WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Cloverfield' Set to Grab $21M-$23M; 'Meet the Spartans' Likely No. 2 With Just Shy of $20M; 'Rambo' at No. 3 w/$15M-$18M!
by Steve Mason
THURSDAY NIGHT: Film industry tracking points to a repeat win for Cloverfield this weekend. History points to a 50 percent-55 percent drop for the J.J. Abrams-produced monster flick, which would shrink it's weekend haul down to a likely $21 million-$23 million. The battle will be for No. 2, and I’m calling for an upset.
The Jason Friedberg/Aaron Seltzer spoof movie Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) has an overall First Choice number of 13 percent compared to 11 percent for Rambo (Lionsgate). The 300 send-up also outscores the Stallone sequel with Under 25 Males, 32 percent to 19 percent. Those young males are the most reliable demo there is. When Under 25 Males say they're interested, they tend to show up. Spartans is likely to finish second for the weekend with between $19 million and $22 million. Meanwhile, Stallone's Rambo return looks like it will probably finish in the $15 million-$18 million range. Holdover 27 Dresses should wind up fourth with a 35 percent-40 percent drop, and a $13 million-$15 million second weekend.
As for the other two new wide releases, the Diane Lane techno thriller Untraceable (Sony) is tracking surprisingly well with young females (10 percent First Choice) and softer (7 percent) with Females 25 Plus. That will translate to something in the $8 million-$10 million range. Paramount Vantage's How She Move appears to be a non-starter, with a meager 3 percent First Choice according to the most recent tracker. I'm assuming that urban moviegoers are a bit under-sampled and foresee $4 million-$6 million for the three-day.
A number of Oscar nominees are expanding, giving them a chance to pad their totals. Best Picture nominees No Country For Old Men (Miramax) and Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) both expand to over 1,000 screens, and Atonement moves its screen count to 1,400. Also There Will Be Blood (Paramont Vantage) adds almost 500 locations, to just under 900 screens.
Here are my weekend predictions for Friday-Sunday, Jan. 25-27:
1. Cloverfield — $22.75 million
2. Meet the Spartans — $19.5 million
3. Rambo — $17 million
4. 27 Dresses — $14.75 million
5. Untraceable — $9 million
6. Juno — $7 million
7. How She Move — $5.25 million
8. There Will Be Blood — $5.1 million
9. Mad Money — $5 million
10. National Treasure: Book of Secrets — $4.7 million
11. Alvin and the Chipmunks — $4.6 million
12. First Sunday — $4.5 million
* Atonement — $3.9 million
* Michael Clayton — $2.25 million
* No Country For Old Men — $1.4 million
What about The Bucket List??
Posted by: Azure | January 24, 2008 at 10:51 PM
Mase,
Spartans to out due Epic Movie? No way. 13.5 tops. Can a movie like cloverfield benefit from strong word of mouth?
Rambo a strong 25m. Watch out.
Posted by: aadams | January 25, 2008 at 07:48 AM
Forget about J.J. Abrams and Sly Stallone. The real fight is for 5th place. I can see Juno, Bucket, How She Move, Untraceable, and TWBB all fighting for it. I am going with How She Move for a surprise 5th place finish over Bucket.
Posted by: JackO | January 25, 2008 at 08:09 AM
Does anyone else feel like going to a cinema and beating everyone who buys a ticket for meet the spartans?
Posted by: A.B | January 25, 2008 at 12:19 PM
To A.B: Yes. Sadly, people are overwhelmingly stupid. Granted, there's a place in the world for mindless humor, but I prefer mine to be somewhat original . . . and to actually be funny.
Posted by: spike | January 25, 2008 at 05:35 PM