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February 23, 2008

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: 'No Country' for Best Picture; Daniel Day-Lewis to Drink Oscar's Milkshake; Christie Over Cotillard; Oscar Will Be Bardem's 'Friendo'; Upsets for Swinton and Schnabel!

by Steve Mason

BEST PICTURE
Mase's Pick: No Country For Old Men
Winner: No Country For Old Men
Overall Batting Average: 1.000

ANALYSIS : Although I can create scenarios in my imagination where No Country For Old Men fails here, they seem farfetched. The picture has strength in all of the Academy's branches winning guild awards from the actors, the directors and the writers, and it has been lauded by critics, almost unanimously. As Ken Turan has pointed out in the Los Angeles Times, giving the Best Picture Oscar to George Clooney would be like Hollywood giving the award to itself as it is the only film to come from the heart of the studio system, but this is a longshot. Older Academy members may be drawn to vote for the old-fashioned Atonement and younger voters may support Juno, but this is the year that the Coen Brothers finally receive their due.

BEST ACTOR
Mase's Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Overall Batting Average: 1.000

ANALYSIS: I had Jeff Garlin, the Executive Producer and co-star of Curb Your Enthusiasm on my 710 ESPN radio show yesterday, and I finally found someone "legit" to agree with me that Daniel Day-Lewis was ridiculously over the top in Blood. I love Paul Thomas Anderson, but I don't "get" his Upton Sinclair adaptation the way a lot of people in this town seem to. I disagree with George Clooney. He is not Hillary in this Best Actor race. Johnny Depp is. The same man who gave the world Jack Sparrow and Edward Scissorhands has delivered a brooding yet heartfelt film version of Sweeney Todd.  He's got a remote chance, but my guess is that Johnny will remain Oscar-less.

BEST ACTRESS
Mase's Pick: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Winner: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Overall Batting Average: .667

ANALYSIS: Her inappropriate joke about forgetfulness at the SAG Awards aside, Christie is the betting favorite here, and she probably gives the most memorable performance. Older Academy voters still have the vision of her luminescent presence in Doctor Zhivago in their heads, and Away From Her provides the perfect bookend to a much admired career. Marion Cotillard is terrific in La Vie en Rose, but she doesn't sing (unlike previous winners Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line and Sissy Spacek in The Coal Miner's Daughter), and that might have sealed the deal for her. It will be one or the other, but I'm putting my money on Christie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mase's Pick: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Winner: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Overall Batting Average: .750

ANALYSIS: Almost as sure a winner as Day-Lewis in the lead character. “Call it….friendo” is a line that will be repeated years from now. and not in the same satirical way that I’m already hearing “I drink your milkshake.” He is the black heart of No Country, and it is his unshakeable yet twisted moral code that provides the backbone of this Cormac McCarthy adaptation. In other years, Hal Holbrook would have been a sure-thing. His scenes with Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild are heartbreaking, and this is the culmination of a long, successful, yet Oscar-free career. Instead, the scariest page boy haircut in history will be recognized.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mase's Pick: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Winner: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Overall Batting Average: .800

ANALYSIS: This is the most wide-open major race of the night. Cate Blanchett was the early favorite for her turn as Dylan in I'm Not There, then the momentum seemed to swing toward Amy Ryan from Gone Baby Gone. Screen legend Ruby Dee jumped into the race with her win at the SAG Awards, and her final scene with Denzel Washington in American Gangster is a gem. I'm taking a shot with Tilda. She is not a star, but delivers consistently interesting work. Her performance bookends Michael Clayton in a unique way: putting herself together at the start and being dismantled by Clooney's character in the denouement. Still, everyone except Saoirse Ronin from Atonement is a potential winner.

BEST DIRECTOR
Mase's Pick: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Winner: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Overall Batting Average: .667

ANALYSIS: I know, I know, this flies in the face of conventional wisdom. It's the Coen Brothers's year, right? The answer is yes, but they are nominated for Best Picture (along with Scott Rudin), Best Adapted Screenplay and even Best Editing (under the nom de plume of Roderick Jaynes), so they will go home with at least one Oscar, and they'll get the biggest one of the night. Schanbel is a true auteur. He took a book thought to be "unfilmable" and made it soar. It used to be that the Academy would recognize one film with both Best Picture and Best Director, but they have "spread the wealth" in three of the past seven years. In 2000, Gladiator won the big prize, but Best Director went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. Then, Roman Polanski for The Pianist won over Rob Marshall for Chicago in 2002 and  Brokeback Mountain's Ang Lee received the Oscar in 2005 over Paul Haggis for Best Picture winner Crash. I say that a Schnabel and No Country split continues the trend Sunday night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mase's Pick: Diablo Cody, Juno 
Winner: Diablo Cody, Juno 
Overall Batting Average: .714
 ANALYSIS: A fine effort, although a bit too smug for my taste. I would vote for Tony Gilroy's sturdy, character-driven legal drama Michael Clayton, and if there's an upset, it'll be his night.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Mase's Pick: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men 
Winner: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Overall Batting Average: .750

 ANALYSIS: I'm picking the Coens narrowly over Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. My thinking is that Diving Bell is Schnabel's movie.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mase's Pick: Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men 
Winner: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
Overall Batting Average: .667

ANALYSIS: His double nomination (also recognized for The Assassination of Jesse James) won't hurt him here. My guess is that he'll edge Janusz Kaminski for Diving Bell and Robert Elswit for There Will Be Blood.

BEST EDITING
Mase's Pick: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum 
Winner
: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum 
Overall Batting Average: .700

ANALYSIS: Winner of the cinematographers guild award and a chance to recognize a popular big budget blockbuster.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Ratatouille 
Mase's Pick: Ratatouille 
Winner
: Ratatouille
Overall Batting Average: .727
 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE  
Mase's Pick: No End in Sight
Winner: Taxi to the Dark Side
 
Overall Batting Average: .667

 
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 
Mase's Pick: The Counterfeiters
Winner
: The Counterfeiters 
Overall Batting Average: .692


BEST ART DIRECTION 
Mase's Pick: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Sweeney Todd
Winner
: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Sweeney Todd
Overall Batting Average: .714


BEST COSTUMES 
Mase's Pick: Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd 
Winner
: Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Overall Batting Average: .667


BEST MAKEUP 
Mase's Pick: La Vie En Rose
Winner
: La Vie En Rose
Overall Batting Average: .688


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 
Mase's Pick: Dario Marionelli, Atonement
Winner
: Dario Marionelli, Atonement 
Overall Batting Average: .705


BEST ORIGINAL SONG 
Mase's Pick: "Falling Slowly," Once
Winner
: "Falling Slowly," Once
Overall Batting Average: .722


BEST SOUND EDITING 
Mase's Pick: Transformers
Winner:
The Bourne Ultimatum
Overall Batting Average: .684


BEST SOUND MIXING 
Mase's Pick: Transformers
Winner
: The Bourne Ultimatum
Overall Batting Average: .650


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 
Mase's Pick: Transformers
Winner
: The Golden Compass
Overall Batting Average: .619


BEST ANIMATED SHORT 
Mase's Pick: I Met the Walrus
Winner
: Peter and the Wolf
Overall Batting Average: .591


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Mase's Pick
: Freeheld
Winner
: Freeheld
Overall Batting Average: .609


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Mase's Pick
: Tanghi Argentini
Winner
: Le Mozart des pickpockets
Overall Batting Average: .583

TOTAL
Predictions Correct: 14 out of 24
Final Batting Average: .583

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Posted at 02:11 PM in Advice and Analysis, Awards, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

aadams

I hate Tilda Swinton. She looks like what Carrot Top would look like without the steroids and HGH.

Posted by: aadams | February 26, 2008 at 01:26 PM

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