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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

December 11, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK: Mister I Takes the Elevator ... Back Down to the Bargain Basement

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Welcome to another Tip of the Week. With the disappointing results for The Golden Compass last weekend, you may feel that your slate is doomed from the beginning, especially given the fantasy non-juggernaut's $30-plus price tag. But, with some careful money management, even a $25 million opening weekend from The Golden Compass might not hurt you too badly. I'm here with a list of the 10 best movies priced at $5 or less in December-February leagues, 5 each for both Ultimate Movie Moguls and Box Office Moguls players. Placing a few in your studio might free up some cash to "upgrade" some of your other picks, or perhaps you're still putting together your lineup and just want to find a good way to spend those last few bucks. Either way, this list should (hopefully) be useful to you. Onward!

Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (Dec. 25; $5 Ultimate) is opening against a crowded field, but with an opening weekend figure even half as big as the first AVP installment ($38 million in August 2004), I'd think Moguls with this film on their slates would be happy. It should squeeze out a few Top 5 points, but I don't think it'll get any higher than third place; it simply can't do better than I Am Legend, even in its third week, or National Treasure: Book of Secrets. Still, some contribution is better than none at all, and the following weekend only has one new wide release currently scheduled, so whatever place AVP2 manages to snag in its opening weekend, it might be able to hold (or only drop one slot) the next week. That'd be a bonus, for sure. I'd imagine the IMDb rating will be about the same as it was fpr Alien vs. Predator (5.4), and while that isn't great, it won't singlehandedly kill your chances of winning. If most of your other films have high, 7-8 IMDb scores, there's nothing to worry about. This is one of your best cheap options for box office revenue (plus maybe a few Top 5 points).

The Orphanage (Dec. 28; $3 Ultimate) faces similarly stiff competition for PTA: Persepolis, The Bucket List, There Will Be Blood and Cassandra's Dream. I'm optimistic, however, that this one can sneak onto the leaderboard and grab a few points. Again, since the next weekend is also relatively weak, the top PTA films from the weekend of the Dec. 28 could very well repeat at the top on the first weekend of the new year, and earning PTA points over multiple weeks is absolutely great for a $3 choice. It also has the Pan's Labyrinth factor working for it. It won't be a PTA monster like Labyrinth (which earned 19 PTA points), but is a similar horror/fantasy type movie and, coincidentally, also comes from Spain — and as insensitive as it is to generalize, just the fact that it isn't an American horror film means its prospects for satisfactory to great performance in America's theaters are pretty good.

The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Jan. 11; $2 Ultimate) is a pretty safe bet to replicate the figures of the first Veggie Tales movie, Jonah, back in 2002. That film earned $25 million, although it wouldn't have earned any Top 5 points or PTA points. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything is coming out in January, however, against a considerably weaker field than its predecessor (which contended against the likes of Red Dragon, Sweet Home Alabama and the phenomenon that was My Big Fat Greek Wedding). 27 Dresses will likely take the top spot at the box office, but the rest has a lot to do with whether the big Christmas movies are still hanging around in their third/fourth weeks. That's entirely possible, but I think that the veggies have a chance at third place on opening weekend, eking it out over National Treasure: Book of Secrets. Regardless, at least one Top 5 point is highly probable. Some PTA wouldn't even be too far-fetched; Jonah came in sixth in PTA on its opening weekend (not counting re-issues and IMAX). So, again, the fact that this is being released in January seems to be working in its favor.

Strange Wilderness (Feb. 1; $4 Ultimate) is opening on a weekend where no less than FIVE other movies are currently scheduled for wide release (Over Her Dead Body, Postal, The Eye, Charlie Bartlett and, yes, I'm counting Hannah Montana's 3D concert event). It has its work cut out for it, to be sure. Part of me worries that it will be the next Grandma's Boy ($6 million total gross), and as a Happy Madison production being released in the dead of winter, some of that worry may be justified, because there's two similarities right there. I think, however, that Steve Zahn, Justin Long, and Jonah Hill provide a more promising outlook at the box office than the Grandma's Boy trio of Kevin Nealon, Nick Swardson, and ... Jonah Hill (who remembered that?!). And nobody expected much out of writer and director Fred Wolf's last project, Without a Paddle (on which Wolf received story credit) either, and it ended up with $58 million (and would have earned 14 Top 5 points!) It's not a sure thing (at least not yet), but this is definitely one to watch out for.

Another film that was a big surprise at the box office is Step Up, which made $65 million in 2006. With such rousing success, it's no wonder that a sequel is on the table. Step Up 2 the Streets (Feb. 14; $2 Ultimate) has neither of the original stars returning, but the premise is the same: romantic sparks fly between two dancers from different social backgrounds. I don't really understand why, but dance movies (except for the recent Feel the Noise) always fare better at the box office than you'd think they would — Stomp the Yard is another example. And the romantic sparks makes the Valentine's Day release date very appropriate. The first movie had a decent user rating (5.9), and I think this one will be a little lower, but certainly nothing that will damage your slate too badly. At least it's not going the way of Bring It On Again (straight to DVD and a putrid 3.8 IMDb rating). Although, it very well could — if Three-Step Up Drop: Tight End Tango and Step Up 4 Kids with Cancer show up on the release schedule, then you'll know it has. Fantasy Moguls predicts Step Up 2 the Streets will make $23 million; I think that's spot on. That's no blockbuster, but even that much box office from a $2 pick is not too shabby by any means.

Some of these cheap Ultimate picks have equally small price tags in Box Office leagues, but in the interest of variety, I have five entirely different movies for Box Office players:

Even though Feb. 1 is a crowded weekend, I think it was a smart choice for MGM to move Charlie Bartlett (Feb. 1; $4 Box Office) from August, where it would have opened against a still-strong The Simpsons Movie and The Bourne Ultimatum, with Rush Hour 3 waiting in the wings. Admittedly, the box-office prospects might be slightly dimmer given the R rating, but critics seem to like it so far. It's at 89 percent Fresh on RottenTomatoes, and it carries an 8.1 IMDb rating. It also has rising star Anton Yelchin (who has the role of Pavel Chekhov in next winter's Star Trek). The concept of the movie: rich kid Charlie gets expelled from his private school and has to attend public school, where he eventually becomes the self-appointed psychiatrist and pharmacist for all the students. It's intriguing, and that's all it may be to a lot of people: "Eh, looks kind of interesting. I might see that." However, even slightly intriguing might be good for $15 million. It looks like the definition of a dump (and knowing MGM/Weinstein's history, the release date may move again), but even a dump can be good for something.

Next is another film that was pushed back; it was initially set to open Nov. 30. Instead, Pathology (Feb. 8; $5 Box Office) was moved to the doldrums of February. It almost looks like a poor man's version of CSI: The Movie. And since CSI still captures top TV ratings when it airs, there's still a market for a crime thriller examining the details of death. In the movie, a group of pathologists enter into a twisted game to see which of them can commit the perfect murder, one where even a fellow pathologist can't tell that the person has been murdered. Fantasy Moguls projects $22 million overall, and that may be stretching it, but if Awake can pull down $8 million in a week, so can Pathology. One thing going against it is its lack of big-name actors, but Milo Ventimiglia is well-known enough from Heroes (and Gilmore Girls, I suppose), and he did a fine job in Rocky Balboa. And Michael Weston has a guest spot on Scrubs, and also The Last Kiss and Garden State, to his credit. (Think he's friends with Zach Braff?) Again, it's far from a sure thing, but at only $5, you can afford to take some chances, and it won't hurt TOO much if it doesn't work out.

Before Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns arrives in March, as I mentioned last week, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Feb. 8; $5 Box Office) will sample Perry's same demographic. For some reason, it brings Barbershop to mind, not simply because Cedric the Entertainer is in both movies, but because of the ensemble cast as a whole. (And because of its release date in a generally dead time of year; Barbershop came out in September of 2002.) Roscoe Jenkins stars Martin Lawrence, James Earl Jones, Michael Clarke Duncan, Mike Epps and the aforementioned The Entertainer, which means (and again, I don't mean to be insensitive in generalizing) that African-Americans could turn out en masse that opening weekend. It'd be much like the recent performance of This Chistmas, only this time, don't be surprised. Fantasy Moguls says $21 million, but I think it will go higher. Barbershop opened to $20 million en route to $70 million. I'm not saying Roscoe Jenkins will equal that, but a $10-15 million opening and $25 million by the end of February isn't out of the question.

February is a truly crowded month. Diary of the Dead (Feb. 15; $2 Box Office) has to compete with FOUR other new wide releases on its opening weekend (Jumper, Definitely Maybe, Step Up 2 the Streets and The Spiderwick Chronicles). On the other hand, George A. Romero's last movie, Land of the Dead, held its own against Bewitched and Herbie: Fully Loaded (and the still-holding-strong Batman Begins and Mr. & Mrs. Smith) in June 2005, opening in fifth place with $10 million. And Diary of the Dead certainly provides counter-programming to the ultra-sweet romantic movies you'd expect around Valentine's Day. (Think The Devil Wears Prada vs. Superman Returns, only in reverse.) It may not put up another $10 million opening weekend, but Romero does have a bit of a following, so I think the projected $15 million is certainly possible as a full-run number. It's also worth noting that, while Romero is no Quentin Tarantino, he could be aiming for a Kill Bill effect here; IMDb lists a presently untitled Diary of the Dead sequel for 2009. Regardless, though, I'll take $15 million for $2 every time.

Last but not least comes The Other Boleyn Girl (Feb. 29; $3 Box Office). Scarlett Johansson and Natalie Portman in the same movie — what's not to like? (I'll tell you what, or rather who: Eric Bana. Fine actor, but he's not doing it for me as a king. Play the "re-cast Henry VIII" game with your friends; it's fun! I'll start: Clive Owen.) Fantasy Moguls predicts $29 million, but that definitely won't happen in one weekend. (Or how about Mr. Fantastic, Ioan Gruffudd?) It might get there as we roll into March, but you'll have to wait 'til January-March FM leagues to reap those benefits. (Joaquin Phoenix, to complete the all-Yank lead-casting.) Still, an opening weekend better than that of Elizabeth: The Golden Age ($6.2 million) is very likely; a nice last final weekend boost of $10 million seems about right. (Kenneth Branagh could probably use a fat paycheck after Sleuth. Or, speaking of, what about Jude Law?) Historical movies like this can be a tough sell, but people seem to like hearing about/watching Henry VIII at the moment — the Showtime TV series The Tudors won two Emmys this year. (There's another possibility: Jonathan Rhys Meyers.) Admittedly, there are only three $3 films to choose from, but I'd say that this one's clearly the best of them. (Wait, wait: Christian Bale!)

I'd like to take a moment here to give my best wishes to the storied Nicodemus. Family tribulations are a heart-wrenching thing, and he has my deepest sympathy. His insight, support and kindly nature will be missed, but there are certainly people who need it more than we of the Fantaverse do, and it's completely understandable that they should come before us.

Until next week, good luck!

Mister Informative also thinks that Patrick Swayze and his square jaw could do the job. Or maybe that's just because he saw Ghost on AMC the other night and is remembering that one scene where P-Diddy yowls out "I am Henry VIII, I am" to Demi Moore. Send your own suggestions to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Posted at 08:15 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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