WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Semi-Pro' Gets Stuffed w/$15.1M!; 'Vantage Point' Guns for No. 2; 'Boleyn Girl' Modest w/$8.25M; 'Penelope' at No. 9 w/$3.9M; 'Counterfeiters' Wins PTA!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: There was no Saturday miracle for New Line's Will Ferrell comedy Semi-Pro. The R-rated comedy managed only a 10 percent bump for an estimated $6.1 million. The tepidly-reviewed comedy will finish its opening weekend with a disastrous $15.16 million, as New Line goes out with a whimper, not a bang. Semi-Pro is only the eighth-best opening of Ferrell's career (scroll down to my Friday report for a complete list of the All-Time Top 10 Live-Action Will Ferrell Openings).
Last weekend's champ, Vantage Point (Sony), had a very strong Saturday, up 64 percent, to finish in a virtual dead heat for the daily crown with a likely $6.09 million. The assassination thriller will wrap up the weekend with a very solid $13.58 million, and a new 10-day cume of $41.5 million. The family fantasy film The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) received a massive 125 percent bounce on its third Saturday with $4.27 million. The $100 million-plus budgeted franchise-starter should finish with a three-day of just over $9 million. 20th Century Fox's Jumper was No. 4 for the day with $3.63 million, but it will likely slip back to fifth place for the weekend with $7.95 million. Sony's The Other Boleyn Girl was up 18 percent on its second day for a solid $3.33 million. The Natalie Portman-Scarlett Johansson hissies-'n'-historical-hanky-panky heartbreaker should wind up No. 4 for the three-day with an $8.25 million haul.
In the PTA race, Foreign Language Film Oscar winner The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) is the big winner with nearly $16,000 per screen for the weekend. The Other Boleyn Girl is No. 2, with an estimated $7,000 per location, followed by Israeli Film Academy Best Picture winner The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) with an estimated $6,000 at each of its 59 engagements.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Semi-Pro (New Line) — $6.1 million, $1,956 PTA, $11.55 million cume
2. Vantage Point (Sony) — $6.09 million, $1,934 PTA, $37.8 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $4.27 million, $1,170 PTA, $52.5 million cume
4. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $3.63 million, $1,161 PTA, $65 million cume
5. NEW The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $3.33 million, $2,859 PTA, $6.15 million cume
6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $2.74 million, $1,085 PTA, $47.3 million cume
7. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $2,19 million, $773 PTA, $57.9 million cume
8. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $1.98 million, $975 PTA, $68.5M
9. NEW Penelope (Summit) — $1.68 million, $1,405 PA, $2.73 million cume
10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.61 million, $993 PTA, $134.3 million cume
11. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $1.57 million, $721 PTA, $25.8 million cume
12. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $1.38 million, $997 PTA, $38.5 million cume
13. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $985,000, $1,216 PTA, $6.6 million cume
14. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $875,000, $559 PTA, $87.2 million cume
15. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $735,000, $589 PTA, $37.1 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $338,000, $1,457 PTA, $3.4 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $164,000, $2,780 PTA, $685,000 cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $129,000, $7,167 PTA, $334,000
* NEW Bonneville (Sen Arts/Scranton Lacy Films) — $73,000, $723 PTA, $126,000 cume
* NEW City of Men (Miramax) — $56,000, $747 PTA, $93,000 cume
* NEW Chicago 10 (Roadside Attractions) — $22,000, $1,571 PTA, $33,000 cume
* NEW Romulus, My Father (Magnolia) — $1,106, $553 PTA, $1,386 cume
* NEW Contre-enquete (Counter-Survey) — $952- $317 PTA, $2,352 cume
* NEW The Unforeseen (Cinema Guild) — $891, $891 PTA, $1,977 cume
* NEW Vivere (Regent Releasing) — $400, $400 PTA, $621 cume
* NEW Beyond Belief (Film Sales Company) — $298, $298 PTA, $502 cume
* NEW The Lost (Anchor Bay) — $234, $234 PTA, $1,403 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Semi-Pro (New Line) — $15.16 million, $4,858 PTA, $15.16 million cume
2. Vantage Point (Sony) — $13.58 million, $4,313 PTA, $41.5 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $9 million, $2,485 PTA, $55.4 million cume
4. NEW The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $8.25 million, $7,083 PTA, $8.25 million cume
5. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $7.95 million, $2,542 PTA, $67.1 million cume
6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $6.07 million, $2,404 PTA, $48.9 million cume
7. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $4.88 million, $1,718 PTA, $59.2 million cume
8. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $4.31 million, $2,120PTA, $69.8M
9. NEW Penelope (Summit) — $3.78 million, $3,168 PTA, $3.78 million cume
10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.63M- $2,229 PTA, $135.4 million cume
11. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $3.54 million, $1,620 PTA, $26.8 million cume
12. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $2.9 million, $2,085 PTA, $39.3 million cume
13. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $2.24 million, $2,772 PTA, $7.2 million cume
14. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.88 million, $1,206 PTA, $87.7 million cume
15. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.63 million, $1,310 PTA, $37.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $750,000, $3,233 PTA, $3.6 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $354,000, $6,000 PTA, $808,000 cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $284,000, $15,778 PTA, $429,000
* NEW Bonneville (Sen Arts/Scranton Lacy Films) — $178,000, $1,762 PTA, $178,000 cume
* NEW City of Men (Miramax) — $131,000, $1,747 PTA, $131,000 cume
* NEW Chicago 10 (Roadside Attractions) — $48,000, $3,429 PTA, $48,000 cume
* NEW Contre-enquete (Counter-Survey) — $2,971, $990 PTA, $2,971 cume
* NEW The Unforeseen (Cinema Guild) — $2,555, $2,555 PTA, $2,555 cume
* NEW Romulus, My Father (Magnolia) — $2,083, $1,041 PTA, $2,083 cume
* NEW The Lost (Anchor Bay) — $1,555, $1,555 PTA, $1,555 cume
* NEW Vivere (Regent Releasing) — $873, $873 PTA, $873 cume
* NEW Beyond Belief (Film Sales Company) — $689, $689 PTA, $689 cume
FRIDAY NIGHT: Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro has tanked, ending a disastrous week for New Line. Not only did the studio cease business as a full-fledged studio on Thursday, now its '70s-style basketball comedy managed only $5 million on Friday, and it is likely headed for a meager $14.3 million for the weekend. That would make Semi-Pro only the ninth-best opening of Farrell's career.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 WILL FERRELL LIVE ACTION OPENINGS
1. Talladega Nights — $47 million
2. Blades of Glory — $33 million
3. Elf — $31.1 million
4. Anchorman — $28.4 million
5. Kicking & Screaming — $20.15 million
6. Bewitched — $20.13 million
7. Old School — $17.4 million
8. Zoolander — $15.5 million
9. Semi-Pro — $14.3 million (Estimated)
10. Stranger Than Fiction — $13.4 million
The failure of Semi-Pro puts an exclamation point at the end of a long losing streak for New Line that has resulted in Time Warner's decision this week to fold it into Warner Bros. Bob Shaye and Michael Lynne have been sent packing after a stretch that has included bombs like Rendition ($9.7 million cume), Martian Child ($7.5 million cume), The Last Mimzy (directed by Shaye himself and generating only $21.4 million domestic), Over Her Dead Body ($7.49 million cume to-date) and the high-profile, mega-budgeted The Golden Compass ($70 million cume in the States, but with a healthy $260 million in foreign sales, for a worldwide cume of $330 million).
Sony's Vantage Point grabbed another $3.8 million on Friday, and the assassination thriller should finish its second weekend with about $12 million, good for second place. The studio gambled by releasing this high-end commercial film with an A-list cast on Oscar weekend, and it has paid off. Vantage Point will have banked an estimated $40 million by Monday morning. Another Sony film, The Other Boleyn Girl, has debuted solidly on 1,166 screens, delivering $2.9 million on opening day for a $2,487 PTA. Based on Philippa Gregory's best-selling novel and starring Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson, this hotties-'n'-hoochieism history lesson will likely finish the frame with a more-than-respectable $8.5 million.
Holdovers Jumper (20th Century Fox) and The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) finished 4-5 on Friday, with, respectively, $2.1 million and $1.8 million. Family audiences should lift Spiderwick to No. 4 on the weekend, however, with a haul of $8.1 million and a new cume of $54.4 million, compared to an estimated weekend cash grab of $7.5 million for Jumper, with a new cume of $66.7 million. Penelope, the well-reviewed fairy tale being released by Summit Entertainment, has failed to connect with audiences. Despite the presence of Golden Globe nominees Christina Ricci and James McAvoy and Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon, the fantasy yarn has only delivered $1.1 million to start the weekend. Penelope will likely finish the weekend at No. 10, with $3.1 million.
Of the eight limited specialty releases, Bonneville (Sen Arts/Scranton Lacy Films) appears to be the most successful. With a cast that includes Kathy Bates, Jessica Lange, Joan Allen and Christine Baranski, Bonneville is drawing an older audience at 101 locations. The movie sold $53,000 in admissions on Friday, and it'll finish just over $185,000 for the weekend. Best Foreign Language Film Oscar winner The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) looks like the PTA winner for the weekend, at 18 locations. It delivered $3,333 per screen on Friday and will probably score $13,000 or so for the weekend. The Other Boleyn Girl will likely finish No. 2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Semi-Pro (New Line) — $5 million, $1,602 PTA, $5 million cume
2. Vantage Point (Sony) — $3.8 million, $1,206 PTA, $31.8 million cume
3. NEW The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $2.9 million, $2,487 PTA, $2.9 million cume
4. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $2.1 million, $671 PTA, $61.3 million cume
5. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $1.8 million, $493 PTA, $48.1 million cume
6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $1.65 million, $654 PTA, $44.5 million cume
7. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $1.28 million, $453 PTA, $55.6 million cume
8. NEW Penelope (Summit) — $1.1 million, $920 PTA, $1.1 million cume
9. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $995,000, $455 PTA, $24.2 million cume
10. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $925,000, $454 PTA, $66.5M
11. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $850,000, $521 PTA, $132.6 million cume
12. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $675,000, $833 PTA, $5.7 million cume
13. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $620,000, $445 PTA, $37.1 million cume
14. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $445,000, $284 PTA, $86.3 million cume
15. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $395,000, $317 PTA, $36.4 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $187,000, $806 PTA, $3.1 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $67,000, $1,136 PTA, $521,000 cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $60,000, $3,333 PTA, $205,000
* NEW Bonneville (Sen Arts/Scranton Lacy Films) — $53,000, $525 PTA, $53,000 cume
* NEW City of Men (Miramax) — $37,000, $493 PTA, $37,000 cume
* NEW Chicago 10 (Roadside Attractions) — $11,000, $786 PTA, $11,000 cume
* NEW Contre-enquete (Counter-Survey) — $1,400, $467 PTA, $1,400 cume
* NEW The Lost (Anchor Bay) — $1,169, $1,169 PTA, $1,169 cume
* NEW The Unforeseen (Cinema Guild) — $1,086, $1,086 PTA, $1,086 cume
* NEW Romulus, My Father (Magnolia) — $280, $140 PTA, $280 cume
* NEW Vivere (Regent Releasing) — $221, $221 PTA, $221 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Semi-Pro (New Line) — $14.3 million, $4,582 PTA, $14.3 million cume
2. Vantage Point (Sony) — $12 million, $3,810 PTA, $40 million cume
3. NEW The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $8.5 million, $7,290 PTA, $8.5 million cume
4. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $8.1 million, $2,217 PTA, $54.4 million cume
5. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $7.5 million, $2,398 PTA, $66.7 million cume
6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $5.5 million, $2,176 PTA, $48.3 million cume
7. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $4.5 million, $1,582 PTA, $58.8 million cume
8. No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $3.33 million, $1,635 PTA, $68.8M
9. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.14M- $1,928 PTA, $134.9 million cume
10. NEW Penelope (Summit) — $3.1 million, $2,592 PTA, $3.1 million cume
11. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $2.98 million, $1,364 PTA, $26.2 million cume
12. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $2.23 million, $1,602 PTA, $38.7 million cume
13. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $2.19 million, $2,708 PTA, $7.22 million cume
14. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.62 million, $1,038 PTA, $87.5 million cume
15. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.54 million, $1,234 PTA, $37.5 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $720,000, $3,103 PTA, $3.7 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $295,000, $5,000 PTA, $749,000 cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $235,000, $13,056 PTA, $380,000
* NEW Bonneville (Sen Arts/Scranton Lacy Films) — $185,500, $1,837 PTA, $185,500 cume
* NEW City of Men (Miramax) — $133,200, $1,776 PTA, $133,200 cume
* NEW Chicago 10 (Roadside Attractions) — $35,000, $2,500 PTA, $35,000 cume
* NEW Contre-enquete (Counter-Survey) — $5,000, $1,667 PTA, $5,000 cume
* NEW The Unforeseen (Cinema Guild) — $3,800, $3,800 PTA, $3,800 cume
* NEW The Lost (Anchor Bay) — $3,700, $3,700 PTA, $3,700 cume
* NEW Romulus, My Father (Magnolia) — $1,000, $500 PTA, $1,000 cume
* NEW Vivere (Regent Releasing) — $729, $729 PTA, $729 cume
* NEW Beyond Belief (Film Sales Company) — $704, $704 PTA, $704 cume
Yeah, nice call on that $42-45 million prediction earlier...
Posted by: gradystiles | March 01, 2008 at 01:07 AM
wow, Semi-pro, what a dud.
Posted by: Flashing-Lights | March 01, 2008 at 01:12 AM
Rightfully so for New Line. How could they screw up a sure thing as Ferrell?
Posted by: d0nnie_dark0 | March 01, 2008 at 01:16 AM
Easily. By having it rated R. Talladega and Blades of Glory succeeded by appealing to an audience of kids and adults. Now that you take the kids out of the picture, it was not as likely to be as big. But I wasn't expecting it to be this bad. Sucks to be New Line.
Posted by: Con | March 01, 2008 at 05:43 AM
Yeah, I was surprised there weren't longer lines at my local multiplex at 6:45 last night. Guess Semi-Pro failing would do it.
Posted by: dranscht | March 01, 2008 at 06:50 AM
GAAHHHH.!
I've been thinking for weeks that Semi-Pro was going to flop. I just didn't feel the magic behind it and knew it was going to do poorly. Then I saw the tracking and sold my put options on it over at HSX. So now instead of earning $200K I lose $40K. Thank God the movies "opened" so fast on here or I'd have it on my roster.
Bleh. I called it though :) Now we have one more reason why New Line is going under.
Posted by: apollokthx | March 01, 2008 at 07:52 AM
I guess this shows that people went to see all of those other Will Farrell movies because they looked funny, not just because Will Farrell is in them.
Posted by: J.I. | March 01, 2008 at 08:54 AM
Dude, this just completely makes my week. I love Ferrell but "Semi-Pro" just looked completely bland. I'm glad I didn't buy in to the tracking which needless to say was, monumentally off. I'm glad I skipped it on all my slates. Gotta love that gut feeling!!
Posted by: Stev | March 01, 2008 at 02:51 PM
Hey apollo, you're not alone. I did the exact same thing sith my Semi-Pro Put option on HSX. Made me lose out on 200K as well. But I did have an idea this would happen...
Posted by: annyonggob888 | March 01, 2008 at 09:22 PM
I think Steve is having a bad week in here and over at HSX board...but lets give the guy a break...yea he screwed up semi-pro pretty bad this week but haven't we all had bad weekends? Besides I don't think anyone imagined it would tank this bad.
Also on friday nights (into the wee hours of saturday morn) when wer'e all anxious for someone to give us fridays results Steve is always the first guy to give us a good idea of how the weekend is turning out. So my opinion...Lets cut this guy some slack.
Posted by: tonyj5 | March 01, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Hey all,
Sorry to those that got burned by SEMI-PRO. My sources were very optimistic when they analyzed the tracking. In the end, always remember that predictions are just educated guesses, and audiences are very unpredictable.
This reminds me a little of GRINDHOUSE which also had good tracking and tanked badly.
It sounds like this is a case of the R-rating and some Ferrell fatigue. I don't know anybody, including Variety and Hollywood Reporter, that had this at less than $25M
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | March 02, 2008 at 10:59 PM