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June 10, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: Shrykespeare in Love or Why Pixar Is the Surest Thing in 2008 This Side of 'The Dark Knight'

by Shrykespeare

Hello all, and welcome back to Bard's Eye View, where I, your watchful warrior of weekend wonders, attempt to point you, like a wind-driven weather vane, in the right direction ... at least as far as high-dollar releases go. We are in the throes of another blockbuster season, and though we've already had some very good outings, I have high hopes that the best of the best is yet to come. And I think most of you know which films I'm talking about! (Note: Anyone who says "Beverly Hills Chihuahua, right?" at this point had better be prepared to be blow-gunned in the neck. Wink.)

It's already been an interesting summer, hasn't it? Iron Man has enraptured audiences, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian has failed to recapture the commercial magic of its predecessor, and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull has proved, once and for all, that old franchises never die, they just get wrinklier and infinitely more CGI-ed. Additionally, Sex and the City and The Strangers have proven, respectively, that chick flicks DO have a place in the summer landscape, and R-rated horror flicks are not necessarily dead (heh) on arrival.

It's nearly impossible, in this business, to call anything an absolute, guaranteed hit. But if you go by the last 10 years, there are two things that seem to be a lead-pipe cinch more than anything else, one of which I will talk about today. (If you can't figure out the other one, don't sweat it, you'll only need to wait a week to find out, hint, hint.) For today, I'll be discussing the two films slated for release on the final weekend of this month, June 27-29, including what I hope is the latest visual and storytelling masterpiece from Pixar.

Yes, fans, the arrival of WALL-E in theaters is only a short distance away, and while I usually avoid setting my own personal bar TOO high before entering a theater, how can I not in this case? Pixar's track record in the last 13 years has been nothing short of PHENOMENAL. Since the release of Toy Story back in 1995, Pixar's eight major films have grossed a staggering $1.9 billion in the United States. That's an average of nearly $240 million per picture, folks. More than that, however ... these films, much like the classic Disney movies of old, remain to this day some of the most beloved and watched movies of all time.

A Bug's Life, which came out in 1998, represents the low watermark for Pixar in terms of both dollars earned and IMDb User Rating: $162 million and a 7.3. Yes, folks, that's their worst picture ever. Six of their eight films have broken $200 million, and one, Finding Nemo, earned a whopping $339 million. And if you check IMDb's list of the Top 250 rated films of all time, you'll find no fewer than FIVE Pixar films on that list, all with a ranking of 8.0 or higher.

These people are masters of their craft. They not only know what we want to see, but how we want to see it. They know when a theme is getting close to played out (like films centered on animals), and therefore when to change direction. They know that the messages that their films deliver resonate with audiences of all ages, and will continue to do so for all time. Not to mention, the technology that goes into creating their smorgasbord of visual delights is not only state-of-the-art but groundbreaking, revolutionary, and world-changing. No detail is ever spared, no corner is ever cut, not one cel or millisecond of film is ever wasted. And that, folks, is why they are the best, and why DreamWorks and Sony Pictures Entertainment will always be runners-up.

I don't give a "10" to many films, say, two or three every year, tops, but I have given Pixar's last three films (The Incredibles, Cars, Ratatouille) that rating. And the reason for this is actually very simple: the characters. And that may be Pixar's greatest gift of all. No matter how breathtaking the animation is, or the trillion-pixel panoramic views, or the sound quality, the movies are always, ALWAYS more about the characters than about anything else: how they are presented, how they develop, and how we, in the audience, take every step of their journeys with them, whether they be a family of superheroes, talking cars, or a rat who wants to be a gourmet chef.

So, obviously, anything less than a 10 out of WALL-E  would be, for me, a huge disappointment. Thankfully, from what I've heard about this film, I have nothing to worry about. I have tried to remain blissfully unaware of how the story progresses beyond its first act, and I am grateful that the trailers and clips that I have seen do not include anything beyond basic introduction and a few teasers. The story: 700 years in the future, the Earth has become one great big garbage dump, and humankind has left the planet for (literally) greener pastures. Before leaving, however, the largest corporation on Earth arranged for a fleet of robots to clean up the mess, a task that, after several hundred years, has been abandoned by everyone assigned to it except for a solitary, still-functioning bot.

This lone robot, a Waste Allocation Load Lifter, Earth-class (the acronym for which, of course, is WALL-E), has continued, for centuries, to follow its programming: to collect, compact and stack the Earth's garbage into neat, easily-disposable cubes, cleaning up the mess so that humanity can one day return. Except ... over the years, unaided and unsupervised, WALL-E has developed a very human trait: curiosity. Fiddling with common objects he finds in the trash (common to us, but a complete mystery to him), he continues to do his job, realizing more and more just how lonely he is.

And then, it happens: A rocket ship lands on Earth, bearing another robot called EVE (who, I'm guessing, for all intents and purposes, is supposed to be female), and WALL-E instantly falls in love with her. But just as their "relationship" starts to burgeon, EVE is recalled by her own programming, and WALL-E decides to, gulp, abandon his post in order to chase after her. From there, the plot is a mystery.

While there seems to be a certain fairy-tale aspect to this film, with this most unconventional of heroes battling various dragons in order to save his lady fair from the castle keep, what I've heard is that there is something much, MUCH more wondrous and spectacular going on. That even once you get past the very notion of the existence of a lovesick robot, truly a very small picture on the galactic scale, there will end up being an undercurrent that could very well shape the fabric of the entire universal tapestry.

I know, I don't often go this in-depth about the story line of any given film, but this is Pixar we're talking about, after all. This studio that has more than earned my admiration, respect and devotion, a half-dozen times over, and I'll wager there are millions of others out there who feel the same way. "Run-of-the-mill" just isn't in their vocabulary. And the day THAT ceases to be true, should it ever come, will be a sad, sad day, not just for me, or for filmgoers, but for everyone. Because we NEED stories like this. Period.

I always try to answer two questions about every movie I talk about in my columns: 1) "Will it be a good movie?", and 2) "Will it be a good pick?" Well, as it pertains to WALL-E, you needn't have digested this column to know my answer to No. 1 (but thanks for reading anyway, wink). No. 2, however, it considerably more difficult to answer. Fantasy Moguls predicts 12 Top 5 points, seven PTA, a rating of 7.9 and $180 million in box office.

Well, it's reasonable to assume that WALL-E will finish No. 1 on its opening weekend, drop to second place the following weekend with the release of Hancock, and probably slip to third the weekend after that, when Hellboy II: The Golden Army is released, so that's 12 Top 5 points right there. It may hang on in the Top 5 one additional week, but probably not after that. I envision around 10 PTA, and a User Rating up around 8.0 is certainly not unreasonable. I expect, however, that WALL-E will make $180 million in its first 10 days, not over its entire run. My guess is that Fantasy Moguls's estimate is based on Pixar's last two outings having stalled out short of $250 million, plus the fact that a great portion of the early part of this film is shown with virtually no spoken language, only WALL-E's robotic chirps, beeps and whirrs.

But don't let that deter you. The movie's futuristic setting makes it more tantalizing on paper than Cars or Ratatouille, and having a robot as the hero makes it eminently more marketable to kids than going with a talking car or culinary rat. (I understand that there is a whole array of WALL-E-inspired toys ready to hit shelves over the next six months.) Plus, remember that Pixar films tend to stay in theaters for a long, LONG time. I predict that it will close out with just over $300 million, becoming Pixar's second-biggest grosser ever, and finishing No. 2, behind only The Dark Knight, in the tally of the biggest films of summer, even ahead of IJ4 and Iron Man.  Though priced at a robust $38 in Ultimate ($35 in Box Office), this film will not let you down. Will it be as good a pick as The Dark Knight? Wooph. Even I can't make that call right now.

So now, we spare a moment for the OTHER film coming out June 27, Wanted, a balls-out action film that was originally scheduled to be released in March. Only, someone at Universal decided it would make more noise in summer. A risky move, to be sure. Can a film even as slam-bang as this one apparently is be heard over the cannon fire of the summer's big guns? That is the question.

Wanted tells the tale of Wesley Gibson (played by Atonement star James McAvoy), a disaffected, apathetic cubicle dweller living a humdrum and completely unfulfilling existence. Then, after his estranged father is unexpectedly murdered, Wes is approached by a sexy, femme fatale-ish woman named Fox (played by Angelina Jolie). Jeez, couldn't they have come up with a less adolescent name? Anyway, Wes finds out that his father was, in fact, an elite assassin employed by a secret society called The Fraternity, and Fox, along with The Fraternity's leader (the always awesome Morgan Freeman), proceeds to train the new kid in the arts of killing, stealth and flouting the laws of physics.

Based on that description, Wanted sounds a bit like the completely ignored British teen espionage flick Alex Rider: Stormbreaker, perhaps crossed with the TV's Chuck ... which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. What inspires even less confidence is the fact the film is rated R, for, among other things, "strong bloody violence throughout." It is directed by Russian helmer Timur Bekmambetov, who in recent years has brought the well-crafted horror/fantasy films Night Watch and Day Watch to American soil. Given what I've seen of his work, I'm sure that the effects will be cool, the dialogue crisp and the action fierce. I'm just not sure it will be enough.

Honestly, this looks to me to be not much more than last fall's Shoot 'Em Up, albeit garbed in much sexier clothing. I'm sure it will fare much better than THAT disaster, but better enough to make it worth your dime? Fantasy Moguls has it earning seven Top 5 points (that is the absolute most it will make), three PTA (ditto), a User Rating of 6.6 and $70 million in receipts. Despite the fact that some of my fellow Moguls think it's a shoo-in to break $100 million, I just can't see it. It should have a decent opening weekend, perhaps $25-$35 million, but I expect it to tail off pretty quickly after that. Hancock and Will Smith will shove Wanted to the back burner in only its second weekend, and by the time The Dark Knight hits theaters, this film will already be relegated to twice-a-day status in whatever theater that is still showing it. For $19, take Get Smart, it's got WAY more potential.

PROPS DEPARTMENT: Congratulations to NSpannaus, brockster, dranscht, and annyonggob888 for their victories in the just-completed Round Three of the various Super League tournaments. The two half-year events (Ultimate and Box Office) are starting to get really cutthroat, as more than half of the original field has already been cut! Kudos also go to BarcaRulz, who look first place in the March Ultimate Regulars League Springflix, his first ever Regulars victory, just ahead of hot newbie Donte77. And finally, a slap on the back to dranscht (yes, again), for his monster victory in the March Box Office League Fighting Words, easily outdistancing the rest of the field with over $680 million earned. Well done, everybody!

The June-August season may be underway, but, believe it or not, there is STILL time to get into the 2nd-Half Half-Year Super League tournaments. You may have missed out on Kung Fu Panda and You Don't Mess with the Zohan, but there are plenty of good choices still to be had! We are just a scant few players shy of filling those 100 available spots, and if you need further motivation, let me remind you: This is your last chance to enter a Super League tournament until January 2009, so if you haven't entered by June 15, you'll have to wait another six months! Don't let that happen!

Well, that's all I have for you for this week. Next week, I'll cover two more summer films coming in early July: over the Independence Day weekend, we have our third superhero flick in as many months ... but this one isn't based on a character from Marvel, or DC, or Dark Horse, or any comic book at all for that matter. It's Hancock, a truly antihero-hero brought to us by director Peter Berg and played by the Legend-ary Will Smith, who is sure to continue his streak of umpteen blockbusters in a row. On the following weekend, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, which IS based on an actual comic book, reunites the big red guy (played by Ron Perlman) and director Guillermo Del Toro for a second time.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare is thinking about changing his name to FALL-E ... Film Allocation Language Lifter, Earth-class. It's either that or Frida. Send your thoughts to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Posted at 07:36 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

I'd have to qualify your calling Night Watch and Day Watch "well-crafted." While they might have been well-crafted technically, in terms of story and acting they left a whole lot to be desired.

Posted by: counthaku | June 10, 2008 at 08:44 AM

You gave Cars and Ratatouille perfect 10's? Maybe I shouldn't be taking your advice.

Posted by: Soto | June 10, 2008 at 12:53 PM

You mean you were taking my advice before? SCORE!!!

Yes, I did. Loved both of them to death.

(I notice you didn't mention The Incredibles, so I'll just assume you feel the same way I do about that one.)

Posted by: Shrykespeare | June 10, 2008 at 05:00 PM

Much as I love Ratatouille, I feel it's a bit over-praised, especially when Cars gets nothing but flak. I wouldn't say Ratatouille is a perfect film; close, but not quite. I might rate Cars 10/10; not my most enthusiastic 10, but still.

However, I can't help but feel everyone is looking at WALL-E the wrong way, where Quality = Box Office Receipts. $300 million, and above Iron Man? I highly doubt it. WALL-E's silent first act sounds more off-putting for kiddies than Cars' action-less story. Not that I doubt WALL-E will be anything short of great, but I do doubt it will make $300 million. $180 million actually sounds about right.

Posted by: Squirrel | June 12, 2008 at 04:32 PM

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