Don't even consider a movie priced over $40. There are always sleeper hits, and there are always films that will perform solidly for far less money, perhaps even nearly equal the output of a Moguls Monster. For example, using Robots as a comparable to the forthcoming Horton Hears a Who (animated film released in early/mid-March from Blue Sky Studios), Robots brought in $87 million in three weeks. Although Horton does only have three weeks of eligibility in the January-March game, it can be had for $22, a pittance compared to the $43 price tag for Cloverfield, and it should pull in $90 million or so (if not more) in those three weeks. In February-April leagues, the film has 7 weeks to perform, and the price tag is not much higher: $29 Box Office Moguls, $31 Ultimate Movie Moguls. It's a great pickup, if you ask me. There is simply too much of a risk involved with picking movies priced over $40. If they fail to live up to expectations, then that just leaves you very little wiggle room with which to retool your slate. The reward can be great, but there are just too many risks to make it worthwhile. Tread carefully with anything between $35-$39 as well — although I will admit that a $36 pick (The Bourne Ultimatum) did help me win a league back in the July-September time frame.

Pay attention to early reviews. On paper, The Air I Breathe looked like a surefire PTA winner this past weekend, especially with an 8.9 IMDb score, but it has a putrid 6 percent fresh rating on RottenTomatoes (that was up before the weekend; Meet the Spartans is just a tick worse at 3 percent), and another review I read gave it 4 stars out of 10. And lo and behold, the film didn't even crack the top 10 PTA earners of the weekend. Users who chose it will still get that great IMDb score, but the lack of PTA is surely a disappointment. However, some enterprising Moguls surely saw these signs and purged The Air from their slates just before the deadline. Be especially watchful of your limited releases and PTA hopefuls. Wide releases (with a few exceptions) aren't generally affected by bad reviews, especially if the aforementioned Spartans are any indication, but a few negative reviews can turn your prestige film into a flop in the blink of an eye.

Even out your investments rather than picking two or three big films and a bunch of filler. I've seen many slates with a handful of $25-plus movies and then a gaggle of sub-$5 choices. And while some of them manage to be successful, a lot of that relies on the cheap picks exceeding their expectations. Once again, that's just too risky for me. In a way, this goes hand in hand with avoiding expensive picks — if you are wholly reliant on three really big films and a bunch of iffy choices, you could be hung out to dry if one of your biggies is really a medium-ie (or even, gasp, a small-ie). The majority of slates formatted this way tend to end up in the bottom echelon of their individual leagues. (If you play this way and have won a league, no offense meant. Kudos to you.) There are often a multitude of good picks in the $8-$16 range, leaving plenty of room for one or two upper tier contributors AND some mid-priced choices that you can be more confident about. That way, you don't have to hope your secondary picks MIGHT be big; you know they will do well enough to propel you up the leaderboard.

Never spend more than $20 for a film whose main contribution would be PTA points. In the February -April season, I'd definitely stay away from Young@Heart, especially given that it only has two weeks in play before the season ends. Even if it earns 10 PTA points in those two weeks (and there's no guarantee, frankly, of getting even half that) you will probably feel ripped off. And you probably would have been able to get those points elsewhere — whether from another powerhouse limited release, or even from a wide release that grabs a few PTA points on its opening weekend (Meet the Spartans and Rambo both managed to do so last weekend). Again, it's all about risk. That small specialty film may look like a smash hit, but what if it isn't? "What if?" is a good question to ask yourself — more than once — while putting together your slate, especially when high price tags are involved. As for earning 10 PTA points with a single film, incidentally, I find it more likely that In Bruges, My Blueberry Nights, Shine A Light, or even Smart People (although why'd they have to dilute the quality by casting Sarah Jessica Parker?) will accomplish that feat, and all of them are less expensive.

Don't shy away from putting certain films on your slate just because you personally could not care less them. I personally couldn't care less about Hannah Montana, for example, but I'm aware of how maniacal her fan base is, and I've read news articles about how fast tickets are selling, even how fast they WERE selling despite going on sale two months in advance. So you can bet I've got her limited engagement 3D concert event on a bunch of my slates. Romantic comedies may not be your thing, but consider the timeliness of releasing one around Valentine's Day ... hence, Fool's Gold and Definitely, Maybe might be worth a second look. The logic applies even when it comes to PTA picks — for example, I watched the trailer for There Will Be Blood and thought, "Man, that looks boring." But knowing the pedigree and hype behind it, I still picked it up for a slate or two, and voila, PTA points came raining down like oil from the derricks. (For the record, my skepticism lightened a bit and I did see the movie after all — it's in my Top 5 for 2007.)

Some of these tips reflect my learning from my own mistakes, but there are also some just plain boneheaded moves among Mister Informative's Top 5 Do-Overs of 2007:

First Pick Fiasco — One year ago, in a February-April draft league, I was fortunate enough to have the first choice. In retrospect, I should have chosen 300, or even Wild Hogs, but noooo. I grabbed Norbit — in an Ultimate league, no less! And the IMDb score absolutely ruined me. Not to mention that the film didn't even crack $100 million. I mean, yeah, of COURSE I knew it would eventually be nominated for an Oscar, but I shouldn't have let that cloud my judgment. (Wink.)

Behemoth Buyer's Remorse — I made three studios for the May-July season last summer. In one, I chose Spider-Man 3, in another I chose Shrek the Third, and the final one was anchored by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Every one of these picks cost over $40, and, well, let's just say I learned my lesson. Even though they all earned over $300 million, the giant price tags simply left me hamstrung, with no room for other quality picks. Instead, I relied on things like A Mighty Heart. Ouch.

Road to Ruin — I was searching for a source of PTA points in a September-November season, and decided on Reservation Road. I thought the presence of two Oscar nominees in Joaquin Phoenix and director Terry George would carry it to PTA success. I read a multitude of poor reviews in the week leading up to its release, but thought, "Nah, it'll be fine." And then it didn't earn any PTA points, any at all. Not even in the Top 10 in that category on its opening weekend. I saw the signs of failure, but ignored them. (I did have The Darjeeling Limited and Lars and the Real Girl in that same league, so thankfully not all was lost, but Reservation Road did deal me a severe blow.)

You Gotta be Kid(man)ing Me — Foolishly, I thought that all the religious backlash against The Golden Compass might actually end up benefiting the box office numbers, since it could just make more people curious to see what all the fuss was about. I remembered a similar outrage over The Da Vinci Code, complete with protesters picketing outside theaters, and heck, that opened to $77 million in spite of all the foofaraw (and in spite of Tom Hanks' mullet). Hence, I thought there wouldn't be much of a problem. It was a lot of hullabaloo over nothing; I even dropped I Am Legend from one slate to make room for Compass. And, well, you know how that story ends up — its performance was anything but golden.

Highbrow Holdovers — This is actually from 2008, but was in a December-February league, so I feel it counts. Noticing the placement of The Killing of John Lennon as the only limited release for a certain weekend, I thought, well there's some guaranteed PTA points, and so I added it to one slate, hoping to avoid the quagmire of Oscar contenders fighting for PTA in December. I neglected to consider that those very contenders would remain strong even after the first weekend. The Killing of John Lennon may have been new, but new doesn't necessarily mean better — it didn't even have a higher PTA than One Missed Call! OMC!

So there you have it. Learn from my mistakes and you'll be certain to win ... in the end. (You know, just like it says in that one song from Teen Wolf. We've all seen Teen Wolf, right? Or am I dating myself? Hello? Is this thing on?) I'll be back next week with a rundown of the studs, duds and wild cards that the final four weekends of February are sure to bring. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative drinks your milkshake! Have your own movie that you wish you'd seen sooner? Tell him all about it at misterinformative@gmail.com.