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May 09, 2008

SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: Second Weekend of Summer Season Proves Tough; 'Speed Racer' No Racetrack Wreck, but Still Stuck in Second Gear

by Steve Mason

Iron Man (Paramount) is the almost certain winner at America's multiplexes this weekend, and it has been well-reported that Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) will have an uphill drive. This should probably not come as a surprise, and it may have less to do with the movie than with its release date. Although I am by no means a movie critic, I like Speed Racer. The Wachowskis are certainly equal parts genius and self-indulgence, but this movie is an absolute original. In many ways reminiscent of Disney's 1982 film Tron, Racer is too long, but it is consistently engaging, a candy-colored adventure that's almost hypnotic. On a resume that includes the lesbian-flavored thriller Bound, the Matrix trilogy and the underrated V for Vendetta (directed by James McTeigue), Speed Racer is a more-than-worthy entry for the Wachowskis.

The die may have been cast, however, when Paramount's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull successfully chased the Emile Hirsch/Christina Ricci anime adaptation off of its original May 23 release date. The second weekend of the Summer Blockbuster season, as one studio exec told me, is a "death slot." In eight of the past 10 years, the movie that signaled the start of Hollywood's most lucrative season went on to win the next weekend. This weekend on the release schedule has included full-on disasters, like 2006's Poseidon, medieval action film A Knight's Tale (in 2001) and 2000's horrific laugher Battlefield Earth.

Speed Racer will not be a disaster. It may be remembered as a disappointment domestically, but, especially with the presence of Asian music superstar Rain, the film will perform well overseas, particularly in Japan, South Korea and China where he has a huge following. Here is a historical look at the first two weekends of Summer Blockbuster season for the last 10 years:

2007
First Weekend
Spider-Man 3 — $151.1 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: Spider-Man 3 — $58.1 million
Top New Release: 28 Weeks Later — $9.8 million (Opening)

2006
First Weekend
Mission: Impossible III — $47.7 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: Mission: Impossible III  — $25 million
Top New Release: Poseidon — $22.1 million (Opening)

2005
First Weekend
Kingdom of Heaven — $19.6 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie and Top New Release: Monster-in-Law  — $23.1 million (Opening)

2004
First Weekend
Van Helsing — $51.7 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie and Top New Release: Troy — $46.8 million (Opening)

2003
First Weekend
X2: X-Men United — $85.5 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: X2: X-Men United  — $40 million
Top New Release: Daddy Day Care — $27.6 million (Opening)

2002
First Weekend
Spider-Man — $114.8 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: Spider-Man  — $71.4 million
Top New Release: Unfaithful — $14 million (Opening)

2001
First Weekend
The Mummy Returns — $68.1 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: The Mummy Returns — $33.7 million
Top New Release: A Knight's Tale — $16.5 million (Opening)

2000
First Weekend
Gladiator — $34.8 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: Gladiator — $24.6 million
Top New Release: Battlefield Earth — $11.5 million (Opening)

1999
First Weekend
The Mummy — $43.3 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: The Mummy — $24.8 million
Top New Release: Black Mask — $4.4 million (Opening)

1998
First Weekend
Deep Impact — $41.1 million (Opening)
Follow-up Weekend
Top Movie: Deep Impact — $23.2 million
Top New Release: The Horse Whisperer — $13.6 million (Opening)

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Posted at 11:14 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Lol since when did Mission Impossible 3 open to $99.6 million? And what about that big $78.4 million opening for Kingdom of Heaven

Posted by: A.B | May 09, 2008 at 01:22 PM

Kingdom of Heaven opened to 19.6m. Mission: Impossible III opened to 47.7m.

Posted by: Anon | May 10, 2008 at 12:25 AM

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