BARD'S EYE VIEW: More Sure Things of Summer and a Weekend with Al, Jackie, 'Veronica' and the Kid from 'Heroes'
by Shrykespeare
Hello once again, and welcome to the latest installment of Bard's Eye View, the place to come for the lowdown on the best, the worst, and the undeniably "meh" of this spring's upcoming roster of films. Whether you are celebrating your survival in the just-completed first round of the first-ever Super League — or, better yet, whooping it up at a hard-earned Immunity Marker — or whether you are crying into your beer at your early exit, I bid you welcome. I told you people it was going to be exciting, didn't I? Well, it's interesting to note that some of the "Regulars," some of the most practiced Moguls around, were unable to make the cut in one or more of the tournaments ... so that tells you just how fierce this competition is. Not me, of course. I rule. (Wink.)
In addition to four films coming out on April 18, I will also be continuing my series of the biggest (or, in this case, the second-biggest) tier of potential smashes to be coming out this summer. We've got a full lineup, so I won't be mincing my words. (Everyone: "Yeah, right ...")
We'll start with 88 Minutes, a psychological Phone Booth-esque thriller starring wily film veteran Al Pacino as Dr. Jack Gramm, a successful forensic psychiatrist who specializes in testifying in court against murderers. When one particular alleged murderer, Jon Forster (Neal McDonough) is sentenced to death, he publicly accuses Jack of witness tampering and corruption. On the eve of Forster's execution, Jack receives a phone call telling him that he has 88 minutes to live (hence the title), and Jack must figure out who's threatening him while a copycat killer is simultaneously killing off the female witnesses that he convinced to testify.
Directed by Jon Avnet, who helmed Fried Green Tomatoes and Red Corner as well as the upcoming Robert De Niro/Pacino crime thriller Righteous Kill, this film certainly looks exciting enough to make a decent-sized splash at the Box Office. Co-starring Alicia Witt, Leelee Sobieski, Amy Brenneman and William Forsythe, it seems, on its surface, to be a taut, tense thrill-ride, and the gravitas that Pacino possesses will no doubt bring in plenty of paying customers.
The only thing that worries me, frankly, is its placement. With only two weeks until the summer season starts, that leaves it only a very short window to make its bones before it gets washed away by the tidal wave of blockbusters. It looks like a film better suited for, say, September or October. I put it in the same realm as last year's Fracture, a similarly tense thriller with a similarly huge lead actor in Anthony Hopkins. An April release, however, didn't do that film any favors, and it hugely underwhelmed with only $39 million in total receipts.
I find it hard to believe that 88 Minutes will do much better, frankly. Of course, that doesn't mean it's completely undesirable. With only a handful of mid-range releases coming the week of and the week after its release, it could pull in as many as seven or eight Top 5 points, and PTA points are also possible. I predict a rating in the mid-6 range. I'm not sure I'd fork over a full $14 (in Ultimate) for all that, but I'd certainly consider it. And for only a five-spot in Box Office, I'd say snap it up. Even if it only pulls in $25 million (as Fantasy Moguls predicts), that's still a ratio of $5 million per dollar spent, and that is a number that could very well end up winning your league.
When I heard that Jackie Chan and Jet Li, probably the two biggest Asian-born martial-arts actors in the entire world, were finally going to be in a film together, I was ecstatic — and I'm sure I wasn't the only one. That was quite a few months ago, however, and I've since had time to calm down a little bit and truly assess the possibilities for Forbidden Kingdom, a film that could, well, do just about anything. Truly, this is as hard a film to gauge as there is. With two such huge stars in a decent-looking historical House of Flying Daggers-esque film, with cool effects and a modern-day American kid thrown in? Well, that sounds like a recipe for success, but when Li himself came forward and said that he was dissatisfied with the finished product, I began to grow wary.
The story: A kung fu-obsessed teen named Jason (Sky High star Michael Angarano) happens upon an ancient sword, whereupon he is magically transported to ancient China. There, he joins up with a band of warriors, led by Lu Yan (Chan), and joins them in their quest to free the Monkey King (Li). Sounds like fun, but after the myriad of Crouching Tiger-like mystical martial-arts period pieces there have been since the turn of the millennium, one wonders just how much further this genre can go. Yes, it also stars an American kid, and is directed by an American (Rob Minkoff, who directed the masterful The Lion King and both Stuart Little films, as well as Eddie Murphy's ghastly The Haunted Mansion), which might make it more alluring to American audiences. I have to remind you all once again, however ... April.
May, as you already know, is rife with action movies with five-to-10 times the budget of this one, so it's going to have to do its damage in its first two weeks. That being said, its asking price of only $7 (Ultimate) or $6 (Box Office) is not too bad. Despite my (and Li's) misgivings, it'll probably finish no worse than second on its opening weekend, with maybe one more Top 5 finish before it disappears to DVD. I predict $40 million in total revenues, and its User Rating is anybody's guess. I still think it's a good pick.
Now we come to the film that Mr. Informative called "one of the biggest bargains of the April season," and I'm inclined to agree. Forgetting Sarah Marshall could very well end up being the best $2 pick since Superbad was incomprehensibly given that price tag last summer. Now, I'm not saying that Marshall is going to do anywhere near THAT kind of business, even though it does star the omnipresent Jonah Hill. It also stars How I Met Your Mother's Jason Segel (who also wrote the screenplay), Veronica Mars herself, Kristen Bell, SNL long-timer Bill Hader and Mila Kunis of Family Guy.
When lovable schlub Peter (Segel) is dumped by his celebrity girlfriend, Sarah (Bell), he becomes so despondent that he jets to Hawaii to begin the healing process. But ... oops! He just happens to be staying at the same resort as his ex, who just happened to bring along her hot new rock star boyfriend. Don't you hate when than happens?
Obviously, this film falls under the ever-widening Judd Apatow umbrella, and is being marketed as "from the guys who brought you The 40-Year-Old Virgin," which can only help. The trouble is, there are comedies coming each of the next three weeks (Baby Mama and Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay, followed by Made of Honor and then What Happens in Vegas), so this film, once again, needs a great opening weekend. Pay close attention to its theater count. If it's over 2,000 screens, I'd snap this up in a flash. Given that it's only $2 in both leagues, it's a great pick if it can net you ANY Top 5 points (I'd predict at least one or two) and more than $10 million (which I'd say is a virtual certainty).
When I first heard the premise for Pathology, way back in April of LAST YEAR, I was intrigued. It looked like a cross between CSI (which I love) and Mindhunters (which I also liked, despite its massive commercial failure). I also liked the cast: Alyssa Milano, Milo Ventimiglia, Michael Weston and John DeLancie ("Hey! Q is back!"). However, the love affair is long over. In case you're interested, this film centers on a group of medical students who come up with a really twisted game: seeing who can commit the perfect murder. Of course, what starts out as a theoretical exercise quickly escalates into something far more sinister, complete with treachery, deceit and murder most grisly.
If my memory serves me, this film has been postponed no less than three times since its original release date was set last year, and that never, EVER bodes well. It's no surprise that it's being dumped unceremoniously like so many Hefty bags into April, where MGM is praying that it will recoup at least a few million bucks to pay themselves back for this marketing fiasco. And seriously, "from the creators of Crank" is about the biggest turn-off you could put in a trailer, but they did it anyway. Sigh.
Priced at only $3 in both leagues, I would only be mildly tempted to take this in Box Office, and only if I already had Sarah Marshall on my slate. There's an outside chance that it could outgross everything else in the $2-$3 range, but I really doubt it. (Deception, Smart People and possibly The Strangers are probably better picks for the same amount of money.) Don't waste your last pick on this.
If you'll recall, last week I outlined what I believed will be the five biggest smashes of the summer ... but what about the others? There are at least a dozen others with the potential to be blockbusters, but the truth of the matter is, once you get past the top tier of films, the also-rans look comparatively weak. For example, last year's May Monsters (Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End) have correspondingly timed huge films opening in May of this year (Iron Man, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull). The same goes for July: Transformers and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix last year, Hancock and The Dark Knight this year. But last summer also had secondary blockbusters in Fantastic Four 2, Superbad, The Bourne Ultimatum, Knocked Up and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, among others.
At this point, I know little or nothing about the films that are coming this August. Assuming their release dates hold, we'll have The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Tropic Thunder, Journey to the Center of the Earth 3-D, The Pineapple Express, The International, and Babylon A.D. I have not seen a trailer for any of these films yet (well, okay, Tropic Thunder), so I can't really get a read on their possibilities. But I firmly believe that once you get past the top seven or eight films, the forecast gets more than a little murky. Still, this is part of my job, so here I go.
6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16) — As much as I would love for this series, based on books that I have loved since childhood, to be as successful as the Harry Potter series, it just ain't gonna happen. The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe did very well two winters ago, and I kind of half-wish that the second installment of the series would have been given a winter date this time around as well. This is a great, great adventure for the whole family, with the same director and primary actors as before, but being sandwiched between Iron Man and Indiana Jones will simply not do it any favors. Total Gross: $170 million
7. Kung Fu Panda (June 6) — You have to hand it to Pixar, who quite obviously has noticed the writing on the wall that animated films centered almost exclusively on animal characters have started to wear thin. Just as obviously, Dreamworks hasn't gotten that memo. With this and Madagascar 2 coming this winter, one wonders just how played out this genre has to get before they'll notice. At least they left Seinfeld at home. Total Gross: $160 million
8. Get Smart (June 20) — This is where it starts to get dicey. Despite the massive flop that was Evan Almighty, I still firmly believe that Steve Carell is ready to become the No. 1 comic actor in America (a fact confirmed in no small part by the complete collapse of Semi-Pro). The trailer looks funny as hell, and anyone thinking this is going to be Pink Panther-stupid had better be prepared to eat their words. Total Gross: $140 million
9. You Don't Mess With the Zohan (June 6) — It's Adam Sandler, okay?? The guy has had how many blockbuster summer comedies? In the last three years alone, The Longest Yard, Click and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry all crossed into nine-digit territory. This could very well be the one that breaks the streak, but June seems to be the month for comedies. I seriously doubt that The Incredible Hulk or The Happening is going to wrest Adam's audience away. Steve Carell, possibly. Mike Myers, maybe. But as with Will Smith, until he actually does fail miserably, I'm not going to be the one who predicts that he will. Total Gross: $130 million
10. Speed Racer (May 9) — You have no idea how much this pains me. With any justice, it would be Hellboy 2: The Golden Army in this spot, but I'm not that out to lunch. The Wachowski Brothers's take on the (ahem) classic cartoon series promises to be a power-packed, cheesy thrill ride, with 10 billion kaleidoscopic colors assaulting your brain every step of the way. I wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole in the leagues, but how weak the supporting players are this summer is a testament to why this film rounds out my Top 10. Total Gross: $125 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Please return next week, when I will be passing out the kudos for the just-completed Round One of the Super Leagues, as well as three more films scheduled for release on April 25, perhaps the most undesirable release date this side of the first week in January: SNL alums Tina Fey and Amy Poehler play a career woman and the surrogate mother she hires in the comedy Baby Mama; John Cho, Kal Penn and yes, Neil Patrick Harris, return to reprise their roles in the stoner comedy sequel Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay; and Hugh Jackman and Ewen McGregor team up for Deception, an indie release being given wide consideration.
TTFN!
The creators of Crank are wounded by Shrykespeare's callous dismissal of them and their art. He'll be sorry (no, really) when their next movie is advertised as being "from the creators of Crank and Pathology." (Now, if only they'd cast Hugh Laurie ...) He won't be sorry if you drop him a line at shrykespeare42@gmail.com. Just as long as, you know, it's not a line like, "from the creators of ..."


Narnia a surprise dud? Maybe, but not because of Indy or Iron Man; they're for totally different audiences. It's not like last year, where Shrek, Spidey and Pirates had universal appeal; these are very specific films. And I'm gonna say that Kung Fu Panda number is too optimistic.
Posted by: DacknotRick | April 04, 2008 at 04:38 PM