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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

June 17, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: All 'Prince' Edition or Dubious About the Fresh Prince and Holding Out Hope for the Prince of Darkness, er, for His Kid

by Shrykespeare

Good day to you all, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, where I, your swarthy superhero for summer solutions, await to swoop down and save you from villains both varied and disparate. Hmm. Yeah, that metaphor was a little overly dramatic, wasn't it? Forgive my flight of fancy, but "caffeine junkie with a keyboard and a pocketful of moxie" just doesn't have the same ring to it. (Wink.)

I'm sure you can understand why I've got superheroes on the brain. It's summertime, and with superhero films and comic-book adaptations popping left and right out of the woodwork, how can I not? Every young boy, at some point, dreams of being a superhero, saving the day with a repertoire of supernatural powers, cool gadgets and martial arts prowess. If I had to pick one super-power that I could have, it would be a tough choice:  the power of flight, perhaps, or telekinesis.

I'd probably opt for short-term clairvoyance, however ... it's less ostentatious and it would allow me to make a killing at the roulette tables. And, you know, be the king of Fantasy Moguls. (Back then, I would probably have chosen invisibility, which I would have used to alternately thwart evil and sneak into the girls' locker room every now and then. Grin.)

In a very short span, we will have had five superhero or otherwise comic-book-inspired films come out. Iron Man exceeded its expectations, leading off the summer in a spectacular fashion. Just this past weekend, The Incredible Hulk put everyone's lingering doubts to rest. And, of course, only a month away, the much-anticipated sequel to Batman Begins, the titan-in-the-making The Dark Knight looms.

This particular genre nearly disintegrated in 1997 with the disastrous Batman & Robin. Ever since the original Spider-Man came out in 2002, however, studios have been churning out superhero flicks at breakneck speed. And it won't stop anytime soon: the Iron Man and Hulk films will be tying in with Captain America and Thor in the next couple of years, eventually culminating in a full-scale Avengers film in 2011. Other lesser Marvel characters have been greenlit for films as well, such as Iron Fist, Silver Surfer, Luke Cage, Ghost Rider (following up Nic Cage's movie from 2007), Ant-Man, Doctor Strange and Sub-Mariner. The X-Men series will be giving us at least two "origin" films, starting with Wolverine next summer, and Spider-Man 4 is also being planned. DC Comics, meanwhile, will be giving us The Green Hornet, Superman: Man of Steel, The Flash and Green Lantern (and look for a possible Justice League film as well as, God willing, a third Bale-as-Batman film). And lest I forget, other adaptations await, such as December's The Spirit, next spring's Watchmen, and many others too numerous to name.

July 2008 just may be a first in film history as it will showcase, in three consecutive weeks, films featuring heroes who have supernatural origins or extraordinary abilities, and I will be talking about two of those films today. The first is Hancock (July 2), which has Will Smith returning to his Independence Day opening slot, the weekend he once definitively claimed by anointing himself Mr. Fourth of July. I doubt you need reminding, but Will Smith just may be the surest thing in Hollywood right now (apart from Pixar). His last 11 large-scale films (which include action films, dramas, an animated film and a romantic comedy) have all gone blockbuster. That's nearly 13 years without a miss, folks, and to pick this particular outing to flop would be, well, just stupid. The former Fresh Prince is gold right now, doing what he does best. And people will flock, in their millions, to watch him do it.

It seems strange that, given his charisma and the size of his fan base, he's never played a superhero before. While it's true that "minority" superheroes have not been very prevalent in the last half-century, one would think that such a breakthrough would have happened before now. Well, maybe Hancock is the turning point ... but that's a discussion for a later time. The title of the film is also the name of Smith's character and, as heroes go, Hancock certainly ain't a Boy Scout.

You've all seen at least one of the various trailers, I'm sure. They feature Smith, dressed pretty much like a homeless bum, flying raggedly through the air, soaked to the gills in alcohol and intent on "saving the day," no matter how much damage he may end up causing as a result. He is apparently invulnerable to, well, everything, which has made him a bit of a show-off. And the public, though impressed and more than a little intimidated by his abilities, finds Hancock's "cure" for crime to be worse than the disease itself.

He is eventually contacted by professional P.R. man Ray Embrey (Jason Bateman), who wants Hancock to dry out and fly straight (so to speak) so that the public will appreciate him more. Only, let's see how Ray feels after the big guy enters a "questionable relationship" with his wife (Charlize Theron) ... yowch. Anyway, the trailer appears to give up most of the story (dammit): Hancock goes to jail so the public will miss him, the crime-rate rises exponentially, and the public comes clamoring for his return, whereupon he is released, given a new lease on life, a snazzy new costume and, presumably, an as-yet-unseen super-foe to fight.

Directed by up-and-coming actor-turned-director Peter Berg (Friday Night Lights, The Kingdom), this one has all the makings of a box-office giant. I'd be derelict in my duty, however, if I didn't point out that early screenings of this film have earned "good" reviews at best, grudging "golf clap" praise at worst. Granted, there may be some last-minute tweaks to improve the final product before it hits theaters, but that's rather a less encouraging reception than I was expecting.

I went into I Am Legend last December with the highest of hopes, but was fairly disappointed in what I saw. With Hancock, I am hoping that the opposite will hold true. Because if Columbia doesn't start shining up its apple, and I mean soon, this film's final tally is going to be seen as vastly underwhelming. Given its leading star and its release slot, you'd think that $200 million was a given, but I'm honestly not so sure anymore. Yes, I'm sure there will be enough slam-bang action to bring the kids back for multiple viewings, but adults? That remains to be seen.

One year ago, the Independence Day weekend belonged to Transformers, which really only had to battle Ratatouille and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix for supremacy, a battle that Bay's baby ultimately won. Hancock, on the other hand, faces much stiffer competition from both fore and aft. It will be dueling Pixar's WALL-E right from the get-go, a film that I think is far more likely to draw entire families and repeat viewers, and, as I mentioned last week, will probably score much higher with kids than Ratatouille ever did. And, of course, only two weeks away, The Dark Knight arrives in all of its thunderous glory, bringing with it arguably the most popular comic-book character of all time, a smoking-hot actor and director returning to continue the epic journey they started three years ago. (Also, lest we forget: an iconic villain brought to tantalizing life by an actor who, sadly, will never be playing anyone else ever again.) Despite the buff-ness of Will Smith, I have to believe that in this three-film tug-of-war, Hancock will play the weakest.

It's amazing how a film sometimes gets a certain reputation before it even comes out. While people often say that "nobody cares about the critics," and, truly, many people see a film regardless of its reviews, I have to believe that some toll will be taken. The buzz for WALL-E and The Dark Knight has been nothing short of phenomenal, and I doubt that Hancock will be able to entirely ditch the vaporous cloud of "meh" that hovers above it before post time. In others words: it has 16 days to make its bones before it vanishes into the shadow of the Caped Crusader. (Now THAT'S a metaphor!) It has the benefit of a Wednesday opening date, so a $100 million, five-day first weekend is not out of the realm of possibility.

Fantasy Moguls predicts 13 Top 5 points, six PTA points, a User Rating of 7.0 and $175 million in box office, and honestly, that sounds about right to me, although I think the number of Top 5 points will end up being slightly lower and the dollars earned slightly higher, like around $200 million, possibly as high as $225. Hancock is priced at $34 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, which makes it just a hair cheaper than Wall-E. Given the choice, I think I would prefer to splurge that extra few bucks on Pixar, for all the reasons that I outlined in last week's column.

Opening one week later, we have Hellboy II: The Golden Army (July 11), a sequel to the 2004 film based on a Dark Horse comic book character that was originally authored by Mike Mignola, and brought to life by director Guillermo del Toro (who also co-wrote the screenplay with Mignola). Now, if you don't know who del Toro is, then shame on you ... he is the Mexican-born director who scored incredible critical success with Pan's Labyrinth, the Spanish-language film that took the industry by storm with its amazing set designs and stark narrative, and also garnered him an Academy Award nomination for Best Original Screenplay while actually winning three others (Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup). He has also signed on to direct the much-anticipated Lord of the Rings "prequel," The Hobbit, which is scheduled to hit theaters in 2011 and 2012 (in two parts).

I must point out that when the original Hellboy was released in April of 2004, it failed to make a resounding splash at the ticket counters. It fell just short of $60 million, even though it did earn a respectable IMDb rating of 6.7. In the years since, however, it has developed a quite substantial cult following, exploding on DVD and getting regular airplay on cable TV. And now, four years later, we are treated to another installment. The difference is, this time around, it is not a spring curiosity, but a summer spectacular. Del Toro's name carries a tremendous amount of weight now, and if the trailers for this film are anything to go by, the magic touch that made Labyrinth such a visual feast will be present in this film also.

In case you are unfamiliar with the story, the protagonist is, to say the least, rather unusual. He is the spawn of Satan himself (hence his name). But, if you can believe it, he's a good guy. Despite his rather unique appearance (with includes dark red skin, sawed-off horns and a right fist that could give The Thing a run for his money), he an awesomely charismatic character, played to the hilt by lantern-jawed actor Ron Perlman, who imbues Hellboy with a sardonic wit and a devil-may-care (heh) attitude.

He also has a not-too-subtle crush on Liz (Selma Blair), a fellow member of a very "special" secret government fighting unit, one that is mobilized whenever otherworldly forces rear their ugly heads. In this case, said forces are personified Prince Nuada (played by Luke Goss of Blade II, which del Toro also directed), who seeks to rally a mythical army to wage war on humanity. Big Red must decide whether it's in his interests to risk his life to defend the very people who look on him with fear and terror.

I'm not going to lie: This one is in the top tier of my list of most-anticipated films to see this year. I am a big fan of del Toro, and Perlman, and this character. I want this film to succeed immensely, and I firmly believe that if the buzz is good, it has a very good shot at not only winning its opening weekend, but possibly scratching out over $100 million in theaters. IF the buzz is good.

But don't worry, I'm not blind to just WHERE in the summer lineup this film is placed. Despite its appeal, this film is basically filler, something to tide us over in the final week before The Dark Knight hits theaters. I have no illusions that this film's total output will end up paling in comparison to Christopher Nolan's new epic, as well as WALL-E and probably Hancock as well. However, the hardcore group of Hellboy fans should not be underestimated, and there won't be another film in this particular vein until early August, when The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor opens. Apart from that, late July and early-to-mid-August is populated primarily with comedies, a musical, and the X-Files sequel (oh, goody). Hellboy II should have more than enough time to far surpass its predecessor.

Fantasy Moguls predicts a laughable two PTA and three Top 5 points for this film, which is almost insulting. It should have enough mustard to finish no lower than No. 2 on its opening weekend, possibly No. 1 if Hancock falters. If I'm playing devil's advocate (I know, I just can't help myself sometimes), it will finish with absolutely no fewer than five Top 5 points, although I think it could get as many as eight or nine. I'm a little wary of forecasting higher numbers than Fantasy Moguls's for User Rating and total box office, however (6.5 and $65 million). As I said, the hardcore group of Hellboy fans should be enough to push this film close to blockbuster range, if not over the top. IF the buzz is good. (Oh, wait, I already said that ...) In previous leagues, when this was only priced at $6-$10, it was a steal; but now, priced at $14 and $12, it's a little iffier. On the other hand, it looks to be a surer bet than similarly priced titles Swing Vote and The X-Files: I Want to Believe. I like its chances. A lot.

SUPER LEAGUES UPDATE: As of Monday morning, we have officially filled the 2nd-Half Ultimate tournament with a full complement of 100 players. ("And there was much rejoicing ...") I have extended the deadline for entry into the Box-Office tournament, however, another week, until this coming Sunday. We still have five (5) openings left in that tournament, and even though You Don't Mess with the Zohan and The Incredible Hulk are now off the table, there are still plenty of good options available. This will be your last chance to enter a Super League until January 2009, so e-mail me straightaway if you're interested (and please include your Fantasy Moguls username in that e-mail).

Well, that will wrap it up for me for another week. Please return next week when I will be breaking down three more films coming in mid-July that will serve as interesting counter-programming to all of the comic-book-y and superheroic outings hitting theaters: Eddie Murphy returns (playing multiple roles, of course) in Meet Dave, where he is not only a human-shaped alien spaceship, but the two-inch-tall captain of said spaceship (and, yeah, I'm stocking up on Maalox as we speak); Brendan Fraser takes the lead in the computer-updated Jules Verne classic Journey to the Center of the Earth (in 3-D!); and Space Chimps, an animated film that tells the story of spacefaring monkeys (yikes, better make that a double order of Maalox).

TTFN!

Shrykespeare is going to need more than Maalox to deal with Meet Dave and Space Chimps. Suspended animation would be more like it. Somebody remember to send a note to shrykespeare42@gmail.com when it's time for him to explain why The Dark Knight is about to replace "sliced bread" in the phrase "greatest thing since the invention of sliced bread."

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Comments

Squirrel

Are you kidding me? The Dark Knight and WALL-E are a tougher pair than Ratatouille and Harry Potter 5? You guys are totally going out on a limb with your WALL-E predictions; I'll be surprised if it matches Ratatouille's final gross. Likewise for Knight/Harry Potter 5. Hancock may not be an epic blockbuster, but I highly doubt it will gross less than WALL-E.

Posted by: Squirrel | June 17, 2008 at 10:38 AM

Beaze

Wall-E will be a monster, no doubt. It's the only good family friendly movie playing in July.

But there is no way in HELL that THE DARK NIGHT out-grosses Hancock. BATMAN BEGINS barely made over $200M, and THE DARK NIGHT is just too dark.

I've talked to a lot of families with small children (5-11) and there is no way they are letting them anywhere near Batman this summer. It's about a sadistic murderous clown for crying out loud. After IRONMAN's pole dancing flight attendants a lot of parents are wary of dark hero films. Expect that to hurt Batman.

HANCOCK on the other hand...well it's Will Smith...Mr. Friendly. Even though he's a lush like Tony Starks, we all know that in the end he will be cleaned up and shined in a brand new role model package with a little message about 2nd chances and triumph.

Triumph's beats depression any day of the week at the box office.

Posted by: Beaze | June 17, 2008 at 11:22 AM

Flashing-Lights

Will Smith has the Midas Touch, Hancock could very well come out on top among the 3, Wall-E, give me a break, It will be good, but can it beat Hancock, I doubt that.

Posted by: Flashing-Lights | June 17, 2008 at 11:30 AM

JackO

So, what I get from this column is that Wall-E and TDK will effect Hancock, despite it's tracking numbers, but won't effect Hellboy because of it's fanboys? I don't think so.

Posted by: JackO | June 17, 2008 at 11:40 AM

undeadmonkey

He did say that Hellboy would be effected. I find yalls reasoning about Hancock and Wall-E very interesting, not to mention The Dark Knight

It doesnt matter how much Batman Begins made in theaters, countless people have seen it since then, on dvd and pay per view and cable. The Dark Knight WILL make more than Hancock.

Posted by: undeadmonkey | June 17, 2008 at 12:55 PM

J.I.

Dude, guys...

Beaze, how about "there's no chance in hell that Hancock out-grosses The Dark Knight."

And Squirrel, Wall-E will definately outgross Ratatouille no matter what happens. Have you ever been in a theater with a bunch of kids when the Wall-E trailer is playing?

Posted by: J.I. | June 17, 2008 at 01:05 PM

numbersix_99

For one thing, Wall-E is much shorter than Ratatouille, so will squeeze in more screenings per day, and earn more. And, Wall E is more marketable than a rat.

Posted by: numbersix_99 | June 17, 2008 at 01:38 PM

Arthur

If you think Hancock will beat TDK, you're crazy. There is so much hype for this film, it is crazy. Hancock will will do well, don't get me wrong, but Batman has much more going for it.

Wall-E will out gross Hancock this year, and surpass what Ratatouille did last year. I'll put money on that.

Posted by: Arthur | June 18, 2008 at 12:51 PM

elessar

Beaze: 5-11 year-olds are not the target audience for superhero films. The main audience is 15-35, with quite a few older fans. Batman Begins did not gross as much as it could have for two reasons: 1) the bitter aftertaste of Batman and Robin (there's a reason the franchise was incapacitated for 8 years) and 2) very little promotion. I started hearing news about TDK as early as mid-2006 (Ledger's casting), and the viral campaign has kept people interested. I didn't know about BB until I saw a teaser poster in December 2004, and that was the only promo I saw until the TV spots started.

TDK has much going for it that others have already touched on. WALL-E will outgross Ratatouille and rank similarly to other Pixar efforts (240-260). Then again, it could come close to matching Finding Nemo.

Hancock will reach 200-220M, but not too much more.

Posted by: elessar | June 21, 2008 at 12:54 PM

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