20th Century Fox is also expecting a strong Sunday for the Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy, and it appears that What Happens in Vegas, based on that intel, will wrap up its opening weekend with $20.1 million. Made of Honor should also be a prime choice for females today, and Sony now forecasts a $7.6 million second weekend. Meanwhile, Paramount's weekend number for Iron Man is $50.6 million, about $1 million lower than the $51.77 million I called for Saturday night.

FINAL STUDIO-REPORTED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — $50.6 million, $12,308 PTA, $177.23 million cume
2. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $20.2 million, $5,602 PTA, $20.2 million cume
3. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $20.1 million, $6,252 PTA, $20.1 million cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) — $7.6 million, $2,780 PTA, $26.27 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $5.76 million, $2,193 PTA, $40.37 million cume
6. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $5.15 million, $2,275 PTA, $32.71 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $3.77 million, $1,585 PTA, $50.71 million cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1.5 million, $870 PTA, $47.54 million cume
9. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $1.2 million, $750 PTA, $44.13 million cume
10. Prom Night (Sony) — $1.05 million, $717 PTA, $42.82 million cume
11. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $1 million, $769 PTA, 1.09 million cume
12. 21 (Sony) — $835,000, $854 PTA, $80.41 million cume

SATURDAY NIGHT: The superhero debut of Robert Downey Jr. is proving to be among the biggest hits of all time. Marvel's Iron Man (Paramount) has flown above this weekend's expectations, adding an estimated $21.72 million on Saturday, which should translate to approximately $51.79 million for the three-day. If that number holds, this will be the all-time 11th-best second weekend.

Iron Man's estimated 52.5 percent drop is impressive when compared to the 61.5 percent second-weekend stumble suffered by last year's Spider-Man 3, opening on the same May weekend. Mission: Impossible III started the summer blockbuster season in May 2006, and dropped only 48 percent on its second weekend, but its opening three-day was only $47.7 million, about half of Iron Man's impressive weekend one take. The Jon Favreau-directed franchise starter will have pushed past $178 million by Monday morning, and one of the obvious question becomes, "How high can Tony Stark fly?" In a survey of studio sources today, the consensus is that Iron Man will fall short of $300 million domestic, but $275 million-$280 million is likely.

Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) has taken to the track with a sluggish start. The Wachowski Brothers's anime adaptation has received a mixed-at-best critical reaction, and after a softer-than-expected Friday, the candy-colored CGI spectacle received a 31 percent Saturday bounce for an estimated $7.66 million. The film appears headed for a disappointing $18.72 million opening weekend, just enough to outpace What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) for second place. I have been told that Cinema Score surveys give Speed Racer a solid A-, and exit results show strong audience approval and recommend scores. The film is showing strength with family audiences and boys 12-16.

The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas received just a 5 percent increase day-over-day, Friday to Saturday, for a tick over $7 million. The film will finish third for the weekend with an estimated $17.6 million. Holdover Made of Honor (Sony) is No. 4 for the three-day with $7.29 million, followed by Universal's Baby Mama, with about $5.57 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — $21.72 million, $5,285 PTA, $163.66 million cume
2. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $7.66 million, $2,125 PTA, $13.51 million cume
3. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $7.03 million, $2,188 PTA, $13.73 million cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) — $2.98 million, $1,093 PTA, $24.11 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $2.3 million, $878 PTA, $38.8 million cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1.51 million, $636 PTA, $49.65 million cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.25 million, $553 PTA, $29.89 million cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $891,000, $517 PTA, $47.48 million cume
9. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $504,000, $315 PTA, $43.73 million cume
10. Prom Night (Sony) — $411,000, $281 PTA, $42.55 million cume
11. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $395,000, $304 PTA, $810,000 cume
12. 21 (Sony) — $351,000, $359 PTA, $80.17 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — $51.79 million, $12,600 PTA, $178.43 million cume
2. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $18.72 million, $5,193 PTA, $18.72 million cume
3. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $17.6 million, $5,476 PTA, $17.6 million cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) — $7.29 million, $2,667 PTA, $25.96 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $5.57 million, $2,124 PTA, $40.18 million cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $3.58 million, $1,509 PTA, $50.53 million cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $3.1 million, $1,373 PTA, $30.67 million cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $2.02 million, $1,172 PTA, $48.06 million cume
9. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $1.11 million, $694 PTA, $44.04 million cume
10. Prom Night (Sony) — $987,000, $674 PTA, $42.75 million cume
11. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $960,000, $738 PTA, $1.05 million cume

SATURDAY 1 P.M. (Pacific): Just spoke to a studio numbers-cruncher who says that Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) is likely to finish No. 2 for the weekend, although its final three-day opening weekend will be a real disappointment. The early matinee business for the Wachowskis's live-action anime adaptation is up 50 percent-60 percent day-over-day, Friday to Saturday, which gives the film a reasonable shot at $9 million for the day. Still for the weekend, Speed Racer appears headed for about $20 million.

Meanwhile, What Happens in Vegas (Fox) is ticking up 10 percent from opening day and could top $7.1 million today. The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy will have banked about $18 million by Monday morning. Iron Man (Paramount) is having another spectacular day, and the Marvel Studios production has a very good shot at $50 million, and an easy win on its second weekend.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Paramount and Marvel Studios have an Iron-clad hold on America's moviegoers. With its A-list cast and virtually unanimous critical acclaim, Iron Man has seized another $14.75 million on Friday, and the Robert Downey Jr. superhero debut should cruise to an excellent $49 million three-day. Easily the year's biggest hit, the crowd pleaser will likely soar past $175 million by Monday morning.

Earlier in the day, it appeared as though Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) was finding traction with audiences and, at one point, sources indicated that $8 million-$9 million was possible for the day. Unfortunately, business slowed and the candy-colored CGI spectacular was only able to chase down $6.5 million. At the moment, I am projecting $23 million, but that number will depend on how the film plays with families and the 12-16 set on Saturday afternoon.

It may be popular to pile on the Wachowskis and Speed Racer, but I am a fan of the movie, and I know I am not alone. It is a completely original work, as we have come to expect from these true film auteurs, and, although I agree that it is on the long side, it is consistently entertaining. I am not a film critic, but David Poland has has perfectly captured my feelings in his excellent review. And though Speed Racer may be a disappointment domestically, it will play very well internationally. The movie's anime origins and the presence of Asian pop star Rain will almost certainly make it among the top-grossing films of the year in key markets like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China.

What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) is also falling short of expectations, finishing third for the day, and likely for the weekend. Despite the attractive pairing of Cameron Diaz and Ashton Kutcher, the comedy managed only $6.25 million on Friday, and it will likely top out at $17.3 million or so for the weekend. That would make it only the all-time ninth-best opening for Diaz, and the all-time sixth-best for Kutcher. Sony's Made of Honor is No. 4 for the day with $2.61 million, which should translate to $7.83 million for its second weekend. Baby Mama (Universal) rounds out the Top 5 with just under $2 million on Friday and a likely $5.84 million for the three-day, pushing its cume past $40 million.

As I wrote early this week in a story I titled A Mamet Miscalculation, David Mamet's Redbelt never had a chance. Sony Classics opted for a wide release instead of a steady platform plan, and the result will be  even worse than anticipated. Despite solid reviews and a terrific performance from two-time Golden Globe nominee Chiwetal Ejiofor, Redbelt only sold $320,000 in tickets on Friday on over 1,300 screens, and it will fail to reach $1 million for the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — 4,111 locations, $11,919 PTA
2. NEW The Fall (Roadside Attractions) — 9 locations, $7,444 PTA
3. Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — 15 locations, $6,867 PTA
4. NEW Bloodline (Cinema Libre) — 1 location, $6,426 PTA
5. NEW Surfwise (Magnolia) — 1 location, $6,386 PTA
6. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — 3,606 locations, $6,378 PTA
7. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — 3,215 locations, $5,384 PTA
8. NEW Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) — 9 locations, $4,778 PTA
9. NEW America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) — 1 location, $4,704 PTA
10. NEW The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) — 1 location, $4,183 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — $14.75 million, $3,588 PTA, $141.38 million cume
2. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $6.5 million, $1,803 PTA, $6.5 million cume
3. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $6.25 million, $1,944 PTA, $6.25 million cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) — $2.61 million, $955 PTA, $21.2 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $1.98 million, $755 PTA, $36.5 million cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1.32 million, $558 PTA, $48.2 million cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.23 million, $547 PTA, $28.7 million cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $525,000, $305 PTA, $46.5 million cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) — $490,000, $334 PTA, $42.2 million cume
10. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $320,000, $233 PTA, $415,000 cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $305,000, $191 PTA, $43.2 million cume
12. 21 (Sony) — $240,000, $245 PTA, $79.8 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) — $49 million, $11,919 PTA, $175.63 million cume
2. NEW Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $23 million, $6,378 PTA, $23 million cume
3. NEW What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $17.31 million, $5,384 PTA, $17.31 million cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) — $7.83 million, $2,865 PTA, $26.5 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $5.84 million, $2,226 PTA, $40.5 million cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $4.18 million, $1,758 PTA, $51.1 million cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $3.71 million, $1,640 PTA, $31.2 million cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1.89 million, $1,096 PTA, $47.9 million cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) — $1.39 million, $953 PTA, $43.1 million cume
10. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $1.28 million, $800 PTA, $44.2 million cume
11. 21 (Sony) — $744,000, $761 PTA, $80.3 million cume
12. Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $880,000, $450 PTA, $975,000 cume