Well, Horton Hears a Who opens this weekend, and if we don't want 2008 (or the first four months of it, at least) to go down as the most disappointing four months in cinematic history, it had better do some smokin' business. And judging by the fact that 60 percent or so of my competitors have this film on their roster, I know I'm definitely not the only one. But what do we do after that? Starting with the week of March 28 and continuing all the way through April, what can we do with our No. 3-No. 8 picks that will give us the edge? It's so tough to pick, given that April is comparatively weak month at the box office ... but then again, given how weak EVERY month has been thus far, maybe we're on a more even playing field. So, let's end our own version of March Madness in style, shall we?

Jim Sturgess is not a household name yet, but he's made excellent strides to becoming one in the last year. He played the central role of "Jude" in Across the Universe, had a notable supporting role in the surprisingly successful The Other Boleyn Girl, and later this year will be appearing in the controversial immigration film Crossing Over with Harrison Ford and Sean Penn. This month, however, he plays M.I.T. math whiz Ben Campbell in 21, a film that is based on true events. In this story, Kevin Spacey plays a professor who recruits six of his brighter students for the purpose of teaching them to count cards at blackjack.

Director Robert Luketic (Legally Blonde) has also been blessed with some pretty respectable supporting talent, including Laurence Fishburne and Kate Bosworth (Spacey's co-star from Superman Returns). The trailer, which is really quite good, looks not so much like a junior version of Ocean's Eleven, but more of a grittier, street-wise film like Smokin' Aces (minus 99 percent of the gunplay and, thankfully, Ben Affleck), with some of the youthful exuberance of, say, The Perfect Score thrown in.

I have to admit, I'm having a hard time getting my head around this one. It looks very entertaining (if predictable), and I've read that the story is incredibly well-acted, but I'm not entirely sure what the target demographic is. Given the age of the majority of its cast, it would seem to be aimed at the college-to-late-twenties group, but I just have this unfounded sense of ... something that says that this film is not going to be as popular as it should be. More mature audience will probably enjoy watching Spacey and Fishburne in something more low-budget than their recent outings, but is there enough sheer drama to pack them in either? I say no.

Fantasy Moguls predicts that 21 will pull in only three Top 5 points, which suggests that they think it will claim the No. 3 spot on its opening weekend and then fall out, which is reasonable, given that Leatherheads, Nim's Island and The Ruins are all scheduled for wide-release one week later. It also has to deal with Horton Hears a Who in its third week and Drillbit Taylor and Meet the Browns in their second weeks, along with Superhero Movie. That's a lot of mid-range films jockeying for position, folks. Four PTA? Don't see it happening. A User Rating of 6.6 may be aiming high, given that it currently sits a 5.9 with a negligible amount of votes already, and a total take of $23 million sounds about right, though it could end up $10 million in either direction. In the March Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues it is priced at $15, which I would dub an extremely risky call. I'd be far more likely to choose it in Box Office Moguls, where it is priced at a much trimmer $7.

There's no denying that spoof movies have taken a critical beating in the last couple of years… despite the fact that some of them have achieved a modicum of box office success, such as Epic Movie and January's Meet the Spartans, some have failed to impress even those with the lowest of standards, such as The Comebacks and, to an extent, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story. I have made no attempt to hide my disdain at a lot of these films, and with good reason: I am of the school of thought that if you want to spoof something, take one central idea, or genre, or specific film, and play it out scene-for-scene, with maybe a few scattered pop-culture references expertly thrown in for humorous effect. But lately, the formula seems to be "haphazardly sew together the plots of many, many, completely unmixable recent films, trends and tabloid headlines, and see what happens," and it really, really has to stop.

Which is why, after watching the trailer for Superhero Movie, I feel a spark of hope. This film, based almost exclusively on the Spider-Man franchise, seems to have quite a bit more to offer than "Hey! I know that reference!" going for it. Apart from the title, that is. I mean, where is it written that a spoof has to have the word "Movie" in the title? Is it just that after enduring Date Movie, Epic Movie and the entire Scary Movie franchise, we need that prompt to make the call? Well, we don't, Hollywood. I mean, Airplane! and The Naked Gun series did just fine without that, if you hadn't noticed. This movie should have been called, say, Dragonfly-Man, and the point would have been made.

If you've been exposed to any part of the Spider-Man empire, you'll know the story parallel; Rick Riker (played by Drake and Josh star Drake Bell), is a nerdy outcast who, on a school field trip, gets bitten by a radioactive dragonfly, whereupon he becomes endowed with its proportional strength and abilities. According to the one-sheet, there will also be references to many other superhero flicks, including X-Men, Fantastic Four, Batman Begins and a few others, but hopefully these will be limited to a few brief sight gags, because truthfully, they really don't need to clutter the screen up in a mock-up that could stand on its own. Also, it's got the ageless spoof veteran Leslie Nielsen, Aquamarine mermaid Sara Paxton (in the Kirsten Dunst role) and, as the bad guy, Christopher McDonald, who everyone remembers as Shooter McGavin from Happy Gilmore.

Fantasy Moguls predicts that Superhero Movie will grab five Top 5 points, two PTA, an optimistic User Rating of 4.7 and $31 million in receipts. Given that that's about what Meet the Spartans was able to pull off, I'll go with those numbers too, but I half-heartedly hope it does better. Oh, and one final note to Hollywood: Pass a law forbidding the use of the word "Movie" in the title of any movie, let director Craig Mazin handle the spoofs for a good long while, and declare immediate jihad on Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer. Or better yet, put them on a rocket ship to the sun. Please. There's still time, for the love of God!

If 2007 taught us anything, it's that movies based on soldiers fighting in, or who have recently fought, in the Middle East (or, for that matter, anything to do with the Middle East at all) were not well-received by the American moviegoing public. Rendition bombed. The Kingdom, despite all its kudos, underwhelmed, and so did In the Valley of Elah, despite an Oscar-nominated performance by Tommy Lee Jones. Lions For Lambs was an unmitigated disaster, and even Charlie Wilson's War, some believe, came in well below its potential.

Which is why I feel safe in predicting that Stop-Loss will find its place on the scrap-heap with all the others. This movie, brought to us by MTV Films, does not have Tom Hanks, Tommy Lee Jones, Meryl Streep or Jamie Foxx in its cast, and that, I have to figure, counts for something. What it does have is Rendition star Reese Witherspoon's ex Ryan Phillippe as Sgt. Brandon King, a decorated war hero who returns to his hometown in Texas following his tour of duty. Trying to pick up the pieces with his wife and family, he is informed by the Army that he has been ordered to immediately return to Iraq, ostensibly because of manpower shortages (hence the term "stop loss"). Needless to say, Brandon has a problem with this, and he decides to challenge the government for the right to stay where he is.

Look, from the description and from its trailer, it sounds like a decent enough story, heartfelt, poignant and true-to-life. But its cast, which also includes Channing Tatum (Step Up) and Joseph Gordon-Levitt (The Lookout), is not strong enough to translate into box office success, even if it is directed by Kimberly Peirce, who, if you'll recall, guided Hilary Swank to her first Best Actress Oscar in 1999 with Boys Don't Cry. It just won't be enough to make people care, and I maintain that the reason why is that with the conflict still ongoing and very much a part of people's lives, people don't need reminders of how tough the situation is, especially not at the movies, a place where, for the most part, people go to escape reality for a couple of hours.

Three PTA, two Top 5, a 7.7 User Rating and $19 million is not, not, not enough to spend $15 of your budget in the Ultimate Leagues, period, end of story. $5 might be plausible in Box Office, but for a few dollars more, you could pick up Drillbit Taylor, Superhero Movie or Forbidden Kingdom, or you could save a couple of bucks and go with DOOMSDAY or Never Back Down, which are both opening wide this weekend, and both of which will only run you $2. Give Stop-Loss a pass.

Starting with 2004's raucous zombie flick Shaun of the Dead, Britisher Simon Pegg has slowly, quietly started to develop a pretty good fan base. With his subsequent roles in Mission: Impossible III (in a supporting role) and the awesome Hot Fuzz last year, as well as his upcoming turn as Scotty in next summer's Star Trek reboot, his star definitely seems to be on the rise. Whether that star is high enough in the sky to make Run, Fat Boy, Run a success remains to be seen.

In this film, Pegg plays Dennis, a somewhat dim-witted guy who inexplicably leaves his hot (but pregnant) fiancée (Thandie Newton) at the altar, a mistake that he has regretted every day since. Despite numerous attempts to win her back, a task he fails at for five years, he remains committed. But when he discovers that she has become engaged to a super-fit, super-rich, super-handsome American (Hank Azaria), he vows to show her the error of her ways by entering — and completing — a marathon. Yeah, I know.

Directed by David Schwimmer (yes, that one), and co-written by Pegg and comedian Michael Ian Black, Run features Simon in his element — the nerd who eventually becomes a hero. Although I feel I must point out that calling him "fat" is a bit of an overstatement. I mean, he is slightly pudgy in this film, but not on the level of, say, his Shaun and Fuzz partner Nick Frost. What Pegg does possess, from one review I read, is a split-second sense of comic timing, breathing life into an otherwise predictable and unremarkable script.

Much like British import The Bank Job earlier this month, I expect Run, Fat Boy, Run to bow in only 1,500 or so theaters (at most). I have yet to see any advertising or hype at all, so it may not even be that high. I doubt it will be high enough, in any case, to crack the Top 5, and PTA will be problematic at best. User Ratings should be decent, but I wouldn't count on much more than $12 million in box office. If you're already smarting from the suckitude of Semi-Pro, this is not going to be the one that cures you. $11 (Ultimate) is way too much, and $5 (Box Office) simply has better alternatives.

Props Department: Kudos go, for the very first time, to ME! That's right, it took me eight tries, but I finally emerged victorious in the just-completed December-February Regulars Ultimate league Something Wicked, scoring a razor-thin victory over Moguls stalwart SuperShaan. (My lineup: I Am Legend, Alvin and the Chipmunks, AVP2, The Water Horse, The Orphanage, Persepolis, Youth Without Youth and The Air I Breathe.) Long live me! However, I didn't fare nearly as well in the Box Office league Blizzard Conditions, coming in second ... to last. Congrats go to armobe2000 for a decisive victory in that contest, and with a roster containing only three films (I Am Legend, National Treasure: Book of Secrets, P.S. I Love You)! I guess sometimes, less IS more!

Well, that will do it for me for this week. Please return next week, when I will be knocking down the door of April with reviews of three films scheduled to be released on the first Friday of that month; Jodie Foster returns as a reclusive adventure-story writer who braves the peril and pitfalls of the wild in order to help her littlest fan (Abigail Breslin) in Nim's Island; George Clooney and Renee Zellweger team up for a 1920's football romp in Leatherheads; and in the proud tradition of Hostel and Turistas, more Americans vacationers stumble into grave danger, this time in the jungles of Mexico, in The Ruins.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare ain't running no marathon. He would, however, eat a footlong meatball sub to win back his old girlfriend, and maybe even a pint (or three) of Ben & Jerry's. Tell him what sacrifice you'd be willing to make at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.