Those who have seen Iron Man (Paramount) have been blown away by Jon Favreau’s Marvel adaptation. One exec described it as being not so much a superhero movie, but not exactly science fiction either. It is more "science fact," apparently. Paramount has every reason to be thrilled with early tracking for Iron Man, which hits one week from Friday on May 2. I’m told that Un-Aided Awareness, the best measure of buzz and anticipation, is at a solid 15 percent. The Total Aware is at 82 percent, so it will likely reach complete saturation by opening day. With 11 days until opening, Definite Interest is an excellent 50 percent and the Robert Downey Jr. vehicle checks in with a 20 percent First Choice.

As of today, it appears that Iron Man will fall well short of the $151.1 million that Spider-Man 3 earned on the same weekend last year, but an opening weekend haul of better than $60 million is all but guaranteed. This is a conservative early read, of course, and it’s very possible that I’ll adjust my number north early next week.

The other May 2 release is Sony's Made of Honor. McDreamy, aka Patrick Dempsey, has real female appeal, although, as of now, only 66 percent of moviegoers have even heard about his new movie. Made still appears to be a solid piece of counter-programming. My sources point out that, even though Overall Definite Interest is at 29 percent, the rom-com has 43 percent Definite Interest among Females Under 25, and 37 percent with Females 25 Plus. As of Tuesday (April 22), it is very possible that $16 million-$19 million is in the cards on opening weekend.

There is every reason for Warner Bros. to be concerned about the Wachowski Brothers’s treatment of the classic cartoon Speed Racer. I am hearing that Un-Aided Awareness is at only 5 percent, though it has a Total Aware of 77 percent. Definite Interest, however, is at a mere 29 percent, and that could spell trouble. That's less interest, for example, than has already been generated by the Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher picture What Happens in Vegas (Fox), which opens on the same day.

Speed Racer is showing strength with the 25 Plus crowd — people who grew up watching the original show — but it's struggling to get traction with Under 25s. Warner Bros. must be hoping that this picture will skew very young and will play like a family film, luring parents to bring their children. Preteens are never fully represented in industry tracking, but, even so, this is a big, very expensive blockbuster. Unless it is connects more strongly with Males Under 25, it could turn into a huge disappointment.