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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

April 30, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW SPECIAL EDITION: Lucky 13 or Winners For Every Single Weekend of The May-July Fantasy Moguls Game

by Shrykespeare

Hello all, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, the place to come to alleviate some of the confusion you must feel when trying to pick the strongest possible lineup for your summer slates. Yes, that's right, I said summer! SUMMER! Hip hip hooray! Nice nice! Ya-boo! Phillips is a German and he have my pen! (BONG!) "Start again ..."

Hello all, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, where Monty Python references tend to fall from the sky like so many raindrops. Whether you are purchasing mass quantities of electric fans, installing solar panels on your roof, or stocking that tiny hidden fridge in your garage with your favorite alcoholic beverage, I bid you welcome. Summer's here, and you know what that means! "The time is right for dancing in the street?" Well, that too, but also, it heralds the clarion call for the opening of the funnest, slam-bangiest, altogether pizzazziest films that are likely to hit theaters this year.

And because this is such a special week, I will be doing something a little different. Much like I (and the other Fantasy Moguls columnists) did last winter, I will be breaking down the May-July season week-by-week, highlighting what I believe will be the Top 5 and PTA winners of each of the 13 weeks therein. Keep in mind before I begin, this is just my opinion, which is formed from decades of moviegoing, 18 months of game playing, a year of column-writing and a lifetime of pulling random stuff out of my ... erm, ear. (Grin.) The May-July leagues are now forming, so get in quickly. If you want to use this as a template, feel free, but be warned: your mileage may vary. On we go!

May 2-4 — Well, duh. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to know what's going to be No. 1 on this weekend. I predict that Iron Man, which will probably bow in about 4,000 screens, will open with around $70 million. The other major release, Made of Honor, should easily bow at No. 2 with around $18-20 million, with favorable reviews and its shiny new PG-13 rating. In PTA, however, it's a slightly tougher call. Iron Man could easily top, but so could highly acclaimed arthouse flicks Redbelt, Son of Rambow or perhaps even Mister Lonely. I really like the look of Rambow, but I gotta believe Iron Man will top the charts in this category as well.

May 9-11 — I've heard so many varied opinions about the prospects of Speed Racer that it's not even funny. Some are predicting a huge opening, some are predicting that it won't even beat What Happens in Vegas. Sigh. I'm going to stick to my prediction from last week, however, and say that it will open with around $45 million, just barely ahead of Iron Man in its second week. Strong buzz could very well push Vegas into the $25 million opening weekend range, if Racer tanks as badly as some think it will. For PTA? It's a crapshoot. It could be Racer, it could be any of the limited releases from the previous week. It probably will NOT be Noise, the only limited release this week. I'll take a flyer and go with Son of Rambow, because it will probably expand this week and it just looks too adorable to pass up.

May 16-18 — Another no-brainer. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian will smoke its competitors this week. Iron Man will be cooling off a little, and Speed Racer will drop like a stone. Look for the further adventures of the Pevensie kids to bring in around $80-$90 million in its first three days. It could also easily be the PTA champ this week, but I'm going to bank on the positive things I've heard about the Scandinavian film Reprise and pick it to nudge Narnia in that category.

May 23-25 — Yet another easy one. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, with the added benefit of its Thursday opening, will post the largest opening weekend of the year, I'd say around $130 million over the four-day weekend. Narnia will remain respectable with a further $40 million or so, and Iron Man will probably still be in the Top 5 for the last time. I have to pick Indiana Jones to win the PTA crown as well. How can I not? However, The Edge of Heaven could surprise, given that it's only scheduled to open in one theater (on Weds., May 21).

May 30-June 1 — For the first time this summer, there will be a repeat winner at No. 1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will probably suffer no more than a 40 percent drop in its second weekend, but that's still about $70 million, which will be more than enough to outdistance Sex and the City: The Movie, which I figure will open with around $30 million, just ahead of Narnia in its third week. PTA is a toughie to pick this week, and I am not impressed by the trailers for either Stuck or Savage Grace, so I will pick The Foot Fist Way because it looks funny in that Will Ferrell-slapsticky way.

June 6-8 — If it's summer, there must be DeamWorks. Kung Fu Panda will probably not even do two-thirds of the business that Shrek the Third did last summer, but it will be more than enough to win the weekend. I predict that the kids will show up in droves, to the tune of about $65 million. Likewise, the Adam Sandler throng will come out to support his latest summer comedy, You Don't Mess With The Zohan, which I figure will pull in about $40 million, just ahead of Indiana Jones in its third week. For PTA, I have to go with Panda as well. Mongol looks impressive given its Best Foreign Film nomination, but I just saw a trailer for it this past weekend, so I'm thinking its release will be too wide to garner much PTA.

June 13-15 — Ooh, toughie. Which will win out, the big cartoon film of the summer or the second Marvel-comic film of the summer? Given that The Incredible Hulk looks about as unimpressive as I've seen a Marvel film be, I'll give the nod to Kung Fu Panda again. The comic-geek crowd will show up to see if this version of the big green guy will eclipse Ang Lee's version, but that won't be enough to win. And as for The Happening, I'd be surprised if it finished higher than 4th. PTA for this weekend is anybody's guess ... there are no limited-release films on Fantasy Moguls's docket scheduled for this weekend, so it's a toss-up between Panda and Hulk.

June 20-22 — Steve Carell will take his next step to being the No. 1 comic actor in America by scoring big with Get Smart, which I'm guessing will pull in about $50 million in its first three days. The trailer looks hilarious, and I don't think there will be much Evan Almighty backlash. Across the street, look for Mike Myers fans to give The Love Guru enough support to grab No. 2. As for PTA, it's hard to go against Religulous, the anti-religion documentary featuring political commentator Bill Maher.

June 27-29 — Ah, yes. If it's summer, it must also be Pixar! Ratatouille opened very well last summer, but I fully expect WALL-E to do even better. In fact, I think it may score nine digits in its first three days. It may tail off a little bit in the weeks following, but look for the story about a cute little lonely robot in the future to stay in theaters for a very long time. There's no doubt in my mind that WALL-E will win the PTA crown as well.

July 4-6 — Well, if there's one thing in Hollywood with as good a track record as Pixar, it's Will Smith, and wouldn't'cha know, this summer we get them opening only five days apart. And despite the undeniable staying power of the former, I have to believe that, until Big Willy's streak of 11 consecutive blockbusters comes to a screeching halt, it would be unwise to bet against him, which is why Hancock will win the 4th of July weekend. It could easily win the PTA crown as well, but I'm going to put my nickel on  The Wackness just because it sounds cool.

July 11-13 — A few years ago, the original Hellboy made a mild splash in theaters, finding a fairly significant following on DVD. Can the sequel, Hellboy 2: The Golden Army defeat a super-powered Will Smith and Pixar's latest masterpiece? Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think it can. The trailer looks mega-cool, and I think it can pull in $45 on its opening weekend. And as for the egregiously stupid-looking Eddie Murphy sci-fi/comedy Meet Dave, I think it'll be lucky to get more than one Top 5 point. No arthouse releases this week (as of now), so I'll go with HBII there as well.

July 18-20 — Probably the easiest pick of the bunch. Ever since Batman Begins reinvigorated that particular franchise, fans of all ages have been hugely anticipating the sequel. And with the supposedly superlative, outstanding, anti-Nicholson performance of the Joker that will turn out to be Heath Ledger's swan song, look for The Dark Knight to have the largest three-day opening of the summer. I predict at least $120 million for the first three days, and it will simply OWN the Top 5 for at least a month. Musical offering Mamma Mia! will vie with HBII for the No. 2 spot, and I doubt that Space Chumps, er, I mean Chimps, will even crack the Top 5. In PTA, look for the Caped Crusader to hold sway.

July 25-27 — A year ago, I would probably have picked a comedy featuring the reuniting of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly to challenge Nolan's latest for No. 1. However, after the severe failures of both Semi-Pro and Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, I think Step Brothers will finish No. 2 at best on its opening weekend, with The Dark Knight still far outclassing its opponents. The X-Files: I Want to Believe will vie with HBII for the No. 3 spot. As far as PTA goes, I've heard good things about the documentary American Teen, but based on the trailer alone, I'll give the nod to the quirkly-looking Luke Wilson vehicle Henry Poole is Here.

It would seem that I have some room for a few more paragraphs, so I will now take this opportunity to announce that as of this week, I am going to start taking entries for the 2008 Super Leagues Second Half Half-Year tournaments. There will be two of them, one for Ultimate and one for Box Office, and they will work exactly like the First Half Half-Year tournaments did. I know that those tournaments are not even over yet; in fact, the fifth and final round will be starting this Friday! However, THIS pair of tournaments is slated to go as follows:

Round One: June-August
Round Two: July-September
Round Three: August-October
Round Four: September-November
Round Five: October-December

However many people end up playing in these leagues, 20 percent of that total is the number of players that will be cut at the conclusion of each round. Immunity Markers will be given to the Top 5 percent in each round. If you need any further explanation of the rules, feel free to e-mail me or go on the Message Boards.

In order to sign up, you need only do one of two things: send me an e-mail, stating which of the two tournaments you want to be in (Ultimate, Box Office, or both). That way, I have YOUR e-mail address, to which I can send the league passwords when the tournament starts. Or, you can simply sign up on the Message Board thread entitled "Super League Second Half Half-Year Signup", if you are a player that has already been a participant of the Super Leagues and whose e-mail address I already possess.

Seventy-five people entered the First Half Ultimate tournament, and 63 entered the First Half Box Office. I would love to get those numbers up to around 100 this time if possible. So, whether you are currently going strong in all the ongoing tournaments, whether you are a player who has been eliminated from contention and want a shot a some redemption, or whether you are an interested newbie who missed out on participating the first time around, I can assure you that ALL ARE WELCOME. Just make sure that you have the patience to be in for the long haul, and are willing to be available for the seven-month duration of the tournament before you commit. Thank you all in advance!

Well, that's all I have for you this week (and that should be enough, shouldn't it?!). Please return next week when I will be returning to my usual format, by going in-depth about two more of the May giants, possibly the two biggest fun-for-the-whole-family action/adventures of the entire summer: first, coming on May 16, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, featuring the return of director Andrew Adamson and the four young actors playing the Pevensie siblings for the second time, with everyone going back to the magical and mystical realm more than a millennium after their first visit; and, coming on May 22, the return of the most famous archaeologist in film history, a sequel that people have been clamoring for for nearly (wow) two decades, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, reuniting Steven Spielberg, Harrison Ford and his battered bullwhip and fedora for what will probably be their last go-round.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare always looks on the bright side of life. Because, if life seems jolly rotten, then there's something you've forgotten. Tell him your own philosophy for better living at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Comments

Stev

Awesome article. I firmly agree with everything except "The Happening". I think the trailer's pretty suspenseful and it'll open well...I think. :)

Posted by: Stev | April 30, 2008 at 02:08 PM

Matthew Martin

American Teen and Henry Poole Is Here have been reported as opening wide.

Meanwhile, don't count out Journey To The Center Of Earth 3-D. It could take Number Two on opening weekend against tough competition (Wall-E, Hellboy, Hancock and Meet Dave).

The Foot Fist Way's been on the shelf for two years and it sounds like Paramount's dumping it. It's been on the shelf for so long that Danny McBride's shown up in other projects since this one (of which this was I believe his debut).

And I think your Get Smart and Hellboy 2 predictions are too high. Get Smart should take in $25 million against tough competition. And it probably won't be Number One. Hellboy II won't take in $45 million on opening weekend. One reason is tough competition and another is the original opened to about $20 million and Pan's Labyrinth made about $38 million total. Plus, Hellboy is still more of a cult franchise than a big (like Batman or Iron Man) franchise.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | April 30, 2008 at 02:21 PM

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