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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

February 16, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Jumper' Headed to $38.6M 5-day; 'The Streets' Steps Up to $28M; 'Spiderwick' Surges on Saturday and Headed for $26M or More!

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: Doug Liman's Jumper (Fox) received a nice 27 percent Saturday surge, adding just over $11 million for a new three-day cume of $26.37 million. With a projected $8 million or so on Sunday and another $4.19 million on President's Day, the tepidly-reviewed Hayden Christensen sci-fi action movie will finish with a five-day of $38.63 million — more than enough to win the competitive frame.

Disney's Step Up 2 the Streets grabbed another $7.43 million on Saturday, and it will finish the Valentine's Day-thru-President's Day five-day frame with just over $28 million and a five-day PTA of $11,372 per location. The news was even better for Paramount's The Spiderwick Chronicles, which saw a monstrous Saturday surge of 81 percent. The favorably reviewed and expensive family fantasy film actually finished No. 2 for the day, with an estimated $7.96 million. I've raised my five-day estimate to $26.26 million, No. 3 for the long weekend.

The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson romantic comedy Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) collected another $5.66 million on Saturday, and it will bank $19.29 million by Tuesday morning for a new cume of $44.7 million. The new rom-com Definitely, Maybe (Universal) fell slightly behind holdover Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) on Saturday, but the Ryan Reynolds vehicle should stay in the Top 5 for the five-day with a likely $14.77 million, compared to $13 million for Welcome Home.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $11.04 million, $3,223 PTA, $26.37 million cume
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $7.96 million, $2,070 PTA, $14.67 million cume
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $7.43 million, $3,010 PTA, $20.33 million cume
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $5.66 million, $1,812 PTA, $38.4 million cume
5. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $4.17 million, $1,748 PTA, $26.6 million cume
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $4.11 million, $1,865 PTA, $10.22 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2 million, $1,077 PTA, $122.6 million cume
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.85 million, $802 PTA, $79.8 million cume
9. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $1.406 million, $2,053 PTA, $57.2 million cume
10. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $1.404 million, $725 PTA, $69 million cume
11. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $1.339 million, $629 PTA, $25.4 million cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.332 million, $945 PTA, $29.9 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $435,000, $3,884 PTA, $1.28 million cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) — $90,000, $2,143 PTA, $170,000 cume
* Tout est parfait [Everything is Fine] (Alliance Films) — $55,000, $2,115 PTA, $85,000
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $30,000, $3,750 PTA, $140,000 cume
* The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (City Lights) — $27,000, $1,500 PTA, $39,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 5-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $38.63 million, $11,270 PTA, $38.63 million cume
2. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $28.08 million, $11,372 PTA, $28.08 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $26.26 million, $6,828 PTA, $26.26 million cume
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $19.29 million, $6,176 PTA, $44.7 million cume
5. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $14.77 million, $6,704 PTA, $14.77 million cume
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $13.02 million, $5,457 PTA, $31.3 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $6.2 million, $3,329 PTA, $124.8 million cume
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $5.57 million, $2,416 PTA, $81.7 million cume
9. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $4.66 million, $6,804 PTA, $59.2 million cume
10. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $4.56 million, $2,143 PTA, $26.9 million cume
11. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $4.47 million, $2,313 PTA, $70.6 million cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.94 million, $2,796 PTA, $31.5 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $1.22 million, $10,916 PTA, $1.78 million cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) — $270,000, $6,429 PTA, $270,000 cume
* Tout est parfait [Everything is Fine] (Alliance Films) — $150,000, $5,769 PTA, $150,000 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $92,000, $11,500 PTA, $176,000 cume
* The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (City Lights) — $70,000, $3,889 PTA, $70,000 cume


FRIDAY NIGHT: Jumper has leapt to an excellent $8.21 million on Friday, and it should bound to a solid $34.47 million for the Valentine's-Day-through-President's-Day five-day box office frame. After finishing in a virtual dead heat with Disney's Step Up 2 the Streets on Thursday, Doug Liman's sci-fi adventure pic overwhelmed the competition on Friday. Meanwhile, Step Up 2 received a slight Thursday-to-Friday bump, dancing to a $6.25 million second day. The low-budget sequel to the 2006 surprise hit should reach $28.45 million for the five-day for an anticipated weekend-best PTA of $11,518 per location.

The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), the well-reviewed family fantasy movie showing at over 3,800 locations, has somewhat recovered from a disappointing Thursday, collecting an estimated $4.75 million on Friday. Directed by Mark Waters (Freaky Friday, Mean Girls), and checking in with a reported budget of more than $100 million, Spiderwick will have banked $25.35 million or so by Monday night. That's well short of the $28.53 million that 2007's Bridge to Terabithia (Disney) delivered in four days last President's Day weekend.

Romantic comedy holdover Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) outpaced Universal's Definitely, Maybe in the date movie chase on Friday $3.9 million to $2.9 million. The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson flick should wind up the weekend with an estimated $18.75 million for a new cume of $45.3 million. Definitely, Maybe, starring Ryan Reynolds, will manage only a fifth-place finish with a disappointing $14.4 million over the five-day period.

In Bruges (Focus) is proving to be a potent specialty film, expanding to 112 locations while maintaining a $2,377 PTA Friday. The Colin Farrell/Ralph Fiennes black comedy is headed for a $1.24 million five-day and a likely $11,000-plus PTA.

Among other specialty releases, George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein/MGM) had a so-so opening with $1,840 per on 42 screens. The genre film will scare up about $245,000 in its first four days of release.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $8.21 million, $2,396 PTA, $14.84 million cume
2. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $6.25 million, $2,530 PTA, $12.85 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $4.75 million, $1,235 PTA, $7.05 million cume
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $3.9 million, $1,248 PTA, $32.8 million cume
5. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $2.9 million, $1,316 PTA, $6.01 million cume
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $2.17 million, $910 PTA, $22.4 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.31 million, $607 PTA, $120.5 million cume
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.02 million, $444 PTA, $78 million cume
9. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $850,000, $399 PTA, $23.9 million cume
10. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $840,000, $434 PTA, $67.6 million cume
11. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour(Disney) — $775,000, $1,131 PTA, $55.9 million cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $700,000, $496 PTA, $28.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $270,000, $2,377 PTA, $882,000 cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) — $78,000, $1,840 PTA, $78,000 cume
* Tout est parfait [Everything is Fine] (Alliance Films) — $30,000, $1,168 PTA, $30,000
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $17,000, $2,122 PTA, $110,000 cume
* The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (City Lights) — $12,000, $660 PTA, $12,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 5-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $34.47 million, $10,057 PTA, $34.47 million cume
2. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $28.45 million, $11,518 PTA, $28.45 million cume
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $25.35 million, $6,590 PTA, $25.35 million cume
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $18.75 million, $6,000 PTA, $45.3 million cume
5. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $14.4 million, $6,534 PTA, $14.4 million cume
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $11.29 million, $4,733 PTA, $29.5 million cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $5.56 million, $2,984 PTA, $124.2 million cume
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $4.99 million, $2,163 PTA, $81.1 million cume
9. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $4.58 million, $6,688 PTA, $59.1 million cume
10. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $4.19 million, $2,165 PTA, $70.3 million cume
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.55 million, $2,524 PTA, $31.1 million cume
12. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $3.51 million, $1,653 PTA, $25.9 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $1.24 million, $11,146 PTA, $1.85 million cume
* George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) — $245,000, $5,833 PTA, $245,000 cume
* Tout est parfait [Everything is Fine] (Alliance Films) — $150,000, $5,769 PTA, $150,000 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $85,000, $10,625 PTA, $178,000 cume
* The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (City Lights) — $60,000, $3,333 PTA, $60,000 cume

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Comments

Jeff

Mase I think you may be confusing Mr. Kotter and Roscoe Jenkins in your estimates. It is uderstandable though. In fact Ironically I probably wouldn't have realized it if it was for the song "Welcome Back" by the rapper Mase. Sampling the welcome back Kotter theme.

Posted by: Jeff | February 16, 2008 at 11:07 AM

ARS

WAIT FOR EARLY SUNDAY ESTIMATES?

Posted by: ARS | February 18, 2008 at 01:32 AM

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