WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Sex' SHOCKER Has Sarah Jessica Parker and Gal Pals Headed to $55.7M Opening Despite Saturday Dive!; 'IJ4' Surges on Saturday and Headed to $46M 3-Day; 'Strangers' Off to Surprise $20M Start!
by Steve Mason
SUNDAY 9:00 a.m. (Pacific): Warner Bros. has told me this morning that Sex and the City scored an estimated $17.7 million on Saturday, and they are calling for $55.7 million for opening weekend. That marks a 35 percent drop from Friday-to-Saturday as this "two-quadrant" phenomenon (i.e., both Females Under 25 and Females Over 25) proved to be incredibly front-loaded. The truth, however, is that anything more than $30 million for the weekend is still a triumph.
The top two grossing playdates for Sex and the City were both in Manhattan. Regal's E-Walk in Times Square checks in at $195,000 through Saturday, followed by AMC's Lincoln Square Theatres with $181,000. The third-best playdate appears to be The Arclight in Hollywood with $144,000.
Carrie Bradshaw and friends actually finished second to Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) on Saturday as the Lucasfilm property grabbed $19.84 million. That should translate to a $46 million second weekend.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED SATURDAY AND 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $17.74 million Saturday, $55.7 million 3-day
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $19.84 million Saturday, $46 million 3-day
3. NEW The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $7.61 million Saturday, $20 million 3-day
4. Iron Man (Paramount) — $5.99 million Saturday, $13.92 million 3-day
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $5.46 million Saturday, $12.63 million 3-day
6. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $2.83 million Saturday, $6.88 million 3-day
7. Baby Mama (Universal) — $945,000 Saturday, $2.24 million 3-day
8. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $1.01 million Saturday, $2.21 million 3-day
9. Made of Honor (Sony) — $800,000 Saturday, $1.95 million 3-day
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $434,000 Saturday, $1.04 million 3-day
SATURDAY 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): Sex and the City (Warner Bros.), which enjoyed a meteoric $27 million in sales in its first 24 hours, had a much quieter Saturday. At least 25 percent quieter. As of 10 p.m. (Pacific), I am calling for $19.31 million or so for Hollywood's new Fantastic Four on Day 2, which is impressive, considering that most box-office analysts, including yours truly, had the movie pegged for a $30 million-$35 million opening. It looks like Sunday could add at least $14 million for a truly remarkable $60 million opening weekend.
The truth is that anything over $30 million will be considered a triumph, and the fact that Carrie Bradshaw and friends have a shot at doubling that number is a game-changer in this business. Hollywood has been cranking out the same teen-fueled tent-pole movies summer after summer with an occasional "chick flick" like 2006's The Devil Wears Prada and last year's Hairspray added to the mix. The film business cannot afford to ignore women at the box office when they can rally to create a hit this big.
By Monday morning, Sex and the City will be the biggest opening in film history for a movie headlined by a woman, surpassing Lara Croft: Tomb Raider starring Angelina Jolie, which scored $47.7 million. It is also important to note that these are not ingenues. Sarah Jessica Parker, Kristin Davis and Cynthia Nixon are all in their 40s and Kim Cattrall is 51. To date, the best opening weekend for a movie with a 40-plus actress as the true lead was the 1996 version of 101 Dalmatians, which featured Glenn Close. That family film grabbed $33.5 million in its opening frame.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) received a very generous 57 percent family audience bump on Saturday, and it is in, essentially, a flat-footed tie with Sex and the City for Saturday. I am projecting $19.23 million, which will likely lift IJ4 to $45 million on its second weekend and a new cume of $215.88 million. The first Indy movie in 19 years is playing like a flat-out family film, and I still believe that $315 million domestic is doable.
Rogue's The Strangers, starring Scott Speedman and Liv Tyler, scared up another $7.76 million on Saturday, and the slasher pic is headed for a well-above-expectations $20 million for the weekend. Iron Man (Paramount) continues to impress with an estimated $6.51 million Saturday, which will likely translate to $14.8 million and a staggering new cume of $277.43 million. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) plodded to just $5.86 million on its third Saturday, and it will wrap the three-day with about $13.31 million. With a new cume of just $111.87 million, this very expensive sequel is a longshot to exceed $140 million domestic.
Sex and the City will coast to the best per-theatre average for the weekend with $18,000-plus. U2 3D from National Geographic, in its 19th week in release, will enjoy a great three-day PTA of $12,500 or so at eight locations along with IFC's Savage Grace, starring Julianne Moore, with about the same PTA on two screens. IJ4 appears headed for the 4th-best weekend PTA , followed by the Will Ferrell-produced The Foot Fist Way (Paramount Vantage) with an estimated $9,375 PTA at four locations.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $19.31 million, $5,879 PTA $45.41 million cume
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $19.23 million, $4,515 PTA, $202.36 million cume
3. NEW The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $7.76 million, $3,146 PTA, $15.29 million cume
4. Iron Man (Paramount) — $6.51 million, $1,786 PTA, $272.86 million cume
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $5.86 million, $1,542 PTA, $111.87 million cume
6. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $2.92 million, $948 PTA, $64.34 million cume
7. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $1.21 million, $587 PTA, $40.13 million cume
8. Baby Mama (Universal) — $945,000, $533 PTA, $55.58 million cume
9. Made of Honor (Sony) — $900,000, $472 PTA, $42.5 million cume
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $500,000, $658 PTA, $60.23 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture) — $350,000, $1,296 PTA, $5.24 million cume
12. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $231,000, $487 PTA, $36.86 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $60 million, $18,265 PTA $60 million cume
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $45 million, $10,563 PTA, $215.88 million cume
3. NEW The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $20 million, $8,107 PTA, $20 million cume
4. Iron Man (Paramount) — $14.8 million, $4,057 PTA, $277.43 million cume
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $13.31 million, $3,503 PTA, $115.97 million cume
6. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $7.02 million, $2,277 PTA, $66.25 million cume
7. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $2.56 million, $1,239 PTA, $40.98 million cume
8. Baby Mama (Universal) — $2.22 million, $1,253 PTA, $56.14 million cume
9. Made of Honor (Sony) — $2.12 million, $1,113 PTA, $43.08 million cume
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1.15 million, $1,520 PTA, $60.58 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture) — $730,000, $2,704 PTA, $5.49 million cume
12. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $500,000, $1,055 PTA, $36.98 million cume
SATURDAY 9:00 a.m. (Pacific): Just got off the phone with Warner Bros., and they are reporting a slightly softer $26.9 million for the opening day of Sex and the City (Warner Bros.). Competing studios tell me that the film is very front-loaded, but that Carrie Bradshaw and friends will still finish with an astounding $66.5 million.
Paramount puts Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull at $12.2 million on Friday, which will translate to $42 million, compared to the $46.7 million that I projected last night. When I plug that into my projection model, IJ4 seems headed for $314M domestic.
The Strangers (Rogue) was even stronger than I reported last night, wrapping its opening day with $7.75 million and a likely $20 million for the three-day. Reports of the demise of R-rated slasher pics have, apparently, been greatly exaggerated. Meanwhile, Iron Man (Paramount) is a strong No. 4 with $3.8 million Friday, which should translate to $13.8 million for the three-day. Robert Downey Jr.'s superhero debut seems headed to a projected $307 million domestic. Finally, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Capsian (Disney) rounds out the Top 5 with $3.4 million on Friday and a probable $12.6 million in its third weekend.
FRIDAY 9:15 p.m. (Pacific): This weekend, women are invading America's multiplexes in mind-boggling numbers. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.), adapted from the hit HBO series that launched a decade ago, has scored one of the most amazing openings in the history of film. Starting with 1,100-plus sold-out or near sold-out midnight previews Thursday night, continuing with unthinkably huge matinee business and rampaging through Cosmopolitan-fueled late shows, Sex and the City has grabbed a truly remarkable $28.25 million on opening day. How amazing is this performance? My final prediction, a healthy $35 million, was exactly one-half of the film's likely three-day take at $70 million.
Studio execs all over town are stunned. All week long, the smart money was on a much more modest performance for Michael Patrick King's big-screen adaptation. I have seen the movie, and I think it hits the mark squarely, but I am a guy. And so are most of the studio executives in Hollywood. And so are the majority of the critics who wrote mixed-to-scathing reviews of the movie. Studio honchos, mostly middle-aged men, pointed to 2006's The Devil Wears Prada and last Summer's Hairspray, which both opened with about $28 million, and guessed that Sex could do a little better. The film industry has dramatically underestimated the box-office muscle of the American woman.
Sex and the City stars Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis, all somewhere north of 40 (Cattrall is the quartet's senior citizen at 51), and they are a regular Fantastic Four (sans superpowers). In fact, Sarah Jessica and friends have blown away Angelina Jolie in Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million opening)to become the all-time No. 1 opening for a movie headlined by a woman.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) will be forced to settle for No. 2 on its second weekend. The Steven Spielberg-directed Lucasfilm property managed an estimated $14.15 million on Friday, which will likely translate to a $47.6 million 3-day. With a cume in excess of $218 million by Monday morning, IJ4 will get to $300M domestic without even breaking a sweat. I am projecting a $318 million cume for Harrison Ford's first Indy film in 19 years, and that should provide more than enough incentive to continue the franchise with Shia LeBeouf.
The Strangers (Rogue), an R-rated slasher pic with a disturbing ad campaign, has scored a surprise $6.8 million on Friday. Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman will have landed a nice solid hit with $18.7 million expected by Sunday night.
Iron Man (Paramount) has finally overtaken the lagging The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) in the daily and weekend race. Marvel's first self-financed and self-produced movie grabbed another $3.55 million on Friday, putting it on pace for an excellent $13.1 million. I am now projecting that Robert Downey Jr.'s superhero debut will top out at $305 million domestic. Meanwhile, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian limped to $3.3 million to start the weekend, and it is targeting $12 million for the three-day and a fifth-place finish.
Sex and the City and IJ4 will have the two best per-theatre averages for the weekend. I am tentatively projecting indie release Caregiver to finish third with $9,280 at its lone engagement. IFC's Savage Grace, starring Julianne Moore, is performing well at two locations and seems on track for an $8,669 PTA. War, Inc. (First Look), starring John Cusack, is holding well on its two screens with an $8,525 PTA possible.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $28.25 million, $8,600 PTA $28.25 million cume
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $14.15 million, $3,322 PTA, $185 million cume
3. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $6.8 million, $2,756 PTA, $6.8 million cume
4. Iron Man (Paramount) — $3.55 million, $973 PTA, $266.17 million cume
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $3.3 million, $868 PTA, $105.98 million cume
6. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $1.99 million, $647 PTA, $61.22 million cume
7. Made of Honor (Sony) — $750,000, $394 PTA, $41.71 million cume
8. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $710,000, $343 PTA, $39.12 million cume
9. Baby Mama (Universal) — $620,000, $350 PTA, $54.54 million cume
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $285,000, $375 PTA, $59.71 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture) — $130,000, $481 PTA, $4.89 million cume
12. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $120,000, $253 PTA, $36.6 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $70 million, $21,309 PTA $70 million cume
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $47.6 million, $11,174 PTA, $218.48 million cume
3. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $18.7 million, $7,580 PTA, $18.7 million cume
4. Iron Man (Paramount) — $13.1 million, $3,589 PTA, $275.72 million cume
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $12 million, $3,157 PTA, $114.65 million cume
6. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $6.38 million, $2,070 PTA, $65.61 million cume
7. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $2.73 million, $1,321 PTA, $41.15 million cume
8. Made of Honor (Sony) — $2.51 million, $1,319 PTA, $43.47 million cume
9. Baby Mama (Universal) — $2.1 million, $1,190 PTA, $56.03 million cume
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1 million, $1,316 PTA, $60.42 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture) — $550,000, $2,037 PTA, $5.31 million cume
12. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $420,000, $886 PTA, $36.9 million cume
FRIDAY 4:00 p.m. (Pacific): Sex and the City (Warner Brothers) is outperforming even the most optimistic of box-office forecasts. The estrogen-fueled reunion of Carrie Bradshaw, Samantha Jones, Charlotte York and Miranda Hobbes, in their first big-screen adventure, is nothing short of a phenomenon.
More than 1,100 of the film's 3,285 locations offered 12:01 a.m. screenings Thursday night, and there were a significant number of sellouts. Warner Bros. tells me that Sex and the City sold at least $2.5 million in tickets at midnight preview screenings. Sex started on HBO a decade ago, and it took some time to make the transition to the big screen with writer/director Michael Patrick King at the helm. Despite more than a smattering of disapproval from critics (54 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomates), the movie is a remarkable "two-quadrant blockbuster," scoring with Females Under 25 and Females 25 Plus.
My final prediction was for $35 million, but my sources tell me that I undershot the weekend total for Sex and the City. The movie has a real shot at $20 million for Opening Day (including Thursday 12:01 a.m. screenings), but the film is likely to be very front-loaded, meaning that it will dip on Saturday and dip again on Sunday. One competing studio exec has told me that the weekend total is likely to start with a four, as in $40 million-plus.
Ah, still underestimating it. The opening day is going to be in the $30m range.
Posted by: Yun Xia | May 30, 2008 at 05:31 PM
Do you mean so far today? :P
Posted by: Corpse | May 30, 2008 at 05:58 PM
Well, if my theatre is any indication its headed to a 20-23 million opening day including midnights, that is very good.
Here is what my theatre has done so far with SATC, its on 3 screens:
Screen 2, 11:20am: 10% full, 2:35pm: 55% full, 5:50pm: sold out, 9:10pm: Was about 25 tickets away from being sold out when i got off, so its sold out.
Screen 4, 10:30am: 10% full, 1:45pm: 50% full, 5:00pm: 95% full, 8:20pm: sold out
Screen 5: 12:35pm: 60& full, 3:55pm: 75% full, 7:10pm: sold out, 10:30pm: this was 80% sold when i left, so im sure its old out also.
And the 11pm-12mid shows should also be sold out.
Did decent/good in the day, especially for this kind of film, but it did/is doing spectacular at night. No indication of 30 million OD but im positive it will be in the 20s.
Indy 4 was down 53% down from last friday, Iron Man beat Narnia, it was only down 31% from last friday, Narnia was down 38% from last friday, this is all from last friday until atleast 9:30pm(i got off at 8pm)
Posted by: John | May 30, 2008 at 06:31 PM
Wow. my predict was 45 million and it might beat that by Saturday!
Posted by: JackO | May 30, 2008 at 06:46 PM
Sold out twice at the biggest theater in New Hampshire; could be upwards of $50 million.
Posted by: Sq | May 30, 2008 at 07:30 PM
Seriously -- I mentioned this in Mason's original article, but EVERYONE underestimated how strong this would open tonight and tomorrow night. All the women in my firm could talk about today was Girls' Night Out at the movies.
SATC has a definite shot at 50 million and the weekend BO crown.
Posted by: bernox | May 30, 2008 at 08:46 PM
OMFG. $70M? I did NOT see that coming. That's HUGE. I'm still shocked. It's like the females' "300". Called "The Strangers" break-out performance though. It's been tracking well, good to see it do extremely solid business..especially against another R-rated, similarly targeting movie.
Posted by: Stev | May 30, 2008 at 11:06 PM
I heard tell of a group of women rolling up to a movie theater in a stretch Expedition limo. Sad, but... it goes to show how crazy people are going for this.
Posted by: dranscht | May 30, 2008 at 11:31 PM
Hello all,
My $35M prediction for SEX & THE CITY may have been worst ever. I predicted $35M and it has a chance to hit $70M.
Crazy numbers.
Best, Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | May 31, 2008 at 12:23 AM
Ive had a feeling that Sex and the city would be huge since Thursday when the movie opened to $4 million on wednesday. Thats a big opening on a wednesday, especially for a film that wasnt considered to be a massive blockbuster.
Now, mase you've said that women dont typically rush out to see a film on opening weekend so are you saying that this film might have a decent pair of legs? Is $200 million domestic now a possibility?
Posted by: A.B | May 31, 2008 at 03:37 AM
My above comment is talking about the $4 million Sex and the city opened to on Wednesday here in the U.K. Nearly all my female friends have already gone or our planning to see this with friends, im even going to see this on Tuesday with oher male friends. I think a lot of these male box office predictors have realy underestimated the number of non gay guys that watch the show.
And The Strangers is proof of how much an ad campaign that is genuinely scary can help a horror at the box office. Over on Imdb there has been people on the forums talking about how scary the film looked from the trailers, which has got horror fans excited to see this.
Posted by: A.B | May 31, 2008 at 03:43 AM
I think I just got "Simpsons Movie" deja vu. When that movie opened, it had the similar expectations, and performed very similarly to.
Unfortunately for "Sex," that could mean a potential 60%+ drop next weekend.
Posted by: Ian | May 31, 2008 at 06:03 AM
Well now they've got to make a Sopranos movie.
Posted by: lainiediamond | May 31, 2008 at 07:45 AM
If Sex made so much money, I wonder what a good Lost movie would gross? lol
Posted by: Alex | May 31, 2008 at 07:55 AM
if those numbers hold this wkend will be up almost 35% over last year!!! That is fantastic...with Zohan ready to open with 25-35mill and Panda set for something over 70mill. And then the Hulk already tracking for 50mill....this summer might just catch up with last year
Posted by: nic | May 31, 2008 at 09:00 AM
the big 3 summer movies last year were actually just big openings.
indy4, irmn, tdk will end up with only slightly smaller full run grosses. other movies could make up for that.
also, this time potter movie is in christmas as opposed to summer last year. so 2008 as a whole could catch up to 2007.
Posted by: Abhishek | May 31, 2008 at 10:22 AM
by this weekend, indy4 will be about 4 million off pirates 3's pace(309 million total). it may not break 300 without a sweat.
Posted by: Abhishek | May 31, 2008 at 10:26 AM
I'm honestly stunned that all of you were predicting a 30 million opening, some even less -- it is just puzzling -- because the 26 million it made in my first day is what I truly expected it to do. Guess it's better to surpass expectations than to meet them.
Posted by: jake | May 31, 2008 at 11:33 AM
I applaud the fantastic four femme fatales, simply incredible. 50M would have been phenomenal, Sex is crushing even the most optimistic numbers. OK, so far this summer for big name titles expectation, two surprises: IM & Sex, one met: Indy 4, and two flops: Speed & Narnia. Here's my thought on upcoming expectations, surprises: Hulk & Guru, met: TDK, flops: Happening & Wall-E
Posted by: bhn | May 31, 2008 at 12:31 PM
Yes, I can definitely believe SATC is making that much money - I called it months ago, and Liv Tyler has a big screen appeal in The Strangers. Although, her psycho slasher film is rated 7.6 while SATC is 3.8...c'mon that's complete BS! We all know people who aren't even seeing SATC are rating it low just for the heck of it and that totally throws things off for us.
Posted by: ALS | May 31, 2008 at 12:39 PM
bhn you expect Wall-E to flop? Are you kidding me? Its PIXAR! Good luck with doubting them. I am very interested in how mase is going to cover the tracking for that one.
Posted by: geezer9687 | May 31, 2008 at 01:04 PM
Isn't the 3 day for Indy way too High, a 12.2M Friday should lead to a less than 45M weekend
Posted by: Flashing-Lights | May 31, 2008 at 01:39 PM
Never mind you got it right in the title
Posted by: Flashing-Lights | May 31, 2008 at 01:43 PM
Let's not get ahead of ourselves with talk of Indy breaking $300 million without a sweat. Iron Man didn't have much competition in it's second and third weeks and was very well reviewed by the critics and even more well received by the audience thus leading the a lot of second and third viewings. Don't think Indy has that kind of buzz. Good movie, but not great. Lots of movies competing for the same audience coming out in the next few weeks too.
Posted by: Jim Yelton | May 31, 2008 at 03:29 PM
geezer, Pixar is a terrific brand no doubt about that, however the last two Pixar animations grosses are slipping compared to earlier flicks: Cars - 244M and Ratatouille - 206M, and Rat was a much better movie than Cars yet grosses less. Wall-E will try to break 150M but 200M is far fetch so it'll be consider somewhat disappointing for Disney, plus I've seen some clips, just two robots and not much dialogue, not at all entertaining or interesting...on the other hand Kung Fu Panda looks funner and all the kids appears to be wanting to see it so I think it'll be the animation pic of the summer...
Posted by: bhn | May 31, 2008 at 07:45 PM