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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

December 28, 2007

THURSDAY ESTIMATES: 'Treasure' Adds $9.5M for a 7-day Gross of $86.4M; 'Alvin' up 8 percent to $8.6M; 'Alien vs. Predator' Down Another 35 percent; 'Sweeney' No. 9, 'Debaters' No. 12; 'There Will Be Blood' Down but Still Racks Up $28K PTA!

by Steve Mason

THURSDAY NIGHT: Nicolas Cage's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) continued its holiday domination with a $9.52 million Thursday, down 17 percent from the day after Christmas. The sequel about treasure hunter Ben Gates has posted an estimated seven-day total of $86.43 million. Treasure has generated the sixth-best seven-day gross in modern box office history, about $7.5 million stronger than last year'€™s mega-hit Night at the Museum, which went on to a $250 million domestic gross.

ALL-TIME BEST 7-DAY GROSSES FOR DECEMBER RELEASES
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — $150.1 million
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — $123.3 million
3. I Am Legend — $103.2 million
4. Meet the Fockers — $97 million
5. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring — $94 million
6. National Treasure: Book of Secrets — $86.43 million
7. Night at the Museum — $79 million
8. King Kong — $77 million

Amazingly, Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox), made for a modest $60 million, is proving to be a box office monster. It was up 8 percent on Thursday, good for $8.67 million and a second-place finish. That marks three straight days of increased ticket sales, so Alvin is showing no signs of slowing down. The family comedy stars CGI versions of Alvin, Simon and Theodore, and these critters have managed the all-time, third-best two-week performance for any movie with a CGI star, trailing King Kong, but on a par with the original Scooby-Doo and besting beasts like Godzilla and the Hulk.

ALL-TIME BEST 14-DAY GROSSES FOR MOVIES WITH A CGI STAR
1. King Kong — $128.5 million
2. Scooby-Doo — $111.5 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks —
$111.1 million
4. Hulk — $108.7 million
5. Godzilla — $100.6 million
6. Stuart Little — $63.3 million

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) was down for a third straight day, falling to No. 9 with $2.23 million and a $1,788 PTA. It is a film of undisputed brilliance, but it would have benefited from a platform rollout instead of the "€œcash grab"€ of a 1,788 location run. The studio took a "€œbait and switch"€ approach, essentially "€œtricking"€ younger moviegoers into seeing a horror film, which turned out to be a Sondheim musical. The perception of commercial failure, along with the (literally) rivers of blood spilled in the movie may conspire to keep this one out of the Best Picture category (although director Tim Burton and star Johnny Depp seem like locks with plenty of attention in the technical categories as well).

Also down for the third consecutive day was the Oprah Winfrey-produced, Denzel Washington-directed The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM). This inspirational tale sank another 23 percent on Thursday to $1.6 million and a PTA of $1,383 at its 1,164 locations. It seems that, with limited commercial upside, a questionable Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture (Drama) — c'mon, 7 nominees? — and a more lauded Washington performance in American Gangster, Debaters is a non-starter in the Oscar race.

Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) suffered a 16 percent dip from its Wednesday PTA of nearly $34K at two locations, but the searing period drama still impressed with a stunning $28K per. With Daniel Day Lewis giving perhaps his best-ever performance, Blood is a guaranteed arthouse blockbuster. As a bonus, older men seem to love this movie, and that'€™s the key Oscar voting block. Of course, No Country For Old Men (Miramax) has similar appeal, so that may open the Best Picture door for a more female-skewing movie like Atonement.

Two other Oscar contenders got nice bumps in business Thursday with both The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) and Persepolis up 16 percent. Diving Bell scripter Ronald Harwood and cinematographer Janusz Kaminski seem like Oscar nomination locks for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography respectively. Some degree of commercial success could nudge Julian Schnabel more firmly into the Best Director quintet, and it would also help Max von Sydow in the Supporting Actor category. (Although, it seems that the Best Actor race is too crowded with too much pedigree for the remarkable Mathieu Amalric.)

Meanwhile, Thursday'€™s PTA of about $3,000 at seven locations can only help Persepolis for an Oscar nomination quinella of Best Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Feature.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY THURSDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $9.52M, $2,485 PTA [$86.43M cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $8.67M, $2,479 PTA [$111.18 cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $7.57M, $2,091 PTA [$167.32M cume]
4. NEW Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $2.95M, $1,147 PTA [$22.5M cume]
5. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $2.78M, $1,086 PTA [$16.58M cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.57M, $2,576 PTA [$15.16M cume]
7. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.48M, $895 PTA [$7.27M cume]
8. NEW P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $2.42M, $987 PTA [$15.02M cume]
9. NEW Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.23M, $1,788 PTA [$18.46M cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.82M, $820 PTA [$103.8M cume]
11. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.62M, $707 PTA [$54.7M cume]
12. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.6M, $1,383 PTA [$7.3M cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.19M, $450 PTA [$7.44M cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $655,000, $2,141 PTA [$8M  cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $495,000, $516 PTA [$38.8M cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $400,000, $1,061 PTA [$3.5M cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $83,000, $1,169 PTA [$1.1M cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $60,000, $1,429 PTA [$616,000 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $59,000, $3,688 PTA [$281,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $55,937, $27,969 PTA [$123,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $20,667, $2,952 [$76,000 cume]
* NEW Steep (Sony Classics) — $4,905, $289 PTA [$45,000 cume]
* NEW Blonde Ambition (First Look) — $391, $49 PTA [$2,502 cume]

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Posted at 12:06 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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