Industry tracking for IJ4 has been huge for weeks and, as of yesterday, its Un-Aided Awareness is at 38 percent, the Total Aware is 98 percent, Definite Interest is at 67 percent and the First Choice score is 55 percent. Numbers like that have certainly created monstrous box office expectations.

Now the question becomes, "How will the Memorial Day weekend play out for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull?" Everyone has been operating on the assumption that the new Indiana Jones movie would play like the typical teen-driven blockbuster a la Spider-Man 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End from last summer. That would have meant a huge Thursday, a probable 25 percent-30 percent dip on Friday, a small 5 percent or so Saturday increase, down 5 percent on Sunday, and then finally down 30 percent-35 percent on Monday. Instead, the word is that IJ4 is playing like a flat-out family film.

The generally well-reviewed Lucasfilm production was a bit softer-than-expected in Wednesday midnight shows. Previews for 12:01 a.m. and later totaled about $4 million. My sources tell me that IJ4 played very strongly with families, especially at showtimes in the 4 p.m.-8 p.m. range, but that audiences thinned later in the evening.

The word is that the three strongest demos for First Choice in industry tracking are 45-69-year-olds with 63 percent, 35-44-year-olds with 52 percent and 25-34-year-olds with 46 percent. Those are Baby Boomers and Gen X-ers with kids and grandkids, who are looking forward to introducing the young 'uns to a movie franchise that they hold in a certain holy reverence. This could translate to much bigger Saturday, Sunday and Monday matinee audiences than previously anticipated.

One studio exec told me that there is still a massive number here for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, but that the movie will get their differently than expected. The continued weakness of The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney), which dipped to an estimated $2.46 million Thursday, has left IJ4 as the primary moviegoing option, both overall and for families, over the long weekend.

Another dynamic that will have an effect on Kingdom of Crystal Skull's performance is the weather. Rain showers are possible in Florida on Friday and Saturday, while the western United States experiences unseasonably cool temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday in cities like San Francisco, Sacramento, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City and Provo. Precipitation is likely in important markets like Minneapolis and Milwaukee on Sunday. Bad weather would likely translate to fewer Memorial Day barbeques and more IJ4 tickets sold.

As I receive more box-office intel, I'll pass it along. Watch this space for regular reports all day Friday, and throughout the long weekend.

THURSDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $25 million, $5,869 PTA, $25 million cume
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $2.46 million, $626 PTA, $68.14 million cume
3. Iron Man (Paramount) — $1.77 million, $427 PTA, $232.11 million cume
4. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $1.09 million, $337 PTA, $45.32 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $423,000, $160 PTA, $35.72 million cume
6. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $394,000, $117 PTA, $32.25 million cume
7. Baby Mama (Universal) — $343,000, $163 PTA, $48.83 million cume
8. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $241,000, $212 PTA, $56.57 million cume
9. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $180,000, $240 PTA, $35.04 million cume 
10. The Forbidden Kingom (Lionsgate) — $87,000, $87 PTA, $50.8 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $62,000, $277 PTA, $3.65 million cume
12. Horton Hears A Who (20th Century Fox) — $53,000, $154 PTA, $151.46 million cume
13. 21 (Sony) — $51,000, $110 PTA, $81.27 million cume
14. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $50,000, $54 PTA, $2.24 million cume
15. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $44,000, $299 PTA, $1.7 million cume

THURSDAY 7 p.m. (Pacific): Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) is off and running, and, although business has been very good, starting with 12:01 a.m. screenings from coast-to-coast, it will not challenge Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith for the All-Time Best Thursday take. The final chapter of George Lucas's second Star Wars thrilogy scored an amazing $50 million back on May 19, 2005.

One competing studio tells me that Indy 4 will finish the day with $30 million, while another says it will more likely be in the mid-$20 million range (that includes midnight business). The all-time No. 2 Thursday is The Matrix Reloaded, with $37.5 million, followed by Star Wars: Episode II — Attack of the Clones with $30.1 million and Spider-Man 2 with $23.8 million. I'll post early estimates as soon as I get something based on solid data.