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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

February 08, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Fool's Gold' Finds Box-Office Treasure w/$22.4M 3-day; 'Roscoe Jenkins' Surges to $16.68M; 'In Bruges' and 'Band's Visit' Pack PTA Punch; Vince Vaughn and Paris Hilton Bomb (Separately, Not as a Couple)!

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: The 3-day estimate for Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) I released Friday night (see below) was dead-on, but I underestimated the Saturday surge for Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal). The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson romantic comedy received a 23 percent Saturday bump for an estimated second-day take of $9.4 million. Gold will finish the weekend with $22.42 million, making it the all-time third-best McConaughey opening and the all-time second-best Hudson opening.

The Martin Lawrence comedy vehicle Roscoe Jenkins got a terrific 55 percent Saturday bump for a better-than-expected $7.67 million Saturday. I'm revising my Friday three-day estimate of $14.1 million to a stronger $16.68 million opening weekend, but it's still only the all-time eighth-best opening in Lawrence's career.

Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) appears to be running out of gas. The 3D concert movie was up 57 percent on Saturday, but that translates to a smaller-than-expected $4.47 million Saturday. Hannah will finish the weekend at No. 3, with an estimated $10.36 million and a new 10-day cume of $53.2 million.

The Jessica Alba horror pic The Eye (Lionsgate) is holding up surprisingly well, grabbing $2.93 million on Saturday. It's headed for a $6.61 million second weekend, good for fourth place. Meanwhile Juno (Fox Searchlight) keeps drawing crowds with a fifth-place finish. The Oscar-nominated indie sensation collected another $2.69 million on Saturday, and it has a $5.91 million three-day target. By Monday morning, Juno will likely be just shy of $118 million domestic.

Both In Bruges (Focus) and The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) are legitimate arthouse hits. The Colin Farrell comedy, on 28 screens, will finish the weekend with about $477,000 for a three-day PTA of just over $17,000. The Band's Visit, a winner of nine Israeli Film Academy Awards debuting on seven screens, generated a strong $78,000 in three days for an $11,000-plus weekend PTA.

The two big weekend losers are Vince Vaughn and Paris Hilton. Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) rolled out at 962 locations and looks to have managed only $475,000 overall, or $494 per screen for the weekend. The weekend's worst punchline, however, is reserved for Paris Hilton's The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing). The final count will show that the critically reviled comedy featuring the seemingly talentless Hilton has sold a meager $25,500 in tickets at 111 locations over the weekend. That's only $230 per screen for theaters that were convinced to book this disaster. That means that, based on an $8 average ticket price, 29 paying customers showed up at each location over the 3-day. In a country that seems fascinated with Paris Hilton, only 3,219 unlucky Americans will have been suckered into seeing Hottie by Monday morning.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $9.4 million, $3,011 PTA, $17.05 million cume
2. Welcome Home  Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $7.67 million, $3,217 PTA, $12.62 million cume
3. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $4.47 million, $6,513 PTA, $50.2 million cume
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $2.93 million, $1,190 PTA, $19.9 million cume
5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $2.69 million, $1,162 PTA, $116.2 million cume
6. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $2.58 million, $910 PTA, $63.9 million cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $2.57 million, $936 PTA, $73.7 million cume
8. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $2.02 million, $746 PTA, $35.6 million cume
9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $1.98 million, $813 PTA, $32.9 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.87 million, $1,158 PTA, $25.6 million cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) — $1.67 million, $782 PTA, $23.5 million cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $1.3 million, $645 PTA, $75.3 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus Features) — $208,000, $7,429 PTA, $336,000 cume
* Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) — $205,000, $213 PTA, $360,000 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $36,000, $5,143 PTA, $52,000 cume
* The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) — $10,440, $94 PTA, $19,440 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $22.42 million, $7,175 PTA, $22.42 million cume
2. Welcome Home  Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $16.68 million, $6,997 PTA, $16.68 million cume
3. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $10.36 million, $15,090 PTA, $53.2 million cume
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $6.61 million, $2,677 PTA, $21.5 million cume
5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $5.91 million, $2,548 PTA, $117.8 million cume
6. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $5.83 million, $2,054 PTA, $65.5 million cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $5.48 million, $1,993 PTA, $75.2 million cume
8. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $4.44 million, $1,636 PTA, $36.8 million cume
9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $4.1939  million, $1,715 PTA, $33 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $4.1932 million, $2,588 PTA, $26.9 million cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) — $3.67 million, $1,715 PTA, $24.5 million cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $2.81 million, $1,385 PTA, $76 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus Features) — $477,000, $17,036 PTA, $477,000
* Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) — $475,000, $494 PTA, $475,000 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $78,000, $11,143 PTA, $78,000 cume
* The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) — $25,500, $230 PTA, $25,500 cume

FRIDAY NIGHT: Five years ago, Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson teamed up for the romantic comedy How to Lose A Guy in 10 Days and notched a $7.96 million Friday and a $23.7 million opening weekend. Their new movie together, Fool's Gold (Warner Bros), is enjoying virtually the same success. The tepidly-reviewed treasure hunting comedy and date flick dug up an estimated $7.81 million on opening day, and will apparently sail to a $22.65 million tally by Monday morning. For McConaughey, Fool’s Gold will likely mark his all-time third-best opening weekend:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY OPENINGS
1. Failure to Launch — $24.1 million
2. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days — $23.7 million
3. Fool's Gold — $22.65 million (Estimated)
4. Contact — $20.5 million
5. U-571 — $19.5 million

Meanwhile, it's the all-time second-best opening of Hudson's career:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 KATE HUDSON OPENINGS
1. How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days — $23.7 million
2. Fool's Gold — $22.65 million (Estimated)
3. You, Me and Dupree — $21.5 million
4. The Skeleton Key — $16 million
5. Raising Helen — $10.9 million

As I reported in my Weekend Tracking column published Thursday, the new Martin Lawrence movie Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) never seemed to connect with moviegoers in industry tracking, but it will finish the weekend dramatically below even lowered Hollywood expectations. On the heels of two of his most successful openings, Big Momma's House 2 and Wild Hogs, hopes were originally high for Roscoe Jenkins, but the comedy managed only $4.65 million on its opening day, and it will manage only an anticipated $14.1 million for the weekend. That would make it only all-time tenth-best Lawrence opening.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 MARTIN LAWRENCE OPENINGS
1. Bad Boys II — $46.5 million
2. Wild Hogs — $39.6 million
3. Big Momma's House 2 — $27.7 million
4. Big Momma's House — $25.6 million
5. Open Season — $23.6 million
6. Life — $20.4 million
7. Blue Streak — $19.2 million
8. Bad Boys — $15.5 million
9. National Security — $14.3 million
10. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins — $14.1 million (Estimated)

The 3D sensation Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney), originally promoted as a one-week event, tailed off dramatically on its second Friday, but still added an estimated $2.7 million. For the weekend, the concert film, at only 687 locations, should capture another $11 million in predominantly 'tween business for a Per Theatre Average of just over $16,000. Hannah should wrap the weekend with a new cume of just under $54 million.

The Katherine Heigl romantic comedy 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) continues to hold strongly with another $1.9 million on Friday and a likely $6.5 million weekend. That makes it No. 5 for the day, but No. 4 for the weekend. The Eye (Lionsgate) starring Jessica Alba generated $2 million on its second Friday (No. 4), and it's headed for a fifth-place weekend finish with $6 million or so.

Among other new releases, In Bruges (Focus) starring Colin Farrell is faring best. On 28 screens, it delivered a $4,387 Per Theatre Average on its opening day, and the comedy should finish the weekend with about $437,000 for a PTA of $15,600.

Both Vince Vaughn and Paris Hilton have added mega-flops to their film resumes. Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Sho: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland comedy concert film from Picturehouse opened at 962 locations, and averaged only $150 in tickets sold per location on Friday. Based on an $8 ticket price, that's only 19 tickets at each theater where the movie is showing. Wild West will limp to an estimated weekend of $433,000 or $450 per location.

Vaughn's misguided vanity project, however, looks like a blockbuster compared to Paris Hilton's The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing). Debuting on 111 screens, it could only muster $76 per location on its opening day. That means that, on average, 10 people purchased a ticket to see this comic disaster at each theater with the misfortune of having booked it. Hottie will sell only an anticipated $23,000 during the 3-day weekend for a $207 Per Theatre Average. That's about 26 ticket buyers per location for Friday-Sunday.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $7.81 million, $2,500 PTA, $7.81 million cume
2. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $4.65 million, $1,900 PTA, $4.65 million cume
3. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $2.7 million, $3,930 PTA, $45.5 million cume
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $2 million, $810 PTA, $16.9 million cume
5. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $1.9 million, $669 PTA, $61.5 million cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.6 million, $689 PTA, $113.5 million cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $1.47 million, $536 PTA  $71,193,013
8. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $1.17 million, $480 PTA, $31 million cume
9. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $1.15 million, $423 PTA, $33.6 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $1.05 million, $648 PTA, $23.7 million cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) — $975,000, $455 PTA, $21.82 million cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $800,000, $394 PTA, $74 million cume
* Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) — $144,300, $150 PTA, $144,300 cume
* In Bruges (Focus Features) — $122,836, $4,387 PTA, $122,836 cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $12,418, $1,774 PTA, $12,418 cume
* The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) — $8,436, $76 PTA, $8,436 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $22.65 million, $7,248 PTA, $22.65 million cume
2. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $14.1 million, $5,912 PTA, $14.1 million cume
3. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $11 million, $16,012 PTA, $53.8 million cume
4. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $6.5 million, $2,288 PTA, $66.1 million cume
5. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $6 million, $2,429 PTA, $20.8 million cume
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $5.28 million, $2,275 PTA, $117.1 million cume
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $4.94 million, $1,795 PTA, $74.6 million cume
8. Rambo (Lionsgate) — $3.73 million, $1,376 PTA, $36.1 million cume
9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $3.64 million, $1,489 PTA, $33.4 million cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.51 million, $2,171 PTA, $26.2 million cume
11. Untraceable (Sony) — $3.07 million, $1,433 PTA, $23.9 million cume
12. Cloverfield (Paramount) — $2.48 million, $1,222 PTA, $75.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus Features) — $437,000, $15,607 PTA, $437,000
* Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) — $433,000, $450 PTA, $433,000 cume * The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $47,000, $6,714 PTA, $47,000 cume
* The Hottie & the Nottie (Regent Releasing) — $23,000, $207 PTA, $23,000 cume

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Posted at 11:40 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

JackO

Even down 65%, Hannah wins the estimated PTA battle with ease! Wowzers.

Posted by: JackO | February 09, 2008 at 12:04 PM

Matthew Martin

I'm that not a single theatre in this entire state (Missouri) booked Paris Hilton's film.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | February 09, 2008 at 05:30 PM

Matthew Martin

That should say "I'm glad".

Posted by: Matthew Martin | February 09, 2008 at 05:33 PM

Tye Copeland

That's because we, Missourians, are smart.

Posted by: Tye Copeland | February 09, 2008 at 07:25 PM

Bubble Burster

Hate to burst your bubble:
http://www.fandango.com/wehrenbergronnies20cine_aagqt/theaterpage

Posted by: Bubble Burster | February 09, 2008 at 08:48 PM

Tye Copeland

You didn't burst anyones bubble... Paris Hilton's film isn't there.

Posted by: Tye Copeland | February 09, 2008 at 10:07 PM

dranscht

Looks like I might get 9 PTA points in some of my leagues... heck yes. Possibly double digits if Fool's Gold snags a few.

Posted by: dranscht | February 09, 2008 at 10:31 PM

The Dude

How's that for a slice of fried gold? I knew Roscoe would rock the box office. With Martin's built in fanbase & not to mention it's black history month. And for only 1/4 of the cost of Fools Gold, looks like a pretty damn good pick !

Posted by: The Dude | February 11, 2008 at 07:52 AM

nkw

"That means that, based on an $8 average ticket price, 29 paying customers showed up at each location over the 3-day."
Or, put another way, if each theater had 5 screenings/day, that's less than 2 people per screening. If a movie is screened, and no one buys a ticket, does it makes a sound?

Posted by: nkw | February 12, 2008 at 09:14 AM

Fan Site

About Paris Hilton Film Archive - Paris Hilton Filmography
http://philton.blogcu.com/19204211/

Posted by: Fan Site | July 20, 2008 at 05:21 PM

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