OSCAR PREDICTIONS: 'Into the Wild,' 'Atonement' and 'Diving Bell' to Make Best Picture Cut?
by Steve Mason
UPDATE: How did Fantasy Moguls's Resident Numbers Man and Awards Guru do at predicting the Academy Award nominations in major categories? We've tallied his results in each category, along with a running average to keep track of his overall peformance. Scroll down to see the results.
TUESDAY NIGHT: After much deliberation, I've arrived at my forecast for Tuesday's Oscar nominations. Among the surprises that I'm calling for are better-than-expected performances for Atonement, Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. I also think that both Emile Hirsch and Ryan Gosling will break through, as well as Max Von Sydow and Jennifer Garner in the Supporting categories.
Here are my predictions for the nominees that will be announced in major categories early Tuesday morning:
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Into the Wild
Juno
This Category — 4 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .800
Mase's Misses — Michael Clayton
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement
This Category — 3 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .700
Mase's Misses — Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Jason Reitman, Juno
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
This Category — 3 out of 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .667
Mase's Misses — Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
This Category — 3 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .650
Mase's Misses — Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Laura Linney, The Savages
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
This Category — 4 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .668
Mase's Misses — Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Jennifer Garner, Juno
This Category — 3 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .667
Mase's Misses — Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
This Category — 5 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .714
Mase's Misses — None (Nice!)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
This Category — 4 for 5
Overall "Batting Average" — .725
Mase's Misses — Sarah Polley, Away From Her
OVERALL — 29 for 40
FINAL "BATTING AVERAGE" — .725
I like your Best Picture nominations Mase. I'm hoping that's how it turns out, but some people are pushing Michael Clayton and The Diving Bell And The Butterfly over Into The Wild and Atonement. I think its because of the latter two both accruing PGA and DGA noms. I hope you're right though, especially with Juno. I'll be especially disappointed if it misses out...
Posted by: annyonggob888 | January 22, 2008 at 12:18 AM
Sorry, I meant the former two accruing the PGA and DGA noms (Michael Clayton and Diving Bell)
Posted by: annyonggob888 | January 22, 2008 at 12:25 AM
Well, they're out. And Into the Wild was sadly snubbed, besides Hal Holbrook's performance. And what's with Ruby Dee for American Gangster? She's in it for about 5 minutes and hits the same note over and over. And can anyone tell me why Michael Clayton is deserving of any Oscar noms? I mean, I didn't see it as it looked so generic, but was it more than that?
Posted by: numbersix_99 | January 22, 2008 at 06:14 AM
Well, Six, honestly Michael Clayton was more than just generic. I have yet to see "Into The Wild", and of course "Zodiac" was still the most deserving film of the year (not a single nom !!!!), but "Michael Clayton", as much as I didn't expect much from it, is an excellent film. Not just another "lawyer fighting for justice" type of film. Ambitious in terms of directing and writing, and featuring some of the best performances of the year. So I'd say it deserves the nominations.
Posted by: Chienfantome | January 22, 2008 at 07:06 AM
good point Chien, I completely forgot about 'Zodiac'. It deserved a direction nom at the least, and it had a great supporting cast
Posted by: numbersix_99 | January 22, 2008 at 08:37 AM
Not bad - 30 out of 40. Looks like Michael Clayton featured more heavily than expected. Atonement featured less then expected.
Posted by: The J Man | January 22, 2008 at 07:54 PM
i kind of feel bad for keira knightley for not picking up a nod for atonement, i thought she turned in....well, not quite a stunner like daniel day-lewis for 'Blood', but an impressive performance nonetheless....in fact, if there's any statuette that's close to a lock, it'll have to be DD-Lewis for Best Actor....what a performance!! i'll go on a hunger strike if he misses out....well, i won't, but you get my point.... :D
Posted by: ashkul | January 22, 2008 at 09:59 PM