Iron Man (April 30): The Man of Ferrous Metals is not worth it for $55 in Box Office, and I wouldn't exactly recommend using $47 to procure his services in Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues either. It's possible to still create a competitive slate around that $47 anchor, but it requires a lot of reliance on sleeper picks, or other cheap films outperforming their expectations. It's definitely safer to divvy up your funds a bit more. (If you didn't choose 10,000 B.C. or Horton Hears a Who!, then I suppose you're almost forced to jump on the Iron Man bandwagon.) Fantasy Moguls predicts $200 million, and Iron Man could very well reach that level, especially since it's the first blockbuster out of the gate. We all saw how much that helped Spider-Man 3 last summer. Although 14 Top 5 points isn't entirely out of the question, 12 PTA points might be stretching it, I think, especially since the screen count will undoubtedly be huge, above 3,500 for sure. Iron Man is also perhaps a lesser-known superhero ...although with its first-to-market status and the advertising investment that Paramount has already made, this movie shouldn't have trouble gaining widespread appeal. It's just that, in such a crowded May, even a very successful theatrical run still doesn't warrant spending that much cash from your studio's allotment. At the very least, the caveat is that spending so much money on one film just leaves you hamstrung to make other changes should you want to alter your picks later.

Speed Racer (May 9): If any of the May Monsters flops, this will be the one that does. It doesn't deserve even a lick of consideration from you, either in Box Office ($57) or in Ultimate ($46) leagues. It is definitely not worth either of its enormous price tags. Each of the past two years, the second May weekend has featured a bit of a lull, after the inevitable hugeness of the first summer blockbuster, so there's one potential trap already. I have no doubt that Speed Racer will be visually spectacular, but you can't carry a movie on that alone. (Although, now that I think about it, maybe Warner Bros. knows what they're doing here; after all, 300 did pretty well for itself, and it too was more about visuals — and adrenaline — than anything else.) The dialogue is straight out of the Saturday-morning-cartoon cheesiness of the original show (forgive me if it didn't air on Saturdays; I never watched it as a child — I preferred real cars, Hot Wheels style), so the target is clearly a more family-friendly audience ... but I just have a hunch that it won't connect. $220 million is far too optimistic, and the 11 point PTA estimate is probably too high as well, for the same large-screen-count reason. (By the way, can Susan Sarandon maybe take a break from playing "Mom" for a while? Speed Racer, Mr. Woodcock, Enchanted, Elizabethtown, Shall We Dance, Stepmom ... heck, even back to Little Women.)

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16): Personally, I'm not as stoked for this movie as some. I only ever read The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe from the Narnia series, but, all the same, this is an established franchise and a solid attraction for families. Still, spending half of your funds on this film would not be a good idea. It's a "mere pittance" at $48 in Ultimate leagues, but if you're going to spend that much at all, better to go with Iron Man, since it has two extra weeks of eligibility in the season. The last Narnia film opened with $65 million; this one could certainly equal that. Even if doesn't open that high, it will have excellent legs. After all, rarely is it a good idea to bet against Disney: Hannah Montana, Step Up 2 the Streets, Enchanted, The Game Plan and even, to a lesser extent, College Road Trip were all surprise successes just in the last eight months. So think of what a film everyone already knows will be big can do. But again, the economy of choosing something so expensive when a few smaller picks can come close to the same totals is just not smart. It's tempting, because great performance is virtually guaranteed ... but mortgaging that much of your cash for just one movie will leave you hung out to dry.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 22): If you're going to pick any of the May Monsters, make it this one. The price is far reduced from the level of the other three —  only $30 in Ultimate and $34 in Box Office. (That'd leave you a whopping $20 or so to spare!) Just like with the rest of May's tentpole offerings, good numbers are guaranteed. I say 9 Top 5 points minimum, and probably a handful of PTA as well. The difference is, because Kingdom comes with only two weeks to play before the season ends, the price tag is reduced to account for the cutoff. All the same, however, that still leaves you room to, well, not have to rely on The Strangers and Pathology combined. (You also won't have to shudder about picking Shutter ... too obvious of a pun?) Don't fret about the cutoff, either; after two weekends last summer (including the Memorial Day weekend that Indiana Jones will also benefit from), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End had $217 million (more than two-thirds of its eventual total) in the bank. Still worried? You shouldn't be.

I'd also like to make mention of some potential bargains at the end of April. Both films have major studio backing (Universal for one, 20th Century Fox the other) and will very likely open in over 2,000 theaters. They've also got over a month to earn before the current season ends, and yet ... they can be found in the bargain basement of either league type. What gives? Is it is a mistake on the part of the Fantasy Moguls pricing oracles? Or do they have some inside knowledge (or even just suspicion) that the rest of us aren't privy to?

Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Apr. 18; $2 Ultimate, $4 Box Office) is one such film. It already has some positive buzz and also boasts the touch of Judd "Midas" Apatow as a producer. Jason Segel is the star, but TV hottie Kristen Bell has the title role and, naturally enough, there are a bunch of the Apatow regulars along for the ride: Jonah Hill, Paul Rudd, Kristen Wiig. So ... why such a low price tag? To be honest, I think the low pricing stems from the looming specter of Iron Man just two weeks later. But Sarah Marshall is poised to take the top spot on its opening weekend (do you really think Prom Night is going to spend two weeks at number one?), and it will more than likely even stay in the Top 5 after Iron Man hits theaters. Let's call 8 Top 5 points a safe estimate. It should also maintain an IMDb rating no worse than 6.0. Yes, April movies generally aren't that great, or have been unceremoniously dumped there, but even so, you can still reap the (proportionally smaller) benefits. This is EASILY the best $2 Ultimate pick, and probably the safest under-$5 choice in Box Office leagues as well. How can you pass that up?

You may remember that, way back in December, I highlighted five films to watch out for in March and April, including something called The List. Well, it's now called Deception (Apr. 25; $2 Ultimate, $5 Box Office), and I still think it's one you should watch out for. If anything, it may be suffering from a case of mistaken identity, since it was called The Tourist before being retitled The List. Through all the changes, however, the stars (the certainly respectable Ewan McGregor and Hugh Jackman) and the juicy, highly marketable plot points (a mysterious sex club, a woman's disappearance, and a multimillion dollar heist) have stayed the same. Yes, Deception won't be uncovered until the last weekend before the summer blockbusters go roaring out of the starting blocks, and that, plus the multiple name changes, may be the reason for the cheap pricing. Perhaps the Fantasy Moguls price-setters think it indicates a lack of confidence in the film, on the part of the studio? While that may be true, there's still enough potential there to make it worth taking a chance on. It may not take the top spot on its opening weekend, with Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo also in the mix, but I think it can scrape its way into the Top 5 and possibly bring home a good amount of money, especially relative to price. (Perhaps one comparable is Untraceable, which opened to $11 million this year even in the similarly dead month of January; or Mr. Brooks, another smaller thriller that managed a decent $27 million over a month of competing with big summer blockbusters last summer.)

That's all for this week; remember, don't let temptation sucker you into picking flicks with huge price tags. (Most of this year's May Monsters truly are of the scary variety, it would seem ... cost-wise, anyway.) Until next time, good luck!

Mister Informative has never been to a mysterious sex club. Which is really all there is to say about that topic. At least now you know that the Ewan McGregor character in Deception wasn't inspired by actual events ... or at least not in the life of Mister I. Tell him which movies are not based on your life at  misterinformative@gmail.com.