On Wednesday night, I went online with my forecast of $102 million for the Thursday-thru-Sunday period, while Paramount was trying to hold down expectations. Most industry pundits were calling for $75 million-$80 million and fretting about how the release of the Grand Theft Auto IV video game might hurt Iron Man's performance. Studio insiders were never worried about competition from the Xbox 360 and Sony Playstation 3 sensation. Industry tracking showed that audiences were hungry for this one, and the near-perfect critical reception sealed the deal.

If these numbers hold, then Iron Man will be the all-time ninth-best opening in box-office history, the second-best for a non-sequel, trailing only the $114.8 million generated by Spider-Man back in 2002. It is the all-time fourth-best opening for a comic book adaptation, and the all-time fourth-best opening for a superhero movie (in both cases trailing only Spider-Man, Spider-Man 3 and X-Men: The Last Stand). Scroll down to read about the near-certain short-term upside for Marvel shareholders on Monday morning, and the start of Paramount's Billion Dollar Summer.

As expected, Made of Honor (Sony), starring Patrick Dempsey, finished a distant 2nd. The romantic comedy received a modest 10 percent Saturday bump for a $5.94 million second-day take. The three-day for Dr. McDreamy's return to the big screen will likely be just under $15.5 million. The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler fertility comedy Baby Mama (Universal) had a surprisingly solid second weekend with $10.85 million, finishing third. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) will likely narrowly edge Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) for fourth place.

Iron Man will easily win the weekend Per Theatre Average race, with a stellar $23,000 per location. IFC's Mr. Lonely, starring Diego Luna (Y Tu Mama Tambien) and Samantha Morton (In America), will generate an estimated $17,268 at the IFC Center in Manhattan for the second-best weekend PTA. Claude Lelouch's Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) is headed for a $13,500 PTA at two locations, followed by Paramount Vantage's new Son of Rambow at $13,000 per and David Mamet's Redbelt (Sony Classics) at almost $11,000 per.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Iron Man (Paramount) — 4,105 locations, $23,080 PTA
2. NEW Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) — 1 location, $17,268 PTA
3. Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — 2 locations, $13,500 PTA
4. NEW Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) — 5 locations, $13,000 PTA
5. NEW Redbelt (Sony Classics) — 6 locations, $10,833 PTA
6. NEW Viva (Vagrant Films) — 1 location, $8,284 PTA
7. NEW When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) — 1 location, $6,843 PTA
8. NEW Made of Honor (Sony) — 2,729 locations, $5,679 PTA
9. The Visitor (Overture Films) — 76 locations, $5,385 PTA
10. NEW Fugitive Pieces (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — 30 locations, $4,933 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Iron Man (Paramount) — $36.4 million, $8,867 PTA, $74.4 million cume
2. NEW Made of Honor (Sony) — $5.94 million, $2,177 PTA, $11.34 million cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) — $4.52 million, $1,776 PTA, $30 million cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $2.75 million, $960 PTA, $43.3 million cume
5. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $2.62 million, $1,031 PTA, $23.9 million cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $1.8 million, $610 PTA, $43.8 million cume
7. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $1.33 million, $539 PTA, $41.7 million cume
8. Prom Night (Sony) — $1.2 million, $493 PTA, $41 million cume
9. 21 (Sony) — $1.03 million, $462 PTA, $78.6 million cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $770,000, $436 PTA, $15 million cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $660,000, $451 PTA, $149.4 million cume
12. Deception (20th Century Fox) — $385,000, $192 PTA, $3.7 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $320,000, $2,462 PTA, $1.4 million cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $150,000, $1,240 PTA, $839,000 cume
* Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $90,000, $1,500 PTA, $264,000 cume
* NEW Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $70,124, $2,337 PTA, $98,000 cume
* NEW Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) — $29,000, $5,800 PTA, $46,000 cume
* NEW Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $26,000, $4,333 PTA, $48,000 cume
* Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $14,000, $1,273 PTA, $45,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $14,000, $1,167 PTA, $222,000 cume
* Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $12,000, $6,000 PTA, $55,000 cume
* NEW Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) — $7,000, $7,000 PTA, $12,718 cume
* NEW The Edge of Heaven (Strand) — $5,712, $1,904 PTA, $9,216 cume
* NEW Viva (Vagrant Films) — $3,347, $3,347 PTA, $6,208 cume
* NEW When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) — $2,919, $2,919 PTA, $4,946 cume
* War Inc. (Independent) — $2,862, $572 PTA, $22,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Iron Man (Paramount) — $94.74 million, $23,080 PTA, $100.24 million cume
2. NEW Made of Honor (Sony) — $15.49 million, $5,679 PTA, $15.49 million cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) — $10.85 million, $4,260 PTA, $32.8 million cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $6.4 million, $2,251 PTA, $45.1 million cume
5. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $6.3 million, $2,475 PTA, $25.5 million cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $4.16 million, $1,407 PTA, $45 million cume
7. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $2.89 million, $1,170 PTA, $42.6 million cume
8. Prom Night (Sony) — $2.65 million, $1,092 PTA, $41.6 million cume
9. 21 (Sony) — $2.25 million, $1,006 PTA, $79.2 million cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $1.73 million, $980 PTA, $15.5 million cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $1.39 million, $953 PTA, $149.8 million cume
12. Deception (20th Century Fox) — $950,000, $475 PTA, $4 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $700,000, $5,385 PTA, $1.6 million cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $342,000, $2,826 PTA, $953,000 cume
* Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $205,000, $3,417 PTA, $329,000 cume
* NEW Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $148,000, $4,933 PTA, $148,000 cume
* NEW Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) — $65,000- $13,000 PTA, $65,000 cume
* NEW Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $65,000, $10,833 PTA, $65,000 cume
* Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $33,000, $3,000 PTA, $56,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $32,000, $2,667 PTA, $233,000 cume
* Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $27,000, $13,500 PTA, $65,000 cume
* NEW Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) — $17,268, $17,268 PTA, $17,268 cume
* NEW The Edge of Heaven (Strand) — $13,000, $4,333 PTA, $13,000 cume
* NEW Viva (Vagrant Films) — $8,284, $8,284 PTA, $8,284 cume
* War Inc. (Independent) — $7,250, $1,450 PTA, $24,000 cume
* NEW When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) — $6,843, $6,843 PTA, $6,843 cume

SATURDAY 3 P.M. (Pacific): I just got word that Iron Man (Paramount) is running about 30 percent above Friday's meteoric $32.5 million opening. This number will tick down as we move through the evening, but if Marvel's first self-financed feature can manage to stay 12 percent or better than its opening day number, it will have banked $100 million by Monday morning.

In addition to helping to start Paramount's Billion Dollar Summer, Iron Man marks a spectacular debut for Marvel Studios. In the past, the company has licensed its characters to studios. The Spider-Man movies are property of Sony and the X-Men films are property of Fox. They have assumed more risk by financing and producing both Iron Man and June's The Incredible Hulk, but there is also far more upside. Whether this Robert Downey Jr. vehicle breaks the $100 million barrier or not, they have scored a huge victory.

And keep an eye on Marvel stock (MVL) on Monday morning. The company will be riding high with a huge hit movie likely to soar toward $300 million domestic, making an Iron Man sequel a certainty. Also, Marvel will announce earnings, and they have beaten analyst estimates in seven of the past eight quarters. There will definitely be some short term upside for shareholders this week.

Quickly though, Hollywood and Wall Street will begin to focus on Marvel's second film, The Incredible Hulk, starring Edward Norton. Universal is handling distribution for this one, set to be released on June 13. It has been only five years since Ang Lee's artistically ambitious film version starring Eric Bana and Jennifer Connelly met with relative indifference ($132 million domestic/$113 million foreign).

The new trailer for The Incredible Hulk is at the head of Iron Man, and although I like it better than the last trailer, this is still no sure thing. If Marvel makes it two sequel-ready blockbusters in a row,  however, then shareholders will score very big returns.

SATURDAY MORNING: No matter how you look at the numbers, Iron Man (Paramount) is in the stratosphere, but I still believe that this first film from Marvel Studios will reach $100 million for the weekend. My final prediction on Wednesday night was for the John Favreau-directed superhero pic to soar to $102 million from Thursday night previews through Sunday. Some print and internet journalists thought I was crazy, and they were sticking with something more along the lines of $70 million-$80 million.

As it turns out, the extraordinary industry tracking, which showed that Iron Man was outperforming last summer's Transformers in pre-opening audience surveys, has held true. Plus all of the speculation about the new video game release Grand Theft Auto IV dampening the movie's opening weekend performance was, as many studio execs told me, a non-issue.

Paramount now tells me this morning that Iron Man did $32.8 million on Friday, which gets them to $38 million when you add in the $5.2 million from Thursday night reviews. The studio is projecting $95 million by Monday morning. Now the question is whether the film will increase or decrease Friday-to-Saturday. My money is on a slight increase, which will get the picture past $100 million.

There are three reasons why Iron Man can be reasonably be expected to get a Saturday increase. First, at some of the most lucrative megaplexes in the country there were 1 a.m. and 1:15 a.m. screenings of Iron Man added on the fly to handle high demand. All of the ticket sales from these late showings will be added to the Saturday total. Also, Cinema Score exit surveys show that audiences are giving Iron Man A+/A grades across the board. People love the movie, and, in the era of the text message, positive word-of-mouth travels faster than ever. Finally, its PG-13 rating makes it family-friendly, and it should receive a huge matinee bounce today.

It is now safe to say that Iron Man may be headed for $300 million domestic, which will begin Paramount's $1 billion summer with a bang. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull could get to $400 million, followed by an anticipated $200 million domestic for Kung Fu Panda in June, a possible $100 million-plus for Mike Myers's The Love Guru, also in June, and a more certain $100 million-plus for Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder, set for Aug. 15.

FRIDAY NIGHT: After grabbing $5.2 million in Thursday night advance screenings, Iron Man (Paramount) has soared to an estimated $35 million on Friday. With near-perfect reviews, an A-list cast, including Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Terrence Howard and Jeff Bridges, and excellent word-of-mouth, this first film financed by Marvel Studios will likely power to a staggering $91 million-plus by Monday morning, and that's a conservative estimate.

Paramount is on top of the world. This is the first of four guaranteed $100 million blockbusters set for release this summer. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is three weeks away, followed by Kung Fu Panda on June 6, and Ben Stiller's Tropic Thunder, again starring Robert Downey Jr., on Aug. 15. This run of box-office success will likely drive Paramount to a $1 billion dollar summer and make the Melrose gang Hollywood's No. 1 grossing studio for a second consecutive year.

A $100 million opening is still a distinct possibility for Iron Man. That $35 million Friday apparently includes the portion of the $5.2 million Thursday preview business that came after midnight. If the film can pull huge family audiences on Saturday, and come in with another $35 million-plus, it will likely break the $100 million barrier.

Billionaire Tony Stark and his alter ego are no match for last year's May "threequels," Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Shrek the Third, which all topped $114 million-plus in their opening weekends. Still, Iron Man will likely go down as at least the twelfth-best three-day opening of all time, and the second-best opening ever for a non-sequel, trailing only the original Spider-Man. Plus, Iron Man cracks the All-Time Top 10 Openings for Comic Book Adaptations at No. 4:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION OPENINGS
1. Spider-Man 3 — $151.1 million
2. Spider-Man — $114.8 million
3. X-Men: The Last Stand — $102.7 million
4. Iron Man — $91 million (Estimated)
5. X2: X-Men United — $85.5 million
6. Spider-Man 2 — $88.1 million
7. 300 — $70.8 million
8. Fantastic Four — $56 million
9. X-Men — $54.4 million
10. Superman Returns — $52.5 million

Sony's poorly reviewed romantic comedy Made of Honor, starring Patrick Dempsey, has limped out of the starting gate with a disappointing $5.5 million on opening day. With a projected weekend take of only $15.7 million, this film will not do much to burnish Dempsey’s big-screen resume.

Holdover Baby Mama (Universal) added $3.5 million Friday, and it should finish the frame with $10.3 million or so, down 41 percent, but good enough for third place. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) generated $1.7 million Friday, and it will likely make $5.7 million for the weekend, finishing fourth. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) managed just $2 million on its second Friday, and it is headed for a three-day of $5.4 million, representing a 64 percent drop.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Iron Man (Paramount) — $35M, $8,526 PTA, $37 million cume
2. NEW Made of Honor (Sony) — $5.5M, $2,015 PTA, $5.5 million cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) — $3.5M, $1,374 PTA, $25.4 million cume
4. NEW Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $2M, $786 PTA, $21.2 million cume
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $1.7M, $593 PTA, $40.3 million cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $975,000, $329 PTA, $41.8 million cume
7. Prom Night (Sony) — $720,000, $296 PTA, $39.6 million cume
8. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $620,000, $250 PTA, $40.4 million cume
9. 21 (Sony) — $570,000, $254 PTA, $77.5 million cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $390,000, $221 PTA, $14.2 million cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $310,000, $212 PTA, $148.7 million cume
12. Deception (20th Century Fox) — $200,000, $100 PTA, $3.3 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $123,000, $946 PTA, $1 million cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $54,000, $446 PTA, $665,000 cume
* Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $29,000, $547 PTA, $153,000 cume
* NEW Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $17,670, $589 PTA, $17,670 cume
* NEW Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $15,894, $2,649 PTA, $15,894 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $12,000, $1,500 PTA, $213,000 cume
* NEW Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) — $9,290, $1,858 PTA, $9,290 cume
* Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $6,000, $600 PTA, $29,000 cume
* Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $3,852, $3,852 PTA, $42,000 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $3,029, $1,514 PTA, $113,000 cume
* NEW Viva (Vagrant Films) — $2,716, $2,716 PTA, $2,716 cume
* NEW When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) — $2,027, $2,027 PTA, $2,027 cume
* War Inc. (Independent) — $880, $880 PTA, $17,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Iron Man (Paramount) — $91M, $22,168 PTA, $84 million cume
2. NEW Made of Honor (Sony) — $15.7M, $5,753PTA, $15.7 million cume
3. Baby Mama (Universal) — $10.5M, $4,121 PTA, $32.4 million cume
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $5.7M, $1,987PTA, $44.3 million cume
5. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) — $5.4M, $2,122 PTA, $24.6 million cume
6. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) — $3.41M, $1,153 PTA, $44.3 cume
7. Nim's Island (20th Century Fox) — $2.38M, $963 PTA, $42.1 million cume
8. Prom Night (Sony) — $1.98M, $813 PTA, $40.9 million cume
9. 21 (Sony) — $1.79M, $801 PTA, $78.7 million cume
10. 88 Minutes (Sony) — $1.34M, $762 PTA, $15.1 million cume
11. Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) — $1.19M, $816 PTA, $149.6 million cume
12. Deception (20th Century Fox) — $610,000, $305 PTA, $3.7 million cume
* The Visitor (Overture Films) — $535,000, $4,115 PTA, $1.5 million cume
* Young@Heart (Fox Searchlight) — $235,000, $1,942 PTA, $846,000 cume
* Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) — $111,000, $2,094 PTA, $235,000 cume
* NEW Fugitive Pieces (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $68,000, $2,267 PTA, $68,000 cume
* NEW Redbelt (Sony Classics) — $56,000, $9,333 PTA, $56,000 cume
* The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) — $46,000, $5,750 PTA, $247,000 cume
* NEW Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) — $34,000- $6,800 PTA, $34,000 cume
* Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics) — $21,000, $2,100 PTA, $44,000 cume
* Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) — $13,481- $13,481 PTA, $51,000 cume
* Ben X (Equinoxe) — $10,297, $5,149 PTA, $120,000 cume
* NEW Viva (Vagrant Films) — $8,148, $8,148 PTA, $8,148 cume
* NEW When Love Begins (ABS-CBN) — $6,081, $6,081 PTA, $6,081 cume
* War Inc. (Independent) — $2,596, $2,596 PTA, $19,000 cume