WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Horton' Hears $26.56M 3-Day; 'Meet the Browns' in Second w/$20M; 'Shutter' in Photo Finish with 'Drillbit' for No. 3; 'Under the Same Moon' Cracks the Top 10; 'Planet B-Boy' Surprise PTA Winner!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) continued its box-office roll on Saturday, adding another $9.45 million, but it was down 10 percent from its monstrous Good Friday. The CGI Dr. Seuss adaptation should grab another $6.61 million or so on Easter Sunday for a three-day of $26.56 million, giving Horton the all-time fourth-best Easter weekend box office performance.
ALL-TIME BEST EASTER WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PERFORMERS
1. Scary Movie — $40.2 million
2. Panic Room — $30 million
3. The Matrix — $27.7 million
4. Horton Hears a Who! — $26.56 million (Estimated)
5. Liar, Liar — $25.3 million
My revised weekend projection of $26.56 million is off slightly from the $28.15 million that I predicted on Friday night, but Horton Hears a Who! will have banked $87.93 million by Monday morning, giving it the all-time third-best 10-day gross for a movie opening in March:
ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR MOVIES OPENING IN MARCH
1. 300 — $129.1 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.7 million
3. Horton Hears a Who — $87.93 million (Estimated)
4. Ice Age — $87.2 million
5. Wild Hogs — $77 million
Also, its 10-day performance will be No. 12 all-time for animated films:
ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS
1. Shrek the Third — $203.3 million
2. Shrek 2 — $184.8 million
3. Finding Nemo — $144 million
4. The Incredibles — $143.2 million
5. The Simpsons Movie — $128 million
6. Monsters, Inc. — $122.1 million
7. Cars — $117 million
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.7 million
9. Ratatouille — $109.5 million
10. Madagascar — $100.3 million
11. Happy Feet — $99.2 million
12. Horton Hears a Who! — $87.93 million (Estimated)
13. Shark Tale — $87.3 million
14. Ice Age — $87.2 million
15. Toy Story 2 — $80.4 million
Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns was down 11 percent from its opening day for $7.29 million, and the fifth feature film from the African-American auteur will likely give him another $20 million-plus opening weekend. I'm anticipating $4.59 million on Easter Sunday for Browns, completing a $20.09 million opening weekend, which is solid, but No. 4 on his box office resume:
ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion — $30 million opening
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman — $21.9 million opening
3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married — $21.3 million opening
4. Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns — $20.1 million opening (Estimated)
5. Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls — $11.2 million opening
New releases Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) and Shutter (20th Century Fox) are in a dead heat for Saturday, but it looks as though the low-budget horror flick will win the weekend. I expect Shutter to finish No. 3 with $10.63 million, while the poorly reviewed Owen Wilson vehicle written by Seth Rogen will manage only $10.12 million. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) will be fifth for the weekend with $8.84 million, pushing Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic past $76 million domestic.
Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.), the Audience Award winner at the 2007 Sundance Film Festival, continues to perform very well at its 266 locations, with $935,000 on Saturday. The film, which features Ugly Betty star America Ferrera in a small role, will finish the weekend with about $2.34 million, which should be good enough for the Top 10.
Here is how I think the 3-Day PTA scoreboard will look:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $14,000 PTA
2. Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $12,000 PTA
3. Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $10,018 PTA
4. The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $9,694 PTA
5. Love Songs (IFC Films) — $9,000 PTA
6. Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $8,532 PTA
7. Race (UTV Communications) — $7,292 PTA
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) — $6,707 PTA
9. The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $5,500 PTA
10. The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $4,426 PTA
And here are the Early Saturday and Revised 3-Day Estimates:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $9.45 million, $2,386 PTA, $81.3 million cume
2. NEW Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $7.29 million, $3,638 PTA, $15.49 million cume
3. NEW Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) — $3.72 million, $1,219 PTA, $7.77 million cume
4. NEW Shutter (20th Century Fox) — $3.67 million, $1,334 PTA, $8.32 million cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $3.44 million, $996 PTA, $74 million cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $1.76 million, $1,096 PTA, $18.3 million cume
7. Never Back Down (Summit) — $1.72 million, $630 PTA, $15.5 million cume
8. College Road Trip (Disney) — $1.67 million, $650 PTA, $30.8 million cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) — $1.54 million, $729 PTA, $64.3 million cume
10. NEW Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $935,000, $3,515 PTA, $2.34 million cume
11. Doomsday (Universal) — $860,000, $444 PTA, $8.3 million cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $830,000, $699 PTA, $22 million cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $600,000, $1,130 PTA, $7.1 million cume
14. Semi-Pro (New Line) — $470,000, $411 PTA, $32 million cume
15. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $400,000, $326 PTA, $67.4 million cume
* NEW Race (UTV Communications) — $275,000, $2,865 PTA, $500,000 cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $210,000, $4,286 PTA, $1.6 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $205,000, $718 PTA, $5.6 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $125,000, $2,049 PTA, $1.6 million cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $100,000, $437 PTA, $74 million cume
* Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $95,000, $328 PTA, $944,000 cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $85,000, $379 PTA, $39.6 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $45,000, $1,731 PTA, $293,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $37,000, $1,028 PTA, $239,000 cume
* NEW The Hammer (International Film Circuit) — $32,000, $1,600 PTA, $63,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $22,000, $1,467 PTA, $91,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $16,000, $762 PTA, $150,000 cume
* NEW Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $10,000, $5,000 PTA, $22,000 cume
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $9,000, $130 PTA, $80,000 cume
* NEW Love Songs (IFC Films) — $7,200, $3,600 PTA, $13,200 cume
* NEW Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $4,952, $4,952 PTA, $8,803 cume
* NEW The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $4,128, $2,064 PTA, $8,282 cume
* NEW Irina Palm (Strand) — $1,414, $1,414 PTA, $2,634 cume
* NEW Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) — $1,122, $1,122 PTA, $1,746 cume
* NEW Shelter (Regent) — $1,069, $1,069 PTA, $2,284 cume
* NEW FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) — $703, $703 PTA, $3,474 cume
* NEW Kenny (Arcangelo) — $416, $416 PTA, $678 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $26.56 million, $6,707 PTA, $87.9 million cume
2. NEW Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $20.09 million, $10,018 PTA, $20.09 million cume
3. NEW Shutter (20th Century Fox) — $10.52 million, $3,824 PTA, $10.52 million cume
4. NEW Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) — $10.12 million, $3,313 PTA, $10.12 million cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $8.84 million, $2,561 PTA, $76.3 million cume
6. Never Back Down (Summit) — $4.65 million, $1,704 PTA, $16.6 million cume
7. College Road Trip (Disney) — $4.5 million, $1,748 PTA, $31.8 million cume
8. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $4.23 million, $2,625 PTA, $19.5 million cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) — $3.68 million, $1,737 PTA, $65.1 million cume
10. NEW Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $2.26 million, $8,532 PTA, $3 million cume
11. Doomsday (Universal) — $2.13 million, $1,102 PTA, $8.8 million cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $2.08 million, $1,759 PTA, $22.6 million cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $1.42 million, $2,689 PTA, $7.4 million cume
14. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $1.2 million, $979 PTA, $67.7 million cume
15. Semi Pro (New Line) — $1.18 million, $1,037 PTA, $32.3 million cume
* NEW Race (UTV Communications) — $700,000, $7,292 PTA, $679,000 cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $495,000, $2,292 PTA, $5.9 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $475,000, $9,694 PTA, $1.7 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $270,000, $4,426 PTA, $1.6 million cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $240,000, $1,048 PTA, $74.1 million cume
* Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $235,000, $810 PTA, $1 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $210,000, $938 PTA, $39.6 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $115,000, $4,423 PTA, $324,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $90,000, $2,500 PTA, $265,000 cume
* NEW The Hammer (International Film Circuit) — $83,000- $4,150 PTA, $83,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $50,000, $3,333 PTA, $106,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $42,000, $2,000 PTA, $160,000 cume
* NEW Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $28,000, $14,000 PTA, $28,000 cume
* Sleepwalking (Overture) — $22,000, $319 PTA, $86,000 cume
* NEW Love Songs (IFC Films) — $18,000, $9,000 PTA, $18,000 cume
* NEW Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $12,000, $12,000 PTA, $12,000 cume
* NEW The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $11,000, $5,500 PTA, $11,000 cume
* NEW FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) — $3,900, $3,900 PTA, $3,900 cume
* NEW Irina Palm (Strand) — $3,553, $3,553 PTA, $3,553 cume
* NEW Shelter (Regent) — $3,000- $3,000 PTA, $3,000 cume
* NEW Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) — $2,419, $2,419 PTA, $2,419 cume
* NEW Kenny (Arcangelo) — $928, $928 PTA, $928 cume
FRIDAY NIGHT: Easter weekend will be a triumph for Horton and his tiny friends in Whoville. 20th Century Fox's animated Dr. Seuss adaptation Horton Hears a Who!
enjoyed a great Good Friday, adding $11.3 million, and the well-reviewed
family film will register an estimated $28.15 million in ticket sales for the
weekend, giving it a second consecutive weekend win. Despite the fact that Horton is in its second weekend, it will still likely post the all-time third-best Easter weekend in modern box-office history:
ALL-TIME BEST EASTER WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PERFORMERS
1. Scary Movie — $40.2 million
2. Panic Room — $30 million
3. Horton Hears a Who! — $28.15 million (Estimated)
4. The Matrix — $27.7 million
5. Liar, Liar — $25.3 million
By Monday morning, Horton, featuring the voices of Jim Carrey, Steve Carell and Carol Burnett, will have an estimated domestic cume of $89.52 million, giving it the all-time third best 10-day performance for a movie opening in the month of March:
ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR MOVIES OPENING IN MARCH
1. 300 — $129.1 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.7 million
3. Horton Hears a Who — $89.52 million (Estimated)
4. Ice Age — $87.2 million
5. Wild Hogs — $77 million
If the weekend projection holds, Horton will also have posted the all-time 12th-best 10-day gross for an animated film in box office history.
ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS
1. Shrek the Third — $203.3 million
2. Shrek 2 — $184.8 million
3. Finding Nemo — $144 million
4. The Incredibles — $143.2 million
5. The Simpsons Movie — $128 million
6. Monsters, Inc. — $122.1 million
7. Cars — $117 million
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.7 million
9. Ratatouille — $109.5 million
10. Madagascar — $100.3 million
11. Happy Feet — $99.2 million
12. Horton Hears a Who — $89.52 million (Estimated)
13. Shark Tale — $87.3 million
14. Ice Age — $87.2 million
15. Toy Story 2 — $80.4 million
Tyler Perry is quickly becoming the model of box office consistency. His new film, Meet the Browns (Lionsgate), registered a solid $7.7M on Friday, which will likely translate to an opening weekend of just over $20M. Although that’s well off of his career high of $30M for Madea’s Family Reunion, his second film, this would give Perry his fifth $20M+ opening in five attempts.
ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion — $30 million opening
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman — $21.9 million opening
3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married — $21.3 million opening
4. Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns — $20.1 million opening (Estimated)
5. Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls — $11.2 million opening
20th Century Fox's horror flick Shutter was No. 3 on Friday with $4.4 million, compared to $4 million for Drillbit Taylor (Paramount). The poorly reviewed Owen Wilson vehicle will most likely finish third for the weekend, narrowly edging Shutter, which wasn't screened for critics. Both of the new wide releases should crack $10 million for the holiday three-day.
Sundance Film Festival Audience Award winner Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) is receiving a warm reception at 266 locations. The well-reviewed drama, which opened on Wednesday, grabbed $620,000 or so on Friday, and it should crack $2 million for the weekend. That would translate as a $7,800-plus Per Theatre Average.
A large number of specialty films hit the market this weekend, and several are noteworthy. The documentary Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films), about a breakdancing competition in Europe, seized $12,000 at two locations on Friday for a $6,000 PTA. That could mean as much as a $16,000 per screen for the weekend. The French film Boarding Gate (Magnolia) appears headed for a $13,000 take at its single 3-day engagement, and the Oscar winner The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) and Meet the Browns will both figure prominently in the weekend PTA race. Here’s a rough early estimate of the likely 10 best Per Theater performers for the weekend.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $16,000 PTA
2. Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $13,000 PTA
3. The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $10,653 PTA
4. Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $10,020 PTA
5. Love Songs (IFC Films) — $10,000 PTA
6. FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) — $8,313 PTA
7. Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $7,808 PTA
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) — $7,107 PTA
9. Race (UTV Communications) — $6,875 PTA
10. The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $6,500 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $11.3M, $2,853 PTA, $72.6 million cume
2. NEW Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $7.7M, $4,200 PTA, $7.7 million cume
3. NEW Shutter (20th Century Fox) — $4.4M, $1,440 PTA, $4.4 million cume
4. NEW Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) — $4M, $1,200 PTA, $4 million cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $3.2M, $926 PTA, $70.6 million cume
6. College Road Trip (Disney) — $1.95M, $757 PTA, $29.3 million cume
7. Never Back Down (Summit) — $1.9M, $696 PTA, $13.8 million cume
8. Vantage Point (Sony) — $1.4M, $659 PTA, $62.8 million cume
9. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $1.3M, $806 PTA, $16.6 million cume
10. Doomsday (Universal) — $745,000, $385 PTA, $7.4 million cume
11. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $720,000, $606 PTA, $21.2 million cume
12. NEW Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $620,000, $2,331 PTA, $1.34 million cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $435,000, $819 PTA, $6.4 million cume
14. Semi-Pro (New Line) — $420,000, $367 PTA, $31.6 million cume
15. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $400,000, $326 PTA, $66.9 million cume
* NEW Race (UTV Communications) — $225,000, $2,200 PTA, $225,000 cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $155,000, $718 PTA, $5.6 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $120,000, $2,449 PTA, $1.4 million cume
* Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $80,000, $276 PTA, $849,000 cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $70,000, $306 PTA, $73.9 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $65,000, $290 PTA, $39.5 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $60,000, $984 PTA, $1.4 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $33,000, $1,269 PTA, $248,000
* NEW The Hammer (International Film Circuit) — $31,000, $1,542 PTA, $31,000 cume
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $26,000, $722 PTA, $202,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $14,000, $667 PTA, $134,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $13,000, $867 PTA, $69,000 cume
* NEW Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $12,000, $6,000 PTA, $12,000 cume
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $7,000, $101 PTA, $71,000 cume
* NEW Love Songs (IFC Films) — $6,000, $3,000 PTA, $6,000 cume
* NEW The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $4,154, $2,077 PTA, $4,154 cume
* NEW Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $3,851, $3,851 PTA, $3,851 cume
* NEW FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) — $2,771, $2,771 PTA, $2,771 cume
* NEW Irina Palm (Strand) — $1,220, $1,220 PTA, $1,221 cume
* NEW Shelter (Regent) — $1,215, $1,215 PTA, $1,215 cume
* NEW Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) — $624, $624 PTA, $624 cume
* NEW Kenny (Arcangelo) — $262, $262 PTA, $262 cume
* NEW Resolved (Independent) — $42, $42 PTA, $42 cume
* NEW At the Death House Door (Independent) — $14, $14 PTA, $14 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $28.15M, $7,107 PTA, $89.52 million cume
2. NEW Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) — $20.1M, $10,020 PTA, $20.1 million cume
3. NEW Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) — $10.72M, $3,508 PTA, $10.72 million cume
4. NEW Shutter (20th Century Fox) — $10.56M, $3,836 PTA, $10.56 million cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $9.25M, $2,678 PTA, $76.7 million cume
6. College Road Trip (Disney) — $7.11M, $2,764 PTA, $34.4 million cume
7. Never Back Down (Summit) — $5.41M, $1,984 PTA, $17.3 million cume
8. Vantage Point (Sony) — $4.76M, $2,241 PTA, $66.2 million cume
9. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $4.61M, $2,861 PTA, $19.9 million cume
10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $2.41M, $2,030 PTA, $22.9 million cume
11. Doomsday (Universal) — $2.27M, $1,173 PTA, $8.9 million cume
12. NEW Under the Same Moon (The Weinstein Co.) — $2.07M, $7,808 PTA, $2.8 million cume
13. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $1.6M, $1,309 PTA, $68.1 million cume
14. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $1.52M, $2,867 PTA, $7.5 million cume
15. Semi-Pro (New Line) — $1.38M, $1,212 PTA, $32.5 million cume
* NEW Race (UTV Communications) — $660,000, $6,875 PTA, $660,000 cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $575,000, $2,662 PTA, $6 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $522,000, $10,653 PTA, $1.8 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $267,000, $4,377 PTA, $1.6 million cume
* Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $252,000, $869 PTA, $1 million cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $250,000, $1,092 PTA, $74.1 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $245,000, $1,094 PTA, $39.7 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $122,000, $4,692 PTA, $337,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $91,000, $2,528 PTA, $268,000 cume
* NEW The Hammer (International Film Circuit) — $78,000, $3,900 PTA, $78,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $46,000, $3,067 PTA, $102,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $41,000, $1,952 PTA, $161,000 cume
* NEW Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) — $32,000, $16,000 PTA, $32,000 cume
* Sleepwalking (Overture) — $24,000, $348 PTA, $88,000 cume
* NEW Love Songs (IFC Films) — $20,000, $10,000 PTA, $20,000 cume
* NEW The Grand (Anchor Bay) — $13,000, $6,500 PTA, $13,000 cume
* NEW Boarding Gate (Magnolia) — $13,000, $13,000 PTA, $13,000 cume
* NEW FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) — $8,313, $8,313 PTA, $8,313 cume
* NEW Irina Palm (Strand) — $4,270, $4,270 PTA, $4,270 cume
* NEW Shelter (Regent) — $3,645- $3,645 PTA, $3,645 cume
* NEW Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) — $1,716, $1,716 PTA, $1,716 cume
* NEW Kenny (Arcangelo) — $668, $668 PTA, $668 cume
* NEW Resolved (Independent) — $116, $116 PTA, $116 cume
* NEW At the Death House Door (Independent) — $39, $39 PTA, $39 cume
I still have the feeling you're low-balling Tyler Perry. Meet The Browns should do far better than Why Did I Get Married. I wouldn't be surprised if the actuals end up closer to $25mil...
Posted by: annyonggob888 | March 22, 2008 at 01:49 AM
Also Mase, I think you're underestimating the Saturday bump or the Sunday gross. If Horton gets $11.3 million on Friday, it should get at least $13-14mil on Saturday which leaves it on $24-$25mil. Surely it'll get higher than $3mil on Sunday?
And with Meet The Browns, if you're right with the $7.7mil Friday, it should get at least an $8-$10mil Saturday which should give it around $16-$18mil after 2 days, it'll make much more than $20mil for the 3 days, is all I'm saying...
Posted by: annyonggob888 | March 22, 2008 at 04:19 AM
With all due respect Steve, "Boarding Gate" is a French film, not a Korean film, directed by Olivier Assayas.
Posted by: Indie Jones | March 22, 2008 at 04:55 AM
Anny: there isn't as big a bump from Friday to Saturday because yesterday was Good Friday i.e. no school and the number was more like a typical Saturday. Last year, DIsney's Meet the Robinsons dropped 7% on the Saturday before Easter and then another 46% on Easter proper so Mace's $28.15 is wisely conservative based on past Easter trends
Posted by: Edward Douglas | March 22, 2008 at 06:00 AM
Ok fair enough E.D. Thanks for the heads up. You learn something new everyday don't you?
However I do stick by my assertion that Mase is lowballing Meet The Browns. I still think it'll be closer to $25mil than the $20mil he's giving.
Posted by: annyonggob888 | March 22, 2008 at 07:32 AM
I think it's safe to say that Apatow is no longer gold anymore.
Posted by: JackO | March 22, 2008 at 09:40 AM
I think Apatow is still more consistent than any other comedy director out right now. Yeah, he slipped with Walk Hard and Drillbit Taylor, but remember he has Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Pineapple Express, You Don't Mess With The Zohan, & I Love You, Man all coming later this year. Don't count him out yet...
Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | March 22, 2008 at 02:26 PM
i don't think we should associate every comedy that has any sign of apatow as his movie....the only movies he's directed are 40-year old virgin and knocked up - both classics....he's written 'Virgin', 'Fun with Dick and Jane', 'Knocked Up' and 'Walk Hard' - and with the exception of 'Fun' which i haven't seen, i can arguably claim all the rest to be a touch of genius. finally, he's only PRODUCED talladega nights, superbad, sarah marshall, DBT and pineapple express....so let's not get ahead of ourselves in labelling any movie that has him listed as anything as a sure-fire hit.... if he's directed a movie, so far it's been the midas touch, but as a producer, he's had his share of misses, from 'kicking and screaming' to 'DBT'....
Posted by: ashkul | March 22, 2008 at 04:11 PM
Apologies to Olivier Assayas, whose short in Paris je t'aime was one of my favorites. Lots of small specialty films, and I got them a bit mixed up.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | March 22, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Drillbit Taylor. A bomb of epic proportions. Shutter beat it! Thank goodness I sold that stock! It should be out of the top 5 next week.
Posted by: JackO | March 23, 2008 at 09:43 AM
Hey annoyingbob,
How about some props for Mase for accurately calling Meet The Browns. Looks like he hit it dead on while it looks like you may have overestimated its appeal.
--Keyser Soze
Posted by: Keyser Soze | March 24, 2008 at 07:47 AM