TIP OF THE WEEK SPECIAL EDITION: Summer Bargain Basement Spectacular or I Knew There Was a Reason God Created 'Space Chimps'
by Mister Informative
Greetings, Moguls! After a long, arduous winter/spring full of movies as flat as the Coke you left uncovered outside all day, summer is FINALLY here. It's time for another dose of superheroes, high powered sequels, and of course, the annual contribution from Pixar. The new May-July leagues have some very interesting prices, to be sure; whether you're in an Ultimate or Box Office league, it's possible to fit 2 or even 3 mega-blockbusters on your slate! But, in order to do that, you'll have to reach into the bargain basement for some potentially low-priced steals. Have no fear, however! As a special kickoff to the summer season, this week I am expanding my analysis to bring you: The Summer Bargain Basement Spectacular, a countdown of the best 10 films in each league type, Ultimate Movie Moguls and Box Office Moguls priced at $5 or less.
Alright, get your best Letterman voice ready:
THE TOP 10 ULTIMATE PICKS PRICED $5 OR LESS
10. Mother of Tears (June 6; $4) — Honestly, this makes it onto the list more because of exclusion than anything else. (What, you really thought I was going to recommend that you entertain the thought of putting Postal on your slate?) Horror films don't do well to begin with, and then consider that this will be a limited release on a weekend where it must compete with Kung Fu Panda and fellow indie films Mongol and When Did You Last See Your Father for PTA. No matter how much hype there is (The Signal) or who is behind it (Funny Games), even limited-release horror movies are an iffy prospect. The foreign film aspect helps Mother of Tears (it's an Italian movie), and that very well may buoy it into the top 5 PTA earners on its opening weekend. But it won't be first in that category, and the IMDb score isn't anything special either; it sits currently at a merely-satisfactory 5.9. Mother of Tears isn't the worst option out there, but even this cheap, you could do much better.
9. Savage Grace (May 28; $3) — It'll have Stuck and potential sleeper The Foot Fist Way in the way of PTA, as well as wide openers Sex and the City and the sure-to-have-good-legs Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. But perhaps the presence of Julianne Moore might bring this film a small boost. Like Mother of Tears, it's nothing you absolutely must have; the IMDb score is at 6.0, so it won't give you any cheap advantage there, and while opening on a Wednesday may not adversely affect a movie in October (Control) or April (The Flight of the Red Balloon), May is a bit of a different story. I'm not sure Savage Grace can maintain a head of steam after those first two days when there are other small films that wait until Friday to unleash their wares. Keep in mind, too, that this movie debuted at Cannes last May, opened in international markets over the course of 2007, and has also already been screened in the U.S. at Sundance and the Tribeca Film Festival this year – so perhaps any buzz there might have been over the film has died down a bit. Still, if nothing else, it's $3 you can spend (even as just a filler for that eighth spot on your slate) that won't singlehandedly cost you a victory.
8. The Longshots (July 25; $2) — A decent last-weekend filler pick. Fred Durst (!?) is the director of this family comedy starring Ice Cube; yes, he of Are We There Yet and Are We Done Yet fame. It's even based on a true story, about the first girl to play in Pop Warner football. You may know Keke Palmer, who plays said groundbreaking girl, from Akeelah and the Bee; actually, the best-case scenario is that The Longshots matches Akeelah's IMDb score (7.8). Unfortunately, it's much more likely that it'll score about half that high, in line with the two aforementioned Ice Cube family comedies (4.2 and 2.8, respectively). And does anyone else perhaps question the ability of Fred Durst to make a family movie? Is the soundtrack going to include Limp Bizkit songs? He may not be that guy anymore, but that's still the first persona I think of when I see Fred Durst's name. I do think that The Longshots could take in a good $15 million opening weekend, and snag a top 5 point or two; the question you must ask yourself is whether you're willing to absorb the potential IMDb hit.
7. Space Chimps (July 18; $2) — Hmm, there's some other movie that comes out that day, and it's supposed to be pretty big, but I can't for the life of me remember what it's called… oh yeah, The Dark Knight. 5 Top 5 points are out of the question for Space Chimps (on the first weekend, certainly, and probably over the entire run), but family movies usually have at least some semblance of success, even against other blockbusters. For example, think back to Underdog opening in the shadow of The Bourne Ultimatum. So, the total gross from the first two weeks just might provide enough of a boost to make you consider this for your slate. The caveats, however, are threefold: 1) the IMDb score will probably be very low, possibly falling beneath even the Fantasy Moguls projection of 4.8, 2) WALL-E will still be very much a factor at the box office, and 3) (somewhat related) Space Chimps isn't from a perennially successful animation studio. (I'd consider those to be Pixar and DreamWorks.) Instead, it's brought to you by the same studio as Everyone's Hero — yeesh. Tread carefully.
6. Meet Dave (July 11; $5) — A better option than Space Chimps, but still not a must-have. However, if it's a wide release you're looking for, this is the best $5-or-less option. Personally, if you're looking in that price range, I'd go with the just-outside-the-cutoff The X-Files: I Want to Believe, at $6, even though Meet Dave has comparatively more time to earn before the end of the season. The reason is that while Norbit (similar to Meet Dave because Eddie Murphy plays multiple characters) was financially successful, it was a critical disaster, and Meet Dave probably will be too. Top 5 points are possible — it won't be a plethora, but definitely more than Space Chimps — but do expect a low IMDb score with this one too. It might not be THAT bad, but on the other hand, there's a distinct possibility that yes, it could. If you're willing to take that risk, go for it — maybe the amount of box office revenue it brings in will proportionally offset the hit your IMDb total would take.
5. Padre Nuestro (May 14; $5) — I know just last week I said this would be a total dud, but there are only 12 films that fall in this price range for Ultimate leagues. Of course Postal, as I said earlier, is the first logical cut, and I found room on the Box Office list for the other. Hence, there's still some room on this list for Padre Nuestro. And perhaps I was a little harsh on it; it might snag a few PTA points, but realize that it'll be an uphill battle against The Chronicles of Narnia and potentially Reprise. Padre Nuestro won't pull an Under the Same Moon and be a surprise PTA winner, but maybe it can turn that year-old Sundance grand prize into some moderate success. Obviously you aren't choosing it to be a PTA stronghold, and again the Wednesday release date might be something to watch out for, but a 6.2 IMDb score and the potential for a few PTA points might be enough to justify giving this film a shot.
4. The Edge of Heaven (May 21; $4) — This is one of the few cases where I think the Wednesday release date won't hurt the PTA prospects too much. The Edge of Heaven does have the general foreign-films-do-well rule of thumb working for it; it's Turkish, and won 4 Golden Oranges at the Turkish national film festival. It's also carrying an 8.1 IMDb score, like I mentioned last week, and that's certainly a plus. The distributor is tiny Strand Releasing, and that might be cause for concern; it's not a powerhouse indie distributor like IFC or Fox Searchlight or Focus Features. However, there's not much else besides Indiana Jones and The Children of Huang Shi in the way of direct competition; there'll be some holdovers from the previous week among the PTA leaders, perhaps, but The Edge of Heaven should have an advantage because it's a new release. As with most anything on this list, PTA points aren't guaranteed, but the chance is better with this than with, say, Padre Nuestro or Mother of Tears.
3. Hounddog (July 18; $5) — Much ballyhooed because of its controversial rape scene, this may just have the firepower to defeat The Dark Knight for the PTA title, and I think it could sneak in there, although not at the top, in its second week (the final week of the season) as well. Dakota Fanning plays a troubled girl in the Deep South who "finds a safe haven in the music and movement of Elvis Presley." This is the movie, perhaps, where we finally get to see if Dakota Fanning has serious acting chops, and isn't just a child star who will fizzle out eventually. Hounddog's IMDb score alone isn't a reason to pick this film, but it also won't hurt you at all — it's currently at 6.2. This is a good pickup now, yes, but its placement toward the end of the season also makes it a great film to switch to later — if you have Meet Dave, say, but decide you need PTA more than box office gross, or if you have Padre Nuestro but just don't have confidence in it.
2. Mister Lonely (May 2; $3) — This is perhaps a surprise choice so high on the list, but I have confidence in this film simply because it's distributed by IFC. Three of their releases in the past month have done very well with regards to PTA — Paranoid Park, Love Songs and The Flight of the Red Balloon. That's enough to make me seriously consider this, even in the face of high profile limited releases this weekend in Redbelt and Son of Rambow. At 5.4, the IMDb score isn't great, but unless it gets below 5 (and I don't think it will), that really won't hurt too badly. Plus, doesn't the concept just sound intriguing all on its own? (Sayeth IMDb: "In Paris, a young American working as a Michael Jackson lookalike meets a Marilyn Monroe lookalike, who invites him to her lookalike community in Scotland where she lives with Charlie Chaplin and her daughter, Shirley Temple.") The amount of money it brings in will be small in the overall picture, but with so much of your salary cap free after choosing something this cheap, you can fill the rest of your slate with a few big summer blockbusters to rake in the dough.
1. Henry Poole Is Here (July 25; $2) — I think this is a possible PTA winner for its opening weekend, and 5 PTA points for $2 would be a great bargain. The X-Files: I Want to Believe and Hounddog will be in the mix as well, but Luke Wilson just might prevail. Reviews are good; the IMDb score is already at 7.3, so even with minimal box office intake and just a few PTA points, one weekend of Henry Poole could top off your season quite nicely. Much like the phenomenon of seeing an image of the Virgin Mary in your toast, Henry Poole involves a godly image engrained as a stain on the stucco exterior of, you guessed it, Henry Poole's house; he had moved there for solitude, but with this discovery/miracle, that is quickly ruptured. Faith-based movies are a tough sell, but it's not faith in God so much as the restoration of Henry's faith in humanity and life that is at the forefront here. That broader message appeals to a broader audience (even though that audience will still only be in select cities), and the prime cutoff bargain price makes this my No. 1 cheap Ultimate pick.
THE TOP 10 BOX OFFICE PICKS PRICED $5 OR LESS
10. The Promotion (June 6; $2) — On paper, this looks promising — John C. Reilly and Seann William Scott play two assistant managers of a corporate grocery store, competing against one another for a valuable promotion. (Substitute Will Ferrell for Scott and you've almost got Step Brothers 2, eh?) But, with just a little over a month until the film's release, we still have yet to see a trailer, and it looks like Dimension Films might bury this one quietly (it's already got Kung Fu Panda and You Don't Mess With the Zohan competing directly against it) or even push it back. Expansion from a limited release is the only way this film will make any significant box office contribution, but given the way that Weinstein/Dimension handles many of their releases, The Promotion might frankly never even see the light of day. Take a risk if you want, but even for $2, you can do better.
9. The Wackness (July 3; $2) — The highest-profile limited releases have the best chance to expand well and make a dent at the box office and The Wackness certainly fits that bill. It did win an audience award at Sundance this year, so there's some indication that it could have a decent amount of public appeal. Of course, the audience at Sundance is more exclusive than a theater full of Average Joe Moviegoers, but you get my drift. Some curiosity might stem from the "Mary Kate Olsen, where you have been?" sentiment, but that's probably negligible in the big picture. The biggest problem with this pick is that it does only have the final month of the season to earn, and it'll probably stay in very limited release for at least the first two weeks. Even then, a wide release is improbable; if Sony Pictures Classics decides that this film needs to expand, they'll most likely use the platform strategy. Limited releases truly need a lot of time to make any significant box office contribution; if only this had more time in the season, it'd be higher on my list.
8. Encounters at the End of the World (June 11; $2) — As with many of these cheap Box Office picks, any significant contribution will require an expansion from the original limited release. But, I feel that director Werner Herzog's name in the credits gives this film a better chance than some others to make an impact. Encounters at the End of the World is a documentary capturing the landscape of Antarctica; might we have March of the Penguins syndrome here? It's a film released in the heat of summer, portraying such a cold environment — perhaps people go to get out of the heat, to watch a "cold" movie because part of staying cool is psychological? It's not a major factor, but certainly something to think about. There may not be quite as many cute penguins to gawk at in this film, but every year, a documentary makes waves during the summer in some way, shape or form, whether it's March of the Penguins or even Sicko. There's no guarantee that Encounters will be that film this year, but the possibility is out there, and if you've only got $2 to spend, this isn't a terrible choice.
7. Son of Rambow (May 2; $2) — It's ranked below Redbelt because, while I think an endearing comedy about two young boys making their own Rambo film has a better shot at finding a wider audience (if it expands) than a film about martial arts, there is, as of yet, no planned expansion for Son of Rambow. That's not to say that a wider release plan won't emerge; the distributor is Paramount Vantage, who took Babel from 7 screens up to over 1,200 in 2006. But, without anything solid on the table right now, you have to just guess and hope, and you might be left clutching at nothing. It's important to keep in mind that Son of Rambow's release has been delayed for quite a while, yet reviews are still overwhelmingly positive. So, the delay shouldn't be a huge problem, especially when it comes to PTA. But since that doesn't matter for you Box Office players, you just have to concern yourself with whether or not you think it'll ever get wide enough to make a blip on the summer's box office radar.
6. Redbelt (May 2; $2) — Like The Wackness, this is a high profile limited release, but its potential is higher because it has the benefit of coming out on the first weekend of the new season. Therefore, it's got three full months to earn, meaning you'll reap the benefits of any theatrical expansion — and lo and behold, Sony Classics does plan on rolling this film out to 1,000 locations in just its second week. With the success of Never Back Down earlier this spring, some are calling this a potential breakout hit (of relative proportions, of course), but I'm just not sure if two similar films like this can succeed so close together, even if one does have David Mamet behind it. (And seriously, Tim Allen is a villain? How's that for out-of-the-box casting?) Still, a full season of eligibility is a good thing; as I've mentioned before, Babel made over $30 million between its opening in late October and the end of the following January. That kind of contribution from a $2 pick like Redbelt would end up being a huge bonus.
5. Religulous (June 20; $2) — Director Larry Charles (Borat) and Bill Maher are aiming for a Sicko-type hit with this "documentary," in much the same tongue-in-cheek vein as Borat, that really exposes some of the holes in modern religion (in Maher's opinion, of course). It's possible that Encounters at the End of the World will be the documentary that makes the greatest impact this summer, but if I had to forecast just one that makes it big, Religulous would be my pick. Advertising Mr. Charles as the director of Borat can only help sell this film; after that previous effort, perhaps only he is the right choice to helm a project dealing with such touchy and potentially explosive subject matter. Religulous may cross the line from time to time, but it will probably be very funny in doing so. The movie opens against Get Smart, and may show only in select cities that first weekend, but an expansion is almost sure to follow, and that's when it'll really start making waves.
4. The Strangers (May 30; $2) — This is going to be an absolutely terrible movie, and the only reason it makes it this high on the list is that, unlike anything else thus far, it is guaranteed a wide release. As we all know well by now, R-rated horror, regardless of whether it's gory or simply relies on good ol' fashioned fright, is an extremely tough sell, and trying to market it against big summer blockbusters only makes it worse. Fantasy Moguls projects $16 million total for The Strangers, and I think that's just about spot on; that's what similar R-rated horror flick The Ruins made in its first month. The Strangers may go a bit higher just by virtue of increased business volume during the summer, but if it tops $20 million I'll be surprised. Still, $15-20 million from a $2 pick is not bad at all; in the recent season, I took DOOMSDAY for $2 and I'm plenty happy with the $11 million it brought in. Better to take that much than risk getting less than $1 million from a limited release that doesn't expand.
3. Step Brothers (July 25; $4) — Beware the R rating. That, more than anything, will dampen this film's chances at the box office. It's a cutoff bargain, to be sure, but the rating, once applied, will be the main thing that determines just how much of a bargain it is. In either case, whether the movie carries an R or a PG-13, there's no way it makes the Fantasy Moguls projection of $80 million in one weekend; I'll say $40 million with a PG-13, but more like $20 million (if that) with an R. And yeah, it's probably safer to go with Step Brothers, even with the probable R rating (if director Adam McKay's comments along those lines hold true), than hope that The Strangers musters up $20 million at half the price. Above all, it could be just the boost on that last weekend that your slate needs. But, the risk of major, Semi-Pro-esque floppage is also there; the good news is, for just $4, even that wouldn't hurt quite as bad as Semi-Pro did.
2. What Happens in Vegas (May 9; $5) — This would far and away be the top choice on my board if not for, well, the film that's actually number one. But that's neither here nor there; any way you slice it, Vegas is a great film to have on your slate. For just $5, you've got a romantic comedy that's already tracking well, against a major release in Speed Racer whose blockbuster status is far less of a sure thing than any other May Monster. The second weekend in May is typically a comparatively dead time where the first blockbuster out of the gate dominates every other release, but that might not be the case here. A $20 million or better opening could be in the cards for Cameron Diaz and Ashton Kutcher, and then, you've got the rest of the theatrical run as well! No cutoff here, but it's still a fantastic bargain, and practically a must-have for any Box Office slate. It might even upset Speed Racer on the opening weekend, and if that does happen, wouldn't you rather have the higher grossing Vegas at one sixth the cost?
And finally ...
1. The X-Files: I Want to Believe (July 25; $2) — The epitome of a cutoff bargain. Last year The Simpsons Movie delivered a whopping $74 million on the final weekend of July, and while Scully and Mulder probably won't equal that feat, a good $25-30 million is very possible, and for just $2, that's an excellent ratio of cost to profit. It's been six years since the show went off the air, and 10 years since the first movie, but a time gap didn't stop Live Free or Die Hard last summer and it won't slow Dr. Jones down come Memorial Day. The last X-Files movie made $30 million opening weekend en route to $83 million total, so I do think that the $45 million Fantasy Moguls projection for I Want to Believe is a tad low as a full-run number. Even though you won't get the benefit of the full run in the current season, just that first weekend is a great value for the cheapest price possible.
Phew! We made it! Enjoy the onset of summer blockbusters, enjoy the rest of the special content throughout the week, and until next time, good luck!
Mister Informative thinks that the truth is out there. Or maybe he thinks that apology is policy. Or it could be that he'll think anything to figure out how Space Chimps came to be. Tell him your own explanation of life's eerie, spooky phenomena at misterinformative@gmail.com.


Hounddog is expected to open in 500 theatres while Henry Poole Is Here is expected to go wide. Just to clarify.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | April 29, 2008 at 10:16 AM
I had Hounddog at 400 and Henry Poole undetermined, but that's only a small difference. Thanks for the heads-up.
Posted by: Mister Informative | April 29, 2008 at 04:05 PM
I got my estimates from FilmJerk.com.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | April 29, 2008 at 06:22 PM