Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo is the first of the New Line films to be released by Warner Bros. This is an R-rated sequel to the 2004 cult classic Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle, which grossed just $18.25 million domestic. Since the movie's modestly successful theatrical run, however, this racy little marijuana-fueled comedy has been a DVD/cable/midnight movie blockbuster. Plus lines like, "Did Doogie Howser just steal my effin' car?" and countless others have become quotable catch phrases for the many H&K fans.

That doesn't mean that the latest Harold & Kumar adventure, which includes another appearance by Neal Patrick Harris as himself, will be a blockbuster. My studio sources tell me that Guantanamo has a Total Aware of a decent 61 percent. Going inside the numbers, however, 58 percent of Males Under 25 have Definite Interest and 27 percent of young males say it's their First Choice. This is the most reliable demo in the movie business, and add in a solid 14 percent First Choice among Males 25 Plus, and this low-budget comedy should open pretty well. As of Monday night, I'm calling for at least $14 million-$17 million on opening weekend, which would be a real success.

The movie for the ladies this weekend is Baby Mama (Universal), starring the brilliant Tina Fey and the almost-as-good Amy Poehler. Industry types tell me that the Total Aware for this one is a respectable 65 percent — that's even a few ticks better, you'll note, than Harold & Kumar. The big numbers, however, are a 49 percent Definite Interest with Females Under 25 and a 22 percent First Choice in that demo. Add in a 15 percent First Choice among Females 25 Plus, and you've got an almost-mirror image of the Harold & Kumar tracking, but with females.

My instincts as of Monday night say that on "date night," when faced with a choice between Harold & Kumar and Baby Mama, the girls will give in and see the stoner movie. I say that will put Baby Mama in the $11 million-$14 million range.

The third wide release is a classic "get it off the shelf and get rid of it" gem called Deception (20th Century Fox), starring Ewan McGregor, Hugh Jackman and Michelle Williams. This film has been barely marketed and probably will be seen by almost no critics prior to Friday. My sources say that with a Total Aware of 37 percent, Definite Interest of 18 percent and a 2 percent First Choice score, Deception could very well finish with less than $5 million.

That's the snapshot as of Monday. Thursday, I'll go online with my final predictions based on the very latest intel.