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Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

January 12, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: Reiner Hits New High as '€˜Bucket' Fills Up Box Office w/$19.5M; Ice Cube's '€˜Sunday'€™ Sweet w/$18.5M; 'Blood'€™ Flows to $1.9M on Just 129 Screens; Golden Globe Predictions and Results!

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rob Reiner'€™s The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) appears to have narrowly edged Sony'€™s First Sunday for a second day, although it'€™s a photo finish for Saturday. I'€™m estimating $8.12 million for the oldster road movie versus $7.87 million for the Ice Cube/Tracey Morgan comedy. Both films will likely come in above the three-day targets I set for them on Friday night.

After an anticipated 38 percent Sunday drop, I'm projecting that The Bucket List will finish the weekend with $19.56 million, making it Rob Reiner's best-ever opening, Jack Nicholson's fourth-best and Morgan Freeman's eighth-best. (For more details, scroll down and read my Friday Night report.) Meanwhile, First Sunday will perform a bit softer on Sunday and finish with a better-than-expected $18.5 million for the three-day.

Juno (Fox Searchlight) added another $5.84 million on Saturday, good for third place, and the multiple Golden Globe nominee will finish the weekend with $14 million and a new domestic cume of $71.2 million. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) discovered another $5.21 million, and the Nic Cage sequel will wrap up the three-day with an estimated $11.39 million and a total of $187.2 million domestic. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) rounds out the Top 5 for both Saturday ($4.35 million) and for the weekend ($8.88 million). By Monday morning, the CGI critters will have earned a couple hundred thousand dollars more than Book of Secrets overall, with $187.5 million.

It was a tough weekend for the other two new wide releases. The Pirates Who Don'€™t Do Anything: A VeggieTales Movie (Universal) harvested $1.98 million on Saturday, and it€™s three-day estimate stands at just $4.53 million. International schlockmeister Uwe Boll'€™s new movie In the Name of the King (Freestyle) has fared even worse, with a $1.03 million take on Saturday and a meager $2.65 million opening weekend.

The oddly anti-climactic Golden Globe winners will be announced tomorrow (Sunday) at 6 p.m. (Pacific) at the Beverly Hilton. The cancellation of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association'€™s annual party is the highest-profile casualty claimed so far by the WGA strike. This is a blow to the major studios, who refuse to budge in their negotiations with striking writers, but there are some unintended casualties of note: There are two kinds of movies in the awards sweepstakes. There are the big-budget studio projects that have already made back their budgets or wound up their runs successfully, finishing in the black. In this go-round, that includes films like American Gangster (Universal), Hairspray (New Line), Enchanted (Disney) and Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.).

Then, there are the movies that have been counting on the highly-rated Golden Globes telecast to help sell tickets. Winning is a bonus, but the reality is that the NBC show has been, in the past, what amounts to a three-hour commercial for the movie business. Even a nomination on the Globes telecast has been a boon to specialty films in recent years. Last year, for example, pictures like Babel, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, Volver and Venus all benefited from the attention that the HFPA provided.

The films that will be hurt most by the cancellation of the big show are probably Atonement (Focus), Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) and There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage). Atonement, which added $4.33 million this weekend for a new domestic cume of $25.2 million, is the sort of epic romance capable of riding awards season to $60 million-plus, but without Keira Knightley and James McAvoy on the red carpet, the film will be handicapped. Johnny Depp will likely win Best Actor (Comedy or Musical) for Sweeney, but now nobody will see him give an acceptance speech. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis and Blood.

Other specialty films that could have used some TV attention include The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax), The Savages (Paramount Vantage), The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM),  The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage), The Orphanage (Picturehouse) and Persepolis (Sony Classics). The Golden Globes remain a huge event for movie fans, however, even without red carpet arrivals, famous presenters and gushing acceptance speeches. Here are my picks:

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Atonement

Analysis: This is a three-horse race with No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood as the other contenders. My gut says that the international success of Atonement ($38.4 million overseas) will play a role, along with the fact that No Country and Blood may split the male vote.
Winner — Atonement
Mase's Tally: 1-1

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Julie Christie, Away From Her

Analysis: This is Christie's third Globe nomination, and first since Shampoo in 1975. She won the Oscar in 1965 for Darling, the same year she starred in the iconic Dr. Zhivago. There is an element of "€œlifetime achievement"€ here, but her heart-wrenching performance as an Alzheimer's patient is the crowning performance of her career. If there'€™s an upset, it'€™ll be either Keira Knightley or Angelina Jolie.
Winner — Christie
Mase's Tally: 2-2

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Analysis: This is a freight train that will roll all the way to Oscar night. Blood is a flawed film, and, for me, Day-Lewis overshoots the mark — but mine is the minority view. I could make a case for George Clooney, but why bother.
Winner — Day-Lewis
Mase's Tally: 3-3

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Analysis: Juno may be the betting favorite, but the magnitude of Tim Burton's accomplishment will carry the day. As with Dreamgirls last year, it is possible for Sweeney to win here and still be shut out of the Best Picture category at the Oscars.
Winner — Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Mase's Tally: 4-4

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

Analysis: This is the toughest category of the night. This Edith Piaf biopic was a major hit overseas with $71.6 million international, but Cotillard is anything but a slam dunk. In December, it seemed as though Amy Adams was the ingenue du jour, but now that appears to be Ellen Page. Even Bonham Carter can conceivably win in this race.
Winner — Cotillard
Mase's Tally: 5-5

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Analysis: He'€™s an international star who lives in France, plus he's been nominated seven times before. He cannot lose this time around. Despite that, Ryan Gosling'€™s performance in Lars and the Real Girl may be the best of 2007.
Winner — Depp
Mase's Tally: 6-6

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'€™m Not There

Analysis: Julia Roberts is window dressing. I don't think that Saoirse Ronan can win for haunting performance in Atonement, but she was amazing. Tilda Swinton was terrific in Michael Clayton, but this probably won'€™t be her spot either. That leaves Broadway'€™s Amy Ryan vs. double nominee Cate Blanchett. The HFPA will recognize Cate for inventing a performance that nobody else could have pulled off.
Winner — Blanchett
Mase's Tally: 7-7

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Analysis: 5 great performances, and, in an ordinary year, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Travolta or Tom Wilkinson could win, but this is not an ordinary year. The devil showed up wearing a page boy haircut in the new Coen Brothers movie, and Bardem will be picking up a lot of hardware.
Winner — Bardem
Mase's Tally: 8-8

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Ratatouille

Analysis: The Simpsons Movie makes this interesting, but Ratatouille is art. Disney + Pixar = Best Animated Feature.
Winner — Rataouille
Mase's Tally: 9-9

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Analysis: Stiff competition, but Julian Schnabel is the only filmmaker here who also shows up in the Best Director category.
Winner — The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Mase's Tally: 10-10

BEST DIRECTOR
The Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men

Analysis: I get the idea that the United States may be crazier about the Coens than the HFPA. Joel and Ethan are distinctly American auteurs. Joe Wright for Atonement and Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd could steal this prize.
Winner — Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Mase's Tally: 10-11

BEST SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno

Analysis: The HFPA likes to spread the wealth, meaning the Coens won't win screenplay. Diablo Cody, the stripper-turned-screenwriter, should win for Juno besting the smartly-crafted Aaron Sorkin screenplay for Charlie Wilson'€™s War.
Winner — Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Mase's Tally: 10-12

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marinelli, Atonement

Analysis: Could the Globes really call Clint Eastwood'€™s name for Grace is Gone? Of course. I say, however, that they will choose to honor Marianelli'€™s hypnotically-beautiful, Phillip Glass-like score for Atonement.
Winner — Marinelli
Mase's Tally: 11-13

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"€œGuaranteed"€ by Eddie Vedder, Into the Wild

Analysis: Again, Eastwood has a shot, but this will more likely come down to Vedder versus Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz for "€œThat'€™s How You Know" from Enchanted. Despite the HFPA'€™s dislike for Sean Penn, they'€™ll hold their noses and give this award to the former Pearl Jam lead.
Winner — "Guaranteed"
Mase's Tally: 12-14

Enjoy the Golden Globes press conference! Here are my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Early Saturday and Revised Three-Day Estimates:

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $8.12 million, $2,792 PTA [$15.9 million cume]
2. NEW First Sunday (Sony) — $7.87 million, $3,557 PTA [$14.02 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $5.84 million, $2,386 PTA [$67.7 million cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $5.21 million, $1,545 PTA [$184.2 million cume]
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $4.35 million, $1,257 PTA [$184.9 million cume]
6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $3.88 million, $1,159 PTA [$238.6 million cume]
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $2.79 million, $1,248 PTA [$19.4 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $2.07 million, $893 PTA [$45.7 million cume]
9. NEW Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $1.98 million, $1,481 PTA [$3.1 million cume] 10. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $1.84 million, $768 PTA [$58.4 million cume]
11. Atonement (Focus) — $1.8 million, $1,901 PTA [$24 million cume]
12. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $1.59 million, $636 PTA [$34.1 million cume]
13. Sweeney Todd
: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.46 million, $1,108 PTA [$43.1 million cume]
14. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $1.09 million, $849 PTA [$25.1 million cume]
15. NEW In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) — $1.03 million, $644 PTA [$2 million cume] 16. Enchanted (Disney) — $880,000, $733 PTA [$121.8 million cume]
17. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $825,000, $1,167 PTA [$2.6 million cume]
18. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $760,000 $5,891 PTA [$3.7 million cume]
19. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $645,000, $902 PTA [$10.4 million cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $640,000, $464 PTA [$39.6 million cume]
21. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $535,000, $656 PTA [$67.2 million cume]
22. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $520,000, $791 PTA [$46.5 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $141,000, $1,880 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $130,000, $1,413 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $56,000, $5,091 [$450,000 cume]
* Heartbeat Detector (Independent) — $2,789, $2,789 PTA [$4,767 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $19.56 million, $6,722 PTA [$20.99 million cume]
2. NEW First Sunday (Sony) — $18.5 million, $8,364 PTA [$18.5 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $14 million, $5,721 PTA [$71.25 million cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $11.39 million, $3,375 PTA [$187.2 million cume]
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $8.88 million, $2,567 PTA [$187.5 million cume]
6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $8.6 million, $2,567 PTA [$240.7 million cume]
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $6.42 million, $2,869 PTA [$20.9 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $4.93 million, $2,126 PTA [$46.9 million cume]
9. NEW Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $4.53 million, $3,389 PTA [$4.53 million cume]
10. Atonement (Focus) — $4.26 million, $4,495 PTA [$25.17 million cume]
11. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $4.22 million, $1,755 PTA [$59.4 million cume]
12. Sweeney Todd
: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.48 million, $2,637 PTA [$44.1 million cume]
13. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $3.32 million, $1,327 PTA [$35.1 million cume] 14. NEW In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) — $2.65 million, $1,657 PTA [$2.65 million cume]
15. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $2.44 million, $1,893 PTA [$25.7 million cume]
16. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $2.03 million, $2,877 PTA [$3.1 million cume]
17. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.93 million, $14,963 PTA [$4.3 million cume]
18. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.86 million, $1,555 PTA [$122.4 million cume]
19. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.54 million, $2,155 PTA [$10.8 million cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $1.48 million, $1,078 PTA [$40 million cume]
21. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.23 million, $1,876 PTA [$46.7 million cume]
22. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.18 million, $1,452 PTA [$67.6 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $372,000, $4,960 PTA [$1.9 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $309,000, $3,359 PTA [$3 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $140,000, $12,727 [$493,000 cume]
* Heartbeat Detector (Independent) — $6,580, $6,580 PTA [$6,580 cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: The star power of Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman has lifted The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) to a solid $6 million Friday in its expansion to 2,911 locations, and the oldster road comedy will give director Rob Reiner the best opening of his career. After opening to $10,000-plus per location on 16 screens on Christmas Day, the movie delivered solid numbers for 17 days, and, although there are no Oscar nominations in the offing, The Bucket List will grab $18.6 million over the three-day weekend, bringing its new cume to just over $20 million.

After winning two Emmys for his role as Meathead on All in the Family in the 1970€™s, Reiner established himself as one of the most original directors of the '80s and '90s with seminal films like This Is Spinal Tap, Stand By Me, The Princess Bride and When Harry Met Sally. Then he was an Oscar nominee for A Few Good Men, which went on to gross $141.3 million domestic. He has not, however, had a major box office or critical success since 1995'€™s The American President.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 ROB REINER WIDE OPENINGS
1. The Bucket List — $18.6 million (Estimate)
2. A Few Good Men — $15.5 million
3. Misery — $10.07 million
4. The American President — $10.01 million
5. The Story of Us — $9.6 million
6. When Harry Met Sally — $8.8 million
7. Alex & Emma — $6.1 million
8. Rumor Has It — $3.4 million
9. The Sure Thing — $3.1 million
10. North — $3 million

Warner Bros. gave Bucket List a limited holiday release with the hopes of winning the attention of Academy Awards voters, but the film has met with lukewarm-to-negative reviews (only 40 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes), and not even the star-crazed Hollywood Foreign Press Association could figure out a way to nominate Jack Nicholson. Still, for Jack, this movie will mark the fourth-best wide opening of his career:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 JACK NICHOLSON WIDE OPENINGS
1. Anger Management — $42.2 million
2. Batman — $40.4 million
3. The Departed — $26.8 million
4. The Bucket List — $18.6 million (Estimate)
5. Wolf — $17.9 million
6. Something'€™s Gotta Give — $16 million
7. A Few Good Men — $15.5 million
8. As Good As It Gets — $12.6 million
9. The Witches of Eastwick — $9.4 million
10. Mars Attacks! — $9.3 million

Meanwhile, The Bucket List becomes the No. 8 opening of the venerable Morgan Freeman'€™s career:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MORGAN FREEMAN WIDE OPENINGS
1. War of the Worlds — $77.1 million
2. Bruce Almighty — $67.9 million
3. Batman Begins — $48.7 million
4. Deep Impact — $41.1 million
5. Evan Almighty — $31.19 million
6. The Sum of All Fears — $31.17 million
7. Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves — $25.6 million
8. The Bucket List — $18.6 million (Estimate)
9. Along Came a Spider — $16.7 million
10. Dreamcatcher — $15.02 million

It appears that the broad comedy First Sunday (Sony) is No. 2 both for Friday and the weekend, with a better-than-expected performance. With a cast that includes Ice Cube, Tracy Morgan and Katt Williams, the movie has opened with downright horrible reviews (17 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes), but it'€™s bulletproof at the box office. First Sunday grabbed $5.75 million on opening day, and it will finish the weekend with an estimated $17.25 million. Ice Cube, a founding member of the gangsta rap group N.W.A., continues to build an impressive box office resume with First Sunday likely becoming the fourth-best opening of his career:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 ICE CUBE OPENINGS
1. Barbershop 2: Back in Business — $24.2 million
2. Barbershop — $20.6 million
3. Are We There Yet? — $18.5 million
4. First Sunday — $17.25 million (Estimate)
5. Anaconda — $16.6 million
6. Three Kings — $15.8 million
7. Next Friday — $14.4 million
8. Are We Done Yet? — $14.2 million
9. Higher Learning — $13.2 million
10. Friday After Next — $13 million

This also marks another successful opening for a film with a predominantly black cast. Looking at the last 12 months, there are two double-digit openings for Tyler Perry, now an established African-American star, but First Sunday is the sixth three-day opening of $10 million or more.

TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR MOVIES WITH PREDOMINANTLY BLACK CASTS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
1. Stomp the Yard — $21.8 million
2. Tyler Perry'€™s Why Did I Get Married? — $21.3 million
3. This Christmas — $17.9 million
4. First Sunday — $17.25 million (estimate)
5. Are We Done Yet? — $14.2 million
6. Tyler Perry'™s Daddy'€™s Little Girls — $11.2 million
7. The Great Debaters — $6 million
8. I Think I Love My Wife — $5.6 million
9. Pride — $3.5 million
10. Who's Your Caddy? — $2.7 million

Juno (Fox Searchlight) expanded to almost 2,500 locations, but still dipped by 20 percent Friday-to-Friday. The buzzed-about indie sensation, which should soon have multiple Oscar nominations (Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay noms are sure things, and a Best Picture nod is a definite possibility), generated $4.25 million on Friday for a new domestic box office total of $61.5 million. It will finish the weekend with $13.17 million and, by Monday morning, Juno will nudge past the $70 million mark.

National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) added $3.5 million to start the three-day, and the Nicolas Cage sequel is headed for an $11.2 million weekend a new cume of just under $180 million. Will Smith'€™s I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) rounds out the Top 5 with an estimated $2.6 million Friday and a likely weekend take of $8.3 million or so.

There are two other new wide releases that have met with disappointing results. Universal's The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything: A VeggieTales Movie managed only $1.2 million on Friday. The Christian-themed animated film will likely finish the weekend at No. 9 with an estimated $4.56 million. Meanwhile, video-game adaptation In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale (Freestyle Releasing), another Uwe Boll schlockfest, only sold $950,000 worth of tickets on opening day, and it'€™s headed for a meager $2.8 million weekend.

Counting down to the anti-climactic Golden Globes press conference on Sunday, There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) has expanded with wildly successful results. The Paul Thomas Anderson-directed adaptation of the Upton Sinclair novel Oil is now at 127 locations, and it registered over $600,000 for the day for a per screen average of over $4,600. With a searing performance from Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, who will almost certainly claim the Golden Globe for Best Actor (Drama) on Sunday night, Blood will register an estimated $2.16 million weekend and a three-day PTA of $16,787.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $6 million, $2,061 PTA [$7.4 million cume]
2. NEW First Sunday (Sony) — $5.75 million, $2,598 PTA [$5.75 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.25 million, $1,736 PTA [$61.5 million cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $3.5 million, $1,046 PTA [$179.3 million cume]
5. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $2.6 million, $775 PTA [$234.7 million cume]
6. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $2.03 million, $2,321 PTA [$5.2 million cume]
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $1.8 million, $522 PTA [$180.4 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $1.64 million, $709 PTA [$43.6 million cume]
9. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $1.36 million, $565 PTA [$56.5 million cume]
10. NEW Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $1.2 million, $895 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
11. Atonement (Focus) — $1.17 million, $1,236 PTA [$22 million cume]
12. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.01 million, $766 PTA [$41.6 million cume]
13. NEW In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) — $950,000, $475 PTA [$950,000 cume]
14. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $728,164, $564 PTA [$24 million cume]
15. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $687,818, $274 PTA [$32.5 million cume]
16. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $601,521 $4,663 PTA [$3 million cume]
17. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $595,574, $842 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
18. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $449,966, $629 PTA [$9.7 million cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $423.038, $307 PTA [$39 million cume]
* Enchanted (Disney) — $416,276, $347 PTA [$120.9 million cume]
* No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $385,000, $586 PTA [$45.9 million cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $244,200, $299 PTA [$66.6 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $86,448, $1,153 PTA [$1.6 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $79,679, $866 PTA [$2.7 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $39,723, $3,611 [$393,000 cume]
* Heartbeat Detector (Independent) — $1,978, $1,978 PTA [$1,978 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $18.6 million, $6,390 PTA [$20 million cume]
2. NEW First Sunday (Sony) — $17.25 million, $7,795 PTA [$17.25 million cume]
3. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $13.17 million, $5,382 PTA [$70.4 million cume]
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $11.2 million, $3,317 PTA [$187 million cume]
5. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $8.32 million, $2,481 PTA [$240.4 million cume]
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $6.14 million, $1,776 PTA [$184.7 million cume]
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) — $6.1 million, $2,724 PTA [$20.6 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $5.1 million, $2,197 PTA [$47.1 million cume]
9. NEW Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) — $4.56 million, $3,411 PTA [$4.56 million cume]
10. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $4.35 million, $1,809 PTA [$59.5 million cume]
11. Atonement (Focus) — $3.99 million, $4,202 PTA [$24.9 million cume]
12. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.24 million, $2,450 PTA [$43.9 million cume]
13. NEW In the Name of the King (Freestyle Releasing) — $2.8 million, $1,746 PTA [$2.8 million cume]
14. The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $2.36 million, $1,835 PTA [$25.6 million cume]
15. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $2.3 million, $919 PTA [$34.1 million cume]
16. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $2.16 million, $16,787 PTA [$4.5 million cume]
17. The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $2.02 million, $2,864 PTA [$3.1 million cume]
18. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.55 million, $2,171 PTA [$10.8 million cume]
19. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.35 million, $1,126 PTA [$121.9 million cume]
20. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $1.33 million, $967 PTA [$39.9 million cume]
* No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.27 million, $1,934 PTA [$46.8 million cume]
* The Golden Compass (New Line) — $854,700, $1,047 PTA [$67.2 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $337,145, $4,495 PTA [$1.8 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $298,797, $3,248 PTA [$3 million cume]
* Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $144,987, $13,191 [$500,000 cume]
* Heartbeat Detector (Independent) — $6,626, $6,626 PTA [$6,626 cume]

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Posted at 01:51 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

Looks like it will be a great competition for first place. Juno's drop is disappointing but it still had an amazing run. And unfortunately, this might be the only week Bucket List does something as the monster known as Cloverfield is set to open next week.

Posted by: JackO | January 12, 2008 at 06:40 AM

"The Bucket List" will drop, because it's a terrible film and word of mouth will kill it. Hopefully.

Posted by: Movie Fan | January 12, 2008 at 12:52 PM

27 Dresses is going to be huge. Watch out for the upset of the year when Cloverfield comes in with 26 and 27 Dresses does 27 mill.

Posted by: aadams | January 14, 2008 at 07:25 AM

The only thing that will kill Bucket List is it's 50% drop, 27 Dresses, and a little film called Cloverfield. If it word of mouth was a problem, then it would have flamed out when it was in limited release . . . .

Posted by: JackO | January 14, 2008 at 10:44 AM

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