May 2-4

Stud: Iron Man — At $41 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, this is an expensive piece of property, but it will also outperform anything else in theaters on its opening weekend by leaps and bounds. Paramount has just started to kick the advertising machine into overdrive with the release just two weeks away, so awareness can only go up from here. Like I said last week, the stars of the movie won't be the main thing selling tickets — it'll be the first-blockbuster-out-of-the-gate status, and Marvel's mostly-successful (admittedly there were some bombs in there) track record. I don't think the $200 million projected by Fantasy Moguls is a stretch at all, and it may even bring in more than the projected 14 Top 5 points — if Speed Racer disappoints, as many think it will, then Iron Man could very well remain at No. 1 for two consecutive weeks. Last year the difference between first and second place on the first weekend in May was $145 million; the gap this year won't be quite as large, but it'll still be pretty wide.

Dud: Fugitive Pieces — With Iron Man raking in the dough on (probably) more than 4,000 screens, and higher-profile limited releases in David Mamet's Redbelt and Sundance favorite Son of Rambow, Fugitive Pieces will simply get lost in the PTA shuffle. You also shouldn't count out Mister Lonely, given that it's being distributed by IFC, an outfit that really seems to know what they're doing when it comes to generating PTA for Moguls players (probably not their No. 1 concern, but still). $8 in Ultimate leagues is just too much of a risk to take given that Fugitive Pieces probably won't earn any more PTA points than a major release would. It may have a higher user rating, but personally, I'd rather take the higher box office revenue. That $8 would be better spent on, say, What Happens in Vegas, or even The Love Guru. With PTA/User Rating-only picks, it's definitely better to go cheaper. Don't even think about Fugitive Pieces in Box Office leagues either; it's got virtually no shot at becoming this year's Waitress.

Wild Card: Made of Honor — Sony's successful appeal of the MPAA rating, getting an R knocked down to a PG-13, certainly helps matters, but last year Lucky You showed us just how disastrous it can be to run so-called counter-programming against a serious May Monster. To be fair, Made of Honor should be much more successful than Lucky You, especially because it hasn't been delayed; the May 2 date was the target all along. I daresay, as well, that, even though it'll be big, Iron Man certainly isn't the box office behemoth that Spider-Man 3 was last summer. That should leave room for something else (enter Made of Honor) to grab some quick cash. (Perhaps it can pull a surprise like The Devil Wears Prada against Superman Returns, although I think that association is better made with two films arriving at the end of the month.) The best-case scenario is that Made of Honor performs something like The Break-Up (which opened to $39 million and managed a total of $118 million), but the worst-case scenario — perhaps exacerbated by immediately forthcoming competition from What Happens in Vegas — is that it does a belly flop, and given its price tag, I wouldn't want to have it on my slate if that happened.

May 9-11

Stud: What Happens in Vegas — Just like many of you probably did, I saw Cameron Diaz and Ashton Kutcher listed as the stars of this movie and sighed, thinking, alright, it's going to be generic, predictable and annoying. But after watching the trailer, I'm inclined to think that it might not be SO bad. If any May release becomes a surprise hit (the May Monsters won't be surprising), I'd say this is it. It opens on a weekend where the biggest release is a little bit vulnerable, and it does a better job catering to a mixed demographic (as opposed to Made of Honor, whose audience will be mostly female, I'd wager). Guys may not mind going to see this one TOGETHER with their significant other, instead of going to Iron Man with the boys while the ladies sit and fawn over McDreamy. I think Fantasy Moguls's projections are a tad low on all fronts (except maybe on the IMDb score); if Vegas made over $50 million, I wouldn't be surprised at all, and it should have strong enough legs to garner more than 3 Top 5 points. No matter which league type you play in, this won't cost you more than $8, and roughly eight weeks in play in April-June leagues means you'll pretty much get the benefits of the entire theatrical run. That's a quality pick no matter how you slice it.

Dud: Noise — This will meet the same fate as Fugitive Pieces; there just won't be any room for it on the PTA leaderboard, even though it's the only limited release scheduled for May 9 that's available in the current Fantasy Moguls season. It has to compete directly with both Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas, Iron Man will still be raking it in, and I'd wager that the three top-tier limited releases from the previous week will hold over very well, too. Again, I think $7 is too much to spend for a film whose only benefit to you will be a good IMDb rating and potentially some PTA points. In a less competitive month like April, it might be a good idea, but in the crowded May marketplace, no way. Splurge $1 and grab What Happens in Vegas instead, and with that leftover $2 in Box Office leagues, even taking a flyer on the long-delayed Rogue would probably work out better. Once we get into the heat of summer, spending too much money just for PTA means you won't succeed. You may win that category, but you'll get thrown under the bus as far as box office gross is concerned.

Wild Card: Speed Racer — I thought this was a misfire from the start. The Wachowski Brothers directing a family-oriented movie just seemed like it wouldn't work. Nevertheless, I'm starting to warm up to this film ... but I'm not sure that the rest of America feels the same way. In any case, the movie will be visually stunning; just judging by the trailers, I'd recommend that you see it either in IMAX or in digital projection if you can. The clarity of those formats will really be the only thing that can do the intense coloration justice. The movie itself might be really corny, but the PG rating can only help matters — clearly the film is a little more hip than a bland G might be. Towards the other end of the spectrum, I might find Speed Racer more enticing if it carried a PG-13, but last year I thought the PG rating for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer meant it would be totally diluted and financially unsuccessful. And look how that turned out: Surfer ended up breaking $100 million. So, Speed Racer may do something similar, but compared to the other May Monsters, it's much less of a sure thing.

May 16-18

Stud: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian — Rarely is it a good idea to bet against Disney. Take this little anecdote that demonstrates the advance hype for this film: The last time I went to my local theater, there was a sign posted, advertising pre-sales for Prince Caspian. The sign said "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, opens May 16, tickets on sale now!" Yet the person in line in front of me (who was with his family of four, by the way), after reading the sign, ignored that middle part and, when he stepped up to the window, pointed at the sign and asked the cashier for four tickets to the "showing of Narnia that starts right now." When the cashier explained that the film wasn't opening for nearly two months, and that the available tickets were simply pre-sales, the man was flabbergasted. All four of them were so excited to see Narnia that a small thing like a release date couldn't stop them. (Except it could; I'm pretty sure when he read the sign again, this guy felt kind of sheepish.) In any case, families WILL show up in droves once May 16 does roll around, and though Narnia won't rule the box office for more than a week, as a family film, it should have pretty good legs, and gets a good three weeks before any semblance of direct competition (Kung Fu Panda) comes along. It's mega expensive, and may not be the best value pick, but it will definitely provide great stats.

Dud: Padre Nuestro — For the same reasons as the previous two duds; even at the bargain price of $5, the competition will just be too cutthroat for this film to make a dent. Unless it stays among the PTA leaders for multiple weeks, there's just no way it's worth it — and, assuredly, it will not perform that well. The 6.2 IMDb score it currently carries isn't exactly spectacular either; many summer blockbusters can and will make that same contribution. Summer is a tricky time for arthouse and limited release movies. Unless you've got terrific buzz and a powerhouse distributor of indie films, much more than a one-weekend foothold is tough to secure. Padre Nuestro won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance in 2007, but even that is somewhat worrisome — that's an awfully long time to be sitting on the shelf. The one beacon of hope is that IFC is distributing, but even they've got to have a miss once in a while ...

Wild Card: Reprise — This is another film from Sundance 2007, and, in fact, it was even released abroad as early as September 2006. But I feel it has a better shot at some PTA points than Padre Nuestro. For one, it's a little more decorated; it won 3 Amanda Awards, which are the Norwegian equivalent of the Oscars, as well as taking the Golden Tulip for Best Film at the Istanbul International Film Festival. Admittedly, neither of those are huge cinematic events, but accolades are accolades (unless they're MTV Movie Awards or other [Fill in the blank; People's, Teens', Kids'] Choice awards, that aren't based quite so much on merit — those don't count in this context). Also, consider that the film is being distributed domestically through Miramax, whose indie film prowess brought us both No Country for Old Men and (along with Paramount Vantage) There Will Be Blood late last year. It's not the surest $12 you'll ever spend, nor would it provide the absolute best bang for your buck — but other $12 picks Son of Rambow and Redbelt might do more to cancel each other out than to help your slate, so Reprise is at least worth considering.

May 22-25

Stud: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull — You saw this one coming, right? Was there any doubt in your mind that I'd choose this? When your only direct competition is from Uwe Boll, there's bound to be some smooth seas ahead. I've read some forecasts that project Indy Jones as the king of the summer box office. While I don't completely agree with that statement, I also don't think it'll place any worse than third for the summer. $300 million isn't out of the question; last year, four movies reached that plateau, three of them sequels. To top it off, this is the cheapest Fantasy Moguls pick of any May Monster, yet it might be the one that performs the best. Under $40 for potentially $300 million and a whole slew of Top 5 points? Sign me up! Not to mention that the PTA, even at thousands of locations, will be stellar, at least for the first weekend (and possibly the second), and if the first three films are any indication, an IMDb rating of 7.0 or higher is virtually guaranteed. Harrison Ford may be turning 66 this year, but his age definitely doesn't mean his iconic character has lost its touch.

Dud: Postal — There is one name that, throughout the course of recent cinematic history, has always (and will always) be associated with "dud." That name, of course, is Uwe Boll, he of such notoriety that there exists a petition demanding that he stop making movies. If you ask him to describe himself, he'll say he's the only genius in the entire moviemaking business, but you and I both know that's a pile of bull if there ever was one. The rationale behind releasing his latest gem against Crystal Skull is that "not everyone wants to see Indiana Jones." Ah, but how wrong you are, Uwe, how wrong you are. Postal already carries a golden-by-Boll-standards 4.3 IMDb rating, but that's sure to go down eventually. Also take into account that his last effort, In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale, made a whopping $4 million over its entire run, and you've got all the facts you need to know that you should stay away from Postal at all costs. You know, unless you're TRYING to lose — Fantasy Bankrupts players, knock yourselves out.

Wild Card: The Edge of Heaven — Unlike many of the other limited release films, which I've labeled duds, I think this one has some semblance of a chance to make an impact, not least of all because it will cost you a measly $4 in Ultimate leagues. For starters, it was Germany's official submission for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar this past year, and we've seen with The Counterfeiters how Oscar recognition can benefit a film's performance. True, Heaven did not win, but neither did Persepolis, and that still fared well after it appeared in theaters last December, even meriting a recent rerelease. Also keep in mind the general rule of thumb that foreign films are a good bet for at least a few PTA points, and Heaven could be a nice little sleeper pick of sorts, to boost your totals even just by a few points. It's also sitting pretty with a sterling 8.1 IMDb score, with over 2,800 votes cast — so you know it won't go down too much, and will help you in that category just about as much as a $4 pick can.

May 30 – June 1

Stud: Sex and the City — To be completely correct, I guess this would be the female equivalent of stud. (There's a word for that, right?) Perhaps there was some worry that fans of the TV show wouldn't want to see this in theaters, but, lo and behold, last week Cynthia Nixon confirmed the rumor that one of the principal characters dies in the film. Gasp! A juicy twist! Now everyone HAS to go just because they're curious. (Or not: Duh, which one of them battled breast cancer in the show's final season? Who do you think should be fearing the Reaper?) Even without that, though, this film would have done just fine. Right here is where that Superman/Prada association I promised fits in. Just as both of those films drew huge crowds even though they were pitted against one another, so will Indiana Jones and Sex and the City share audiences this summer. The only difference is, The Devil Wears Prada was a surprise smash; Sex and the City's success will not be, or rather, should not be, surprising. $100 million is definitely possible, given that Prada made $124 million, and the R rating isn't a damper of any kind. The fanbase knows what they're getting into, and besides, with Sex in the title, what else would you expect?

Dud: The Strangers — Yawn, another R-rated horror flick. This spring, Shutter and Prom Night have shown that, in order to make money, horror films almost have to be rated PG-13. Gore no longer sells, and, aside from the Saw franchise, really hasn't for the past year. Add that these Strangers open on a bit of a throwaway date, playing second fiddle to Sex and the City (and also Indiana Jones), and this film will be dead as soon as it hits theaters. It may be chilling, but it just won't have widespread success. Maybe it can find a niche, but I'm wary of even that  —  niche success in this genre is usually reserved for George A. Romero or Rob Zombie. Expect The Strangers to get trounced on the opening weekend; it may not even crack the Top 5. Fantasy Moguls recognizes this, and that's why it'll only run you $2 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. Still, that's not a good buy; if you're only going to spend $2, grab Deception instead.

Wild Card: The Foot Fist Way — Might this become the next cult hit, a la Napoleon Dynamite? It was shot with an incredibly low budget, and completed in less than three weeks. Perhaps the best endorsement of all comes from Will Ferrell and Adam McKay, who, after watching it, apparently loved it. Its PTA prospects are decent, and its user rating superb: 8.5, although with only 88 votes. If you're feeling a bit risky, this might be a decent time to break the rule of not taking primarily-PTA films in the heat of summer, especially when they're more than $5. If it gets a bit of a following, we could see it earn PTA points in multiple weeks, and there's also a bit of potential for a somewhat breakout performance at the box office. It won't start to challenge the May Monsters by any stretch of the imagination, but a few million in revenue along with some PTA and a great IMDb score would be a great all-around contribution that's sometimes hard to find. You just have to decide if the $9 risk is worth it when there are some tempting wide releases dangling at $8.

To Uwe Boll, if you're reading this: Please don't make a response video to counter my criticism; I laughed so hard at your last one that I nearly pulled a muscle. And for the rest of you Moguls: until next week, good luck!

Mister Informative did not kill the character who dies is Sex and the City, but if he had done it, he would have had invading aliens in a giant saucer hover over New York and blast entire city blocks at a time with their death ray, because throw the fellas a bone, here. Also because that same thing (more or less) was pretty cool when it happened in Independence Day. Tell him your own ideas at misterinformative@gmail.com.