA [$64,357,150 cume]
5. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1,996,600, $671 PTA [$74,919,600 cume]
6. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1,751,400, $1,323 PTA [$27,639,400 cume]
7. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $1,633,500, $707 PTA [$24,466,500 cume]
8. American Gangster (Universal) — $1,547,750, $726 PTA [$125,317,750 cume]
9. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $1,372,800, $568 PTA [$34,747,800 cume]
10. Awake (MGM) — $1,331,000, $658 PTA [$9,847,000 cume]
11. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1,213,800, $448 PTA [$120,223,800 cume]
12. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $1,094,400, $468 PTA [$22,702,400 cume]
* NEW Atonement (Focus) — $306,000, $9,563 PTA [$531,000 cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $274,177, $854, $5,159,955 cume]
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $136,875, $925 PTA [$2,104,910 cume]
* NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $127,500, $18,214, $363,500 cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $121,094, $1,477, $1,105,896 cume]
* NEW Noelle (Gener8Xion Entertainment) — $63,519, $331 PTA [$124,013 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $60,619, $6,735 PTA [$323,683 cume]
* The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $23,603, $7,868 PTA [$151,956 cume]
* NEW Revolver (IDP Films) — $19,665, $1,093 PTA [$33,417 cume]
* NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — $9,329, $3,110 PTA [$14,291 cume]
* NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — $6,882, $1,721 PTA [$11,238 cume]
* Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — $4,950, $2,475 PTA [$12,124 cume]
* NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — $3,022, $1,007 PTA [$7,819 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — $25,847,360, $7,326 PTA [$25,847,360 cume]
2. Enchanted (Disney) — $10,986,650, $3,121 PTA [$84,145,650 cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $5,297,073, $2,819 PTA [$43,057,073 cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $4,769,303, $1,497 PTA [$65,698,303 cume]
5. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $4,634,390, $1,557 PTA [$76,217,390 cume]
6. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $4,167,324, $3,148 PTA [$28,795,324 cume]
7. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $3,839,935, $1,662 PTA [$25,462,935 cume]
8. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $3,305,120 , $1,367 PTA [$35,640,120 cume]
9. Awake (MGM) — $3,296,150, $1,629 PTA [$10,712,150 cume]
10. American Gangster (Universal) — $3,184,968, $1,494 PTA [$126,199,968 cume]
11. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2,561,356, $946 PTA [$120,976,356 cume]
12. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $2,456,320, $1,052 PTA [$23,304,320 cume]
* NEW Atonement (Focus) — $745,200, $23,288 PTA [$745,200 cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $617,697, $1,924 PTA [$5,329,945 cume]
* NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $364,700, $52,100 PTA [$475,700 cume]
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $309,191, $2,089 PTA [$2,191,141 cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $276,827, $3,376 PTA [$1,188,239 cume]
* NEW Noelle (Gener8Xion Entertainment) — $165,300, $814 PTA [$165,300 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $155,438, $17,271 PTA [$367,935 cume]
* The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $56,936, $18,979, $169,658 cume]
* NEW Revolver (IDP Films) — $46,790, $2,599, $46,790 cume]
* NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — $20,821, $6,940 PTA [$20,821 cume]
* NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — $16,056, $4,014 PTA [$16,056 cume]
* NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — $15,342, $7,671 PTA [$15,342 cume]
* NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — $9,844, $3,281 PTA [$9,844 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — 7 locations, $18,214 PTA
2. NEW Atonement (Focus) — 32 locations, $9,563 PTA
3. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $7,868 PTA
4. The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 9 locations, $6,735 PTA
5. NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $2,475 PTA
6. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — 3,528 locations, $2,893 PTA
7. NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — 2 locations, $2,475 PTA
8. NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — 4 locations, $1,721 PTA
9. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 82 locations, $1,477 PTA
10. Enchanted (Disney) — 3,520 locations, $1,392

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — 7 locations, $52,100 PTA
2. NEW Atonement (Focus) — 32 locations, $23,288 PTA
3. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $18,979 PTA
4. The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 9 locations, $17,271 PTA
5. NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — 2 locations, $7,671 PTA
6. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — 3,528 locations, $7,326 PTA
7. NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $6,940 PTA
8. NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — 4 locations, $4,014 PTA
9. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 82 locations, $3,376 PTA
10. NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — 3 locations, $3,281

FRIDAY NIGHT: New Line's The Golden Compass, which has a reported budget of more than $200 million, has staggered out of the starting gate with an opening day of $9 million or so, and it will likely muster only an estimated $27 million for the weekend. In the realm of big-budget, family-oriented films, The Golden Compass opening is absolutely anemic:

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire — $102.6 million opening
Harry Potter and the Prioner of Azkaban — $93.6 million opening
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone — $90.2 million opening
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets — $88.3 million opening
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — $72.6 million opening
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe — $65.5 million opening
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — $62 million opening
The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring — $47.2 million opening
The Golden Compass — $27 million opening (Estimate)
Eragon — $23.2 million opening
Bridge to Terabithia — $22.5 million opening
Stardust — $9.1 million opening

It's been an awful year for New Line, and the this turkey will clinch Nicole Kidman's reputation as box office poison. Hairspray ($27.4 million opening, $118.8 million cume) and Rush Hour 3 ($49.1 million opening, $140.1 million cume) have been the only real 2007 hits for New Line, but nothing else has topped $40 million domestic.

Fracture — $11 million opening, $39 million cume
The Number 23 — $14.6 million opening, $35.1 million cume
Mr. Woodcock — $8.7 million opening, $25.8 million cume
The Last Mimzy — $10 million opening, $21.4 million cume
Shoot 'Em Up — $5.7 million opening, $12.8 million cume
Rendition — $4 million opening, $9.7 million cume
Code Name: The Cleaner — $4.2 million opening, $8.1 million cume
Martian Child — $3.3 million opening, $7.4 million cume
Love in the Time of Cholera — $1.9 million opening, $4.3 million cume

Although Kidman's current specialty film, Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) is playing decently in limited release with an anticipated $3,043 weekend PTA at 82 locations, her last five live action releases have ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

2007 Invasion — $5.9 million opening, $15 million cume
2006 Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus — $29,000 opening, $223,000 cume
2005 Bewitched — $20.1 million opening, $63.3 million cume
2005 The Interpreter — $22.8 million opening, $72.7 million cume
2004 Birth — $1.7 million opening, $5 million cume

New Line will have a huge problem "playing through" the holidays based on the soft opening. With three movies, including I Am Legend (Warner Bros.), set for release next week, five more major films due the Friday before Christmas, and two new pics opening wide on Christmas day, The Golden Compass will have a hard time holding screens through the holidays. A total take of $100 million domestic is now a longshot, and the movie will probably finish only in the $80 million-$90 million range.

Disney's Enchanted continues to hold well with an estimated $2.9 million Friday and a strong $10.5 million projection for the weekend. By Monday morning, the Amy Adams vehicle will have banked more than $83 million. Dreamworks's Beowulf ($1.46 million Friday) may have edged This Christmas ($1.44 million) on Friday, but the two movies will change places by Sunday night. The Sony ensemble surprise hit should finish the weekend with a slightly stronger three-day number, but both movies will be in the $5.2 million range. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) should round out the Top 5 with approximately $3.67 million for the weekend.

On the specialty front, Juno (Fox Searchlight) is an arthouse sensation. Written by Diablo Cody and directed by Jason Reitman, the film is riding spectacular reviews and deafening Oscar buzz to an expected weekend PTA of nearly $58,000 at seven locations. If the number holds that would be one of the Top 35 PTA performances in modern box office history. Commercial success here may ensure Oscar nominations for Ellen Page for Best Actress, Jennifer Garner for Best Supporting Actress and Diablo Cody for Best Original Screenplay. Fox Searchlight may even be able to convert another surprise Best Picture nomination, as they did last year with Little Miss Sunshine.

The picture is not so dazzling for Joe Wright's Atonement (Focus), based on Ian McEwen's acclaimed novel. Focus opened wider, with 32 locations, and, although it managed a $7,000 PTA on Friday, the dark period romance may be out of synch with the mood of moviegoers. Enchanted, This Christmas and now Juno have demonstrated that people are looking for something a bit lighter after the fall offering of dark, disturbing movie fare. It will be interesting to see how Atonement holds up on Saturday, but at the moment, I'm anticipating a weekend PTA of about $23,000.

Other new specialty releases met with mixed results. Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment), with a predominantly African American cast, should deliver a PTA of just over $10,000 at two locations; Guy Ritchie's Revolver (IDP Films), starring Jason Statham and Ray Liotta, is headed for a weekend PTA of only $2,500 at 18 locations; and the long-shelved The Amateurs (First Look) will finish with an even softer $1,599 PTA while playing on just three screens.

Finally, another Iraq War-themed movie has crashed and burned. Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein), starring John Cusack and with an original score by Clint Eastwood, mustered only a $1,089 PTA on Friday at four locations, with a projected weekend PTA of $3,594. It will be very difficult for the Weinsteins to pick this film up off the mat, and that makes an Eastwood Oscar nomination for Best Original Score an uphill climb.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — $9,000,000, $2,551 PTA [$9,000,000 cume]
2. Enchanted (Disney) — $2,900,938, $824 PTA [$76,059,844 cume]
3. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1,461,613, $491 PTA [$73,044,768 cume]
4. This Christmas (Sony) — $1,443,876, $768 PTA [$39,204,057 cume]
5. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $1,282,865, $403 PTA [$62,211,473 cume]
6. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $1,130,643, $489 PTA [$22,753,769 cume]
7. Awake (MGM) — $1,115,444, $551 PTA [$8,531,282 cume]
8. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $1,069,950, $442 PTA [$33,404,536 cume]
9. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1,041,920, $787 PTA [$25,669,624 cume]
10. American Gangster (Universal) — $814,609, $382 PTA [$123,829,794 cume]
11. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $801,886, $343 PTA [$21,649,771 cume]
12. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $663,197, $245 PTA [$119,078,590 cume]
* NEW Atonement (Focus) — $224,992, $7,031 PTA [$224,992 cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $173,530, $541, $4,885,778 cume]
* NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $134,981, $19,283, $134,981 cume]
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $86,085, $582 PTA [$1,968,035 cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $73,390, $895, $984,802 cume]
* NEW Noelle (Gener8Xion Entertainment) — $60,494, $298 PTA [$60,494 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $22,366, $2,485 PTA [$263,064 cume]
* The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $15,631, $5,210 PTA [$128,353 cume]
* NEW Revolver (IDP Films) — $13,752, $764 PTA [$13,752 cume]
* NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — $7,174, $3,587 PTA [$7,174 cume]
* NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — $4,962, $1,654 PTA [$4,962 cume]
* NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — $4,797, $1,599 PTA [$4,797 cume]
* NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — $4,356, $1,089 PTA [$4,356 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — $27,000,000, $7,653 PTA [$27,000,000 cume]
2. Enchanted (Disney) — $10,588,422, $3,008 PTA [$83,747,328 cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $5,270,147, $2,805 PTA [$43,030,328 cume]
4. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $5,261,806, $1,768 PTA [$76,844,961 cume]
5. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $4,169,311, $1,309 PTA [$65,097,919 cume]
6. Awake (MGM) — $3,792,508, $1,875 PTA [$11,208,346 cume]
7. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $3,744,826, $1,549 PTA [$36,079,412 cume]
8. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $3,674,588, $1,591 PTA [$25,297,714 cume]
9. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $3,646,720, $2,754 PTA [$28,274,424 cume]
10. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $2,846,696, $1,219 PTA [$23,694,581 cume]
11. American Gangster (Universal) — $2,810,402, $1,318 PTA [$125,825,587 cume]
12. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2,387,510, $882 PTA [$120,802,903 cume]
* NEW Atonement (Focus) — $742,474, $23,202 PTA [$742,474 cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $572,649, $1,784 PTA [$5,284,897 cume]
* NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $309,904, $57,849, $404,943 cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $249,526, $3,043, $984,802 cume]
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $86,085, $2,094 PTA [$2,191,854 cume]
* NEW Noelle (Gener8Xion Entertainment) — $196,606, $969 PTA [$196,606 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $71,571, $7,952 PTA [$312,269 cume]
* The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $55,490, $18,497 PTA [$168,212 cume]
* NEW Revolver (IDP Films) — $45,382, $2,521 PTA [$45,382 cume]
* NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — $21,522, $10,761 PTA [$21,522 cume]
* NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — $17,989, $5,996 PTA [$17,989 cume]
* NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — $16,623, $5,541 PTA [$16,623 cume]
* NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — $14,375, $3,594 PTA [$14,375 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — 7 locations, $19,283 PTA
2. NEW Atonement (Focus) — 32 locations, $7,031 PTA
3. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $5,210 PTA
4. Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — 2 locations, $3,587 PTA
5. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — 3,528 locations, $2,551 PTA
6. The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 9 locations, $2,485 PTA
7. NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $1,654 PTA
8. NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — 3 locations, $1,599 PTA
9. NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — 4 locations, $1,089 PTA
10. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 82 locations, $895 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Juno (Fox Searchlight) — 7 locations, $57,849 PTA
2. NEW Atonement (Focus) — 32 locations, $23,202 PTA
3. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $18,497 PTA
4. NEW Dirty Laundry (Code Black Entertainment) — 2 locations, $10,761 PTA
5. The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 9 locations, $7,952 PTA
6. NEW The Golden Compass (New Line) — 3,528 locations, $7,653 PTA
7. NEW The Amateurs (First Look) — 3 locations, $5,996 PTA
8. NEW The Walker (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $5,541 PTA
9. NEW Grace is Gone (MGM/Weinstein) — 4 locations, $3,594 PTA
10. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 82 locations, $3,043 PTA