WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Spartans' Headed to Weekend Win w/$18.5M; 'Rambo' Shoots Up $17.2M 3-day; '27 Dresses' Edges 'Cloverfield' for No. 3; '4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days' Wins Weekend PTA Race!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) has pulled off the upset weekend win with a likely $18.58 million three-day, holding off Sly Stallone's mildly disappointing Rambo (Lionsgate), which should finish the frame with $17.28 million. Heading to the Super Bowl in Phoenix tomorrow, so no time for in-depth analysis, but the rough numbers are below.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $7.79 million, $2,991 PTA [$14.45 million cume]
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $6.74 million, $2,454 PTA [$13.23 million cume]
3. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $5.83 million, $1,897 PTA [$41.7 million cume]
4. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $5.71 million, $1,675 PTA [$61.3 million cume]
5. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $4.86 million, $1,670 PTA [$55 million cume]
6. Untraceable (Sony) — $4.79 million, $2,025 PTA [$8.45 million cume]
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.64 million, $1,916 PTA [$97.4 million cume]
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $2.174 million, $1,009 PTA [$204 million cume]
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $2.171 - $893 PTA [$202.6 million cume]
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $2.16 million, $2,444 PTA [$13.2 million cume]
11. Mad Money (Overture) — $2.07 million, $838 PTA [$13.9 million cume]
12. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) — $1.96 million, $1,283 PTA [$3.18 million cume]
13. Atonement (Focus) — $1.78 million, $1,274 PTA [$36.7 million cume]
14. First Sunday (Sony) — $1.62 million, $1,081 PTA [$33.5 million cume]
15. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $1.07 million, $766 PTA [$251.1 million cume]
16. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.05 million, $951 PTA [$51.1 million cume]
17. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $1.02 million, $928 PTA [$40.9 million cume]
* 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) — $20,440, $10,220 PTA [$34,440 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $18.58 million, $7,133 PTA [$18.58 million cume]
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $17.28 million, $6,284 PTA [$17.28 million cume]
3. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $13.78 million, $4,484 PTA [$45.5 million cume]
4. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $12.93 million, $3,791 PTA [$64.5 million cume]
5. Untraceable (Sony) — $11.37 million, $4,805 PTA [$11.37 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $10.57 million, $4,358 PTA [$100.4 million cume]
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $10.37 million, $3,560 PTA [$57.8 million cume]
8. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $4.73 million, $5,346 PTA [$14.6 million cume]
9. Mad Money (Overture) — $4.63 million, $1,876 PTA [$15.3 million cume]
10. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $4.5 million, $2,092 PTA [$205.2 million cume]
11. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $4.41 million, $1,817 PTA [$204 million cume]
12. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) — $4.3 million, $2,810 PTA [$4.3 million cume]
13. Atonement (Focus) — $3.93 million, $2,808 PTA [$37.8 million cume]
14. First Sunday (Sony) — $3.26 million, $2,174 PTA [$34.4 million cume]
15. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $2.23 million, $1,588 PTA [$251.6 million cume]
16. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2.22 million, $2,012 PTA [$51.7 million cume]
17. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $2.04 million, $1,855 PTA [$41.4 million cume]
* 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) — $49,770, $24,885 PTA [$49,770 cume]
FRIDAY NIGHT: I'm getting ready to jet off to Phoenix for Super Bowl XLII, where I will be covering the game for ESPN, so I'm doing a "bare bones" version of my normal weekend estimates.
Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) has apparently won the day Friday with an estimated $6.5 million, compared to an opening day of $6 million for Rambo, but my projection is that the Lionsgate Stallone sequel will play a bit stronger with Males 25 Plus on this football-free Saturday and Sunday. My projection is that the poorly reviewed Rambo will manage to win the three-day with about $17.4 million compared to $17.1 million or so for Spartans.
Cloverfield (Paramount) has absolutely fallen apart in its second weekend. It managed only $4.5 million on Friday, and it'll lumber to a disappointing $13.1 million for the weekend. That would be a horrifying 68 percent drop, and it'll be in a three-day photo finish with 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox), which appears to be headed for $13 million after a $4 million Friday.
Sony's Untraceable has performed slightly above industry expectations with an estimated $3.5 million on its opening day. While skewing strongly toward older females, this techno-thriller should capture $10.5 million by Monday morning. Meanwhile, How She Move (Paramount Vantage) is a disaster with a meager $1 million on Friday, and a likely $2.85 million on opening weekend.
On the PTA front, IFC Films's 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, which failed to grab a foreign language Oscar nomination, debuted strongly at two locations on Friday with a $7,000 PTA. Cristian Mungiu's Romanian abortion drama, jilted by the Academy Awards's faulty foreign language film methodology, has a chance to score an impressive $25,000-plus weekend PTA.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $6.5 million, $2,495 PTA [$6.5 million cume]
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $6 million, $2,181 PTA [$6 million cume]
3. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $4.5 million, $1,560, $55.8 million cume]
4. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $4 million, $1,071 PTA [$35.4 million cume]
5. Untraceable (Sony) — $3.5 million, $1,478 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.85 million, $1,204 PTA [$92.7 million cume]
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $2.53 million, $1,043 PTA [$50 million cume]
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $1.25 million, $429 PTA [$202 million cume]
9. Mad Money (Overture) — $1.2 million, $557 PTA [$11.8 million cume]
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.15 million, $466 PTA [$11 million cume]
11. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) — $1 million, $653 PTA [$1 million cume]
12. Atonement (Focus) — $975,000, $637 PTA [$34.9 million cume]
13. Alvin & the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $820,000, $586 PTA [$200.4 million cume]
14. First Sunday (Sony) — $775,000, $319 PTA [$31.9 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $590,000, $393 PTA [$50.1 million cume]
16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $530,000, $479 PTA [$249.9M cume
* 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) — $14,000, $7,000 PTA [$14,000 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $17.4 million, $6,325 PTA [$17.4 million cume]
2. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $17.1 million, $6,564 PTA [$17.1 million cume]
3. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $13.1 million, $3,841 PTA [$64.6 million cume]
4. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $13 million, $4,229 PTA [$44.7 million cume]
5. Untraceable (Sony) — $10.5 million, $4,434 PTA [$10.5 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $9.4 million, $3,877 PTA [$99.2 million cume]
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $8.85 million, $3,038 PTA [$56.3 million cume]
8. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $4.68 million, $2,176 PTA [$205.4 million cume]
9. Mad Money (Overture) — $4.14 million, $1,676 PTA [$14.8 million cume]
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $4.08 million, $4,613 PTA [$13.9 million cume]
11. Alvin & the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $3.77 million, $1,552 PTA [$203.3 million cume]
12. Atonement (Focus) — $3.55 million, $2,542 PTA [$37.5 million cume]
13. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) — $2.85 million, $1,862 PTA [$2.85 million cume]
14. First Sunday (Sony) — $2.75 million, $1,831 PTA [$33.9 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2 million, $1,812 PTA [$51.5 million cume]
16. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $1.9 million, $1,358 PTA [$251.3 million cume]
* 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (IFC Films) — $51,100, $25,550 PTA [$51,100 cume]
Meet the spartans could be number 1#. there is no god.
Any news on Micheal Clayton's expansion?
Posted by: A.B | January 26, 2008 at 04:30 AM
I guess I'm disappointed that Cloverfield completely fell apart this weekend, but Im not that surprised. I guess this severely ruins its chances of reaching $100M.
Posted by: Ian | January 26, 2008 at 06:14 AM
If Cloverfield doesn't make it to $100 million, it will have broken the record for the biggest opening weekend for a movie that did not hit $100 million. Disappointing.
Posted by: J.I. | January 26, 2008 at 06:45 AM
I'm not that surprised the "Cloverfield" has bombed W2. I mean, its competition is a spoof movie and a sixth film about a geriatric going crazy on some poor souls from an unnamed Asian country.
I'm just disappointed that this game didn't have "4 Mons, 3 Wks, 2 Days".
Posted by: friskytiger81 | January 26, 2008 at 07:11 AM
Don't you mean Super Bowl XLII?
What do you have against Roman numerals?
Posted by: Rob | January 26, 2008 at 09:51 AM
Steve, As a Torontonian I'm very excited about How She Move getting a wide release in the U.S. I'm off to see in this afternoon, and understand that my beautiful city doesn't simply stand in for "insert American city here". My question, if it ends up making 4.3 million opening weekend, that seems pretty decent to me, in many weeks it would have broken into the top ten. But if it doesn't hit the top ten, given the number of theaters it's playing in, does that make it a disappointment, a bomb, or in the end is it more about it's R.O.I.?
Posted by: craig | January 27, 2008 at 07:44 AM