SUNDAY 9 p.m. (Pacific): The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) did not receive the hoped-for strong Sunday reflected in studio estimates, settling for an estimated $14.81 million. That will give the Walden Media-produced sequel a likely $54.41 million opening weekend. The rest of the studio estimates seem to be in line, although Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) appears to have managed a stronger-than-expected $2.75 million Sunday, which could push its second weekend to a fractionally larger, but still moribund $8.2 million

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SUNDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $14.81 million, $3,772 PTA, $54.41 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $9.45 million, $2,275 PTA, $222.84 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $3.38 million, $1,040 PTA, $40 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $2.75 million, $764 PTA, $30.36 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $1.17 million, $418 PTA, $33.8 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $1.13 million, $452 PTA, $47.24 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $804,000, $501 PTA, $55.2 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $548,000, $391 PTA, $40 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $340,000, $341 PTA, $50.33 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $205,000, $915 PTA, $3.38 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $201,000, $225 PTA, $45.26 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $135,000, $916 PTA, $1.49 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $54.41 million, $13,851 PTA, $54.41 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $31.55 million, $7,596 PTA, $222.84 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $13.53 million, $4,158 PTA, $40 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $8.2 million, $2,274 PTA, $30.36 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $4.6 million, $1,635 PTA, $33.8 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $4.58 million, $1,832 PTA, $47.24 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $2.67 million, $1,668 PTA, $55.2 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.88 million, $1,342 PTA, $40 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1.03 million, $1,038 PTA, $50.33 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $665,000, $2,969 PTA, $3.38 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $602,000, $673 PTA, $45.26 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $455,000, $3,074 PTA, $1.49 million cume

SUNDAY 1 p.m. (Pacific): Studios reported numbers today that are very close to the figures I projected last night. Everything was just a a few percentage points off, but I think Disney and Walden Media may have been a bit overly optimistic about the way The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian will perform today. 2005's The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe dropped 32 percent Saturday-to-Sunday, but the studio estimate for Prince Caspian is for a 16 percent drop. I suspect when I release Sunday projections tonight, they will show a steeper drop and the final weekend actual will be closer to the $55 million that I published last night.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $56.57 million, $14,398 PTA, $55.57 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $31.2 million, $7,510 PTA, $222.48 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $13.85 million, $4,254 PTA, $40.3 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $7.64 million, $2,120 PTA, $29.81 million cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) — $4.59 million, $1,834 PTA, $47.25 million cume
6. Made of Honor (Sony) — $4.5 million, $1,598 PTA, $33.7 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $2.53 million, $1,585 PTA, $55.06 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.8 million, $1,282 PTA, $33.9 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1 million, $997 PTA, $50.29 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $687,000, $3,066 PTA, $3.4 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $580,000, $648 PTA, $45.24 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $528,000, $3,567 PTA, $1.57 million cume

SATURDAY 11 p.m. (Pacific): As I first reported late Friday afternoon, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) is off to a softer-than-expected start. Instead of a huge Friday-to-Saturday increase, the film received a more modest 6 percent boost for a $20.45 million Saturday. That will translate to no better than a $55 million three-day, representing a 16 percent dip from the $65 million opening generated by 2005's The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

The industry was looking for an $80 million-or-better opening, and my forecast was for $74 million-$77 million. Prince Caspian seemed like a safe bet to open bigger than it's predecessor. First sequels in major franchises usually deliver better opening weekends than franchise starters:

The Mummy (1999) — $43.3 million opening
The Mummy Returns (2001) — $68.1 million opening
The Matrix (1999) — $27.7 million opening
The Matrix Reloaded (2003) — $48.4 million opening
X-Men (2000) — $54.4 million opening
X2: X-Men United (2003) — $85.5 million opening
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) — $47.2 million opening
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002) — $62 million opening
Shrek (2001) — $42.3 million opening
Shrek 2 (2004) — $108 million opening
The Bourne Identity (2002) — $27.1 million opening
The Bourne Supremacy (2004) — $52.5 million opening
Ice Age (2002) — $46.3 million opening
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown (2006) — $68 million opening
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003) — $46.6 million opening
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) — $135.6 million opening
Fantastic Four (2005) — $56 million opening
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — $58 million opening

There are, however, two notable exceptions. In 2001, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone logged a $90.2 million opening, while its follow-up, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, checked in slightly lower at $88.3 million. And while 2002's Spider-Man opened with $114.8 million, its 2004 sequel settled for $88.1 million (although that was after scoring $64.25 million on Wednesday, June 30 and Thursday, July 1).

My sources have suggested a number of possible reasons for the disappointing launch of Prince Capsian. Although reviews have been generally positive, many critics have mentioned that the film is darker than the original and has some extended battle sequences. Also, the faith-based marketing that drove The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe to its huge opening number seemed to get less traction this time around. Some churches have apparently backed off on participation in movie marketing because their congregations have become resentful of being overtly "used" to drive ticket sales.

By no means will this film be considered a commercial flop. In fact, most of the studio types I have spoken to this weekend still believe that Prince Caspian has a real chance to reach $175 million-$200 million domestic. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Reader is set for May 7, 2010, and Walden and Disney still have tentative plans for four more C.S. Lewis-based films, with the finale, The Last Battle, potentially arriving in the summer of 2018.

Marvel's Iron Man (Paramount) soared to another $13.24 million Saturday, and it will finish the weekend with an estimated $31.11 million. That's an excellent hold, down only 40 percent from last weekend. With a new cume of $222.4 million, it is beginning to look like Tony Stark and his alter ego will make a strong run at $300 million domestic.

The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) is holding solidly with a $5.56 million second Saturday. That will mean a three-day of just under $14 million and a new cume just over $40 million. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) got a Saturday family bounce for $3.7 million, but it will still manage only $8.1 million or so for the weekend. The Waschowski Brothers's anime-inspired, candy-colored epic will have banked only an estimated $30 million by Monday morning. Sony's Made of Honor rounds out the Top 5 with $2 million on Saturday and a $4.82 million weekend.

Joachim Trier's Reprise (Miramax) is the top Per Theater performer of the weekend. The Norwegian arthouse offering, already a winner of three Amanda Awards (which recognize film excellence in Norway), including Best Picture, should finish the weekend with a $15,333 PTA on three screens, holding off Prince Caspian, which will likely average just under $14,000 at each of its 3,929 locations.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $20.45 million, $5,207 PTA, $39.75 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $13.24 million, $3,188 PTA, $213.12 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $5.56 million, $1,710 PTA, $36.62 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $3.7 million, $1,026 PTA, $27.86 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $2 million, $710 PTA, $32.72 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $1.98 million, $792 PTA, $46.14 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1.07 million, $668 PTA, $54.39 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $750,000, $535 PTA, $33.43 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $430,000, $431 PTA, $50 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $300,000, $1,339 PTA, $3.17 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $261,000, $292 PTA, $45 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $205,000, $1,385 PTA, $1.36 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $55 million, $13,998 PTA, $55 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $31.11 million, $7,490 PTA, $222.4 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $13.95 million, $4,286 PTA, $40.4 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $8.1 million, $2,248 PTA, $30.27 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $4.82 million, $1,713 PTA, $34 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $4.66 million, $1,867 PTA, $47.33 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $2.51 million, $1,568 PTA, $55 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.74 million, $1,246 PTA, $33.84 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $980,000, $983 PTA, $50.27 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $675,000, $3,013 PTA, $3.39 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $565,000, $632 PTA, $45.23 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $465,000, $3,142 PTA, $1.5 million cume
 

SATURDAY 8 a.m. (Pacific): Disney is reporting $19.3 million for the opening day of Prince Caspian, slightly better than the $18 million I reported last night. If it performs the same way The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe did, then the Walden Media-produced sequel should finish the weekend with a $55 million opening. That would still be a 16 percent dip from the earlier film's $65 million start. Meanwhile, Paramount is reporting $8.6 million for Iron Man, a bit less than the $9.25 million I projected Friday night. That should translate to a still-spectacular $32 million third weekend for Marvel's first self-produced, self-financed feature. 

FRIDAY 10 p.m. (Pacific): Walden Media's The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) has failed to match the $23 million opening day of 2005's The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, managing only $18 million on Friday. The second of what could be seven films based on C.S. Lewis's Christian-themed Narnia novels will likely finish the weekend with an estimated $51.3 million. (I am using a 2.85 IMO, which is the muliplier for the first Narnia film.) If the number holds, that will be 22 percent less than the first Narnia installment.

Theater owners and most of the so-called box-office "experts" were looking for an $80 million-or-better opening weekend, and I called for $74 million-$77 million, so Prince Caspian is a distinct disappointment. Industry tracking pointed toward a stronger opening, and execs from competing studios have theories about why the new Narnia has opened soft. Despite generally positive reviews (69 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), many critics have mentioned that the movie is darker than the first, with some extended battle sequences, which could be a contributing factor. Also, one source tells me that the faith-based marketing effort was less effective this time around.

Reclusive Christian billionaire Phillip Anschutz is the money and driving force behind the Narnia films. Anschutz, who's worth at least $5 billion, began as an oilman before moving on to railroads and telecommunications. He has invested heavily in sports and entertainment for the last decade. His Anschutz Entertainment Group now owns more sports teams and events than any company in the world, and AEG also owns stadiums and arenas like Staples Center in Los Angeles, the Nokia Theatre in Times Square and the O2 in London. The maverick also bought up troubled movie theater chains United Artists, Edwards Theaters and Regal Cinemas, and he now controls more movie screens than any other company. Before jumping into filmmaking six years ago, he told an associate that he wanted to be "doing something significant in American Christianity."

The next chapter of The Chronicles of Narnia, titled The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, is already in production with director Michael Apted at the helm. Dawn Treader is set to voyage into theaters on May 7, 2010, and if Walden Media follows with another sequel every two years, then the franchise capper, The Last Battle, would hit theaters in 2018. Prince Caspian's weaker-than-expected opening puts this "master plan" in question.

Almost as surprising as Prince Caspian's slow start is the spectacular third-weekend performance of Iron Man (Paramount). Marvel's first self-produced, self-financed feature seized another $9.25 million Friday as the movie soared past $200 million. That will likely translate to a phenomenal $33 million for the three-day, representing just a 35 percent drop from last weekend. Iron Man is now a solid bet to reach $300 million domestic.

The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) added an estimated $4.65 million Friday, and it will be a solid No. 3 for the weekend with $13.75 million or so. That is an excellent performance, down just 32 percent from opening weekend, and points to a new cume, by Monday morning, of $40.2M.

Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) slowed to $2.4 million on its second Friday, and it will manage only an estimated $8.1 million, down 57 percent from last weekend. The Wachowski Bros. anime-inspired epic will have banked only $30.2 million domestic by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Sony's Made of Honor is No. 5, with $1.65 million Friday and a likely $5.3 million for the three-day. The Patrick Dempsey vehicle will be just shy of $35 million domestic by the end of the weekend.

Joachim Trier's Reprise (Miramax) will probably be the top Per Theater performer of the weekend. The Norwegian arthouse offering, already a winner of three Amanda Awards (which recognize film excellence in Norway), including Best Picture, should finish the weekend with a $13,300 PTA on three screens, holding off Prince Caspian, which will likely average $13,000 at each of its 3,929 locations.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $18 million, $4,581 PTA, $18 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $9.25 million, $2,227 PTA, $200.5 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $4.65 million, $1,429 PTA, $31.1 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $2.4 million, $666 PTA, $24.5 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $1.65 million, $586 PTA, $30.8 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $1.36 million, $545 PTA, $44 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $775,000, $483 PTA, $53.3 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $560,000, $399 PTA, $32.6 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $250,000, $251 PTA, $49.5 million cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $160,000, $714 PTA, $2.8 million cume
11. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $140,000, $157 PTA, $44.8 million cume
12. Prom Night (Sony) — $125,000, $222 PTA, $43.1 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $51.3 million, $13,057 PTA, $51.3 million cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) — $33 million, $7,944 PTA, $224.3 million cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $13.75 million, $4,224 PTA, $40.2 million cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $8.1 million, $2,246 PTA, $30.2 million cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) — $5.3 million, $1,882 PTA, $34.5 million cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) — $4.48 million, $1,793 PTA, $47.1 million cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $2.5 million, $1,561 PTA, $55 million cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $1.63 million, $1,166 PTA, $33.7 million cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1 million, $1,005 PTA, $50.2 million cume
10. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $680,000, $761 PTA, $45.3 million cume
11. The Visitor (Overture Films) — $650,000, $2,902 PTA, $3.3 million cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $450,000, $3,041 PTA, $1.5 million cume

FRIDAY 6 p.m. (Pacific): Just got off the phone with two competing studios, and they agree that The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) is looking soft. It appears that the sequel to the mega-hit The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is unlikely to get much past $20 million today, and one source has the film headed for $17.5 million. That would be considered a disappointment given that the first Narnia delivered $23 million on opening day. The early three-day estimates range from $51 million-$56 million.

Both sources are forecasting outstanding holds for the third weekend of Iron Man (Paramount). It appears that Marvel's film will top $30 million for a weekend take in the $32 million-$34 million range. That would represent a far smaller drop than anticipated, just 34 percent-38 percent, and I have been told that, if the $30 million number holds, then Iron Man has a real shot at $300 million domestic.