Not that Paramount wants this info out there. Privately, they’re saying that anything that starts with a "7" for the three-day will make them very happy, but that’s just the standard "keep expectations low" game. Iron Man, based on early reviews and buzz, will fly considerably higher than $70 million. (I attempted to get into the All Media screening Monday night at the Arclight in Hollywood, but the place was crawling with "fanboys," and I wasn’t the only somewhat legit media guy who couldn't get a seat.)

Transformers was stronger in Un-Aided Awareness prior to opening with 26 percent compared to Iron Man’s 23 percent, and Michael Bay's giant robots had better Total Awareness 94 percent-87 percent, but the Marvel Studios offering directed by Jon Favreau has a better Definite Interest number (51 percent-46 percent) and a better First Choice score 29 percent-23 percent. Amazingly, young males are more "amped up" for Iron Man than they were for the arrival of Optimus Prime.

Both Spider-Man 3 (Sony), on the same weekend last year, and Transformers delivered $8 million or so on the night before formal release (shows starting between 8 p.m. and 1 a.m.). There’s no reason why Iron Man can’t match that. Friday, the official opening day, could reach $38 million, Saturday could dip to $37 million, and Sunday will dip a little more than 20 percent to $28 million. That would mean $103 million for the official three-day and $111 million when the Thursday night preview screenings are added in. Not bad for a non-sequel. That would make it the eighth-biggest opening ever (excluding Thursday night) and the second-biggest opening ever for a non-sequel, trailing only the original Spider-Man, which delivered $114.8 million.

As for Sony’s female-skewing counterprogramming gambit, the Patrick Dempsey film Made of Honor, it will be an uphill climb. One studio exec compared its tracking to Warner Bros.'s Christmas release P.S. I Love You. It's clearly a notch better than that, with what I'm hearing is a stronger Total Aware (70 percent-67 percent), Definite Interest (29 percent-24 percent) and First Choice (8 percent-5 percent). The Hilary Swank-Gerard Butler chick flick opened with a three-day of $6.7 million and grabbed a mere $14.2 million in its first seven days, which included Christmas. Dempsey's role on Grey's Anatomy puts him right "in the wheelhouse" of Females 25 Plus, but it's still difficult to see how Made to Honor gets much past $15 million on opening weekend, and the rom-com's ceiling is about $18 million.