WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Baby Mama' Delivers $17.7M; 'Harold & Kumar' Get Smoked w/$13.9M; 'Deception' Tallies Less Than $2.5M; Claude Lelouch Tops PTA w/Errol Morris No. 2 and Helen Hunt No. 3!
by Steve Mason
Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Hollywood is heading into its biggest season after a very solid weekend. Last year, on the weekend before the release of mega-blockbuster Spider-Man 3 (Sony), the top 12 movies generated $62.2 million. This year, on the three-day prior to the release of Paramount's Iron Man, the top 12 have scored an estimated $80.6 million. That's a 25 percent year-over-year increase, and four films will finish with $10 million-plus.
As I first reported Friday, the fertility-themed comedy Baby Mama (Universal) has won the weekend. The Tina Fey-Amy Poehler vehicle received a decent 13 percent Friday-to-Saturday bump, adding another $7.09 million. That should translate to a better-than-expected $17.7 million for the weekend. Meanwhile, Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.), staggered to a $5.07 million Saturday, down 11 percent from opening day. The stoner sequel will likely wrap up the frame with $13.91 million or so.
It's a photo finish for No. 3. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) received a better Saturday bounce than Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), winning the day $5.07 million-$4.87 million. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy will fare better on Sunday however, and I'm projecting that Jason Segel's breakthrough film will top Jackie Chan and Jet Li by a nose.
Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) finished fifth on Saturday with a nice family matinee bounce, but Prom Night (Sony) will be No. 5 for the weekend. The low-budget slasher remake will have banked another $4.75 million by Monday morning, pushing its cume past $38 million.
The other new wide release is an unmitigated disaster. Deception (20th Century Fox) will finish No. 10 with an unimaginably bad $2.28 million, a meager $1,139 per screen average. This really makes you wonder about the box office clout of Hugh Jackman and Ewan McGregor.
In the weekend PTA race, Oscar winner Claude Lelouch's Roman De Gare (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) has opened strongly on two screens with $12,818 per location. Errol Morris's well-reviewed Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) managed $8,869 per screen, but that's not particularly impressive. Two prime theatres, spectacular reviews, and still this doc about the Abu Ghraib prison scandal has failed to break out with a $10,000-plus PTA. This is further evidence that any films relating to the Iraq War will have trouble selling tickets. Helen Hunt's excellent Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) will deliver a nearly $8,000 PTA, the third best PTA of the weekend.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — 2 locations, $12,818 PTA
2. NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — 2 locations, $8,869 PTA
3. NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — 9 locations, $7,778 PTA
4. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — 2,543 locations, $6,962 PTA
5. Ben X (Equinoxe) — 5 locations, $6,800 PTA
6. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — 2,510 locations, $5,545 PTA
7. The Visitor (Overture Films) — 76 locations, $5,289 PTA
8. The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — 11 locations, $5,000 PTA
9. NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — 1 location, $4,795 PTA
10. NEW Without the King (First Run) — 1 location, $4,384 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — $7.09 million, $2,791 PTA, $13.37 million cume
2. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $5.07 million, $2,021 PTA, $10.77 million cume
3. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $4.87 million, $1,547 PTA, $35.1 million cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $4.64 million, $1,659 PTA, $32.1 million cume
5. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $2.088 million, $701 PTA, $37.7 million cume
6. Prom Night (Sony) — $2.081 million, $738 PTA, $37.5 million cume
7. 21 (Sony) — $1.84 million, $626 PTA, $74.8 million cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $1.58 million, $732 PTA, $11.6 million cume
9. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $1.12 million, $522 PTA, $147.2 million cume
10. NEW Deception (20th Century Fox) — $950,000, $475 PTA, $1.71 million cume
11. Street Kings (20th Century Fox) — $935,000, $539 PTA, $23.1 million cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) — $855,000, $381 PTA, $28.8 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $175,000, $2,303 PTA, $614,000 cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $97,000, $1,732 PTA, $456,000 cume
* NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $29,000, $3,222 PTA, $49,000 cume
* The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) — $29,000, $784 PTA, $78,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $23,000, $2,091 PTA, $180,000 cume
* NEW A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) — $20,000, $345 PTA, $36,000 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $17,000, $3,400 PTA, $96,000 cume
* NEW Deal (MGM) — $13,000, $260 PTA, $25,000 cume
* NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $11,543, $5,772 PTA, $17,555 cume
* NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $7,537, $3,768 PTA, $12,463 cume
* NEW Rogue (Third Rail) — $2,969, $297 PTA, $4,948 cume
* NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — $1,851, $1,851 PTA, $3,684 cume
* NEW Without the King (First Run) — $1,581, $1,581 PTA, $3,357 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — $17.7 million, $6,962 PTA, $17.7 million cume
2. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $13.91 million, $5,545 PTA, $13.91 million cume
3. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $11.51 million, $4,112 PTA, $35.5 million cume
4. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $11.44 million, $3,631 PTA, $38.4 million cume
5. Prom Night (Sony) — $4.75 million, $1,687 PTA, $38.4 million cume
6. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $4.6 million, $1,546 PTA, $39 million cume
7. 21 (Sony) — $4.15 million, $1,409 PTA, $75.9 million cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $3.64 million, $1,682 PTA, $12.6 million cume
9. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $2.51 million, $1,164 PTA, $147.9 million cume
10. NEW Deception (20th Century Fox) — $2.28 million, $1,139 PTA, $2.28 million cume
11. Street Kings (20th Century Fox) — $2.19 million, $1,265 PTA, $23.7 million cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) — $1.88 million, $838 PTA, $29.3 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $402,000, $5,289 PTA, $751,000 cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $226,000, $4,036 PTA, $534,000 cume
* NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $70,000, $7,778 PTA, $70,000 cume
* The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) — $70,000, $1,892 PTA, $101,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $55,000, $5,000 PTA, $198,000 cume
* NEW A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) — $49,000, $845 PTA, $49,000 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $34,000, $6,800 PTA, $108,000 cume
* NEW Deal (MGM) — $33,000, $660 PTA, $33,000 cume
* NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $25,635, $12,818 PTA, $25,635 cume
* NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $17,739, $8,869 PTA, $17,739 cume
* NEW Rogue (Third Rail) — $6,550, $655 PTA, $6,550 cume
* NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — $4,795, $4,384 PTA, $4,384 cume
* NEW Without the King (First Run) — $4,384, $4,384 PTA, $4,384 cume
FRIDAY NIGHT: The fertility-themed all-girl comedy Baby Mama (Universal) has scored a weekend win over stoners Harold & Kumar. The SNL comedy duo of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler have carried the day with an estimated $5.52 million opening day, which should translate to $15.49 million for the final three-day period before the start of the lucrative blockbuster season.
The marijuana-themed R-rated reunion of Kal Penn and John Cho in Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros) meanwhile didn't "get high" enough to grab the weekend crown. The sequel to the 2004 Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle, a video and cable hit, has generated $5.09 million Friday, and it is headed for $13.48 million. That makes the stoner comedy a solid No. 2 for the weekend, and the number is impressive considering that the original only managed $18.25 million in domestic box office.
Universal's other female-friendly comedy, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, will experience only a 35 percent drop from its opening weekend. The critically-acclaimed, Judd Apatow-produced charmer added $3.61 million on its second Friday and will finish the three-day with a solid $11.6 million and a new cume of $35.6 million.
Last week's box office champ The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) isn't holding up quite as well. The Jackie Chan-Jet Li Chinese fable flew to another $3.35 million on Friday, and it will battle its way to an estimated $10.34 million. That's down 52 percent from opening weekend.
The surprisingly resilient Prom Night (Sony) will likely hold off Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) for the No. 5 spot. The slasher remake should manage to scare up another $4.25 million in its third weekend.
It is an understatement to call the other new wide release a disaster. Deception (20th Century Fox), starring Hugh Jackman, Ewan McGregor and Michelle Williams, is on 2,000 screens, but still failed to break $1 million on opening day. Amazingly, this major studio release will finish the three-day with $2.6 million or so and a Per Theatre Average of just $1,289. This gem is making Pacino's 88 Minutes look like a blockbuster.
Two independent film legends, Oscar winner Claude Lelouch and acclaimed documentarian Errol Morris, have new limited releases at the top of the weekend Per Theater scoreboard. Lelouch's Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) and Morris's Abu Ghraib doc Standard Operating Procedure, are both on two screens and both seem headed for weekend PTAs of $9,000-plus. Also performing well in limited release is Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm), written, directed and starring Helen Hunt along with Bette Midler. The mother-daughter relationship drama is on eight screens, and it is targeting $8,000 per for the three-day.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — 2 locations, $9,138 PTA
2. NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — 2 locations, $9,113 PTA
3. NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — 9 locations, $8,000 PTA
4. NEW Up the Yangtze (Zeitgeist) — 1 location, $7,500 PTA
5. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — 2,543 locations, $6,091 PTA
6. The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — 11 locations, $5,545 PTA
7. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — 2,510 locations, $5,374 PTA
8. NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — 1 location, $5,225 PTA
9. The Visitor (Overture Films) — 76 locations, $4,618 PTA
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — 2,799 locations, $4,144 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — $5.52 million, $2,171 PTA, $5.52 million cume
2. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $5.09 million, $2,028 PTA, $5.09 million cume
3. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $3.61 million, $1,290 PTA, $27.6 million cume
4. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $3.35 million, $1,063 PTA, $30.3 million cume
5. Prom Night (Sony) — $1.6 million, $569 PTA, $35.3 million cume
6. 21 (Sony) — $1.25 million, $423 PTA, $73 million cume
7. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $1.17 million, $395 PTA, $35.6 million cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $985,000- $454 PTA, $10 million cume
9. NEW Deception (20th Century Fox) — $905,000, $452 PTA, $905,000 cume
10. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $675,000, $313 PTA, $146.1 million cume
11. Street Kings (20th Century Fox) — $625,000, $360 PTA, $22.1 million cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) — $530,000, $236 PTA, $27.9 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $90,000, $1,184 PTA, $439,000 cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $51,000, $911 PTA, $359,000 cume
* NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $18,945, $2,105 PTA, $18,945 cume
* The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) — $18,538, $501 PTA, $49,000 cume
* NEW A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) — $15,428, $266 PTA, $15,428 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $13,500, $1,227 PTA, $157,000 cume
* NEW Deal (MGM) — $9,300, $186 PTA, $9,300 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $5,048, $1,010 PTA, $79,000 cume
* NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $4,938, $2,469 PTA, $4,938 cume
* NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $4,926, $2,463 PTA, $4,926 cume
* NEW Up the Yangtze (Zeitgeist) — $2,322, $2,322 PTA, $2,322 cume
* NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — $1,833, $1,833 PTA, $1,833 cume
* NEW Rogue (Third Rail) — $1,620, $162 PTA, $1,620 cume
* NEW Without the King (First Run) — $812, $812 PTA, $812 cume
* NEW Dare Not Walk Alone (Indican) — $604, $302 PTA, $604 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Baby Mama (Universal) — $15.49 million, $6,091 PTA, $15.49 million cume
2. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $13.48 million, $5,374 PTA, $13.48 million cume
3. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $11.6 million, $4,144 PTA, $35.6 million cume
4. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $10.34 million, $3,281 PTA, $37.3 million cume
5. Prom Night (Sony) — $4.25 million, $1,507 PTA, $37.9 million cume
6. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $4.21 million, $1,414 PTA, $38.6 million cume
7. 21 (Sony) — $3.93 million, $1,334 PTA, $75.7 million cume
8. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $3.15 million, $1,454 PTA, $12.1 million cume
9. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $2.59 million, $1,204 PTA, $148 million cume
10. NEW Deception (20th Century Fox) — $2.57 million, $1,289 PTA, $2.57 million cume
11. Street Kings (20th Century Fox) — $2.06 million, $1,189 PTA, $23.6 million cume
12. Leatherheads (Universal) — $1.69 million, $755 PTA, $29.1 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $351,000, $4,618 PTA, $700,000 cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $194,000, $3,461 PTA, $502,000 cume
* NEW Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $72,000, $8,000 PTA, $72,000 cume
* The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) — $65,000, $1,757 PTA, $96,000 cume
* NEW A Plumm Summer (Freestyle Releasing) — $53,000, $914 PTA, $53,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $61,000, $5,545 PTA, $204,000 cume
* NEW Deal (MGM) — $26,000, $520 PTA, $26,000 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $17,000, $3,400 PTA, $91,000 cume
* NEW Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $18,275, $9,138 PTA, $18,275 cume
* NEW Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $18,225, $9,113 PTA, $18,225 cume
* NEW Up the Yangtze (Zeitgeist) — $7,500, $7,500 PTA, $7,500 cume
* NEW War, Inc. (Independent) — $5,225, $5,225 PTA, $5,225 cume
* NEW Rogue (Third Rail) — $4,225, $423 PTA, $4,225 cume
* NEW Without the King (First Run) — $2,720, $2,720 PTA, $2,720 cume
* NEW Dare Not Walk Alone (Indican) — $1,933, $966 PTA, $1,933 cume
Does anyone know when the last time that the top 3 were comedies was?
Posted by: A.B | April 26, 2008 at 04:35 AM
Not sure... they should have a page for that at Box Office Mojo or something. I tried looking at last summer to see if anything matched, but the best I could find was Ratatouille-Die Hard-Evan Almighty. *Shrugs*
Posted by: DacknotRick | April 26, 2008 at 05:29 AM
hmm i was just wondering, thats quite rare then for 3 comedies to take the top 3 spots.
Good news for FSM, saw it the other night, very funny, hopefully it will continue to hold up well and finish around the $80 mill mark.
Posted by: A.B | April 26, 2008 at 06:12 AM
That's 2 for 2! Woohoo! Wow. I didn't think Deceptio would bomb that hard. Good thing I dropped S.O.P. and Then She Found Me from my Bankrupts slate. Can't wait for the summer.
Posted by: JackO | April 26, 2008 at 07:49 AM
Nice to see that the tracking info was useless again. :rollingeyes:
I'm at the point qhere I'm almost questioning what "Iron Man" is capable of next week.
Posted by: bernox | April 26, 2008 at 08:59 AM