ULTIMATE MOVIE MOGULS BARGAINS

It certainly won't set the turnstiles ablaze, but Teeth (Jan. 18; $3) is being released on only 5 screens this weekend, and it was a Sundance favorite last year. One iffy factor is that Roadside Attractions (who've brought semi-successes Amazing Grace and Bella to theaters in the past year) is distributing, but the weekend is not exactly a bloodbath, as far as PTA is concerned. I don't think it'll take the top spot, but a few PTA points certainly aren't out of the question, especially given that Cassandra's Dream opens on a comparatively large 120 screens. (That's down from the planned 300 a few weeks ago. There Will Be Blood expands to 375, but given that it has 15 PTA points already — in 3 weeks, no less — I think it will probably squeeze out a few more.) The IMDb score for Teeth sits currently at 5.9 with almost 450 votes, so that's unlikely to change drastically, but a 6.0 IMDb rating and a few PTA points is pretty golden for a $3 pick, no?

The best sub-$5 pick of the new season is, without question, Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Feb. 1; $4). Even though it's supposed to be in theaters for only one week, you should easily bring home 5 PTA points simply because of Hannah Montana's popularity. Heck, some parents even write false essays about a father who died in Iraq (even though he didn't) so that their kid can win tickets to this concert (the live one, not the 3D theatrical one). The IMDb score won't be terrific, but it won't kill you either. Theaters will be full while Hannah Montana is in theaters, especially over the weekend, when PTA points are calculated. And at $15 each for tickets, the box office revenue shouldn't be too shabby, especially considering that there are close to 1,000 screens with digital 3D capability nationwide. And keep in mind, too, that if there's a lot of demand, Disney may hold it over in theaters for another week. The Nightmare Before Christmas re-release was only supposed to be a three-week 3D engagement, but my local theater had it for four — so Disney has done it before.

The reason to take a flyer on Flawless (March 1; $2) is that its two headliners are Michael Caine and Demi Moore. If it was, say, Jimmy Fallon and Tom Arnold (and yes, a movie does exist with those two in it), I wouldn't recommend it. Now, Flawless has been pushed back before; it was originally scheduled to open on Nov. 30, basically just taking up space in the lull after Thanksgiving. The question is, was the film moved back to March because the studio felt better about its chances there, or was the date changed simply because the studio wasn't confident about it no matter when it was released? Either way, for only $2 it can't hurt you THAT badly. The IMDb rating is currently 7.1, so that's a great contribution in that category, and a few PTA points could swing your way too, if you have this on your roster. Just beware that the film is released on a Saturday, giving the other PTA hopefuls of the weekend (namely City of Men) a one day headstart. I'm not sure if Flawless can make up that lost ground; after all, it's certainly no Darjeeling Limited. But hey, at least Michael Caine as a janitor pulling off a diamond heist sounds intriguing, doesn't it?

After the debacle that was My Super Ex-Girlfriend, I'm not sure I'd want to rely on an Uma Thurman romantic comedy in any Fantasy Moguls league, especially one under the umbrella of the Yari Film Group (who, since The Illusionist, haven't had much success — including with Resurrecting the Champ, Kickin it Old Skool and The Final Season). Still, The Accidental Husband (March 7; $4) is probably one of your only good bets for some extra-cheap box office revenue. That's helped in no small way by the fact that Husband is currently scheduled for a wide release, so even against weekend favorite 10,000 B.C. and the sure-to-surprise College Road Trip, it might be able to sneak you a few million under the table. Fantasy Moguls's estimate of $12 million might be conservative; again using the easiest comparable movie (by way of Uma Thurman), even My Super-Ex Girlfriend pulled down $22 million (oh, Ivan Reitman, how far from Ghostbusters ye have fallen). Don't lean TOO heavily on this Husband though. Then again, $15 million and a respectable IMDb user rating (and MAYBE a single Top 5 point) is a great boost for a $4 investment.

Again here I'm going to fall back on what by now might be considered an old adage— foreign films will often have PTA success. In this case, the foreign contributor is Mexico, with Under the Same Moon (March 19; $3). The Wednesday release might be cause for concern, but as Control showed us last October (and as My Blueberry Nights should confirm this February), the extra two days won't hurt the PTA very much. Moon will be up against Love Songs and an expanding Snow Angels, but much in the same fashion that The Orphanage pulled down 2 PTA points even against Persepolis and There Will Be Blood a few weeks ago, I think Under the Same Moon can come away with a few PTA points on its opening weekend. If it does accomplish that, it could very well hold steady in the Top 5 PTA earners for a second weekend, with only two other limited releases scheduled for March 28. And if nothing else, you will have spent $3 for a sterling IMDb rating; it's currently at 8.6.

Something that SHOULD be priced at $5 or less is one of those films scheduled for March 28, because after all, it does have only one weekend in play, and when you could get 4-5 PTA points from some cheaper picks, it doesn't make too much sense to pay more than $5 for one weekend of performance. Granted, My Brother is an Only Child (March 28; $6) isn't very far from that $5 cutoff at all, and it does have the foreign film aspect going for it (it's from Italy), but I just can't justify throwing $6 into only one weekend hoping for some PTA. If the IMDb score were better, I might endorse it (it's currently at 7.1, and don't get me wrong, that's not BAD, but not awesome either), and if the price tag is just about the same when February-April leagues roll around, this could be a great sleeper pick. But even though PTA points in more than one weekend are a rarity, the chance that your investment might not yield anything at all makes $6 too high a price.

BOX OFFICE MOGULS BARGAINS

All you really need to know about The Bank Job (March 7; $5) is that it stars Jason Statham, it's an action/heist movie based on a true story in which no arrests were ever made (and no money ever recovered) and Uwe Boll is thankfully NOT directing. The past few Statham movies have all had decent box office success — WAR  made $22 million, Crank made $27 million and Transporter 2 made $43 million. (This is, of course, excepting films like Chaos, which appears to have gone straight to DVD domestically, and The Pink Panther, in which Statham was uncredited.) So, I think you can expect much of the same from The Bank Job (which isn't a sequel to The Italian Job, although Statham is making that movie too — it's called The Brazilian Job, but it won't arrive to complete the Statham Job trilogy 'til 2009). A box office take a little above $20 million sounds about right, maybe even approaching $30 million. (Perhaps the intrigue of the heist as opposed to just a straight-up action movie will draw in some extra viewers.) Not bad for just $5.

Depending on how wide Picturehouse takes it, the oft-delayed Simon Pegg comedy Run Fatboy Run (March 28; $2) could be a sneaky little final weekend box office pick. (Personally, I'm waiting eagerly for Pegg's NEXT project, How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, to hit American shores after its United Kingdom release in October, because Megan Fox is in it. But I digress.) Back in April, Hot Fuzz, starring Mr. Pegg himself, opened to $5.8 million on just 825 screens, so even though Run Fatboy Run doesn't pair him with Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead collaborator Edgar Wright, the film stands to do alright for itself. Another $6 million for that $2 investment wouldn't be terrible by any means, and it might be safer to go with this wide release rather than hope an $2 arthouse pick (like My Blueberry Nights) expands wide enough to make a dent at the box office.

Will the failure of war-themed movies (Lions for Lambs, Rendition, Grace is Gone) carry over into 2008? One big test will come with the release of Stop Loss (March 28; $3), in which a soldier who has come home from Iraq refuses to go back despite a government order that he do so. The film features Ryan Phillippe and up-and-comer Joseph Gordon-Levitt, as well as Channing Tatum and the Hitman himself, Timothy Olyphant. So, certainly not a bad start there. The weekend of March 28 is a tad crowded, with four wide releases and two limited ones, but at $3, even if Stop Loss does perform more like Rendition ($4 million opening) than Jarhead ($27 million opening), you won't feel too ripped off. Fantasy Moguls predicts $19 million, and that would frankly be a HUGE surprise in one weekend. But, a nice $5-7 million opening doesn't seem too far off.

Spoof movies are widely viewed as being steaming pantloads, and poor excuses for cinema. I do think, however, that the Scary Movie franchise can hold its head a tiny little bit higher than the Date Movies and Epic Movies of the world. After all, the last installment, Scary Movie 4, managed to maintain a decent 5.2 IMDb score, whereas Date Movie and Epic Movie are (and soon, Meet the Spartans will be) below 3. That said, the presence of producer David Zucker (Airplane!, Naked Gun, Scary Movie 3 and 4) means that Superhero! (March 28; $5) can't be THAT awful. Even if the IMDb score does plummet, you can simply thumb your nose at the IMDb voters, since in Box Office leagues, IMDb rating doesn't matter. Now, I don't know that Superhero! can approach the heights of Scary Movie 4's $40 million opening weekend, but a $15 million opening might not be too far off, and if it really does well out of the gate, perhaps Fantasy Moguls's $31 million prediction could be eclipsed sooner rather than later. I haven't heard much about this film yet, but if the date sticks, it could be one to watch out for. Instead of juxtaposing, say, Spider-Man and Sparta, at least Zucker, writer/director Craig Mazin, and company are smart enough to keep Spidey with the rest of the superheroes.

My final bargain is perhaps one of the best on the Box Office side. I say, snap up probable weekend winner 21 (March 28; $3) for all your Box Office slates. It's not going to be huge, but hey, it's only $3, so even if you just get $10-15 million, that's a big help for a small price. (Together with Flawless and The Bank Job, we'll get a soothsayer to call the three films the Heists of March. Except here, you don't need to be quite as wary as Julius Ceasar.) Kevin Spacey and Laurence Fishburne highlight the cast. The tie-in with the number 21 would have made it ideal to keep the March 21 release date instead of moving it back a week, but even so, that doesn't really have a big effect on the box office potential. Fantasy Moguls projects $23 million, but I think it can go higher than that. Certainly not in the first weekend, but as an overall number, yes, especially if it hits the $15 million mark in the first 3 days.

Again my pick for a film that SHOULD be $5 or less isn't too far off from that price range, but I still think Charlie Bartlett (Feb. 22; $7) won't be anything to crow about. It's been pushed back twice now, from August to Feb. 1, and then again to its current date, and that never bodes well for a film. It would have been crushed by The Bourne Ultimatum in August, but releasing it in February doesn't exactly give the rosiest outlook either. The R rating (due to the drug content inherent with Charlie becoming an unofficial school pharmacist) might also dampen the prospects a bit, as well as the competition of Jumper holding over, Be Kind Rewind and Vantage Point firing it up the same weekend, and Semi-Pro just one week later. If it were $5 or less, I might think about it, but instead of spending $7 here, take a bargain basement film and use the extra funds to perhaps "upgrade" one of your other choices, or even splurge an extra dollar on Drillbit Taylor.

An update on U2 3D, which I mentioned in my last column — it's been given a Valentine's Day release in nationwide digital 3D theaters, a week after Hannah Montana clears out. (There's another sign that Disney will consider keeping Ms. Montana's 3D concert in theaters an extra week, since the next big 3D release is TWO weeks after Hannah Montana.) If U2 3D is available in February-April leagues, definitely think about it as one of your PTA picks. Until next week, good luck!

If American Beauty ever gets remade with Megan Fox in the Mena Suvari role, then Mister Informative would be available to play Lester Burnham. He's just sayin'. Sign up to play Ricky Fitts by sending a message to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.