Jan. 4-6
Stud: The Killing of John Lennon — This is the only limited release scheduled this week, and though that alone doesn't guarantee it a Top 5 PTA finish, I feel its chances are pretty good. Holdovers will be strong, to be sure, especially with There Will Be Blood pulling down a scorching $93,000 PTA this past weekend. Atonement, Juno and The Orphanage are all expanding next week, however,  making their PTA prospects more of an uphill climb. Thus, I think John Lennon will sneak onto the leaderboard, and at a measly $7 in December-February Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, that's not a bad investment for a few PTA points and a great IMDb score (it currently sits at 7.5). Also worth thinking about is the fact that there are no limited releases scheduled for Jan. 11, so John Lennon could spend two weeks among the PTA leaders.
Dud: None (There are only two films being released this week, after all.)
Wild Card: One Missed Call — It's being marketed to death (no pun intended) and looks incredibly bad, but it seems like this one might just pull off something similar to what When a Stranger Calls did almost two years ago. (And also, when is the studio going to start with the direct-to-DVD sequels on that franchise? When a Stranger Has the Wrong Number, When a Stranger Texts — there are oodles of possibilities here. When a Stranger Calls But Doesn't Leave a Voicemail is out, because, well, that's One Missed Call.) Teen horror films are hit or miss — ask Sarah Michelle Gellar after The Return — but Japanese adaptations have fared well. Look at The Ring or The Grudge. Even The Messengers (not a Japanese horror film adaptation, but still a teen horror movie) grabbed $14 million on a Super Bowl weekend. Look for pretty low IMDb scores, but a solid $40 million box office take isn't out of the question.

Jan. 11-13
Stud: 27 Dresses — P.S. I Love You has had only middling success, but this film probably has a decidedly happier ending (nobody's dead, or stays dead ... at least, I don't think so) and the field of competition will be considerably weaker for 27 Dresses. Some talking vegetables and a medieval Jason Statham are certainly no Ben Gates and Robert Neville. Anne Fletcher is directing; her last directorial effort was Step Up, which did surprisingly well at the box office. Don't be surprised if 27 Dresses wins the weekend. There will have been enough time for the big Christmas movies to die down a bit, and One Missed Call certainly won't be anything a light romantic comedy can't overcome at the box office. This doesn't have the seemingly golden touch of Judd Apatow, but marketers have made sure to mention that Katherine Heigl was in Knocked Up, and that plus her fame from Grey's Anatomy will also help draw the crowds. It should stay pretty strong in its second week too, as counter-programming to Cloverfield.
Dud: In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale — (Did you really need ME to tell you that this'd be a bomb?) There are four little words that tell me, "Avoid this movie like the plague." Those four words: directed by Uwe Boll. Last time Mr. Boll released a movie was Bloodrayne; that opened in 19th place, even in a comparatively bare January market, bringing in even less over the weekend than the 8-weeks-stale (at the time) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and Walk the Line. It ended up with a total gross of $2.4 million. The distributor sent prints of the movie even to theaters that weren't booked to show it, just hoping that the projectionists would open it, build it, and put it on a screen somewhere. Now THAT'S desperate. I expect similarly terrible performance this time around. Uwe has a new distributor, but it's FreeStyle releasing, who brought Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour, D-War and The Abandoned to theaters this year. Ain't that a bunch of winners? Stay away from this one at all costs.
Wild Card: First Sunday — It could be huge, and I think the box office revenues will be much higher than most people expect, but the risk is that the IMDb score will be abnormally low. It's undeserved, but racist weighting of IMDb User Rating scores happens pretty regularly, so you've got to take that into account when planning your slate. If you're in a Box Office Moguls league, then definitely grab this, because the dividends will be pretty good, but if you're in an Ultimate league, think hard about it before you pull the trigger. When I saw I Am Legend, the rest of the crowd had a very positive reaction to the First Sunday trailer, certainly a better reaction than I expected. And there weren't a lot of people in the theater who'd be counted among First Sunday's target demographic, so that also bodes well. This will be another African-American January hit, following in the footsteps of Stomp the Yard last year, and proving that Tyler Perry isn't the only filmmaker who can attract black audiences. Again, only the risk of an abysmal IMDb score prevents Sunday from being an all-out stud.

Jan. 18-20
Stud: Cassandra's Dream — Once again, this one is the only limited release on the schedule for a given week. (At least the only one available in December leagues; Sundance hit Teeth is also scheduled for Jan. 18, but isn't on the roster for December-February leagues.) That, plus the fact that Woody Allen is directing, makes this almost a shoo-in for some PTA points. The reputation of an esteemed filmmaker don't always guarantee success — Francis Ford Coppola knows firsthand after Youth Without Youth — but even though Cassandra is getting lukewarm reviews (only 64 percent fresh at RottenTomatoes), the decision to move it from Dec. 28 to Jan. 18 was probably a boon to Moguls players. PTA points are basically guaranteed, and with 6 or 7 weeks in play before December-February. leagues end, this could also bring in a respectable amount of box office revenue. Allen's last two films, Scoop and Match Point, made $10 million and $23 million, respectively. Cassandra should end up somewhere in between.
Dud: Mad Money — This one will be another victim of the Cloverfield monster. I like heist films, so this has an interesting premise, but it looks miscast and watered down, so much so that, despite an intriguing concept, I'm really not interested at all. It also doesn't have the power of a big studio behind it. That alone doesn't really speak to the film's quality, I know, but if it were better, don't you think a bigger studio might've picked it up for distribution? This one's definitely a dump because it's not going to do well no matter when it's released. Might as well get it out of the way, right? Women may be looking for a good way to spend a few hours while the guys go watch Cloverfield, but this isn't it. They'll watch 27 Dresses instead, or maybe even tag along if their husband or boyfriend PROMISES to take them to Over Her Dead Body or Fool's Gold.
Wild Card: Cloverfield — That's right. You heard me. It's not a stud. Very rarely does a true blockbuster come out of January. And if Paramount were more confident in this movie, don't you think they'd move it to, say, March? That'd leave more time to further build buzz. It reminds me a lot of Snakes on a Plane, in that the hype is incredible, and yet ... All the hype made us forget that, despite everyone raving about it, Snakes still was set to come out in August, a typically dead time for movies (despite the occasional Talladega Nights or The Bourne Ultimatum). The box office performance of Snakes was a huge disappointment, given the hype, but not too bad by mid-August standards. Similarly, you shouldn't let all the hype about Cloverfield obscure the fact that it's coming out in the wasteland of January. Maybe this won't fall into the all hype, no bite trap, but even if that's the case, it's pretty darn expensive and there's no way it equals the output of the December biggies. I'll admit, it could be huge, but there's just as much probability that it'll flop. Take it if you're feeling daring.

Jan. 25-27
Stud: The Air I Breathe — PTA points are virtually a lock, especially if Be Kind Rewind gets a wide release from the get-go. If that's the case, The Air could end up on top of the PTA leaderboard in its opening weekend. Even if Be Kind Rewind does only get a limited release, and wins the PTA battle, The Air has a strong chance at second place and 4 PTA, at a decidedly cheaper price than Jack Black and Mos Def will cost you. And, it has a sterling 9.2 IMDb score, with over 950 votes. THINKfilm is distributing, and they have a history of some PTA winners, like Half Nelson and In the Shadow of the Moon. The cast is also superb: Forest Whitaker and Andy Garcia make up for any disdain I'd have for Sarah Michelle Gellar, and there's even Brendan Fraser, Emile Hirsch and Kevin Bacon for good measure. You really can't go wrong here.
Dud: How She Move — Dance movies are often surprise smashes — look at Step Up or Stomp the Yard — but Feel the Noise flopped back in October, and you can really only do something so many times before it becomes stale. (Plus, Step Up 2 The Streets is on the docket just a few weeks later; I think most people would go for the sequel over another movie about step dancing.) Jan. 25 is also a fairly crowded weekend; How She Move has to fend off Rambo, Untraceable and Meet the Spartans, as wide releases go. Not to mention, Cloverfield and 27 Dresses will still be hanging around. And, as crappy as Meet the Spartans will surely be, it's got a better shot at success than How She Move. That said, I have this in a November-January Box Office league, because it only costs $2. But that's all I'd be willing to pay for it, and in December-February leagues, there are much better options out there. (The Other Boleyn Girl and Diary of the Dead being two of them.) And in an Ultimate league, don't even think about it — the IMDb score will surely ruin you.
Wild Card: Rambo — Nostalgia carried Rocky Balboa to $70 million, but again, Rambo is coming out at a typically dead time — is there enough nostalgia to make this a success? I think so, especially by January standards. It might get bad reviews, and that could drive away some business, and the R rating also acts as a bit of a damper. But, Rambo: First Blood Part II made $150 million with an R rating — in 1985, no less. Still, it's only a wild card because I think a $17 price tag in Box Office leagues is a bit steep. $16 in Ultimate is a bit better, because you'll get some Top 5 points and maybe even a PTA point or two. But be aware that the IMDb ratings have gone downhill since the first Rambo movie, from 7.1 to 5.4 to 4.4. With a solid box office contribution, a rating in the mid-to-high 5 range won't hurt you too much, though, so this still remains a sneaky (possibly sleeper) pick.

Here's hoping this list helps you accomplish that New Year's resolution of finally winning a Fantasy Moguls league. Until next week, good luck!

Mister Informative is ducking to get out of the line of fire of all the Cloverfield disciples. Let him know why a newfangled Godzilla movie is such a sure thing at misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.