In 2007, Warner Bros. opened Music and Lyrics, starring Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore, on Valentine's Day (a Wednesday) with some success. The pure chick-flick grabbed $4.15M on the holiday and followed that up with a three-day tally of $13.62 million and a six-day (Wednesday through President's Day) haul of $21.4 million. Fool's Gold, a reteaming of How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days stars Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson, is tracking much better than M&L, especially with younger moviegoers and men.

On the Sunday prior to opening, both movies had a 6 percent Un-Aided Awareness score (a good measure of buzz), but Fool's Gold has considerably stronger Total Awareness 85 percent-73 percent, and slightly more overall Definite Interest 34 percent-30 percent. Also, a tick more moviegoers call it their First Choice 13 percent-11 percent. Males aren't anxious to see the McConaughey/Hudson picture, but they are more likely to go along with girlfriends and wives, who are the target for Fool's Gold. Here are the male numbers for the two films.

Fool's Gold 
Awareness with Males Under 25: 75 percent
Awareness with Males 25 Plus: 89 percent
Definite Interest with Males Under 25: 21 percent
Definite Interest with Males 25 Plus: 30 percent
First Choice with Males Under 25: 8 percent
First Choice with Males 25 Plus: 15 percent

Music and Lyrics 
Awareness with Males Under 25: 56 percent
Awareness with Males 25 Plus: 72 percent
Definite Interest with Males Under 25: 12 percent
Definite Interest with Males 25 Plus: 14 percent
First Choice with Males Under 25: 2 percent
First Choice with Males 25 Plus: 7 percent

Wild horses could not have dragged men to see Music and Lyrics, but many guys will probably relent when their girlfriends and wives try to drag them to see Fool's Gold. My forecast is that Gold will open bigger than Music and Lyrics, but less than the $23.8 million that How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days opened to five years ago. I'm looking for a number in the $19 million-$22 million range.

Meanwhile, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins will play considerably softer. This is a milder version of Martin Lawrence, more Tyler Perry than Big Momma's House-style hijinks. Another handicap is the roughly  2,300 screen opening compared to Fool's Gold, which will debut on closer to 3,000. Using Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married as a comparable, Roscoe Jenkins holds up favorably.

Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins
Un-Aided Awareness: 2 percent
Total Aware: 62 percent
Definite Interest: 32 percent
First Choice: 7 percent

Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? 
Un-Aided Awareness: 3 percent
Total Aware: 53 percent
Definite Interest: 29 percent
First Choice: 6 percent

Still, Perry's films a built-in following, predominantly African American moviegoers, many of them evangelicals because of his lightly-disguised Christian themes. That's a base that doesn't exist for Lawrence. Some of the "slack" however, will be picked up by Males Under 25, who give Roscoe Jenkins a 9 percent First Choice score compared to the 2 percent that Why Did I Get Married? opened with.

Something has failed to click in Universal's marketing here. Coming off of the wildly successful Big Momma's House 2 ($27.7 million opening) and Wild Hogs ($39.7 million opening), the marketing honchos should have been able to get this off the ground in a big way, but they clearly haven't capitalized. I am predicting that Roscoe Jenkins will also fall short of Perry's fall release, which grabbed $21.3 million in its first three days. I say that it will not be the warmest of welcomes for Roscoe with a three-day in the $17 million-$20 million range.

The final wide release is Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland, Vaughn's comedy concert film from Picturehouse, which will open on 800 or so screens. This picture has absolutely no traction in the marketplace, with a Total Aware of only 32 percent, Definite Interest of 15 percent and a miserable 2 percent First Choice. That will result in a very meager $2 million-$3 million for its opening weekend.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEB. 8-10
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $20.3 million
2. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) — $17.7 million
3. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) — $17.1 million
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) — $5.7 million
5. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) — $5.6 million
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $4.75 million
7. Rambo (Weinstein/MGM) — $4.5 million
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $4.4 million
9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) — $4 million
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $3.75 million
* Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights — From Hollywood to the Heartland (Picturehouse) —  $2.1 million