WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Vantage Point' Looks at a Disappointing $14M-$17M; 'U2-3D' Could Rock Top 5; Gondry's 'Be Kind Rewind' Could Ring Up $4M-$6M; 'Witless Protection' and 'Charlie Bartlett' to Top Out Under $3M!
by Steve Mason
An odd mix of films arrive in theaters for Oscar weekend. The big title is clearly Vantage Point (Sony), opening on 3,000-plus screens. Also waiting in the wings are Michel Gondry's Be Kind Rewind (New Line), starring Jack Black and Mos Def, which will bow at 800 or so locations; alleged comedy Witless Protection (Lionsgate), starring redneck icon Larry the Cable Guy, on about 1,300 screens; and MGM's long-delayed Charlie Bartlett, on 1,100-plus. All that, and National Geographic will expand the spectacular U2 3D to 678 3D-equipped houses.
Despite its A-list cast, including Dennis Quaid, Oscar winners Forest Whitaker and William Hurt, Matthew Fox from TV's Lost and Sigourney Weaver, Vantage Point hasn't really popped in industry tracking. It's a densely-plotted assassination thriller, but terrorism figures prominently, which has been the "kiss of death" for movies like Rendition, Lions for Lambs and The Kingdom.
Peter Berg's excellent Saudi Arabia-set The Kingdom opened on Sept. 28, and it registered a disappointing $17.1M opening. The tracking for Vantage Point is very similar to the tracking for that Jamie Foxx vehicle:
UN-AIDED AWARENESS
The Kingdom, 4 percent
Vantage Point, 2 percent
TOTAL AWARE
The Kingdom, 70 percent
Vantage Point, 65 percent
DEFINITE INTEREST
The Kingdom, 42 percent
Vantage Point, 40 percent
FIRST CHOICE
Vantage Point, 16 percent
The Kingdom, 15 percent
The ray of sunshine for Sony is that Vantage Point is the First Choice of more Females Under 25 (10 percent-6 percent) and Females 25 Plus (19 percent-11 percent) than The Kingdom. Also, Universal's fall terrorism thriller opened up against box office juggernaut The Game Plan, and Vantage Point won't be facing any new release with nearly that much potential.
One other dynamic in the weekend race is Sunday's Oscar telecast. A high-end commercial film like Vantage Point
will lose early evening moviegoers in the eastern time zone and even
late matinee ticket-buyers in the west. Given all of this, I'm
projecting a soft $14 million-$17 million weekend for Sony, which would be a distinct
disappointment to all involved.
Be Kind Rewind, the new movie from Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and The Science of Sleep
director Michel Gondry, is showing some signs of life in the most
recent industry tracking. Interestingly, its strength appears to be
with Males Under 25, clearly because of Jack Black's presence, but will
that audience seek out this limited release at high end commercial and
specialty houses?
Gondry's latest adventure is showing the most Definite Interest among Under 25 Males at 47 percent (compared to just 35 percent for Vantage Point), but there are just not enough screens in this run to rack up an impressive weekend number. Be Kind Rewind should finish in the $3 million-$5 million range or about $4,000-$6,000 per location.
Witless Protection and Charlie Bartlett barely deserve mention. The Lionsgate comedy is showing only 22 percent Definite Interest and a 3 percent First Choice. That should spell no better than $2 million-$4 million for the opening three days of Witless. Meanwhile, Charlie Bartlett, starring the promising Anton Yelchin (Alpha Dog and the upcoming J.J. Abrams treatment of Star Trek), and, with early reviews leaning positive (67 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), has a very uphill climb. Given its screen count and tracking performance (Total Aware, 31 percent; Definite Interest, 23 percent; First Choice, 2 percent), Charlie will likely manage something in that same $2 million-$4 million range.
National Geographic is the distributor handling U2 3D, the new concert film from the legendary Bono-led band. The rookie distributor is managing to grab virtually all of the nation's Digital 3D locations (although likely short of the number that the recent Hannah Montana from Disney opened on). There is no tracking available for U2 3D, and it's difficult to tell how high the awareness is for this moviegoing experience. I suspect that $10,000-$12,000 per location is possible, a far cry from Hannah's $45,000-plus PTA on opening weekend, but still an impressive $6 million-$8 million for the weekend.
Here are my predictions for Oscar weekend, Feb. 22-24:
1. Vantage Point (Sony) — $16 million
2. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $13.3 million
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $11.5 million
4. Step Up to the Streets (Disney) — $8.5 million
5. U2-3D (National Geographic) — $7.1 million
6. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $7 million
7. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) — $5.9 million
8. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $4.4 million
9. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) — $4 million
10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.2 million
* Charlie Bartlett (MGM) — $2.4 million
* Witless Protection (Lionsgate) — $2 million
Are you going to be adding Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Street Kings to the Feb.-April leagues? I'd like to have FSM on my roster.
Posted by: apollokthx | February 21, 2008 at 05:54 AM
man am I glad I didn't pick up Strange Wilderness instead of Step Up 2. Thanks pre-teens for keeping my studios alive!
Posted by: aadams | February 22, 2008 at 02:00 PM
U2 3D is NOT grabbing "virtually all" of the nations 3D locations. They are going to be on 678, but Hannah is still going to be on 613. Looks like its barely more than HALF.
Posted by: MrEfron | February 22, 2008 at 02:06 PM
That is almost all of them, they are just going to share screenings I believe.
Posted by: geezer9687 | February 22, 2008 at 08:58 PM