The large drop of 55 percent for Fox's schlocky Alien vs. Predator: Requiem makes sense. The movie wasn't screened for critics and fanboy zeal can only get you so far. The sequel to the 2004 original, fell from about $9.5 million on Christmas Day to $4.28 million on Wednesday.

Harder to explain is the fact that The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) dropped a staggering 63 percent from Christmas Day. The Rob Reiner-directed oldster comedy delivered a $10,000-plus PTA on Tuesday for a $162,000 haul at its 16 locations. Today, it fell to $59,881 for a PTA of $3,743. Can it be that older boomers all dragged their families to see Bucket List on opening day, and interest in the film is limited to the older set? I suspect that's the reason for the Wednesday plummet in ticket sales. Then there’s Oprah Winfrey's The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM), which fell 42 percent from its $3.6 million opening day. The fact that Oprah produced the movie and has her name on it has undoubtedly frontloaded the business. We'll see whether Debaters, directed by and starring Denzel Washington, has legs Thursday through Sunday.

Since Christmas 2002, Bucket List and AVP: Requiem and have suffered the two biggest day-after-Christmas drops on record, and Denzel's Debaters isn't far behind. It doesn't bode well moving forward for these titles.

BIGGEST DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS PERCENTAGE DROPS SINCE 2002
1. 2007 — The Bucket List, 16 locations, down 63 percent (Estimate)
2. 2007 — Alien vs. Predator: Requiem, 2,563 locations, down 55 percent (Estimate)
3. 2006 — Black Christmas, 1,278 locations, down 47 percent
4. (Tie) 2007 — The Great Debaters, 1,164 locations, down 42 percent (Estimate)
4. (Tie) 2006 — Curse of the Golden Flower, 60 locations, down 42 percent
6. 2005 — The Producers, 975 locations, down 37 percent
7. 2005 — King Kong, 3,576 locations, down 34 percent
8. 2006 — Dreamgirls, 852 locations, down 33 percent
9. 2006 — The Painted Veil, 4 locations, down 32 percent
10. 2006 — Letters From Iwo Jima, 5 locations, down 31 percent

In other Wednesday business, Will Smith and I Am Legend (Warner Bros) held off 20th Century Fox's Alvin $8.8 million to $8 million, for second place behind Book of Secrets. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) grabbed another $3.6 million on Wednesday, and the Tom Hanks political comedy has now filibustered a respectable $19.5 million in its first six days of release.

P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) benefited from the day after Christmas, which is often kind to chick flicks. The Hilary Swank/Gerard Butler tearjerker was No. 6 on Wednesday, with an estimated $3.33 million for a new cume of $13.38 million. Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) fell 18 percent to just shy of $2.6 million, and it has now sliced its way to $16.23 million since Friday.

It's no surprise that Paul Thomas Anderson's Golden Globe nominated There Will Be Blood has opened huge at its two locations. The film, which has made Daniel Day-Lewis the betting favorite for the Best Actor Oscar, generated a massive $33,296 PTA for a total take of $66,592. This can only help awards prospects for Best Picture, along with the individual awards hopes of Anderson and Day-Lewis.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $11.47 million, $2,994 PTA [$76.91 million cume]
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $8.8 million, $2,432 PTA [$159.75 million cume]
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $8.03 million, $2,295 PTA [$102.5 million cume]
4. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $4.28 million, $1,671 PTA [$13.79 million cume]
5. NEW Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $3.6 million, $1,399 PTA [$19.55 million cume]
6. NEW P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $3.33 million, $1,359 PTA [$13.38 million cume]
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.79 million, $2,800 PTA [$12.59 million cume]
8. NEW Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.59 million, $2,079 PTA [$16.23 million cume]
9. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.4 million, $869 PTA [$4.79 million cume]
10. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $2.09 million, $1,796 PTA [$5.69 million cume]
11. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $2.04 million, $904 PTA [$53.4 million cume]
12. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.61 million, $725 PTA [$102 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.19 million, $450 PTA [$7.44 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $660,000, $2,157 PTA [$7.37 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $530,000, $552 PTA [$38.3 million cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $430,000, $1,141 PTA [$3 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $83,000, $1,169 PTA [$1 million cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $66,592, $33,296 PTA [$66,592 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $59,881, $3,743 PTA [$222,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $50,400, $1,200 PTA [$556,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $17,817, $2,545 [$55,000 cume]
* NEW Steep (Sony Classics) — $4,628, $272 PTA [$39,834 cume]
* NEW Blonde Ambition (First Look) — $334, $42 PTA [$2,111 cume]

TUESDAY NIGHT: As is tradition, Americans opened Christmas presents and then flooded the nation's multiplexes. National Treasure: Book of Secrets easily won the day, and in so doing may have posted the second-best all-time single day Christmas gross with an estimated $14.75 million.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 SINGLE DAY CHRISTMAS GROSSES
1. Meet the Fockers — $19.5 million
2. National Treasure: Book of Secrets — $14.75 million (Estimate)
3. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — $13.9 million
4. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — $12.3 million
5. Night at the Museum — $11.7 million

With an adjusted five-day gross of $68.1 million, the latest installment in Nic Cage's Treasure franchise has delivered the all-time 13th-best opening five-day gross of any film in box-office history. (Note that I Am Legend at No. 6, American Gangster at No. 18 and Alvin and the Chipmunks at No. 19 all appear on this list.)

ALL-TIME TOP 5-DAY GROSSES FOR FILMS RELEASED DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — $137.6 million
2. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire — $119.7 million
3. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone — $104.5 million
4. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — $102 million
5. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets — $98.4 million
6. I Am Legend — $91.1 million
7. The Matrix: Revolutions — $83.7 million
8. The Incredibles — $77.4 million
9. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring — $75.1 million
10. The Chronicles of Narnia — $74.1 million
11. Meet the Fockers — $70.5 million
12. Monsters, Inc. — $70.3 million
13. National Treasure: Book of Secrets — $68.1 million (Estimate)
14. King Kong — $66.1 million
15. How the Grinch Stole Christmas — $63.5 million
16. 8 Mile — $60.2 million
17. Die Another Day — $55.3 million
18. American Gangster — $50.6 million
19. Alvin and the Chipmunks — $49.4 million
20. Casino Royale — $49.1 million

The popcorn action scarefest, Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (Fox) proved to be just the ticket, especially for Under 25 Males, and I am estimating an opening day take of $9.48 million, making it the all-time third-best single day Christmas opening.

ALL-TIME TOP SINGLE DAY CHRISTMAS OPENING DAY GROSSES
1. Ali — $10.2 million
2. Catch Me If You Can — $9.8 million
3. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $9.48 million (Estimate)
4. Patch Adams — $8 million
5. Cheaper By the Dozen — $7.8 million

I Am Legend is just behind AvP on Christmas Day, with about $8.85 million, which translates to an excellent five-day of $47.15 million. Alvin and the Chipmunks continued strong in fourth place for Christmas Day with $6.66 million and on the five-day scorecard with $39.46 million. Universal's Charlie Wilson's War, featuring what may be Phillip Seymour Hoffman's best performance ever, had its best day yet with $4.16 million on the holiday. The Aaron Sorkin-written, Mike Nichols-directed film is political, yet entertaining, and will finish the five-day with a respectable $15.82 million.

Meanwhile, Denzel Washington's well-reviewed, Golden Globe-nominated The Great Debaters appears to have beaten Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street on Tuesday $3.49 million to $2.82 million. The Johnny Depp/Helena Bonham Carter musical directed by Tim Burton finishes the five-day with $13.92 million, impressive given the unusual nature of the project.

Juno (Fox Searchlight) expanded to just under 1,000 screens and the Golden Globe-nominated comedy generated $2.31 million on Christmas Day, with a healthy PTA of $2,325. With breakthrough performances for Ellen Page, Jennifer Garner and Jason Bateman, Juno grabbed $6.27 million for the five-day, a solid No. 11 finish.

P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) continued to underperform with $1.92 million Tuesday, and Walk Hard was even softer with $1.29 million, so the only other major story is the performance of Rob Reiner's The Bucket List. With an oldster cast including Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, Bucket is an unqualified specialty hit with a $10,812 PTA at its 16 locations on Christmas Day.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $14.75M, $2,639 PTA [$68.1M cume]
2. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $9.48M, $3,700 PTA [$9.48M cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $8.85M, $2,445 PTA [$151.1M cume]
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $6.66M, $1,905 PTA [$95.3M cume]
5. NEW Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $4.16M, $1,617 PTA [$15.82M cume]
6. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $3.49M, $3,000 PTA [$3.49M cume]
7. NEW Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.82M, $2,261 PTA [$13.29M cume]
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.31M, $2,325 PTA [$9.2M cume]
9. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.25M, $810 PTA [$2.25M cume]
10. NEW P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $1.92M, $786 PTA [$9.1M cume]
11. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.38M, $611 PTA [$50.8M cume]
12. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.29M, $490 PTA [$5.99M cume]
13. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.18M, $534 PTA [$100.5M cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $620,000, $2,026 PTA [$6.6M cume]
15. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $530,000, $1,406 PTA [$2.6M cume]
* No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $440,000, $458 PTA [$37.1M cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $173,000, $10,812 PTA [$170,000 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $130,000, $1,831 PTA [$954,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $60,000, $1,429 PTA [$505,639 cume]
* NEW Steep (Sony Classics) — $5,509, $324 PTA [$35,206 cume]
* NEW Blonde Ambition (First Look) — $283, $35 PTA [$1,777 cume]
* NEW Flakes (IFC Films) — $34, $34 PTA [$289 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS 5-DAY ESTIMATES
(Friday through Christmas Day)
1. NEW National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $68.1M, $17,773 PTA [$68.1M cume]
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $47.15M, $13,025 PTA [$151.1M cume]
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $39.46M, $11,279 PTA [$95.3M cume]
5. NEW Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $15.82M, $6,147 PTA [$15.82M cume]
6. NEW Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $13.29M, $10,647 PTA [$13.29M cume]
7. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $9.48M, $3,700 PTA [$9.48M cume]
8. NEW P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $9.15M, $3,732 PTA [$9.15M cume]
9. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $6.38M, $2,820 PTA [$50.8M cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $6.3M, $2,832 PTA [$100.5M cume]
11. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $6.27M, $6,287 PTA [$9.27M cume]
12. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $5.99M, $2,263 PTA [$5.99M cume]
13. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $3.49M, $3,000 PTA [$3.49M cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $2.88M, $9,430 PTA [$6.6M cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2.69M, $2,807 PTA [$37.1M cume]
* NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.25M, $810 PTA [$2.25M cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.98M, $5,260 PTA [$2.6M cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $377,000, $5,311 PTA [$954,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $215,000, $5,119 PTA [$505,639 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $173,000, $10,812 PTA [$170,000 cume]
* NEW Steep (Sony Classics) — $35,206, $2,071 PTA [$35,206 cume]
* NEW Blonde Ambition (First Look) — $1,777, $222 PTA [$1,777 cume]
* NEW Flakes (IFC Films) — $289, $289 PTA [$289 cume]