March 7-9

Stud: The PTA race this weekend will be a close one, but I give the advantage to Gus van Sant's Paranoid Park. Its screen count is identical to that of Snow Angels, arguably the other PTA frontrunner — both films are opening on just two screens. Originally Paranoid Park was planned for six locations; it has since been dropped to two, but I don't think that means distributor IFC is worried that seats won't be filled. In fact, they had success with their last release on only two screens: The Duchess of Langeais, which has earned 9 PTA points thus far. I do think that Snow Angels could end up pulling out the weekend victory, but Paranoid Park should do no worse than second place atop the PTA leaderboard — and a tradeoff of one fewer PTA point but $5-$7 to spare (by not putting Snow Angels on your slate) is one I would take any day. It is, after all, fairly likely that one of your remaining wide release films will pick up a PTA point or two and make up for it.

Dud: Alright, somebody's gotta say it. There always has to be that one dissenter, right? Perhaps it's going out on a limb, and I very well may be proven wrong in a matter of days, but despite the failure of Semi-Pro opening the door for great success, I just don't think 10,000 B.C. can capitalize. I know that director Roland Emmerich never does things on a small scale (The Day After Tomorrow, Godzilla, Independence Day), and that Box Office Report forecasts an opening weekend of $45 million. But, let's remember, some sources also had Semi-Pro opening above $40 million. And, on top of that, no movie has been truly big this year. The hype and raised expectations have invariably exceeded the performance of virtually every potential "blockbuster" thus far, and I see 10,000 B.C. as a continuation of that streak. It should still do moderately well, but the hype has kicked into overdrive since word surfaced of Semi-Pro's awful $5 million Friday. And as we've seen, buying into the hype can lead to disappointment.

Wild Card: College Road Trip. Martin Lawrence is officially back on the map after Wild Hogs and Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Rebound and Big Momma's House 2 almost ruined it for him, although BMH2 did open at $27 million on the way to a sturdy, if unspectacular, $70 million haul). And it's rarely a bad idea to bet on Disney, especially when the film in question is a family comedy. On the other hand, while I knew that The Game Plan would be a hit for the same reason, College Road Trip just looks a little more questionable to me, like it's much less of a sure thing. I still think it'll have some success, but I don't think it can reach the heights of The Game Plan or even the last Disney release, Step Up 2 the Streets. Its price tag isn't terribly high, and it should be good for 4 Top 5 points and perhaps one or two PTA points this week. In that sense, it's a solid investment. But — and this is why it's only a Wild Card — be wary of a potentially low IMDb score for Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues. After all, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins is sitting at 2.6 right now, and the squeaky clean Disney approach may also turn off many IMDb voters. (The Game Plan managed a respectable 6.1, though, so hold out hope!)

March 14-16

Stud: Horton Hears a Who. Ads are everywhere — even on Comedy Central at 11 p.m., clearly a time when very few children would be watching (although parents might be). Much is made of the voice cast, but as I've talked about before with Jerry Seinfeld and Mike Myers, that's really not a factor for kids. It could, however, have some significance for older demographics. Regardless, generations of children grew up with books written by Dr. Seuss — even all the way through high school graduation with "Oh, the Places You'll Go!" Horton is known by kids, by parents, by teachers  — who didn't read this thing, or hear it read, in school at some point? So the awareness is certainly there. And it's got two other important things going for it: a valuable message — "A person is a person, no matter how small!" — and a family-friendly G rating. Given all that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horton break into the top 5 March opening weekends of all time. It would likely have to open above $40 million to do so, but Robots — which is from the same animation studio as Horton, coincidentally — opened with $36 million in mid-March three years ago, without any of the bibliographical pluses that Horton has. So, I think a $40 million opening weekend is definitely possible.

Dud: Flash Point. This film just showed up on the list of available movies, but it's probably just as well that it hasn't been included before now. Going up against Horton, Funny Games and Sleepwalking, as well as holdovers Paranoid Park, Snow Angels and CJ7, means that there probably won't be room for this Asian martial arts film among the PTA leaders during its opening weekend. It does carry a very respectable 6.9 IMDb score, but that's about the only benefit you'll get from putting it on your roster. The distributor is the virtually unknown Third Rail Releasing, a company that has only ever distributed one other film, George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (and even then, they didn't shoulder the load; they had the help of the Weinstein Company). That's another sign that perhaps you should let Flash Point pass you by. If it's PTA you're after, use the $5 that Flash Point would cost you to nab The Flight of the Red Balloon or Under the Same Moon instead. Or, if you'd rather get a bit more box office revenue and potentially some top 5 points, snag The Bank Job or Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

Wild Card: DOOMSDAY. (Why must it be in all caps? Does it mean that the doom is that much more ominous and impending?) This looks re-hashed, like Resident Evil meets 28 Days Later meets any other zombie flick/movie about infected people. All the same, it could do well, but I just feel it's risky. Personally, I'd think that $10 in Ultimate leagues would be better spent on Drillbit Taylor or College Road Trip. Neither of those movies is a guaranteed smash either, I like their chances better than those of DOOMSDAY. ($2 in Box Office leagues, however, is a much better deal.) Director Neil Marshall's last film, The Descent, managed a 7.4 IMDb score, but I doubt that DOOMSDAY will match that because of its almost completely recycled premise. (OK, there are a few changes, but c'mon — a deadly virus, a quarantine, and people having to come back in from the outside? Those are clearly things we've seen before.) Also, keep in mind that The Descent made only $13 million; while DOOMSDAY should fare a mite better than that, it's still gory action/horror, and as we've seen over the past year, that doesn't automatically translate to box office success anymore.

March 21-23

Stud: There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Tyler Perry releasing a film every winter. (Alright, so I may be exaggerating a tiny bit here, but there is definitely a pattern.) First came Diary of a Mad Black Woman, then Madea's Family Reunion, then Daddy's Little Girls. This year, it's Meet the Browns, and though the IMDb score will probably be on the low end of the continuum, by now that's something you can predict and plan for with Perry. Deal with it accordingly, knowing that if you pick Meet the Browns for its great box office potential, you may suffer in the IMDb category. The box office take should fall right in line with Why Did I Get Married? ($55 million), although I do think that Meet the Browns has a higher ceiling; it could top $60 million, possibly even $70 million. In Box Office leagues, this is almost a must-have. It will assuredly out-gross Semi-Pro, and for half the price!

Dud: Shutter. Can we just be done with this fad, please? Were One Missed Call and The Eye not enough? (And that's just this year.) We need to keep re-making Asian (in this case, Thai) horror films? We can't come up with our own? I mean, the formula is pretty easy: take creepy child, add technology of some sort (VHS tape, cell phone, now camera), stir. And as Emeril would say, bam. Horror movie. Shutter has the wondrous task of following in Horton the elephant's giant footsteps, and it also must meet (and go up against) Tyler Perry's Browns on its opening weekend. (Unfortunately, those Browns don't live in Cleveland, or else that would be a potential pun I would simply have to exploit.) Not to mention, DOOMSDAY will also be drawing away the horror crowd. So Shutter will be stuck figuratively scavenging for scraps, and it should also be blessed with a very low IMDb score; One Missed Call currently resides at No. 100 on IMDb's bottom 100. I'd definitely avoid this one.

Wild Card: Drillbit Taylor. Keep an eye out for it, because it has been anointed with the touch of current Hollywood golden-boy Judd Apatow. Be cautious, because Walk Hard showed that Apatow doesn't always make smash hits. And am I the only one who thinks that Drillbit Taylor looks watered down and tame as compared to everything else that makes Apatow's productions funny? To be fair, it still will be the first comedy to hit the market since Semi-Pro, and that plus the more box-office friendly PG-13 rating may mean that Drillbit can do what Jackie Moon could not (no, not wrestle a bear — be successful). Many films so far this year have succeeded in no small part due to their marketing — Jumper and Vantage Point come to mind. I think the same thing could happen with Drillbit Taylor; Paramount is making sure to advertise the fact that their film is "from the guys who brought you Knocked Up and Superbad," so they may pull in some viewers who might not otherwise be interested just by making that association. Drillbit Taylor is by no means a sure thing, but given its price tag ($10 Ultimate, $9 Box Office), I think it's worth taking a chance on.

March 28-30

Stud: 21. I'm betting that this one will be another beneficiary of successful marketing. You might even say that I'm, har, gambling on it. The cast (except for Kevin Spacey and Laurence Fishburne) isn't necessarily full of the biggest names, but it's the gambling, the Vegas atmosphere, and the heist of sorts, the card counting, that is the draw here. (Also, I get the feeling that Samuel L. Jackson was too busy filming Jumper, else he would've been playing the tough interrogator that Fishburne portrays. Not that Fishburne won't be equally effective in the role; I'm just typecasting a bit.) Keeping the original March 21 release date would've been a nifty tie-in, but moving back a week provided a little distance from Horton and Tyler Perry. I think it also strengthens 21's box office potential, especially on a considerably weaker opening weekend. The $23 million that FM projects is, in my opinion, a little low; I see it perhaps even doubling that by the time its theatrical run is done.

Dud: Stop-Loss. Iraq War-themed movies fail. Even when they aren't directly involved in the current state of affairs in the Middle East (i.e. Rendition or Grace is Gone), they have fared poorly over the past year. Lions for Lambs had the unfortunate circumstance of dealing directly with war in Afghanistan, and it, too, took a nosedive at the box office. Stop-Loss, about soldiers who have returned home from Iraq and yet are recalled to active duty, follows that same blueprint. If audiences want to watch political commentary or be absorbed into some drama or personal story involving Iraq, all they need to do is turn on the television and watch any news channel — primary results, debate recaps, candidate interviews, etc. People go to the movies to escape, to be entertained — not to see something on the big screen that they see regularly at home. As compelling as Stop-Loss might be, I just think it will struggle to find a foothold given its very current (and perhaps poignant, for some) subject matter.

Wild Card: Superhero Movie. To be fair, this spoof is from the Scary Movie branch of the parody pic family tree, with David Zucker (Airplane!) and Leslie Nielsen. That's most emphatically NOT the Jason Friedberg/Aaron Seltzer/Epic Movie branch. Generally, the Scary Movie spoofs have been of better quality, and so that's why I think Superhero Movie could perform surprisingly well. On the other hand, though, the fact that the title (Generic Subject) Movie bears so much resemblance to the utter piles of crap that have infested theaters everywhere over the past three years might have the effect of making people go, "WHAT?! Another one?" Still, Scary Movie 4 opened to $40 million en route to $90 million in 2006, and, given the proliferation of superhero movies in the past few years, you could say that the genre is ripe for parody. Maybe this superhero spoof could pull down, say, a $20-25 million opening weekend. Again, though, (and this seems to be a perpetual danger, doesn't it?) beware of a possible low IMDb score. I think it'll be closer to the 5 range (Scary Movie 4 is at 5.2), but spoof movies generally don't score very well in that category.

That's all for March's offerings. Next week, I'll take another look ahead to summer, singling out five big-budget summer flicks to tread carefully around, as well as five head-scratchers (as in, I can't believe these were even made!) Until then, good luck!

MISTER INFORMATIVE thinks maybe you'll take his advice more seriously if he starts doing the DOOMSDAY thing. How's it working so far? Let him know at MISTERINFORMATIVE@gmail.com.