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April 08, 2008

TIP OF THE WEEK: Save a Little Moguls Money for June

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Now that April-June leagues have begun, it's high time to look a little more in-depth at June's offerings. After all, even though June is the last month of the current season, there might still be some cutoff bargains to be had. If you so choose, you can shell out the big bucks for Kung Fu Panda, at $37 in Ultimate leagues and $39 in Box Office, but no other film opening in June costs more than $21 in Ultimate (Wall-E) or $14 in Box Office (Wall-E again). This week I'm looking at six of June's mini-tentpole releases — the ones besides Kung Fu Panda — to determine which of them are big time values for their price, and which ones are just a lonely mirage during the sweltering summer.

The premise of You Don't Mess With the Zohan (June 6; $10 Ultimate, $10 Box Office) is pretty ridiculous — an Israeli counterterrorist who wants to become a hairstylist? — but Adam Sandler sells tickets. To be honest, this looks weaker than his last two summer contributions, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry and Click, but it still shouldn't fare too poorly. It doesn't really have much to compete with, aside from Panda and the legs of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. With four solid weeks to earn in the middle of summer, when dropoffs from week to week are smaller, that price tag is mighty tempting. Truthfully, I think the $60 million that Fantasy Moguls projects is a little low; no Sandler comedy has failed to cross the $100 million mark since 8 Crazy Nights back in 2002. (I specify comedy because those are obviously in a different vein from, say, Reign Over Me or Spanglish.) And while this one may not scrape together $100 million, paying $10 for even $80 million is a pretty good bargain. Not to mention, you'll grab a sizable handful of top 5 points and the review score won't kill you either. And of course, if you're one of Rob Schneider's six remaining fans, you know you count on him to at least make a cameo.

First M. Night Shyamalan ran out of leeway with Disney, so he moved to Warner Bros. to make Lady in the Water. Since that didn't go so well for him, now he's with yet another studio — 20th Century Fox is releasing The Happening (June 13; $11 Ultimate, $8 Box Office). I've heard early reviews ranging from "awful" to "redeeming," but, honestly, I'm just not feelin' this one. It's my hunch that this movie will end up being nicknamed The Crappening. It could be somewhat interesting, but Shyamalan has lost his luster. The Friday the 13th release date is working for it, but when that's all that's in your favor, there's cause for worry. Even so, maybe it could be a comeback of sorts, and for that small of a price tag, it won't hurt you too badly to take a flyer on it. I mean, I don't think it'll win its opening weekend, but should stick around in the Top 5 for a few weeks, and the review score shouldn't be terrible, certainly nothing that'll singlehandedly kill your slate. There's also not much else in Box Office leagues that's even remotely appealing priced at $8 or lower; The Happening is certainly a better option than Forbidden Kingdom or 88 Minutes, and definitely better than the now-postponed Midnight Meat Train. For that matter, it'll probably end up doing more business than the costlier Nim's Island. Just tread carefully, because if it does fail, I won't be surprised.

For the record, The Incredible Hulk (June 13; $13 Ultimate, $12 Box Office) has nothing to do with Ang Lee's Hulk from 2003. Yet people still seem to make that connection, and it may end up hurting business a little. Still, watch out for this film — I see it positioned a little like Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, which was at first just an afterthought last summer, but went on to make $131 million. I'll admit I don't find the trailer all that interesting, but just because I'm not stoked to see it doesn't mean there aren't people who are excited. (I auditioned for the role of Bruce Banner, but they thought a superhero playing another superhero was ... not exactly what they were looking for. Not to mention I demanded a higher salary than Edward Norton, and they wanted someone a little less burly.) If nothing else, I think people will eventually realize, "Hey, this looks better than that other Hulk movie; it's less moody and more about brute force!" If I had to guess right now, I'd say it'll win its opening weekend and stay in the Top 5 through the end of June, maybe even snag a few PTA points in the meantime. I also say that $80 million total is too low; I think it breaks $100 million, but does so quietly.

Who better to play a bumbling secret agent than Steve Carell? The awkwardness and cluelessness he's displayed in The 40-Year-Old Virgin and The Office are just perfect. Get Smart (June 20; $15 Ultimate, $10 Box Office) is a tremendous bargain, even with only two weeks of eligibility in the season. A good portion of the revenue will be made in the first two weeks anyway, and that's when the Top 5 points (no more than 9 in two weeks, but that's still not bad) and PTA points (and it should scrape a few) will come too. Again, a solid $80-100 million in two weeks is definitely within reach, and for $10, that's a steal. And even though he only has a writing credit for creating the characters, Mel Brooks's name is worth throwing around. If you like Spaceballs and/or Blazing Saddles, then I'd imagine this will be much in the same vein, almost like a parody of spy movies (only an intelligent one, not just a mashup of pop culture, which is what seems to pass for parody these days — are you listening, producers of Goodie Two Shoes?) You'd be very smart to get Agent 86 onto your slate right away.

I have a theory: The Love Guru (June 20; $8 Ultimate, $8 Box Office) is an old idea Mike Myers had for a Saturday Night Live sketch, but he never got to do it on the show. So, he decided to make it into a full length movie. The problem is, the exaggerated character might be funny in small doses, but not for an hour and a half (or two hours, or whatever the case may be). There might be a few funny lines ("I'm sorry, I didn't catch your gnome ... name!"), Justin Timberlake might steal a few scenes, and Jessica Alba is nice to look at ... but beyond that, it's just way too over-the-top. Here's a memo: Explaining the jokes right after you tell them doesn't make them funnier. And as a comedy, coming out against another comedy (Get Smart) probably wasn't the best idea. The fact that two of Myers's most recent movies made over $300 million has no bearing on this, because those were Shrek 2 and Shrek the Third, and therefore it wasn't really because of Myers that they were so successful. I honestly think the $65 million Fantasy Moguls calls for might be a little high — it won't win the weekend, and might even struggle to crack the Top 5. Maybe Myers can join M. Night Shyamalan in the Lost His Touch Club.

The biggest opening weekend ever for a Pixar movie is $70.4 million (for The Incredibles, barely beating Finding Nemo at $70.2 million). I honestly think that Wall-E (June 27; $21 Ultimate, $14 Box Office) could beat that mark. And for the time being, that first weekend is all you need to concern yourself with, since Wall-E is released on the last weekend of the April-June season. Still, it's a decent cutoff bargain, although moreso in Box Office leagues than in Ultimate. You're virtually guaranteed 5 Top 5 points, and a PTA crown wouldn't be out of the question either; the only question that remains is, how much will it make on that first weekend? Even a Cars-esque $60 million opening would be a huge boost from the final weekend of tabulations. It's really just up to you to decide whether or not the price tag is worth it. Part of me thinks it isn't, but there's really nothing else in June that will be equally big. For example, when comparing prices in Ultimate leagues, you could either pony up a few extra bucks to grab Sex and the City (probably pretty safe), or else drop down and take ... Baby Mama for $17? Yuck, no thanks. Personally, I think that Wall-E will be one of the summer's three highest-grossing films, and so you'll want to milk it for all you can while it's still relatively cheap. (I'd wager a guess that the price tag in May-July leagues will at least double.)

That's all for this week; here's hoping you don't fall into a June swoon, and, until next time, good night, and good luck!

Mister Informative predicts that M. Night Shyamalan will get his next shot directing Tom Cruise for MGM in a sequel to Battlefield Earth. Watch for that one in the summer of 2011, and send your e-mails to misterinformative@gmail.com.

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Posted at 08:49 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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Comments

slight

Both Sex in the City and Baby Mama have chance to grab 80 million in the April - June League , its the Top 5 points that I like which in the long run be very important, while Wall-e will only give you 5 top 5 points.

Posted by: slight | April 08, 2008 at 10:13 AM

Mister Informative

slight, you make a good point, but Baby Mama making $80 million seems a bit far-fetched. FM only projects it at $32 million, after all, and I personally would see it topping out around $50 mil, which Wall-E should easily make even in just its first two days. I also don't see Baby Mama winning its opening weekend (not against Harold/Kumar or possibly even Deception), and it may tumble quickly out of the top 5 once Iron Man and Speed Racer (heck, even Made of Honor) hit theaters. So, 5 top 5 points may be all you get from it, in which case, why not go with Wall-E for the higher box office numbers? There's the possibility Baby Mama could be a breakout hit, yes, but Wall-E is just an option that involves less risk.

Posted by: Mister Informative | April 08, 2008 at 10:42 AM

nick

ummm I think your predictions for the Love Guru are a little off. This movie is very similair to Meyer's Austin Powers which is a huge franchise. Even if it isnt good it can still manage at least 80mill. We may not like but what can you do?

The Hulk will bomb...enough said

There is no way Harold and Kumar beats Baby Mama opening weekend. Why dont you look at the first ones terrible numbers...its wont even top 10mill ow

Posted by: nick | April 08, 2008 at 07:38 PM

Mister Informative

As a matter of fact, Nick, I did look at Harold and Kumar's numbers. (And personally, I think the sequel is a terrible idea too, but I'm not letting my own opinion stand in the way of logic.) The first H&K movie opened to $5 million in July, a much more competitive month. This one may not break $10 million opening weekend, but it may not have to. Before you accuse me of too much blind opinion-spouting, let me remind you of this: the number one movie on the final weekend in April last year only made $9 million; it was Disturbia, in its 3rd week. April is so dead that even that much from Harold and Kumar might be enough to take the top spot. I do emphasize might, though, because it's a New Line film and we all know the fate they've come to...

Posted by: Mister Informative | April 08, 2008 at 11:17 PM

Matthew Martin

Baby Mama will flop. Universal's going to promote Forgetting Sarah Marshall and people will avoid this like they did with The Brothers Solomon.

In fact, does Baby Mama even have an audience other than forty-something women? The teens will see Harold and Kumar, couples will see Deception and everyone else will see Forgetting Sarah Marshall or The Forbidden Kingdom (mainly families for the latter).

Posted by: Matthew Martin | April 09, 2008 at 12:16 PM

Bryce

I agree with you Mr. I. But like you said don't forget that after Baby Mama comes out, the upcoming weeks of early summer blockbusters will knock it's box office potential down even further. Not that it will do extraordinary numbers, but I think that if the female audience will attend anything the weekend of the 2nd, I got to they might be more inclined to see Patrick Dempsey in Made of Honor while their Male counterparts are off seeing Ironman. The second weekend will be a rough one. for Baby Mama. I think that 80 mil is a very long shot.

Posted by: Bryce | April 13, 2008 at 09:13 AM

Frank

Yea, the Happening is officially being dubbed The Crappening . . . check out the official CRAPPENING MOVIE:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx16epbyj9g

Posted by: Frank | June 25, 2008 at 11:56 PM

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