Warner Bros. execs have to be relieved that the First Choice for this candy-colored Emile Hirsch thrill-ride is at 13 percent, an identical number to the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy (also at 13 percent). A decent 14 percent of Males Under 25 and the same number of Males 25 Plus say Speed Racer is their First Choice this weekend, and moms seem open to bringing the kids with 17 percent of Females 25 Plus saying it is their top choice.

There is a nostalgia factor with Speed Racer, but for it to succeed, it needs to play as an all-out family film. December's Alvin & the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) might be a good benchmark. It went off with 36 percent Definite Interest and a 24 percent First Choice, much stronger numbers than Speed, en route to a $44.3 million opening.

Complicating things for both new releases is the fact that, according to one studio exec without a dog in the fight this weekend,  "Paramount knows that there's blood in the water here. They have been watching Speed Racer tracking, and they see an opportunity. They have been ramping up media buys for Iron Man." Look for Paramount to remind people that this Robert Downey Jr. mega-hit is rated PG-13, and at least somewhat appropriate for the whole family.

I will not go online with my final weekend prediction for Speed Racer until Thursday, but as of Tuesday morning, it is hard to imagine it getting past $35 million in its first three days. What Happens in Vegas looks like it is headed for $18 million-$22 million. I am expecting Iron Man to win a second consecutive weekend, not unlike 2007's Spider-Man 3 and 2006's Mission: Impossible III, which both kicked off the lucrative summer blockbuster season and held strong for consecutive weekend wins out of the gate.