One of the most favorite games of French film buffs around this time of the year is to try to guess which films will make the short ist (usually around 20) of films competing for the glorious Palme d'Or. If you take a look at last year's line-up, you'll notice a few features that spiced up Fantasy Moguls leagues these last few months (especially between November and February): No Country For Old Men, Persepolis, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paranoid Park, Love Songs. Now, none of the films I will discuss this week in Dances with the Arthouse come from any Cannes glory. But watch for the annoucement from the Croisette in the coming days. You will undoubtedly find in it precious films for upcoming leagues. In the meantime, in order to offer you, next week, a special column celebrating the beginning of the summer season, I'll be chronicling today the arthouse films released between May 9 and May 16: Noise, Padre Nuestro and Reprise.

Who knows what Henry Bean's career will look like in 15 or 20 years? What I do know is that many cinephiles (including myself) will always remember him as the director who first trusted Ryan Gosling's dazzling talent. Gosling had mostly been a bit player for about six years when Bean put the young actor in front of the camera to tackle the difficult and fascinating lead role of The Believer. It was Bean's first feature film as a director, and Noise (May 9), will be only his second. It took the man almost seven years to make his sophomore picture and, seven years later, it still is a low-budget New York drama. In it, Tim Robbins (who, can you believe it, will turn 50 this year) portrays David Owen, a family man who cannot stand the continuous noise that pollutes New York City. Noting the lack of action from various authorities and city administrators, our hero decides to take action against excessive noise himself. (Bonus: William Hurt plays the mayor of New York!)

I guess you might call Noise a "vigilante movie," as some already have, with, instead of a man taking action to avenge someone lost, doing so to fight city noises. You might say, then, that he's kind of an environmentalist vigilante. The funniest thing in this story is that the screenplay for Noise depicts the real-life struggle and obsession of Henry Bean with excessive noise in New York City. The man really tried to do something about the problem, and then one day decided the best way to alert people on his crusade would be to make a film out of it. Unfortunately for him, Noise is unlikely to attract a huge audience. It's hard to imagine that ThinkFilm, which distributes the film, will find a way to make a big impact in May, with all of its blockbuster tentpoles. Besides, after its world premiere at the Rome Film Festival, Noise failed to raise praise, collecting mostly lukewarm reviews (although a few were excellent) and a soft word of mouth (the IMDb User Rating currently sits at 6.3 with more than 400 votes).

Now, if the film opens on a very limited scale, it has a shot at collecting a couple of PTA points for Ultimate Movie Moguls players. But that, and a User rating that will apparently stay well under 7, really don't make it an interesting pick with its price tag of $7. Don't even think about it in Box Office Moguls leagues, where the film will only garner a few thousand dollars. It's too bad, because, ever since his turn as the tennis coach in The Squid and the Whale, am I the only one to think William Baldwin could be as cool as his big bro Alec if he had the opportunity?

After the surprise success of Under the Same Moon (which has earned more than $10 million, and counting) it's hard not to keep an eye on Padre Nuestro (May 14), thinking it might do something noticeable at any level. In Under the Same Moon, it was a kid trying to find his mother; Padre Nuestro features a Mexican young man who illegally enters the United States to search for the father he's never met. On his way to New York City, though, the naive young lad spills his hopes and desires to another immigrant ... who sniffs a plum opportunity of making valuable connection of his own.

A first feature film by Christopher Zalla, Padre Nuestro began its career under a lucky star, as the film won the Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival, the most prestigious award at Park City. The only trouble is that it happened in January ... 2007. Long, long months ago, almost a year and a half, which is more than long enough for almost everyone who knew the movie to have forgotten about it. What is even more harmful for Zalla and his debut is that the buzz wasn't even that high at the time, and reviews not that good. That could mean sudden death for the film, as it would for many. Then again, Under the Same Moon came along just a few weeks ago, and proved that expected scenarios can end up in the trash. Like Padre Nuestro, Under the Same Moon waited on a shelf for many months, and was greeted by mixed reviews upon its release. And yet, look at the film's career, and what it reaped for Fantasy Moguls players in the end.

Now, one thing's for sure, though, Padre Nuestro will not grab $10 million at the box-office, or even half of that amount (no need to purchase it in Box Office leagues). But one has to wonder, if Under the Same Moon can display terrific PTA numbers in 100 theaters, why couldn't Padre Nuestro do the same? After all, it's only being released in one theater in New York City. Sure, it's opening on a Wednesday, and is facing the likes of Iron Man, Speed Racer and Prince Caspian. But the film only costs $5 in Ultimate leagues, and there aren't that many arthouse films with potential available for such a low price. I still prefer The Edge of Heaven's profile in that same price range, but Padre Nuestro could surf a little on Under the Same Moon's success. Maybe.

I don't remember if I ever confessed a blind spot in my eclectic taste for cinema. If I haven't said it before, then now is the time to break the "Indie Jones loves everything that is foreign" stereotype. Ready? Here I go: I'm not a fan of Scandinavian cinema. There, I said it, what a relief. (Grin.) I know, I know ... Dreyer, Bergman, von Trier, etc. Yes, yes ... but no, sorry. Everyone has flaws, and mine is to not appreciate Scandinavian cinema. With a few one-off exceptions of course. For example, I adored After the Wedding and the Pusher films ... maybe I just like Mads Mikkelsen though).

This confession has one purpose: To explain that, despite my generally low expectations of north European cinema, I am genuinely eager to see the Norwegian feature Reprise (May 16). I am not even trying to figure out why, because on paper, at first glance, nothing about the film caught my eye or lit a fire in my heart. The pitch is basically as follows: Two longtime friends, both with literary dreams and ambitions, experience the difficulties, joys, deceptions and passions of life, between Oslo and Paris. Some of you may think the incursion of Paris explains my interest, but it doesn't. Two things sparkled for me. First, the growing word of mouth surrounding the film: a strong User Rating on IMDb (7.4 with more than 900 votes), awards won in Karlovy Vary and Toronto, and, of course, great reviews. Second, the trailer. It totally sold the film to me, presenting a film seemingly mixing the simplicity of emotions with a certain daunting taste for intellect. I know, many Scandinavian films could probably fill such a description. But I clicked with this one in particular (although, who knows, maybe I won't even like the film eventually).

Back on Fantasy Moguls ground, though, here is Reprise's position: It has no place on a Box Office slate ... and as for Ultimate Moguls, I would say it is an undeniable risk. The film's reputation and clear potential could make it a must-have in another period of the year, but in May, it probably is much too expensive, at $12, to be worth your Moguls money. Even if I'm confident Miramax has the talent to assure the film an interesting career (for a Scandinavian picture), it's quite unlikely that Fantasy Moguls players will reap a worthwhile return on investment. A few million dollars at the very best at the box-office, with 6 or 7 PTA points, is the absolute best-case scenario (and a 7.4 UR). If you consider that a good return on investment in the summer season, grab it. If you don't, save your money for something else.

Et voilà! Spring officially comes to an end next week in Hollywoodland (I'm still waiting for it to start in Paris!). On this occasion, next week's column will be a special one. I will ... no, let's just wait until then, you'll see for yourself. In the meantime, do yourself a favor and watch Monty Python and the Holy Grail for the 7th, 16th or 32nd time. We all need a good laugh. Okay, I do. You wouldn't let me laugh alone,  though, would you?

Indie Jones thinks it's his duty as a night to sample as much peril as he can. So, um, he's taking the next off and visiting Castle Anthrax. Tell him about your own exploits at danceswiththearthouse@gmail.com.