It's no surprise that Cloverfield suffered a 10 percent drop on Saturday from its meteoric $16.25 million Friday. In fact, many were expecting a steeper drop. My Early Saturday Estimate is that the J.J. Abrams-produced monster flick scared up $15.07 million, which is the all-time second-best single box office day for a January release, topped only by its own opening day number.

Four-day holiday weekends are always a bit tricky to project, but I'm calling for an estimated $10.55 million Sunday (down 30 percent) and $6.85 million on Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday (another 35 percent dip). If those numbers hold, then Cloverfield will register an all-time best January three-day with $42.3 million, and the all-time No. 1 MLK Day four-day performance with $49.23 million.

Fox's 27 Dresses received a 14 percent Saturday boost to $8.72 million, and I’m calling for a $6.71 million Sunday and a $4.76 million Monday. If I've successfully projected the performance of Dresses over the next two days, then the Katerine Heigl vehicle will turn in a $23.08 million three-day (10th-best for a January title) and the all-time fifth-best MLK Day four-day holiday weekend.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 JANUARY 3-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield — $42.37 million (Estimated)
2. Star Wars: Special Edition — $35.9 million
3. Black Hawk Down — $28.6 million
4. Big Momma’s House 2 — $27.73 million
5. Along Came Polly — $27.72 million
6. Underworld: Evolution — $26.85 million
7. Coach Carter — $24.18 million
8. White Noise — $24.11 million
9. Save the Last Dance — $23.4 million
10. 27 Dresses — $23.08 million (Estimated)

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY 4-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield — $49.23 million (Estimated)
2. Black Hawk Down — $33.6 million
3. Along Came Polly — $32.4 million
4. Coach Carter — $29.1 million
5. 27 Dresses — $27.85 million (Estimated)
6. Save the Last Dance — $27.5 million
7. Stomp the Yard — $25.8 million
8. Snow Dogs — $23.7 million
9. Kangaroo Jack — $21.8 million
10. Racing Stripes — $18.8 million

Rob Reiner’s The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) is holding up exceedingly well, with $6.72 million on Saturday and a likely four-day of $18.3 million. Juno (Fox Searchlight) continued its winning streak with $4.22 million Saturday, and it appears to be headed for a $12.25 million long weekend. With the Oscar nominations due on Tuesday, and this quirky comedy having a real shot at nods for Best Picture, Best Actress (Ellen Page) and Best Original Screenplay (Diablo Cody), there is still some upside here. Juno is at $87.3 million domestic, and it will almost certainly reach the $100 million mark. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) will finish No. 5 for the weekend with $10.56 million, and that will likely put Nic Cage's adventure tale over the $200 million threshold.

There are some domestic box office achievements to recognize: Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) is targeting $9.33 million for the MLK Day weekend, and it should exceed $200 million domestic sometime on Tuesday. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) will rack up another $6.21 million during this four-day, and it is likely to pass $250 million on Tuesday or Wednesday. Also, P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) will have broken the $50 million barrier by Monday night, after a likely $2.32 million long weekend.

The third new wide release is the all-girl caper comedy Mad Money, the first release from new distributor Overture. It received a nice 39 percent Saturday bounce for $3.19 million, and it will likely reap $9.28 million for the Friday-thru-Monday period, No. 8 for the four-day frame.

Woody Allen's Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM) is a disappointment after generating just $173,000 on Saturday for a Per Location Average of $1,617. The latest film from the 21-time Oscar nominee should finish the four-day with a soft $500,000 at its 107 locations, for an estimated $4,673 PTA.

Meanwhile, Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House), produced by and starring Pamela Anderson, is a huge disaster. The comedy, which teams Anderson with the equally wooden Denise Richards, is playing on 16 screens, and it averaged only $156 Per Theatre on Saturday. By Monday night, it will have banked only $15,000 total or about $940 per location. That's Jessica Simpson money.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Cloverfield (Paramount) — $15.07 million, $4,420 PTA [$31.82 million cume]
2. NEW 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $8.72 million, $2,853 PTA [$16.37 million cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $6.72 million, $2,306 PTA [$38.4 million cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.22 million, $1,666 PTA [$82.4 million cume]
5. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $3.72 million, $989 PTA [$195.6 million cume]
6. First Sunday (Sony) — $3.36 million, $1,521 PTA [$26.2 million cume]
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $3.27 million, $1,104 PTA [$194.2 million cume]
8. NEW Mad Money (Overture) — $3.19 million, $1,294 PTA [$5.49 million cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $2.29 million, $909 PTA [$246.2 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $2.04 million, $1,581 PTA [$30.4 million cume]
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.32 million, $3,394 PTA [$7.1 million cume]
12. Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $1.23 million, $924 PTA [$6.6 million cume]
13. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $1.2 million, $624 PTA [$23.6 million cume]
14. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.18 million, $787 PTA [$47.3 million cume]
15. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $1.01 million, $752 PTA [$62.4 million cume]
16. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $840,000, $506 PTA [$37 million cume]
17. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $825,000, $507 PTA [$49.9 million cume]
18. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $609,000, $596 PTA [$27.4 million cume]
19. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $570,000, $697 PTA [$48.2 million cume]
20. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $475,000, $677 PTA [$4.6 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $470,000, $776 PTA [$12.3 million cume]
* Enchanted (Disney) — $460,000, $600 PTA [$123.4 million cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $190,000, $559 PTA [$68.1 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $180,000, $1,029 PTA [$3.3 million cume]
* NEW Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM) — $173,000, 1,617 PTA [$284,000 cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $153,000, $1,430 PTA [$2.2 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $99,000, $5,824 PTA [$786,000 cume]
* NEW Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) — $35,708, $ 1,984 PTA [$63,000 cume]
* NEW Teeth (Roadside Attractions) — $10,438, $2,609 PTA [$19,600 cume]
* NEW Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) — $5,107, $2,553 PTA [$7,809 cume]
* NEW Summer Palace (Palm) — $3,907, $3,907 PTA [$5,985 cume]
* NEW Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) — $3,821, $764 PTA [$5,171 cume]
* NEW Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) — $2,496, $156 PTA [$12,096 cume]
* NEW Day Zero (Glass Key) — $2,028, $2,028 PTA [$3,855 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Cloverfield (Paramount) — $49.23 million, $14,435 PTA [$49.23 million cume]
2. NEW 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $27.85 million, $9,112 PTA [$27.85 million cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $18.3 million, $6,281 PTA [$45.8 million cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $12.25 million, $4,838 PTA [$87.3 million cume]
5. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $10.56 million, $2,808 PTA [$200.4 million cume]
6. First Sunday (Sony) — $9.73 million, $4,397 PTA [$30.3 million cume]
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $9.33 million, $3,151 PTA [$198.7 million cume]
8. NEW Mad Money (Overture) — $9.28 million, $3,759 PTA [$9.28 million cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $6.21 million, $2,460 PTA [$248.7 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $5.75 million, $4,454 PTA [$32.8 million cume]
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $4.03 million, $10,377 PTA [$9 million cume]
12. Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $3.6 million, $2,692 PTA [$8.4 million cume]
13. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.38 million, $2,248 PTA [$48.8 million cume]
14. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $3.28 million, $1,707 PTA [$24.8 million cume]
15. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $2.7 million, $2,004 PTA [$63.5 million cume]
16. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.34M , $1,413 PTA [$38.1 million cume]
17. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $2.32M , $1,428 PTA [$50.8 million cume]
18. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.72 million, $1,692 PTA [$28.1 million cume]
19. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.54 million, $1,892 PTA [$48.9 million cume]
20. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $1.37 million, $1,955 PTA [$5.2 million cume]
* Enchanted (Disney) — $1.33 million, $1,742 PTA [$124.1 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.32 million, $2,181 PTA [$12.9 million cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $537,000, $1,579 PTA [$68.3 million cume]
* NEW Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM) — $500,000, $4,673 PTA [$500,000 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $495,000, $2,829 PTA [$3.6 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $430,000, $4,019 PTA [$2.4 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $288,000, $16,941 PTA [$910,000 cume]
* NEW Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) — $106,344, $5,908 PTA [$106,344 cume]
* NEW Teeth (Roadside Attractions) — $31,884, $7,971 PTA [$31,884 cume]
* NEW Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) — $15,038, $940 PTA [$15,038 cume]
* NEW Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) — $13,937, $6,968 PTA [$13,937 cume]
* NEW Summer Palace (Palm) — $10,737, $10,737 PTA [$10,737 cume]
* NEW Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) — $9,633, $1,927 PTA [$9,633 cume]
* NEW Day Zero (Glass Key) — $6,289, $6,289 PTA [$6,289 cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: Paramount's 2008 is off to a spectacular start. The J.J. Abrams-produced Cloverfield has delivered a monster opening day of an estimated $18.25 million, and it will easily coast to both the all-time January three-day record and the all-time four-day Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend record. The Friday number is a tough call because there's no clear answer about where Paramount will add Thursday post-midnight sneak preview business. That means that there's a slightly larger margin of error in my Early Friday Estimate than usual.

There will almost certainly be a dip in business Friday-to-Saturday, maybe as much as 15 percent. Even with that sort of "front-loading," however, this $25 million-budgeted, Internet-driven phenomenon will likely reach a staggering three-day of $48 million, easily becoming the best January opening ever. By Monday night, fueled by the MLK Day school holiday, Cloverfield should set a new record for the long weekend with an estimated $52 million.

Paramount isn't the only studio celebrating this weekend. 20th Century Fox's 27 Dresses, starring Katherine Heigl (Grey's Anatomy, Knocked Up), has far exceeded industry expectations by "walking down the aisle" with $8.65 million on opening day, which should translate to a $26 million three-day and a four-day take of approximately $30.7 million. That will make this tepidly-reviewed romantic comedy the all-time seventh-biggest January opening and the all-time No. 4 MLK Day weekend four-day opening.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY 4-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield — $52 million (Estimated)
2. Black Hawk Down — $33.6 million
3. Along Came Polly — $32.4 million
4. 27 Dresses — $30.7 million (Estimated)
5. Coach Carter — $29.1 million
6. Save the Last Dance — $27.5 million
7. Stomp the Yard — $25.8 million
8. Snow Dogs — $23.7 million
9. Kangaroo Jack — $21.8 million
10. Racing Stripes — $18.8 million

ALL-TIME TOP 10 JANUARY 3-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Cloverfield — $48 million (Estimated)
2. Star Wars: Special Edition — $35.9 million
3. Black Hawk Down — $28.6 million
4. Big Momma's House 2 — $27.73 million
5. Along Came Polly — $27.72 million
6. Underworld: Evolution — $26.85 million
7. 27 Dresses — $26 million (Estimated)
8. Coach Carter — $24.18 million
9. White Noise — $24.11 million
10. Save the Last Dance — $23.4 million

After the two new major releases, The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) is third, both for the day, with $4.08 million, and, for the four-day, with an expected $16.96 million. Juno (Fox Searchlight) continues to excel during awards season. The teen pregnancy comedy added another $3.03 million on Friday. And it appears to be headed for an $11.66 million four-day, putting the Oscar-worthy film's cume at over $86 million by Tuesday morning. Sony holdover First Sunday rounds out the Friday Top 5 with $2.33 million. The Ice Cube/Tracy Morgan comedy should reach $9.35 million for the four-day holiday weekend.

The new company Overture has disappointed with its first release, Mad Money.  With a cast that includes Oscar winner Diane Keaton, Oscar nominee Queen Latifah and the increasingly creepy Katie Holmes, the caper/heist comedy managed only $2.25 million on Friday, and it'll stumble to an estimated $8.2 million four-day, only No. 7 for the weekend.

There are a number of specialty films that have opened on Friday, including Woody Allen's latest, and a new comedy produced by and starring Pamela Anderson. Allen's Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM), starring Colin Farrell and Ewan McGregor, is a disappointment with a mere $1,035 per-theatre average on 107 screens on Friday. It'll limp to just $422,000 for the four-day, or about $3,944 per location.

Meanwhile, Pamela Anderson's Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) debuted on 16 screens and has been met with complete indifference. In the movie, Anderson plays a dumb blonde named "Dee Twiddle" and she is joined by the equally talent-challenged Denise Richards as a dumb sidekick named "Dawn St. Dom." At some point, this mess was set to be directed by the late Bob Clark (Porky's, A Christmas Story), but he'd probably be relieved that he doesn't have this movie on his IMDb page. Blonde and Blonder sold an average of just $600 in tickets at each of its locations on Friday. That's less than $10,000 on opening day. The movie, allegedly a comedy, will finish the four-day with just over $29,000 total or about $1,800 in tickets at each location.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Cloverfield (Paramount) — $18.25 million, $5,350 PTA [$18.25 million cume]
2. NEW 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $8.65 million, $2,830 PTA [$8.65 million cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $4.08 million, $1,402 PTA [$31.6 million cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.03 million, $1,196 PTA [$78.1 million cume]
5. First Sunday (Sony) — $2.33 million, $1,057 PTA [$23 million cume]
6. NEW Mad Money (Overture) — $2.25 million, $650 PTA [$2.25 million cume]
7. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $2.05 million, $547 PTA [$191.9 million cume]
8. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $1.67 million, $565 PTA [$191.0 cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $1.5 million, $597 PTA [$244 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $1.24 million, $968 PTA [$28.3 million cume]
11. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $920,000, $478 PTA [$22.5 million cume]
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $762,000, $1,959 PTA [$5.7 million cume]
13. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $714,000, $474 PTA [$46.1 million cume]
14. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $605,000, $372 PTA [$49 million cume]
15. Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $560,000, $418 PTA [$5.4 million cume]
16. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $542,000, $401 PTA [$61.3 million cume]
17. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $392,000, $384 PTA [$26.8 million cume]
18. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $332,000, $473 PTA [$4.1 million cume]
19. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $325,000, $397 PTA [$47.7 million cume]
20. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $310,000, $187 PTA [$36.1 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $270,000, $446 PTA [$11.8 million cume]
* Enchanted (Disney) — $195,000, $254 PTA [$122.9 million cume]
* NEW Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM) — $111,000, 1,035 PTA [$111,000 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $95,000, $543 PTA [$3.2 million cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $91,000, $268 PTA [$67.9 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $86,000, $804 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $63,000, $3,706 PTA [$687,000 cume]
* NEW Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) — $27,468, $ 1,526 PTA [$27,468 cume]
* NEW Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) — $9,600, $600 PTA [$9,600 cume]
* NEW Teeth (Roadside Attractions) — $9,156, $2,289 PTA [$9,156 cume]
* NEW Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) — $2,702, $1,351 PTA [$2,702 cume]
* NEW Summer Palace (Palm) — $2,078, $2,078 PTA [$2,078 cume]
* NEW Day Zero (Glass Key) — $1,827, $1,827 PTA [$1,827 cume]
* NEW Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) — $1,350, $270 PTA [$1,350 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Cloverfield (Paramount) — $52 million, $15,245 PTA [$52 million cume]
2. NEW 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $30.7 million, $10,045 PTA [$30.7 million cume]
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $16.96 million, $5,818 PTA [$44.5 million cume]
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $11.66 million, $4,605 PTA [$86.7 million cume]
5. First Sunday (Sony) — $9.35 million, $4,229 PTA [$30 million cume]
6. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $8.44 million, $2,244 PTA [$198.3 million cume]
7. NEW Mad Money (Overture) — $8.21 million, $3,325 PTA [$8.21 million cume]
8. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $7.28 million, $2,460 PTA [$196.6 million cume]
9. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $6.32 million, $2,506 PTA [$248.9 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $4.99 million, $3,872 PTA [$32.1 million cume]
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.31 million, $8,521 PTA [$8.3 million cume]
12. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $3.22 million, $1,673 PTA [$24.8 million cume]
13. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.92 million, $1,943 PTA [$48.3 million cume]
14. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $2.48 million, $1,526 PTA [$50.9 million cume]
15. Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $2.38 million, $1,776 PTA [$7.2 million cume]
16. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $2.14 million, $1,584 PTA [$62.9 million cume]
17. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.54 million, $1,517 PTA [$27.9 million cume]
18. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.33 million, $1,637 PTA [$48.7 million cume]
19. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $1.317 million, $793 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
20. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $1.311 million, $1,868 PTA [$5.1 million cume]
* The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.1 million, $1,827 PTA [$12.7 million cume]
* Enchanted (Disney) — $840,000, $1,095 PTA [$123.6 million cume]
* NEW Cassandra's Dream (Weinstein/MGM) — $421,800, $3,942 PTA [$421,800 cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $397,000, $1,168 PTA [$68.2 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $392,000, $2,240 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $355,000, $3,318 PTA [$2.3 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $252,000, $14,824 PTA [$875,392 cume]
* NEW Little Chenier (Slowhand Releasing) — $104,378, $5,799PTA [$104,378 cume]
* NEW Teeth (Roadside Attractions) — $35,708, $8,927 PTA [$35,708 cume]
* NEW Blonde and Blonder (Hanover House) — $29,184, $1,824 PTA [$29,184 cume]
* NEW Taxi to the Dark Side (Thinkfilm) — $10,673, $5,336 PTA [$10,673 cume]
* NEW Summer Palace (Palm) — $8,104, $8,104 PTA [$8,104 cume]
* NEW Day Zero (Glass Key) — $7,125, $7,125 PTA [$7,125 cume]
* NEW Bombay to Bangkok (Eros Entertainment) — $5,130, $1,026 PTA [$5,130 cume]