WEEKEND ESTIMATES: Studio Numbers Predict $62.5M Weekend for 'WALL-E' and Third-Biggest Pixar Opening Ever!; 'Wanted' Blows Away Expectations with $50M for All-Time No. 7 R-rated Opening!
by Steve Mason
SUNDAY 10:00 a.m. (Pacific): As I first reported Friday afternoon, Hollywood is filled with happy executives this weekend, as both Disney and Universal have enormous hits on their hands. Pixar has again demonstrated its animation prowess with the impeccably reviewed WALL-E (Disney). With critics falling all over themselves to anoint the movie as a masterpiece (97 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 92 from MetaCritic), industry estimates prove that audiences are responding in a huge way as well. WALL-E has scored a meteoric $23.1 million on Friday (I reported $23 million Friday night), although the movie will fall short of my Friday night three-day projection of $66 million. Instead of a Saturday boost, WALL-E was a bit frontloaded, actually dipping 5 percent Saturday to $22 million or so. Still, with a revised three-day estimate of $62.5 million, writer/director Andrew Stanton's film will grab the all-time third-biggest Pixar opening.
ALL-TIME BEST PIXAR OPENINGS
1. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
2. Finding Nemo — $70.2 million
3. Wall-E — $62.5 million (Estimated)
3. Monsters Inc. — $62.5 million
5. Cars — $60.1 million
6. Toy Story 2 — $57.3M opening (First weekend in wide release)
7. Ratatouille — $47 million
8. A Bug’s Life — $33.1 million (First weekend in wide release)
9. Toy Story — $29.1 million
This Chaplinesque story of planet Earth's last robot is unlikely material for a summer animation blockbuster, but this is Pixar. WALL-E also marks the big screen's return of Oscar-winning writer/director Stanton, who may have artistically outdone his brilliant 2003 animated classic Finding Nemo. If the three-day number holds, WALL-E will deliver the all-time seventh-best animated opening and the all-time No. 3 opening for an original non-sequel animated film.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 ANIMATED OPENINGS
1. Shrek The Third — $121.6 million
2. Shrek 2 — $108 million
3. The Simpsons Movie — $74 million
4. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
5. Finding Nemo — $70.2 million
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $68 million
7. WALL-E — $62.5 million (Estimated)
7. Monsters Inc. — $62.5 million
9. Cars — $60.1 million
10. Madagascar — $47.2 million
There is plenty of good news to go around this weekend as Universal has scored huge with Wanted, starring Oscar winner Angelina Jolie and quickly rising actor James McAvoy. With a strong R-rating, Wanted is aimed at grown-ups, especially men, and critics have been generally very positive (74 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 64 from MetaCritic). This high octane Matrix-style action film from Russian director Timur Bekmambetov grabbed a spectacular $19.17 million on Friday, according to Universal (I reported $18.5 million Friday night), and, after scoring another $17.55 million Saturday (down 8 percent), it is likely headed for $51.11 million by Monday morning.
That will easily give Wanted the all-time best June opening for an R-rated movie, coasting past last year’s Universal comedy Knocked Up:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 R-RATED JUNE OPENINGS
1. Wanted — $51.11 million (Estimated)
2. Knocked Up — $30.69 million
3. The Happening — $30.51 million
4. Total Recall — $25.53 million
5. The Rock — $25 million
Universal will be thinking "franchise," and they should be. This completely original movie will have posted the all-time 7th-best opening for an R-rated movie:
ALL-TIME BEST TOP 10 R-RATED OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded — $91.77 million
2. The Passion of the Christ — $83.84 million
3. 300 — $70.88 million
4. Hannibal — $58 million
5. Sex and the City — $57 million
6. 8 Mile — $51.24 million
7. Wanted — $51.11 million (Estimated)
8. The Matrix Revolutions — $48.47 million
9. Troy — $46.86 million
10. American Pie 2 — $45.11 million
And for Jolie, Wanted marks her all-time best live action opening, topping 2006's Mr. & Mrs. Smith.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 LIVE ACTION ANGELINA JOLIE OPENINGS
1. Wanted — $51.11 million (Estimated)
2. Mr. & Mrs. Smith — $50.34 million
3. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider — $47.73 million
4. Gone in 60 Seconds — $25.33 million
5. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life — $21.78 million
6. The Bone Collector — $16.71 million
7. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow — $15.58 million
8. Alexander — $13.68 million
9. Taking Lives — $11.45 million
10. The Good Shepherd — $9.91 million
Warner Bros. has a solid grasp on the No. 3 spot for the weekend, with holdover Get Smart.
The PG-13-rated comedy managed an estimated about $20 million for the weekend, for a new 10-day cume of
$77.26 million. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount), with plenty of
competition from Disney/Pixar's little robot, is holding up pretty
well. Panda will likely reach $11.74 million
for the frame. With plans for a sequel underway, the Jack Black-voiced
roly poly martial arts trainee will have generated just under $180 million by
Monday.
Unfortunately for Marvel, The Incredible Hulk (Universal) appears to have taken another steep drop. The big green guy was down 58 percent from its second weekend to $9.22 million. That would bring the new Hulk's domestic cume to just over $115 million, making it difficult for The Incredible Hulk to match the $134 million that Ang Lee's Hulk generated 5 years ago. I am projecting about $128 million-$132 million for Marvel's second self-financed, self-produced movie.
Finally, I am told that Paramount's disappointing Mike Myers comedy The Love Guru has slipped out of the Top 5 with a dismal $5.44 million and a new total domestic gross of just over $25.32 million.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — 5 locations, $21,200 PTA
2. NEW The Last Mistress (IFC Films) — 2 locations, $17,600 PTA
3. NEW Wanted (Universal) — 3,175 locations, $16,100 PTA
4. NEW WALL-E (Disney) — 3,992 locations, $15,656 PTA
5. NEW Trumbo (Samuel Goldwyn) — 3 locations, $9,500 PTA
6. Encounters at the End of the World (Thinkfilm) — 8 locations, $6,762 PTA
7. Get Smart (Warner Bros) — 3,915 locations, $5,108 PTA
8. Mongol (Picturehouse) — 209 locations, $4,043 PTA
9. Brick Lane (Sony Classics) — 18 locations, $3,788 PTA
10. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount) — 3,670 locations, $3,200 PTA
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW WALL-E (Disney) — $62.5 million, $15,656 PTA, $62.5 million cume
2. NEW Wanted (Universal) — $51.11 million, $16,100 PTA, $51.11 million cume
3. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $20 million, $5,108 PTA, $77.26 million cume
4. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $11.74 million, $3,200 PTA, $179.33 million cume
5. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $9.22 million, $2,754 PTA, $115.5 million cume
6. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $5.44 million, $1,806 PTA, $25.32 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $5.03 million, $1,67 PTA, $299.93 million cume
8. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $3.85 million, $1,550 PTA, $59.06 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Sony) — $3.77 million, $2,148 PTA, $140.13 million cume
10. You Don't Mess With The Zohan (Sony) — $3.2 million, $1,490 PTA, $91.21 million cume
11. Iron Man (Paramount) — $2.25 million, $1,634 PTA, $309.17 million cume
Based on past summer kids' movies and the fact all schools are out, WALL•E will have to make almost $25 million (maybe slightly less) to make $70 million for the weekend, so that's your benchmark if it's going to set a record.
Posted by: Edward Douglas | June 27, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Saw both movies this afternoon--both were heavily attended. I thought WALL*E was very good, but for my money, Toy Story 2, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille were all better films.
Posted by: Webster | June 27, 2008 at 08:04 PM
According to worldofkj.com Wall-E will is headed to 25 million and Wanted 16 million for friday.
Posted by: Kevin | June 27, 2008 at 08:25 PM
I think that's about what I expected for both. Most people were getting abit crazy with "Wall-E" going up to $85M and such. $70M is great and I'm sure it will have LONG LONG legs and be a HUGE hit. Great for Wanted also. I really wanted it to do well. I hope it can hit that $40M mark.
Posted by: Stev | June 27, 2008 at 09:23 PM
multipliers for recent pixar films :
nemo : 4.9
ratatouille : 4.4
cars : 4.0
incredibles :3.75 (this is the worst!)
cynically speaking, if wall-e somehow manages a multiplier of "only" 3.6,
250 is kind of guaranteed.
(assuming a 70 million weekend).
if it turns out to be classic that critics claim it is, 300 million is within reach. apart from the now fading panda, it has no competition(as regard to kids and families).
Posted by: abhishek | June 27, 2008 at 09:57 PM
OMFG! $48M for Wanted?! SWEEETTT!!!
Posted by: Stev | June 27, 2008 at 11:45 PM
to get 48 million, wanted's breakdown would have to be something like:
fri : 18.5
sat : 16.0 (-13.5 %)
sun : 13.5 (-15.0%)
for an R-rated movie based on a comic, opening on a no-school friday, that may be a optimistic...but ya, anything's possible...
Posted by: abhishek | June 28, 2008 at 01:19 AM
Absolutely insanely awesome! Wall-E and Wanted combine for $114 million with Get Smart and Panda holding up very well. Overall top 11 will have $185.34 million according to these estimates making it the biggest weekend since Pirates in May 07. All going into the 4th of July weekend with Hancock tracking huge! Thanks, Steve.
Posted by: J.I. | June 28, 2008 at 06:31 AM
Your all time top 10 R rated openings is missing SEX AND THE CITY, with its 57 million opening. how could you forget that?!
Posted by: Tyler | June 28, 2008 at 08:14 AM
Wall-e was a great movie and Wanted looks like to be a huge surprise this weekend
Posted by: DJ | June 28, 2008 at 12:24 PM
good news for wall-e it did better than last years stupid rat film just would of hoped that it would of opened with 70+ but 66 is not that bad. Now for the next film to break records is The Dark Knight
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 01:52 PM
Salva's inablity to fathom that the correct phrasing is "would open" or "would've opened" (if going for the past tense) speaks volumes as to why he'd refer to the previous Pixar release as a "stupid rat film" -- egads.
Posted by: John | June 28, 2008 at 02:16 PM
well john because last years film was about a stupid rat film it was dumb. It was dumb thats fact and it underperformed with 47 million
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 03:59 PM
"last years film was about a stupid rat film it was dumb"
I don't think you're in the position to be calling anything dumb, salva.
The reason Ratatouille had a slightly dissapointing opening weekend was because a film about a rat in france that wants to become a chef is a tough sell, but once word spread about how good the film was it managed to take over $200 million domestic and over $600 million worldwide.
It was hardly a "stupid rat film".
Good news for Wall-e though, i think $300 million might be a bit too much but it should do between $250-$275 million domestic as word of mouth will be great on this so it should have good legs.
Also great for wanted, although i can see it taking a 55-60% drop next weekend.
Oh and about the $150 million 5 day prediction for Hancock, come off it mase, $120 million is the limit especially with all the negative reviews coming in. And can we get some early predictions on the Dark Knight yet? $100 million + OW surely?
Posted by: A.B | June 28, 2008 at 05:32 PM
i just didnt like the film. and will be the darks night opening weekend, its final domestic gross and its worldwide gross
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 05:38 PM
with wall-e opening with 66 million thats great. come to think of it besides last year with record breaking opening weekends 3 films opened with atleast 30 million chuck and larry and oceans 13 this year you only have 1 get smart so besides last years may box-office this year is coming off better than last year so far
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 07:32 PM
o and i forgot evan almighty
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 07:35 PM
Totally forgot about SEX & THE CITY. Thanks!
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | June 29, 2008 at 08:54 AM
I Am Legend made 77 million in 3 days.
For Hancock to make 150, it has to make 77 in the weekend like legend, and 73 more on wed and thursday combined.
looks unlikely.
Posted by: Abhishek | June 29, 2008 at 04:55 PM
A.B,
TDK is 100+ surely.
If iron man can go 102, TDK is going to be HUGE.
Last week, the topic of watching TDK came up at the company I work for. The excitement amongst everyone at the company, males and females, age no bar, was huge.
All employees have their tickets booked.
Posted by: abhishek | June 30, 2008 at 12:37 AM
Wall-E will make at least 4x it's opening weekend. I think it will either have the 4.4 multiplier of Ratatouille or the 4.9 of Nemo. Strong legs are a characteristic of Pixar films. It should hold strong in the wake of hancock and TDK. Wanted, hancock, and hellboy, will eat into each other, and they will suffer when TDK opens.
Posted by: junjunm3 | June 30, 2008 at 04:04 PM