TIP OF THE WEEK: Forget '10,000 B.C.,' Let's Look Into the Future!
by Mister Informative
Greetings, Moguls! As it turns out, I was both right and wrong about 10,000 B.C. It didn't totally flop, but it did make less than the projected $45 million on opening weekend. So I guess you could say I had at least some semblance of reason (and correct ... ness?), and I can roll with that. It's all about small victories, my friends. Small victories.
But pshaw, who cares about ancient history?! It's way more fun to peer into the future, and this week I'm doing just that. For example, let's fast-forward the same amount of time in the opposite direction: in 14,000 A.D., I suspect that Saw 9839 will be the highest-grossing horror movie of the year. They had to take a few years off in between some of the installments, so that's why the date and the number of sequels don't match up exactly. Also, Sylvester Stallone's cryogenically frozen head (a la Futurama) will be appearing on talk shows all over the country to promote his newest Rambo film. Finally, movies will be equipped with Smell-O-Vision, adding another dimension to the theatergoing experience.
That's WAY far down the line, however, so let's instead take a look at this upcoming summer, which will actually affect your Fantasy Moguls playing. It's only a few months down the road, yes, but I can make it seem further off. Think about it this way — the debut of Iron Man and the kickoff to the summer movie season is over 73,000 minutes away! Now, to business: Here are five big-budget summer releases to be wary of — especially if they're given high price tags in upcoming Fantasy Moguls seasons — as well as five films that, well, frankly, I just can't even believe they were greenlighted. Let's gaze ahead into the future! (Maybe Roland Emmerich can make a movie about THAT. Or does Stargate count for that?)
TREAD WITH CAUTION
In each of the past few summers, the first big blockbuster has come roaring out of the gate on the first weekend in May, while the films released on the following weekend are either fighting for scraps (as Georgia Rule and 28 Weeks Later did last year in the shadow of Spider-Man 3) or get sunk by their own advance hype (as Poseidon was in 2006). I sense a trend, one that I think Speed Racer (May 9) will continue. This is perhaps the one instance of late where nostalgia won't help a film be successful. While Speed Racer looks like it could be visually stunning, being sandwiched between Iron Man and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian means there is just that much more competition for moviegoers' attention. And really, the dialogue might just be so wooden (clichéd, cheesy; choose whichever term suits you best) that it could make watching an entire movie unbearable. Now, I know that such potentially painful-to-watch dialogue aims to capture the spirit of the source material, and that approach can work (Fantastic Four, for example). But I just don't think Speed will win the race against everything else May has to offer.
M. Night Shyamalan wore out his welcome with Disney after The Village, so he went to Warner Bros. to make Lady in the Water, and that didn't turn out so well either. Now he's with 20th Century Fox, and his latest film is The Happening (June 13), in which people start killing themselves for seemingly no reason. If the poster (and IMDb's brief synopsis) is any indication, there's also some sort of natural crisis that poses a threat to humanity. And so, even now, before it's even released, we're probably all wondering — what will the twist be? Could it be that (gasp) everyone was ALREADY DEAD?!?! (Seriously, I don't know if that's it. I read a script review but I really don't remember the important plot points.) In any case, Mr. M.'s track record hasn't been stellar recently, and while The Happening has the potential to break out (complete with creepy Friday the 13th release date!), I find you'll be much better off erring on the side of caution here.
It appears, actually, that June 13 could just be a bad (or unlucky, if you're superstitious) weekend all around. The trailer for The Incredible Hulk is set to debut later this week, but other than that, I really haven't seen any advertising for it whatsoever. Now, that's not necessarily a bad sign, but most other marquee summer releases have SOMETHING going on by now. And though this movie isn't associated with, or a sequel to, Ang Lee's 2003 Hulk, I feel like connections with that film will still inevitably be made. Might it be too soon to "reinvent" this particular wheel? It has good placement, falling nicely between two much larger tentpole releases (Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Wall-E), so the possibility still exists that this could be a sleeper hit of sorts. (Sort of like a Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, filling the gap between Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Ratatouille last year.) A disappointing performance, though, is equally possible. Once I see that trailer I might change my tune, but for now ... be wary of this one.
Although it made a lot of money on DVD, the first Hellboy only pulled in $59 million during its theatrical run. That's not too shabby, but certainly not the mountain of cabbage that usually merits a major summer blockbuster (although to be fair, it came out in April). The next installment IS a summer blockbuster, though, and with estimated production costs of just $72 million, Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Jul. 11) could very well turn a profit while still in theaters. The problem is that it comes out just one week before it will almost surely be devoured by The Dark Knight. This summer isn't as bad as last, but there are certainly some "unnecessary" sequels to be found, and I think this is one of them. Hellboy appeals to a much smaller niche crowd of comic book fans than Batman or Spider-Man or Superman (or Iron Man). It might be positioned like something that can anchor your slate, but I think $100 million is pretty much the ceiling on this one, and you probably want much more than that from a primary choice during the summer season.
Also on the list of unnecessary sequels (for me, at least) is The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Aug. 1). I certainly understand WHY it was made; after The Mummy Returns made $202 million back in 2001, Universal Pictures would have been crazy if they hadn't at least considered it. It's been 7 years, however, since the last installment. And no, time didn't stop Rocky Balboa, or Rambo, or Live Free or Die Hard from being successful, but those flicks all belonged to much more iconic franchises than that of le Mummy. This time around, Brendan Fraser will be dealing with a Chinese (ooh, new and exotic; not Egyptian anymore!) mummy, played by Jet Li. (While Fraser is back, many other cast members are not; for example, Maria Bello has replaced Rachel Weisz.) The first two Mummy films came out in early May of 1999 and 2001. In each of those years, they were the first big films out of the gate, and, in all honesty, that may have helped their profits. This installment, however, sits in the wings until August, where it's much less of a sure thing. It may not be an outright bomb, but it's not a guaranteed smash like The Bourne Ultimatum was last August. But if you think that's iffy ...
SERIOUSLY, WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?!
The only thing The Midnight Meat Train (May 16) has going for it is the giggle factor that comes from the title. (I mean, I can't be the ONLY one who thinks it sounds like a dirty movie.) You might recognize Bradley Cooper from Wedding Crashers and Leslie Bibb from Talladega Nights, but, rest assured, there will be no laughs here. Unless, perhaps, the humor is unintentional, or you're one to laugh at how bad a film is. If you're a fan of author Clive Barker, be honest: Wouldn't it just be better to reread the short story on which this movie is based? We've seen that the trend of gory horror films doesn't translate to profit in every case — and it seems clear to me that this will be another film that splatters the fake blood everywhere and only ends up (groan) in the red. Not only will it fall victim to the "torture porn" curse — which, really, Lionsgate should be able to see coming — there's also the tiny little issue of The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian coming out the same weekend. True, Prince Caspian isn't aiming for the same demographic ... but all the same, this Train won't ever leave the station; it will be left scavenging for scraps (of meat, naturally.)
And speaking of bloody scraps, what in the name of Vacancy is going on here? Did studio execs not already see that slasher/stalker/terrorization films like The Strangers (May 30) don't even work in April, much less in a prime summer release slot? Don't expect it to be much in the way of counterprogramming, either. I mean, yeah, it'll do SOME business, but that's bound to be minimal. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Sex and the City are the two big players here. And really, are Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman (huh?) all that compelling of reasons to go watch? Horror movies rarely cut it during the summer season — last summer, nothing but 1408 made a dent until the hugely frontloaded Halloween, and that came along at the end of August going into September. Bug, Hostel II, I Know Who Killed Me, Captivity — all of them hardly seen. Films like this just get dumped during the summer because while horror isn't the surefire moneymaking genre it once was, if studios release these films during such a busy season, there are probably more people at the cinemas and therefore a higher chance that some might think, "Eh, why not?"
I never realized American Girl dolls were still popular enough to warrant a movie based on them. (ARE they even that popular anymore, or is this maybe coming out a few years too late for the fad? Was there ever a fad? I am, as you might guess, out of tune with what appeals to young girls, mostly because I'm not one of them.) (Yes, I knew about Hannah Montana, but really, nobody could have escaped all the hoopla over that.) Regardless, Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Jun. 20; expansion Jul. 2), despite featuring an Oscar nominee in Abigail Breslin, just doesn't seem all that likely to find traction at the box office. Did New Line really think it was a good idea to make (or continue making) movies based on dolls after seeing Bratz fare so poorly last summer? I suppose that point is moot, since New Line is now defunct, or semi-funct, or just funct up enough that Warner Bros. has taken back the steering wheel. That brings up another question, however: Will Warner Bros. absorb Kit Kittredge into its summer lineup? Will it get pushed back? Or canned altogether? I vote for the latter, because it was never a good idea in the first place. Also because I'm completely creeped out that they've tried to make Abigail Breslin look identical to AnnaSophia Robb for this movie. I'm serious, watch the trailer — it's beyond eerie. I mean, AnnaSophia Robb wasn't available? And Abigail Breslin was?
In the course of one year, Eddie Murphy went from Oscar winner nominee (d'oh!) (Dreamgirls) to Razzie-winner (Norbit). Sadly, it looks like he's continuing down the latter path with Meet Dave (Jul. 11). In the film, Murphy plays a humanoid alien, piloting a spaceship that takes the form of a human. Coincidentally, the particular human form is ... you guessed it, Eddie Murphy. That's right, we have Eddie Murphy playing an alien, who is the pilot of an Eddie Murphy-shaped spaceship. I'm at a loss to explain why other intelligent life would make a human-shaped ship, unless maybe the ship automatically takes the form of the captain. In any case, Murphy's crew of miniature humanoid aliens runs into trouble when their ship becomes smitten with an Earth woman. While Norbit made $95 million, clearly the multiple-roles thing doesn't really work for Eddie Murphy anymore, from a quality standpoint. Perhaps the biggest factor that leads me to predict the demise of Dave, though, is The Dark Knight looming one week later. And the fact that Meet Dave was bumped back to this slot from a less competitive May/early June weekend. I almost think 20th Century Fox pushed it back so that now when it doesn't do very well, they can say, "Well, we did we what we could; our film did have to go up against The Dark Knight, after all ..."
20th Century Fox may have a rough July (except for maybe The X-Files 2); they've also got the audacity to compete directly with The Dark Knight, releasing Space Chimps (Jul. 18) on the same weekend. (Now, when I say audacity, that doesn't mean that I don't think anything can coexist and make good money in the shadow of His Dark-ness. Just that whatever is going to pull that off, it'd have to be something much better than Space Chimps.) First of all, it's a spinoff of a video game, which is an iffy prospect in and of itself, and secondly, while it's animated and is targeting a younger, family-oriented demographic, it'll still have Wall-E to contend with, because man, do those Pixar movies ever have good word of mouth and good legs. Now, Wall-E won't drown Space Chimps out entirely, because family/animated movies often operate independently of one another, but it's still something to be considered. The voice cast for Chimps is nothing to crow about either, but darn it, Andy Samberg is going to make America love him! They may not have liked Hot Rod, but ... well, they probably won't go, ah, bananas for this one either. (I realize this is an obvious pun to make, but it gets the point across: these Chimps are chumps.)
That's all for this week. Start counting down those 73,000 minutes! I know, I know, it seems like an eternity. Until next week, good luck!
Mister Informative thinks The Midnight Meat Train should have a soundtrack that is all covers of "train"-themed songs, such as "Runaway Midnight Meat Train" (like Soul Asylum has better things to do), or "Midnight Meat Virginia Train" (sung by Train, of course), or "Slow Midnight Meat Train" (more royalties for Bob Dylan!), or "Last Midnight Meat Train to Clarksville" (hey, hey, they're the Monkees), or "Leaving on a Midnight Meat Train" (sure, it's "jet plane" in the song, but roll with it), or that one song by Aerosmith, just so they could sing that one line, "They say when Janie was arrested, they found him underneath the Midnight Meat Train" (we could keep this going all day long). Pass your own suggestions along to misterinformative@gmail.com. By the way, you have to admit the Abigail Breslin thing is creepy. Check the trailer out; you'll agree with Mister I.


Don't forget "Midnight Meat Train To Georgia". Woo-woo!
Posted by: lainiediamond | March 11, 2008 at 10:08 AM
How you could you not include "Midnight Meat Train To Georgia"?
Posted by: Stu | March 11, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I can't believe Andy Samberg's making another film.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | March 11, 2008 at 01:29 PM
"Slow Midnight Meat Train To Dawn" by The The would have to be on the soundtrack.
Posted by: leestu | March 11, 2008 at 06:25 PM
Pretty spot on, I'd say. Thing with Incredible Hulk is that: 1) the first one did not receive that great a reception, and 2) unlike Iron Man or Dark Knight, where you can have the lead appear in costume quite easily, Hulk is a CGI creation, and the last time Universal showed unfinished CGI footage of Hulk, it did not turn out well.
As for Hellboy II, I'm personally kind of glad they made a sequel as it gives Guillermo Del Toro another chance to show his craftmanship to a larger audience before he tackles The Hobbit. Plus, I've heard that there will be a lot of Pan's Labyrinth influences, so it should at least be interesting. I could see it making 125-150M at most domestically.
Posted by: corran horn | March 12, 2008 at 06:14 AM
Slight correction: Eddie Murphy was an Oscar NOMINEE for Dreamgirls, but he lost out to Alan Arkin--most likely b/c of Norbit.
Posted by: corran horn | March 12, 2008 at 06:22 AM
I actually think Kit Kittridge will make money. The American Girl series is still pretty popular, Abigail Breslin was a recent Oscar nominee and there won't be too many films for young girls this summer. Yes Nancy Drew was a flop I believe that was because it was a reboot of the series and because Emma Roberts was an unproven box office draw. With Kit, the film is faithful to the series and Breslin is a more likely draw than Roberts.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | March 12, 2008 at 07:07 AM
Thanks for the correction. Guess I need to check my facts a little better!
Posted by: Mr. Informative | March 12, 2008 at 09:24 AM
More songs for the soundtrack:
"Take the A Midnight Meat Train" (Duke Ellington)
"Night Midnight Meat Train" (Lionel Richie)
"Big Midnight Meat Train Runnin' " (The Doobie Brothers)
"Big Midnight Meat Train from Memphis" (Credence Clearwater Revival)
"Downtown Midnight Meat Train" (Mary Chapin Carpenter or Rod Stewart)
"Zion Midnight Meat Train" (Bob Marley)
Posted by: Banjo the Woodchuck | March 12, 2008 at 10:15 AM
The American girl dolls actually have succsful historical-fiction book tie-ins. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kit movie finds some niche audience among among female-dominated family groups. I hope they didn't spend much on it, because it could probably make back 30 mil handily and have decent DVD run.
Posted by: Bentley | March 16, 2008 at 07:07 PM