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March 15, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Horton' Hears Big Moolah with $44M and All-Time 4th-Best March Opening! '10,000 BC' off 56 percent w/$15.93M 3-Day; 'Never Back Down' No. 3 w/$8.33M; 'Snow Angels' wins PTA!

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: An elephant named Horton and the residents of a certain tiny dust speck are celebrating a huge opening weekend for the CGI-animated Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox). Featuring the voices of Jim Carrey, Steve Carrell and comedy legend Carol Burnett, the Dr. Seuss adaptation received a 40 percent, family-driven Friday-to-Saturday increase for an $18.62 million second day. Assuming a 35 percent Sunday drop, Horton will deliver another $12.1 million, giving the warmly-reviewed charmer $44.02 million in the bank by Sunday night.

As I first reported Friday night, Horton Hears a Who! will officially become the all-time fourth-best March opening (trailing 300, Ice Age: the Meltdown and its predecessor Ice Age), the fourth-best opening for an animated film from Fox (behind The Simpsons Movie and the 2 Ice Age films) and the 14th-best animated opening in modern box-office history (scroll down to my Friday Night report for more detail).

Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) is defying, to some degree, the overwhelmingly negative reaction from critics. The prehistoric epic got a 39 percent Saturday bump for a $6.81M Saturday. 10KBC should wrap up the weekend with $15.93 million. That's down approximately 56 percent from its successful opening frame, but was more than enough to rank No. 2, well ahead of Summit's Never Back Down. The teen kick-'em-up was down about 4 percent from its better-than-expected opening day. The low budget MMA teen drama starring newcomer Sean Faris fell to the No. 4 spot on Saturday with $3.12 million, but it'll finish third for the weekend with an estimated $8.33 million. In an interesting sidebar, Never Back Down Director Jeff Wadlow is CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric's nephew.

College Road Trip (Disney) had a good Saturday with $3.63 million, and this Martin Lawrence/Raven-Symone movie adventure will be No. 4 for the weekend with $7.89 million. That's a respectable hold, down about 43 percent from last weekend. The weekend Top 5 is rounded out by the remarkably durable Vantage Point (Sony). The assassination thriller seized another $2.49 million on its fourth Saturday in release. Point will manage another $5.5 million for the three-day, bringing its domestic cume to $59 million. The weekend bomb is Doomsday from Universal. Maverick horror specialist Neil Marshall (The Descent) has missed with this futuristic action thriller. The film lurched to $1.78 million on Saturday, and its opening weekend take will be only in the $4.5 million range.

It'll be very uphill for two new limited releases. Warner Independent's Funny Games, from Cannes Film Festival winner Michael Haneke (Cache), will bank only $515,000 from its 289 engagements for a three-day Per Theatre Average of just $1,782. Meanwhile, Sleepwalking (Overture), starring Charlize Theron and Nick Stahl, has staggered out of the gates with a $1,500 PTA at just 30 locations. The weekend PTA winner appears to be holdover Snow Angels (Warner Independent), with an average of $13,000 at each of its locations, followed by Horton Hears a Who at $11,133 and two Sony Classics titles: Best Foreign Language Film Oscar winner The Counterfeiters with $10,303, Married Life with $5,277 and The Band's Visit with $5,000.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $18.62 million, $4,709 PTA, $31.92 million cume
2. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $6.81 million, $1,997 PTA, $56.5 million cume
3. College Road Trip (Disney) — $3.63 million, $1,343 PTA, $22.1 million cume
4. NEW Never Back Down (Summit) — $3.12 million, $1,143 PTA, $6.37 million cume
5. Vantage Point (Sony) — $2.49 million, $904 PTA, $57.9 million cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate)
— $2.11 million, $1,312 PTA, $11.7 million cume
7. NEW Doomsday (Universal) — $1.78 million, $920 PTA, $3.43 million cume
8. Semi Pro (New Line) — $1.26M, $557 PTA, $29 million cume
9. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $1.17 million, $973 PTA, $18.3 million cume
10. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $1.02 million, $424 PTA , $64.6 million cume
11. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $900,000, $561 PTA, $75.1 million cume
12. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $825,000, $1,531 PTA, $4.7 million cume
13. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $790,000, $525 PTA, $65 million cume
14. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $680,000, $440 PTA, $55.1 million cume
15. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $540,000, $638 PTA, $139.5 million cume
* Penelope (Summit) — $400,000, $528 PTA, $8 million cume
* Definitely Maybe (Universal) — $300,000, $470 PTA, $30.5 million cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $285,000, $558 PTA, $73.6 million cume
* NEW Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $205,000, $709 PTA, $385,000 cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $195,000, $924 PTA, $5 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $155,000, $4,697 PTA, $1 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $138,000, $407 PTA, $39.2 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $115,000, $2,396 PTA, $1.2 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $41,000, $2,278 PTA, $145,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $37,000, $1,682 PTA, $122,000 cume
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $18,000, $600 PTA, $31,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $16,000, $5,333 PTA, $47,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $11,000, $440 PTA, $81,000 cume
* NEW Flash Point (Third Rail) — $1,246, $125 PTA, $2,066 cume
* NEW Wetlands Preserved (First Run) — $383, $383 PTA, $1,509 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $44 million, $11,133 PTA, $44 million cume
2. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $15.93 million, $4,672 PTA, $60.7 million cume
3. NEW Never Back Down (Summit) — $8.33 million, $3,054 PTA, $8.33 million cume
4. College Road Trip (Disney) — $7.89 million, $2,916 PTA, $24.2 million cume
5. Vantage Point (Sony) — $5.5 million, $1,739 PTA, $59.2 million cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate)
— $5 million, $3,103 PTA, $13.2 million cume
7. NEW Doomsday (Universal) — $4.53M, $2,343 PTA, $4.53 million cume
8. Semi Pro (New Line) — $2.95 million, $1,303 PTA, $29.8 million cume
9. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $2.85 million, $2,357 PTA, $19.1 million cume
10. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $2.24 million, $932 PTA , $65.2 million cume
11. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $2.03 million, $1,257 PTA, $75.6 million cume
12. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $1.91 million, $3,545 PTA, $5.2 million cume
13. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $1.72M, $1,144 PTA, $65.3 million cume
14. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $1.53M, $991 PTA, $55.4 million cume
15. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.17 million, $1,383 PTA, $139.7 million cume
* Penelope (Summit) — $925,000, $1,221 PTA, $8.2 million cume
* Definitely Maybe (Universal) — $680,000, $1,065 PTA, $30.6 million cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $621,000, $1,215 PTA, $73.7 million cume
* NEW Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $515,000, $1,782 PTA, $515,000 cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $430,000, $2,037 PTA, $5.1 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $340,000, $10,303 PTA, $1.1 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $310,000, $914 PTA, $39.3 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $240,000, $5,000 PTA, $1.3 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $95,000, $5,277 PTA, $175,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $90,000, $4,090 PTA, $150,000 cume
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $45,000, $1,500 PTA, $45,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $39,000, $13,000 PTA, $59,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $25,000, $1,000 PTA, $88,000 cume
* NEW Flash Point (Third Rail) — $2,789, $278 PTA, $2,789 cume
* NEW Wetlands Preserved (First Run) — $1,750, $1,750 PTA, $1,750 cume

FRIDAY NIGHT: Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) delivered an elephant-size $13.75 million at America's box offices Friday, and the animated film will finish the weekend with a monstrous $42.62 million. If that number holds, Horton will be the 14th-biggest animated opening in modern box office history.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 ANIMATED OPENINGS
1. Shrek the Third — $121.6 million
2. Shrek 2 — $108 million
3. The Simpsons Movie — $74 million
4. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
5. Finding Nemo — $70.2 million
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $68 million
7. Monsters Inc. — $62.5 million
8. Cars — $60.1 million
9. Toy Story 2 — $57.3 million
10. Shark Tale — $47.6 million
11. Madagascar — $47.2 million
12. Ratatouille — $47 million
13. Ice Age — $46.3 million
14. Horton Hears a Who! — $42.62 million (Estimated)
15. Shrek — $42.3 million

The Jimmy Hayward and Steve Martino-directed Seuss adaptation will be the all-time fourth-biggest opening for a Fox animated film, trailing only The Simpsons Movie and the two Ice Age movies. Even more impressive is that Horton Hears a Who, by Monday morning, will be the all-time No. 4 March opening, behind only last year's 300 and 20th Century Fox's Ice Age movies.

In the No. 2 spot for the weekend is the critically-reviled 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.), which is apparently receiving very bad word-of-mouth. The Roland Emmerich prehistoric spectacle managed $5 million on its second Friday, and it will manage only an estimated $15.5 million for the frame, diving 57 percent from its opening weekend. Disney's College Road Trip will be third for the three-day with only a 40 percent dip on its second weekend. After a $2.1 million Friday, big Saturday and Sunday matinees will drive the Martin Lawrence 'tween road movie to an $8.19 million frame, just shy of $25 million total domestic.

Never Back Down, the new Karate Kid-like release from Summit, sold $2.65 million in tickets on its opening day, and it is headed for a $7.2 million weekend, good for fourth place. Sony's Vantage Point continues to hold well, dipping only 24 percent from last weekend with $1.7 million or so on Friday and a likely $5.78 million in the three-day. The other new wide release, Doomsday from Universal, is a disaster. Despite opening on 1,936 screens, it lurched to just $1.5 million Friday, and it will only reach $4.2 million for the weekend.

The limited specialty releases have met with relative indifference. Michael Haneke's Funny Games (Warner Independent) delivered a meager $632 per screen at 289 locations on Friday, and its weekend PTA will be something in the $2,100 range. Overture's second release, Sleepwalking, starring Nick Stahl, generated only $420 per screen at 30 locations on its opening day. Its three-day Per Theatre Average will be an estimated $1,433 or so. Looking at Friday numbers, Warner Independent's Snow Angels got a nice surge and may win the weekend PTA race with an estimated $14,000-plus per location. Horton Hears A Who (20th Century Fox) and Oscar winner The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) are in a tight race for no. 2.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — $13.75 million, $3,477 PTA, $13.75 million cume
2. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $5 million, $1,466 PTA, $49.8 million cume
3. NEW Never Back Down (Summit) — $2.65 million, $971 PTA, $2.65 million cume
4. College Road Trip (Disney) — $2.1 million, $776 PTA, $18.4 million cume
5. Vantage Point (Sony) — $1.7 million, $616 PTA, $55.5 million cume
6. NEW Doomsday (Universal) — $1.5 million, $775 PTA, $1.5 million cume
7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $1.3 million, $812 PTA, $9.5 million cume
8. Semi Pro (New Line) — $900,000, $396 PTA, $27.7 million cume
9. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $855,000, $705 PTA, $17.1 million cume
10. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $585,000, $364 PTA, $74.2 million cume
11. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $570,000, $237 PTA, $63.6 million cume
12. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $520,000, $965 PTA, $3.8 million cume
13. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $515,000, $342 PTA, $64.1 million cume
14. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $470,000, $304 PTA, $54.3 million cume
15. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $340,000, $402 PTA, $138.9 million cume
* Penelope (Summit) — $265,000, $350 PTA, $7.6 million cume
* Definitely Maybe (Universal) — $215,000, $337 PTA, $30.2 million cume
* NEW Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $185,000, $632 PTA, $185,000 cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $165,000, $323 PTA, $73.3 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $115,000, $545 PTA, $4.8 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $83,000, $245 PTA, $39 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $81,000, $2,455 PTA, $874,000
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $52,000, $1,083 PTA, $1.1 million cume
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $25,000, $1,136 PTA, $85,000 cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $24,000, $1,333 PTA, $105,000
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $12,600, $420 PTA, $12,600 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $11,000, $3,667 PTA, $31,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $7,000, $280 PTA, $70,000 cume
* NEW Wetlands Preserved (First Run) — $1,126, $1,126 PTA, $1,126 cume
* NEW Flash Point (Third Rail) — $820, $82 PTA, $820 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) — 42.62 million, $10,780 PTA, $42.62 million cume
2. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) — $15.5 million, $4,545 PTA, $60.3 million cume
3. College Road Trip (Disney) — $8.19 million, $3,027 PTA, $24.5 million cume
4. NEW Never Back Down (Summit) — $7.2 million, $2,638 PTA, $7.2 million cume
5. Vantage Point (Sony) — $5.78 million, $2,093 PTA, $58.5 million cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) — $4.58 million, $2,841 PTA, $12.7 million cume
7. NEW Doomsday (Universal) — $4.2 million, $2,169 PTA, $4.2 million cume
8. Semi Pro (New Line) — $2.88 million, $1,269 PTA, $29.7 million cume
9. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) — $2.86 million, $2,363 PTA, $19.1 million cume
10. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) — $2.46 million, $1,022 PTA, $65.5 million cume
11. Jumper (20th Century Fox) — $2.01 million, $1,257 PTA, $75.6 million cume
12. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) — $1.87 million, $3,473 PTA, $5.2 million cume
13. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) — $1.72 million, $1,146 PTA, $65.3 million cume
14. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) — $1.45 million, $942 PTA, $55.3 million cume
15. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $1.15 million, $1,366 PTA, $139.7 million cume
* Penelope (Summit) — $930,000, $1,229 PTA, $8.3 million cume
* Definitely Maybe (Universal) — $715,000, $1,121 PTA, $30.7 million cume
* NEW Funny Games (Warner Independent) — $615,000, $2,128  PTA, $615,000 cume
* No Country For Old Men (Miramax) — $600,000, $1,174 PTA, $73.7 million cume
* In Bruges (Focus) — $425,000, $2,014 PTA, $5.1 million cume
* The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) — $345,000, $10,455 PTA, $1.1 million cume
* There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $325,000, $959 PTA, $39.3 million cume
* The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) — $247,000, $5,146 PTA, $1.3 million cume
* Married Life (Sony Classics) — $93,000, $5,167 PTA, $174,000
* Paranoid Park (IFC Films) — $75,000, $3,409 PTA, $135,000 cume
* NEW Sleepwalking (Overture) — $43,000, $1,433 PTA, $43,000 cume
* Snow Angels (Warner Independent) — $43,000, $14,333 PTA, $63,000 cume
* CJ7 (Sony Classics) — $24,000, $960 PTA, $87,000 cume
* NEW Wetlands Preserved (First Run) — $3,828, $3,828 PTA, $3,828 cume
* NEW Flash Point (Third Rail) — $2,870, $287 PTA, $2,870 cume

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Posted at 12:07 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Best words I heard today:

"The other new wide release, DOOMSDAY from Universal, is a disaster. Despite opening on 1,936 screens, it lurched to just $1.5M Friday, and it will only reach $4.2M for the weekend."

Thank you. Thank very much.

Posted by: JackO | March 15, 2008 at 07:30 AM

So wait, a $14 million opening day for a kids movie only translates to $42 million? Shouldn't it be closer to $52 million thanks to matinees?

Posted by: apollokthx | March 15, 2008 at 08:32 AM

Never Back Down in 3rd place!? Who saw that coming? Actually, I saw someone on the boards who did. Much kudos to them.

Posted by: JackO | March 16, 2008 at 01:20 AM

Box office mojo is predicting a weekend PTA victory for Horton, Angels 2nd, Counterfeiters 3rd.

Posted by: aadams | March 16, 2008 at 11:47 AM

Haha. I'm happy all round this weekend. Horton did well. 10,000 B.C. didn't crash as expected, and Never Back Down pulled in some decent dough for a $4 pick.

Posted by: Stev | March 17, 2008 at 02:24 PM

Surprise! Box office mojo says Contempt is number 1 PTA followed by Horton, Snow Angels, Deep Sea 3-D and then... Hannah Montana??

Posted by: matt | March 17, 2008 at 02:56 PM

For Fantasy's points, 5pts for Horton, 4 Angels, 3 Hannah, 2 for counterfeiters, and the upset of the week, another PTA point for 10,000 B.C.

Posted by: aadams | March 17, 2008 at 04:31 PM

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