It is an absolute photo finish for No. 2 on Saturday. My early estimate is that I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) wins by a nose with $6.96 million followed by Juno (Fox Searchlight) with $6.82 million and Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) with $6.81 million, but it's anybody's guess which picture comes out ahead when the actuals are released on Monday. In the three-day race, it looks as though Searchlight may have pulled off the upset.

The awards caliber, critically-hailed comedy Juno, written by former exotic dancer Diablo Cody and starring surefire Best Actress nominee Ellen Page, should have a stronger Sunday than Legend and Alvin, and finish with a monstrous $16.6 million weekend in its expansion to 1,925 locations. I expect the Will Smith blockbuster to finish third with an estimated $16.34 million and a new domestic cume of $228.68 million. Meanwhile, Alvin is tailing off a bit, but it should still reach $15.94 million for the three-day. It should be pointed out that, with a relatively modest budget of $60 million, Fox's CGI critters have reached $176.68 million domestic and $206.7 million worldwide.

Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) is demonstrating real potency in its expansion to 51 locations. Featuring a searing performance from Oscar winner Daniel Day Lewis, Blood grabbed another $490,000 on Saturday for a $9,608 Per Theatre Average. It'll wrap up the weekend with $1.26 million and a spectacular $24,843 three-day PTA.

Last Saturday, I wrote about the way box office might influence Oscar voters in the Best Picture category. Tonight, a breakdown of how box office my impact the Best Actor and Best Actress races. For each of the contenders, I've included the reported budget, domestic cume and international box office numbers.

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF FILMS FEATURING POSSIBLE BEST ACTOR NOMINEES
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
$100 million reported budget
$129.2 million domestic sales, $63.2 million international sales
Net: $92.4 million
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
$25 million reported budget
$39.1 million domestic sales, $31.1 million international sales
Net: $45.2 million
James McAvoy, Atonement
$30 million reported budget
$19.2 million domestic sales, $35.8 million international sales
Net: $25 million
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men
$25 million reported budget
$44.8 million domestic sales, $1 million international sales
Net: $20.8 million
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
$25 million reported budget
$17.2 million domestic sales, $27.6 million international sales
Net: $19.8 million
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
$20 million reported budget
$17.1 million domestic sales, $3.1 million international sales
Net: $200,000
Sam Riley, Control
$6.6 million reported budget
$850,000 domestic sales, $4.8 million international sales
Net: -$95,000
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
$800,000 reported budget
$510,000 domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$290,000
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
$5 million reported budget
$2.57 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$2.43 million
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
$13 million reported budget
$5.7 million domestic sales, $50,000 international sales
Net: -$7.25 million
Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
$13 million reported budget
$1.44 million domestic sales, $2.8 million international sales
Net: -$8.76 million
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
$23 million reported budget
$6.7 million domestic sales, $6.4 million international sales
Net: -$9.9 million
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
$50 million reported budget
$38.72 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$11.28 million
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
$75 million reported budget
$52.9 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$22.1 million
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
$25 million reported budget
$1.77 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$23.23 million

ANALYSIS: Obviously, Daniel Day Lewis and There Will Be Blood are just getting started. This movie will be in the black long before final Oscar ballots are due. Charlie Wilson's War has recovered from its slow start, but it remains a disappointment. The failure of In the Valley of Elah makes any discussion of Tommy Lee Jones a virtual non-starter. The success of American Gangster makes Denzel Washington tough to ignore (but I think the Academy will this time), and Atonement's James McAvoy seems like a better shot when international box office is included (the film is already very profitable). Depp's Sweeney Todd only added $5.64 million over the weekend, bringing its domestic take to $38.72 million.

My hunch is that Daniel Day Lewis, Clooney and McAvoy are Best Actor nomination locks with the remaining two nominees coming from a group of Depp, Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises), Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild), Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages).

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF FILMS FEATURING POSSIBLE BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES
Amy Adams, Enchanted
$35 million reported budget
$119.6 million domestic sales, $110.6 million international sales
Net: $199.4 million
Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray
$75 million reported budget
$119 million domestic sales, $81 million international sales
Net: $125 million
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
$30 million reported budget
$10 million domestic sales, $71.6 million international sales
Net: $51.6 million
Ellen Page, Juno
$2.5 million reported budget
$52.41 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: $49.91 million
Keira Knightley, Atonement
$30 million reported budget
$19.2 million domestic sales, $35.8 million international sales
Net: $25 million
Keri Russell, Waitress
$5 million reported budget
$19 million domestic sales, $3 million international sales
Net: $17 million
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
$15 million reported budget
$9 million domestic sales, $10 million international sales
Net: $4 million
Julie Christie, Away From Her
$4 million reported budget
$4.5 million domestic sales, $2.6 international sales
Net: $3.1 million
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
$70 million reported budget
$37 million domestic sales, $33 million international sales
Net: $0
Laura Linney, The Savages
$5 million reported budget
$2.57 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$2.43 million
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
$55 million reported budget
$16 million domestic sales, $36 million international sales
Net: -$3 million
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
$50 million reported budget
$38.72 million domestic sales, $0 international sales
Net: -$11.28 million

ANALYSIS: These films are arranged from the highest net gross to the lowest. Sweeney Todd's soft performance may handicap Helena Bonham Carter, but she's been nominated before and the degree of difficulty for her Mrs. Lovett role is very high. I suspect that any prospect of a nomination for Jodie Foster for The Brave One is moot given the film's disastrous domestic performance, and the second time as Elizabeth was not a box office charm for Cate Blanchett.

Look at the hits for these women with lots of profitable pictures. Julie Christie (Away From Her), Marion Cotillard's performance as Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose ($50 million-plus in the black!), Juno's Page and Keira Knightley (Atonement) seem locked in. The fifth slot should go to either Helena Bonham Carter, Amy Adams (Enchanted) or Angelina Jolie, whose A Mighty Heart more than made back its budget despite a disappointing domestic run.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $8.61 million, $2,355 PTA [$166 million cume]
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $6.96 million, $1,910 PTA [$224.5 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $6.82 million, $3,546 PTA [$47.8 million cume]
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $6.81 million, $1,968 PTA [$172.1 million cume]
5. NEW One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $5.09 million, $2,275 PTA [$10.29 million cume]
6. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $3.6 million, $1,389 PTA [$50.6 million cume]
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $3.44 million, $1,394 PTA [$37.4 million cume]
8. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.58 million, $932 PTA [$29 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.36 million, $1,892 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $2.1 million, $3,604 PTA [$17.6 million cume]
11. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.89M, $1,468 PTA [$20.9 million cume]
12. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $1.81 million, $693 PTA [$35.7 million cume]
13. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.52 million, $791 PTA [$118.7 million cume]
14. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.2 million, $748 PTA [$64.8 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $800,000, $977 PTA [$44.2 million cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $735,000, $1,914 PTA [$8.2 million cume]
17. Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $730,000, $358 PTA [$16.8 million cume]
18. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $490,000, $9,608 PTA [$1.3 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $210,000, $1,909 PTA [$2.4 million cume]
* The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $163,000, $2,362 PTA [$695,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $161,000, $2,825 PTA [$1.3 million cume]
* The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $135,000, $8,438 PTA [$1.1 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $38,000, $6,333 [$297,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $20.81 million, $5,534 PTA [$171.6 million cume]
2. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $16.6 million, $8,627 PTA [$52.4 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $16.34 million, $4,482 PTA [$228.6 million cume]
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $15.94 million, $4,606 PTA [$176.6 million cume]
5. NEW One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $13.04 million, $5,825 PTA [$13.04 million cume]
6. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $8.49 million, $3,276 PTA [$52.9 million cume]
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $8.09 million, $3,275 PTA [$39.4 million cume]
8. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $6.06 million, $2,185 PTA [$30.6 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $5.64 million, $4,522 PTA [$38.7 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $5.2 million, $8,934 PTA [$19.2 million cume]
11. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $4.43M, $3,441 PTA [$22.2 million cume]
12. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $4.14 million, $1,583 PTA [$36.7 million cume]
13. Enchanted (Disney) — $3.7 million, $1,919 PTA [$119.7 million cume]
14. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $2.81 million, $1,746 PTA [$65.6 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.87 million, $2,283 PTA [$44.8 million cume]
16. Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.76 million, $866 PTA [$17.2 million cume]
17. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.73 million, $4,517 PTA [$8.7 million cume]
18. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.26 million, $24,843 PTA [$1.77 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $490,500, $4,459 PTA [$2.57 million cume]
* The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $391,100, $5,668 PTA [$809,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $366,750, $6,434 PTA [$1.44 million cume]
* The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $299,750, $18,734 PTA [$1.28 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $86,600, $14,433 [$324,000 cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) will officially become Nicolas Cage's biggest hit ever some time next week. The continuing adventures of treasure hunter Benjamin Franklin Gates scooped up another $6.1 million on Friday, lifting the film's domestic cume to $156.9 million. The holiday blockbuster will likely deliver a weekend haul of $18.9 million, more than enough to win the three-day frame. By Wednesday or so, Book of Secrets will pass its predecessor for a new Cage best.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 NICOLAS CAGE MOVIES
1. National Treasure — $173 million
2. National Treasure: Book of Secrets — $169.7 million (Estimate)
3. The Rock — $134 million
4. Ghost Rider — $115.8 million
5. Face/Off — $112.2 million

The No. 2 movie on Friday is the low-budget Warner Bros. horror pic One Missed Call, which seized a better-than-expected $5.2 million. Despite its lack of star power, OMC has surprised, largely because it is the only new wide release, and it has posted the all-time fifth-best opening day for a January horror release.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR JANUARY HORROR FILMS
1. Underworld: Evolution — $10.2 million
2. White Noise — $8.9 million
3. Hostel — $7.6 million
4. Final Destination 2 — $5.7 million
5. One Missed Call — $5.2 million (Estimate)

OMC will be very frontloaded, and it will likely slump to No. 5 for the weekend, with an estimated $13.5 million. Still, that is far stronger than last year's January horror offerings The Hitcher ($7.8 million opening) and Primeval ($6 million opening).

Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox), made for a modest $60 million, continues to roll. Its $4.5 million Friday (No. 5 for the day) should translate to a $16 million three-day, good for a second-place weekend finish, and a new cume of $176.7 million. The Fox family comedy stars CGI versions of Alvin, Simon and Theodore, and these critters have managed the all-time second-best performance for any movie with a CGI star or stars, trailing only King Kong.

ALL-TIME BEST GROSSING MOVIES WITH A CGI STAR OR STARS
1. King Kong — $218 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks — $176.7 million (Estimate)
3. Scooby-Doo — $153.2 million
4. Stuart Little — $140 million
5. Godzilla — $136.3 million

Juno (Fox Searchlight) expanded to 1,925 screens on Friday and the Golden Globe-nominated comedy generated $4.95 million with a healthy PTA of $2,571. With breakthrough performances for Ellen Page, Jennifer Garner and Jason Bateman, Juno is headed for an excellent third-place weekend finish with $15.35 million, bringing its new cume to $51.1 million. Written by former exotic dancer Diablo Cody and directed by Jason Reitman, Juno will be the third-best grossing Fox Searchlight title of all time by Monday morning.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 FOX SEARCHLIGHT RELEASES
1. Sideways — $71.5 million
2. Little Miss Sunshine — $59.8 million
3. Juno — $51.1 million (Estimate)
4. The Full Monty — $49.5 million
5. 28 Days Later — $45 million

The other major story of the weekend is the wildly successful expansion of Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage). Adding 49 screens Friday, the searing period drama still impressed with a stunning $5,600-plus PTA. With Daniel Day Lewis giving perhaps his best-ever performance, Blood is an arthouse blockbuster, and it's headed for an estimated weekend of just over $1 million and a three-day PTA of $21,000 or so.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $6.1 million, $1,621 PTA [$156.9 million cume]
2. NEW One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $5.2 million, $2,321 PTA [$5.2 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $5.05 million, $1,384 PTA [$217.38 million cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.95 million, $2,571 PTA [$40.7 million cume]
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $4.51 million, $1,303 PTA [$165.2 million cume]
6. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $2.51 million, $1,019 PTA [$33.8 million cume]
7. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $2.43 million, $939 PTA [$46.8 million cume]
8. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $1.84 million, $664 PTA [$26.4 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.75 million, $1,401 PTA [$34.8 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $1.4 million, $2,406 PTA [$15.5 million cume]
11. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (20th Century Fox) — $1.31 million, $504 PTA [$33.8 million cume]
12. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.23M, $956 PTA [$19 million cume]
13. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.18 million, $612 PTA [$117.1 million cume]
14. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $780,000, $484 PTA [$63.5 million cume]
15. Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $615,000, $301 PTA [$16 million cume]
* No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $535,000, $653 PTA [$43.4 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $445,000, $1,159 PTA [$7.4 million cume]
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $290,000, $5,686 PTA [$798,000 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $123,000, $1,118 PTA [$2.2 million cume]
* The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $114,000, $1,652 PTA [$531,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $85,000, $1,491 PTA [$1.1 million cume]
* The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $77,000, $4,813 PTA [$1 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $22,000, $3,667 [$259,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $18.9 million, $5,027 PTA [$169.7 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $16.01 million, $4,625 PTA [$176.7 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $15.35 million, $7,974 PTA [$51.1 million cume]
4. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $14.9 million, $4,084 PTA [$227.2 million cume]
5. NEW One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $13.52 million, $6,036 PTA [$13.52 million cume]
6. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $8.39 million, $3,238 PTA [$52.8 million cume]
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $8.05 million, $3,260 PTA [$39.4 million cume]
8. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $6.08 million, $2,191 PTA [$30.6 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $5.25 million, $4,203 PTA [$38.3 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $5.11 million, $8,781 PTA [$19.2 million cume]
11. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $4.31M, $3,346 PTA [$22 million cume]
12. Enchanted (Disney) — $4.02 million, $2,082 PTA [$120 million cume]
13. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (20th Century Fox) — $3.88 million, $1,486 PTA [$36.4 million cume]
14. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $2.69 million, $1,670 PTA [$65.4 million cume]
15. Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.9 million, $934 PTA [$17.3 million cume]
* No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.79 million, $2,188 PTA [$44.7 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.64 million, $4,288 PTA [$8.6 million cume]
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.08 million, $21,324 PTA [$1.6 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $450,000, $4,091 PTA [$2.5 million cume]
* The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $405,000, $5,870 PTA [$822,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $315,000, $5,526 PTA [$1.4 million cume]
* The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $274,000, $17,125 PTA [$1.25 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $80,000, $13,333 [$317,000 cume]