• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 25, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: Ordinary 'People' Are 'Kings' on 'Prom Night' and a High-Five to the Summer Season

by Shrykespeare

Hello once again, and welcome to the latest issue of Bard's Eye View, the luxury box in which we Fantaversians sit and coffeehouse about the biggest of the big flicks coming out down the line. (Actually, that would be a description better attributed to the Message Boards, but I digress.) Whether you are a regular's regular, craning your neck upward to get full view of the three-story screen mere inches from your face, or whether you are perched in the nosebleed section, binocs in hand, preparing yourself for a full two hours of squinting, I bid you welcome. "Overture, curtain, lights, this is it, you'll hit the heights, and oh what heights we'll hit ... on with the show, this is it ... " (Wink.)

Apart from the beginning of baseball season (yay!) and the end of tax season (boo!), April seems to be, for the most part, filler. I mean, spring is in full bloom, hordes of lascivious teenagers are preparing to descend on our nation's various exotic party spots, and Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama (or Ms. Clinton?) are hunkering down for their long, drawn-out process of obtaining the least desirable position in the Universe. Going to movies in April, however, is a bit like sustaining yourself entirely on hors d'oeuvres; you're constantly checking your watch, constantly counting down the weeks, days, minutes until the sumptuous feast that is the summer movie season begins. Which is why, along with the three films (opening on April 11) I'll be previewing today, I've also decided to give you my opinion as to which of this summer's weekly conveyor belt of potential blockbusters will be the best and the biggest. That doesn't leave much room for idle chatter, so here we go.

It must be one of Hollywood's unwritten laws that if you're going to make a movie where most of the characters are high-schoolers, you cannot cast actors or actresses to play them who are ACTUALLY of high-school age. This is a rule that I've never quite understood. I mean, I suppose you're more likely to find more famous names in the 20-25 crowd than in the Miley Cyrus-age group, but still. No matter how much the makeup artists try to spackle in the actors' crows' feet, it's a pretty blatant insult to our intelligence for them to stand up there on the screen and say, "I just turned 17!" (Worst examples: Jesse Metcalfe, 28 at the time of John Tucker Must Die, Judd Nelson a robust 27 when The Breakfast Club came out, and Michael J. Fox, who was very nearly 30 when he made his final turn as Marty McFly in the third Back to the Future flick. Extra credit for those who can think of some others.)

The point of this aimless rant is that there is not one teenager to be found in the entire cast of Prom Night — a remake of the classic 1980 classic horror flick starring then-scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis — even though every character being portrayed is, by definition, a high school senior. American Dreams star Brittany Snow (22), The Hills Have Eyes 2 mutie-bait Jessica Stroup (21) and Jana Kramer of (24) TV's  Friday Night Lights lead a cast of gorgeous beauties experiencing the magic of their senior prom, with all the kitsch that entails, at an upscale hotel. Little do they know, however, that they will soon be at the mercy of a sadistic killer, who strikes from the shadows without mercy. Imagine if John Carpenter had gotten a hold of High School Musical ...

I'm ... not seeing this movie. I didn't see the original. What do you want to bet that the killer dies at the hand of the cute blond chick, who ends up being the only survivor (along with that one guy whose always had a crush on her but never got the chance to say it until now)? Sigh. I'm ranting again, aren't I? I apologize, dear readers, but these horror movies that are not even (oxymoron alert!) originally formulaic just really get my goat. However, if this is your thing, you may enjoy the ride.

It does have a shot at winning its opening weekend, depending on how the previous week's Leatherheads and Nim's Island get out of the gate ... but if I had to guess, I'd say five Top 5 points total, possibly a PTA point or two, a User Rating in the 4.0-5.5 range and about $35 million, tops, in total take. Only three horror films broke $40 million last year (1408, Saw IV, Halloween), and I don't think this will even come close. It's priced at $12 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, and if you want to take this risky venture, be my guest.

It's not often that a film that gets showcased at prestigious film festivals like Sundance ends up being shown in wide release. Not only is it often a problem for even the most critically-acclaimed indie films to get proper distribution, advertising and/or hype, but because it often goes against what the whole point of those festivals is. However, occasionally one pops up, riding a wave of outstanding reviews all the way to cineplexes everywhere. Such is the case for Smart People, which could very well be a breakout hit for Miramax films after being shown at Sundance in January.

This film, directed by newbie helmer Noam Murro, has a shot at being one of the best-reviewed films of the year. It was a darling at Sundance (no mean feat, that), and it stars four very marketable actors in the lead roles, players who are riding hot streaks in their careers, or at the very least, coasting. Let's run them down: veteran thespian Dennis Quaid, whose surprise hit Vantage Point has breathed life back into a career that had been foundering since 2002's The Rookie; Sarah Jessica Parker, who's only really managed two mid-range films between the end of her Sex and the City series in 2004 and the movie adaptation of same coming at the end of May (Failure to Launch and The Family Stone); Thomas Haden Church, the former Wings supporting player who scored big with critics in Sideways and had a whiff of box-office stardom in last year's Spider-Man 3; and finally, Ellen Page, the winsome young actress who took America by storm with her Oscar-nominated performance in Juno this past winter. Not too shabby, as casts go.

If "dysfunctional quirky family comedy" is your bag, then this might be one to keep your eye on. The plot: Dr. Janet Hartigan (Parker) agrees to look after her former professor (Quaid) while he is recovering from a seizure, a condition that has rendered him unable to drive. What she doesn't realize is that this decision will bring a boatload of baggage with it, including her professor's thinly-veiled advances, the acerbic attitude of his 21-year-old daughter (Page), and the sudden appearance of his ne'er-do-well brother (Haden Church). One IMDb reviewer enthusiastically called it "smart, funny and more complex than Juno. Don't get me wrong, I loved Juno, but Smart People is on a parallel level of quality with it despite being more complex in terms of the characters and their relationships." Most who have rated this film would seem to be in agreement, as it currently boasts a User Rating of 7.9 (after 226 votes).

Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns managed four PTA points on its opening weekend despite being released in only 2,000 theaters, and I foresee Smart People doing just as well. It might snag a Top 5 point or two as well, which makes a pretty darn good pick for $13. True, it probably won't get you as much box office as Prom Night or Leatherheads, or as many PTA points as Shine a Light or My Blueberry Nights all told, but I doubt you'll be disappointed with the results. And as for spending $5 in Box Office, well ... everyone expected Juno to make $140 million, right? Right?

I'm going to break with tradition and not attempt to feign ignorance (grin) while talking about Street Kings, the latest gritty drama to be brought to us by David Ayer. In case you don't know who that is, he wrote the screenplays for similar gritty cop dramas Training Day, Dark Blue, S.W.A.T. and Harsh Times (which he also directed), and now he's helming this picture, which was co-written by Kurt Wimmer (The Recruit) and the legendary James Ellroy (L.A. Confidential). These people know their genre, folks. Add to that a cast that includes more recognizable names than you can shake a stick at: Keanu Reeves, Forest Whitaker, Chris Evans, Naomie Harris, Cedric the Entertainer, Jay Mohr and rappers Common and The Game, as well as TV stars Amaury Nolasco (Prison Break) and the awesome Hugh Laurie (House, M.D.). Im-freakin'-pressive.

I'm just not sure what to expect with this one. I'd like to tell you that such an outstanding display of talent will create a story even greater than the sum of its parts, but ... this looks like the type of film to me that will succeed on the backs of its leads more than the story itself. Not that I have anything against Ayer or Ellroy — far from it. Training Day and L.A. Confidential are as awesome as they come, although the less said about the 2006 adaptation of The Black Dahlia (based on Ellroy's novel), the better. This story is about a veteran LAPD cop (Reeves) who is implicated in the death of a fellow officer, and must deal with corruption and vice on both sides of the law before the big blue wall comes crashing down on him.

Again, I may be wrong, but this doesn't sound like anything fresh or new. Heck, it sounds like any of a half-dozen episodes of Law & Order. This uncertainty, I'll wager, is why Fantasy Moguls has predicted only a single PTA point, one Top 5 point, a Rating of 5.3 and only $17.5 million in total receipts. It's probably also why they tagged it with a bargain-basement tag of $4 in Ultimate ($5 in Box Office), which is a good thing, because this movie would have to tank very badly to not be worth such a paltry amount. And with this stellar a cast, that just ain't gonna happen. It won't set the theaters on fire, but it should bring you decent enough numbers.

Now, it's time for me to put my neck squarely on the chopping block by pinpointing the biggest guns of Summer 2008, the five films that will end up outgrossing all others in this latest, very crowded summer. I'm sure all these will be enormously priced, and some may not even be worth it anyway, but I'll leave that analysis for a later time. For now, here are my Top 5:

5. Hancock (July 2) —  I've heard from someone who knows someone who just recently saw an advanced (and incomplete) screening of this film, that this is going to be quite a letdown, not up to Will Smith's standards at all. Big Willy, however,  has 11 consecutive blockbusters in his back pocket, and he even managed to turn I Am Legend, a creative flopperoo in my judgment, into this past winter's largest hit. Plus, the former Mr. Fourth of July indeed has the July 4 weekend all to himself here, the coveted Transformers spot from last year. Until Smith shows me that he can, in fact, fail, I'm not going to be the one who picks him to do it. Total Gross: $180 million

4. Iron Man (May 2 ... or is it April 30?) — Being the first thoroughbred out of the gate has to count for something ... just ask previous comic-book adaptations like Spider-Man 3 and X2. Much has already been said, however, about the fact that Iron Man isn't, and probably never will be, one of Marvel's major heroes. I love the fact that many of Marvel's second-tier titles have been greenlit for full-scale films, and I love that Robert Downey Jr. was given the role of Tony Stark in this one. It'll be better received than Ghost Rider and the two Fantastic Four films, but it won't even come close to touching our favorite webhead or Charles Xavier's gang of mutants. Total Gross: $200 million

3. Wall-E (June 27) — This is the toughest one to pinpoint of all of 'em, folks. Pixar is batting 1.000 thus far, and I don't see its quality diminishing any time soon. Following hot on the heels of the Oscar-winning Ratatouille, this story of a lonely robot 700 years in the future could easily be the No. 1 movie of the year, the No. 1 animated movie of all time, and a surefire Oscar winner in its own right. But I'm going to play it safe here, and give what many people will probably believe is a lowball estimate. Total Gross: $240 million

2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 21) —  Given that it's been nearly two decades since The Last Crusade, can the now-65-year-old Harrison Ford make the most famous archaeologist in movie history a hero for a new generation? Do I really have to ask? I mean, it's Spielberg, for Heaven's sake! This film will play for everyone between 10 and 65, both in terms of nostalgia and thrills. And Indy films have always held up to multiple viewings, even 20-plus years later. Total Gross: $280 million

1. The Dark Knight (July 18) —  Any doubts that I had about which '08 film would end up as the box-office champion were erased by the tragic, premature death of Heath Ledger. And if what I hear about Nolan and Bale giving serious consideration to not making a third installment for the reinvigorated Batman franchise are true, this film could very well give the original Spider-Man a run for its money as the biggest superhero film of all time ($403 million). For now, however, I'll stay conservative. Total Gross: $350 million

Well, that will do it for me for this week. Please return next week, when, in addition to giving you my take on the five NEXT biggest films of the summer, I'll also be recapping the possibilities for four more films, which are scheduled for release on April 18; Al Pacino plays a criminal psychologist who is threatened with imminent death in 88 Minutes; the world's two foremost martial-arts stars, Jackie Chan and Jet Li, team up for the first time ever in Forbidden Kingdom; How I Met Your Mother star Jason Segel jets off to Hawaii to recover from the breakup with his celebrity girlfriend, only to find that she happens to be staying at the exact same hotel (don't'cha just hate that?) in Forgetting Sarah Marshall; and Alyssa Milano and Milo Ventimiglia lead a group of medical students who try to devise the perfect murder in the oft-postponed Pathology.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare was actually 45 when he was asked to play a 17-year-old Fantasy Moguls columnist in Fantaverse the Movie. It was a young 45, though, so he took the gig. In Fantaverse 2: Electric Boogaloo, he was replaced by Ian Ziering. Let him know who should be up for the part in Fantaverse III: The Ocarina of Time by writing to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 07:52 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef00e55171bda08833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference BARD'S EYE VIEW: Ordinary 'People' Are 'Kings' on 'Prom Night' and a High-Five to the Summer Season:

Comments

JackO

Yeah, Smart People is my sleeper hit of April. Street Kings will also overachieve because it has a top class distributor (Fox Searchlight). I also like Baby Mama, but it's no bargain.

Posted by: JackO | March 25, 2008 at 02:49 PM

Matthew Martin

Prom Night will top the weekend but Street Kings will have the legs.

More older actors playing high school students: Rachel McAdams was at least 26 when she made Mean Girls. Young actors: Claire Danes was 13 when she shot the pilot for My So-Called Life.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | March 25, 2008 at 03:34 PM

craig wilkins

Love the CDN content already, but lets add the always beautiful Neve Campbell who was 23 playing Sydney in Scream, My super secret(not so anymore I suppose)crush Lindy Booth who was 26, I believe, when she Played Dodger in Cry_wolf, and if we want the all time classic, the Immortal Mary Pickford was 28 when she played 12 year old Pollyanna in 1920.

Posted by: craig wilkins | March 25, 2008 at 08:05 PM

DacknotRick

Can't agree on the summer calls, Bard. With the exception of Hancock, it seems to me you think the grosses will match the quality of the films themselves. $240 million for WALL-E? That's only a remote possibility at this point. $350 million for The Dark Knight? No way it's gonna outgross Transformers. And $280 million for Indy looks at least $40 million too high. But we'll see come summer, won't we? ;)

Posted by: DacknotRick | March 28, 2008 at 06:35 AM

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.

You are currently signed in as (nobody). Sign Out

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service