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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

February 23, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Vantage Point' Targets No. 1 w/$23.8M opening; 'Spiderwick' Headed for $13.3M in Second Weekend; 'Jumper' Gets $12.6M; 'Band's Visit' Wins PTA Crown!

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: Sony may not have a serious Oscar contender at tomorrow night's 80th Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre, but they still have a big winner this weekend. Vantage Point, which some have compared to Akira Kurosawa's Rashomon, received a nice 22 percent Saturday bounce from its opening day, adding another $9.76 million. The Oscars telecast makes Sunday tougher than usual to project, but I'm calling for a 38 percent drop. That would give the Pete Travis-directed assassination thriller a better-than-expected $23.8 million weekend.

The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), was up over 100 percent from Friday, and the family fantasy film delivered a $6.18 million Saturday. That puts the $100 million-budgeted franchise wannabe on target for a $13.3 million second weekend and a new cume of $44.2 million by Monday morning.

20th Century Fox's Jumper leapt to $5.66 million on its second Saturday, and it'll finish No. 3 for the weekend with a likely $12.68 million. Step Up 2 the Streets, Disney's low-budget urban dance sequel, posted another $4.29 million today, and that should translate to a fourth-place finish with just over $10 million for the frame. The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson rom-com Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) rounds out the Top 5 with $3.1 million Saturday and an anticipated $6.99 million for the weekend, putting the tepidly-reviewed film above the $50 million mark in domestic sales.

I've had a tough time trying to figure out just how well U2 3D (National Geographic) has been performing this weekend. If you scroll down, you'll see that last night, I projected $800,000 for Friday and $3.36 million for the weekend. I overshot the film's performance considerably. National Geographic is a rookie distributor, and I've learned that they accepted partial schedules at many of the 686 Digital 3D locations that opened the concert film yesterday. The majority of new playdates for U2 3D share the screen with Hannah Montana (Disney), and in some locales, Bono and friends are only getting 1 or 2 shows per day.

As a result, U2 3D only managed $315,000 on Friday, another $400,000 today, and it will finish with about $1 million for the weekend. In fact, Hannah Montana has dramatically outpaced the older-skewing band's effort with $810,000 Saturday and an estimated $1.73 million for the three-day. By the time Miley Cyrus steps onto the stage at the Kodak as a presenter, her Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour movie will have banked about $61.4 million domestic.

New releases Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) will finish the weekend at No. 12 and No. 13 respectively, with the Larry the Cable Guy comedy limping to about $300,000 more in ticket sales than the high school laffer.

In the PTA race, it appears that The Band's Visit (Sony Classics), a big winner at the Israeli Film Academy Awards, will capture the crown with $126,000 or so for the weekend and about $15,750 per location. IFC Films's The Duchess of Langeais will likely finish No. 2, with a weekend PTA of approximately $10,000, followed by the likely Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film, The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics), which debuted with an estimated $9,000-plus three-day PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Vantage Point (Sony) — $9.76 million, $3,099 PTA, $17.76 million cume
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $6.18 million, $1,606 PTA, $40.1 million cume
3. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $5.66 million, $1,651 PTA, $53 million cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $4.29 million, $1,732 PTA, $38.9 million cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $3.1 million, $1,008 PTA, $51.2 million cume
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $2.36 million, $1,065 PTA, $20.5 million cume
7. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $2.07 million, $1,109 PTA -  $34.6 million cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.05 million, $1.188 PTA, $129.4 million cume
9. NEW Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $1.66 million, $2,059 PTA, $3.03 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.34 million, $960 PTA, $34.4 million cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.23 million, $650 PTA, $84.5 million cume
12. NEW Witless Protection (Lionsgate) — $1 million, $750, $1.66 million cume
13. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $810,000, $1,321 PTA, $61.4 million cume
14. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $790,000, $578, $72.7 million cume
15. NEW Charlie Bartlett (MGM) — $780,000, $695 PTA, $1.41 million cume
* U2 3D (National Geographic) — $400,000, $583- $4.59 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $365,000, $2,239 PTA, $2.57 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $58,000, $7,250 PTA, $354,000 cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (The Weinstein Company/MGM) — $47,000, $979 PTA, $408,000 cume
* NEW The Signal (Magnolia) — $45,000, $281 PTA, $79,000 cume
* NEW The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $24,000, $4,000 PTA, $38,000
* NEW Cover (Independent) — $14,000, $1,000 PTA, $24,000 cume
* NEW The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) — $8,600, $4,300 PTA, $14,400 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Vantage Point (Sony) — $23.81 million, $7,562 PTA, $23.8 million cume
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $13.32 million, $3,463 PTA, $44.2 million cume
3. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $12.68 million, $3,700 PTA, $56.2 million cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $10.24 million, $4,130 PTA, $41.8 million cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $6.99 million, $2,276 PTA, $53.1 million cume
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $5.5 million, $2,480 PTA, $22.1 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.56 million, $2,645 PTA, $130.8 million cume
8. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $4.42 million, $2,363 PTA, $35.9 million cume
9. NEW Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $4.08 million, $5,058 PTA, $4.08 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.03 million, $2,162 PTA, $35.4 million cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $2.69 million, $1,419 PTA, $85.2 million cume
12. NEW Witless Protection (Lionsgate) — $2.29 million, $1,718 PTA, $2.29M  cume
13. NEW Charlie Bartlett (MGM) — $1.88 million, $1,678 PTA, $1.88 million cume
14. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $1.81 million, $1,325 PTA, $73.2 million cume
15. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $1.73 million, $2,836 PTA, $62 million cume
* U2 3D (National Geographic) — $1.01 million, $1,485 PTA, $4.89 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $830,000, $5,092 PTA, $2.8 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $126,000, $15,750 PTA, $397,000 cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (The Weinstein Company/MGM) — $110,000, $2,292 PTA, $440,000 cume
* NEW The Signal (Magnolia) — $108,000, $675 PTA, $108,000 cume
* NEW The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $55,000, $9,167 PTA, $55,000 cume
* NEW Cover (Independent) — $33, 000, $2,357 PTA, $33,000 cume
* NEW The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) — $20,000, $10,000 PTA, $20,000 cume


FRIDAY NIGHT: Critics have been generally unkind to Vantage Point, the Pete Travis-directed film, with many describing it as a ripoff of Akira Kurosawa's Rashomon, but that hasn't kept moviegoers away. With an all-star cast, including Oscar winners William Hurt and Forest Whitaker, Matthew Fox from TV's Lost, and former Academy Award nominees Dennis Quaid and Sigourney Weaver, this assassination thriller has exceeded industry expectations with a powerful $7.5 million opening day, and it is headed for an estimated $22.4 million opening weekend.

Vantage Point has overcome soft industry tracking (I predicted just $16 million in my Weekend Tracking column) and taken advantage of a weekend with no serious competition to absolutely swamp the field. In fact, the second-place movie during Oscar weekend will likely be holdover The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) with an estimated $13 million. That's almost a full $10 million behind the weekend's No. 1 movie.

20th Century Fox's Jumper added $3.9 million on Friday compared to Spiderwick's $3.1 million, but the Doug Liman sci-fi action flick will finish third for the three-day with $12.2 million or so. That's off 55 percent from opening weekend, but the Hayden Christensen vehicle will wrap up the weekend with $55.7 million overall. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) danced to another $2.9 million on Friday, and it will finish the weekend at No. 4 with a likely $8.2 million. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) delivered another $2.1 million to kick off the frame, and it will stay in the Top 5 with a probable $6.4 million and a new cume of $52.5 million by Monday morning.

Beyond Vantage Point, the most successful new wide release is Be Kind Rewind (New Line), the latest cinematic adventure from Academy Award winner Michel Gondry. The Jack Black-Mos Def surrealist comedy scored a nifty $1,485 Friday PTA for a $1.2 million opening day. I'm projecting $3.65 million for the three-day or $4,517 per location.

As expected, Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) are both unmitigated disasters. Witless managed $700,000 on Friday, and it'll finish the weekend with a meager $2 million. The well reviewed Charlie deserves better, but could only muster $600,000 on opening day, and it'll crawl to just $1.8 million for the frame.

U2 3D (National Geographic) has expanded to 686 locations with some success. The 3D concert film racked up $800,000 in Friday ticket sales, and this spectacular moviegoing experience will finish the weekend in the Top 10 with an estimated $3.36 million. Originally, I felt a $10,000-$12,000 PTA was possible, but, as it turns out, U2 3D is sharing many of those screens with Disney's Hannah Montana. That will keep the Per Theatre in the $4,000-$5,000 range.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Vantage Point (Sony) — $7.5 million, $2,382 PTA, $7.5 million cume
2. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $3.9 million, $1,137 PTA, $47.4 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $3.1 million, $806 PTA, $34 million cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $2.9 million, $1,169 PTA, $34.5 million cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $2.1 million, $683 PTA, $48.2 million cume
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $1.7 million, $766 PTA, $18.2 million cume
7. NEW Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $1.2 million, $1,485 PTA, $1.2 million cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.1 million, $637 PTA, $127.3 million cume
9. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $1 million, $534 PTA, $32.5 million cume
10. U2 3D (National Geographic) — $800,000, $1,166, $4.6 million cume
11. NEW Witless Protection (Lionsgate) — $700,000, $525, $700,000 cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $675,000, $481 PTA, $33.1 million cume
13. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $650,000, $342 PTA, $83.2 million cume
14. NEW Charlie Bartlett (MGM) — $600,000, $535 PTA, $600,000 cume
15. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $490,000, $358, $71.9 million cume
* Hannah Montana (Disney) — $300,000, $489 PTA, $60.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $175,000, $1,075 PTA, $2.1 million cume
* NEW The Signal (Magnolia) — $33,600, $210 PTA, $33,600 cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (The Weinstein Company/MGM) — $31,000, $646 PTA, $360,000 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $25,000, $3,125 PTA,  $296,000 cume
* NEW The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $14,000, $2,333 PTA, $14,000
* NEW Cover (Independent) — $9,800, $700 PTA, $9,800 cume
* NEW The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) — $5,800, $2,900 PTA, $5,800 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Vantage Point (Sony) — $22.4 million, $7,113 PTA, $22.4 million cume
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $13 million, $3,379 PTA, $43.9 million cume
3. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $12.2 million, $3,557 PTA, $55.7 million cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $8.2 million, $3,306 PTA, $39.8 million cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $6.4 million, $2,081 PTA, $52.5 million cume
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $5 million, $2,252 PTA, $21.5 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.07 million, $2,357 PTA, $130.3 million cume
8. NEW Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $3.65 million, $4,517 PTA, $3.65 million cume
9. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $3.6 million, $1,922 PTA, $35.1 million cume
10. U2 3D (National Geographic) — $3.36 million, $4,898, $7.2 million cume
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $2.63 million, $1,878 PTA, $35 million cume
12. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $2.37 million, $1,247 PTA, $84.9 million cume
13. NEW Witless Protection (Lionsgate) — $2 million, $1,500 PTA, $2 million cume
14. NEW Charlie Bartlett (MGM) — $1.8 million, $1,604 PTA, $1.8 million cume
15. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $1.71 million, $1,255 PTA, $73.1 million cume
* Hannah Montana (Disney) — $1.26 million, $2,055 PTA, $61.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $665,000, $4,080 PTA, $2.6 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $112,000, $14,000 PTA,  $383,000 cume
* NEW The Signal (Magnolia) — $100,000, $625 PTA, $100,000
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (The Weinstein Company/MGM) — $95,000, $1,979 PTA, $425,000 cume
* NEW The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $54,600, $9,100 PTA, $54,600 cume
* NEW Cover (Independent) — $29,000, $2,071 PTA, $29,000 cume
* NEW The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) — $21,000, $10,500 PTA, $21,000 cume

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Posted at 12:42 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Bob Roberts

Only a stupid person would compare "Vantage Point" to "Rashomon." "Rashomon" is about multiple characters who interpret the same event differently. "Vantage Point" is about multiple character who each have different pieces of the same puzzle. In "Rashomon," Kurosawa's point is that complex events may not have an overriding truth. In "Vantage Point," the filmmakers are merely using information split among several character to assemble and present an overriding truth. One movie is a landmark philosophical statement, and the other is a fun thriller about a complex plot to assassinate the president.

Posted by: Bob Roberts | February 23, 2008 at 06:53 AM

JackO

Wow. Could you imagine the Duchess of Langeais winning the PTA crown this week!?

Posted by: JackO | February 23, 2008 at 07:49 AM

matt

Hmm that's odd. Boxofficemojo is tracking U2 3D at roughly 300k for Friday. That's a decent sized discrepancy.

Posted by: matt | February 23, 2008 at 02:15 PM

apollokthx

Are you going to be adding Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Street Kings to the Feb.-April leagues? I'd like to have FSM on my roster.

Posted by: apollokthx | February 24, 2008 at 10:09 AM

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