EARLY TRACKING: 'Get Smart' Headed for $30M-$35M; 'The Love Guru' Much Softer at $20M-$25M!
by Steve Mason
MONDAY 9 p.m. (Pacific): Will a send-up of Deepak Chopra from the man who created Austin Powers generate big box office? Or will Steve Carell successfully deadpan his way to the top of the box office heap with a silver screen version of the classic TV series Get Smart (Warner Bros.)? The latest industry tracking seems to point toward a win for Warner Bros.
Mike Myers has been not made a big screen appearance with the exception of the last two Shrek movies since his role in The Cat in the Hat five years ago. The reality is that he has a very thin resume when it comes to live action movies:
ALL TIME BEST MIKE MYERS OPENINGS
1. Austin Powers in Goldmember (2002) — $73.07 million opening, $213.3 million cume
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me (1999) — $54.91 million opening, $206 million cume
3. The Cat in the Hat (2003) — $38.32 million opening, $101.14 million cume
4. Wayne's World (1992) — $18.12 opening, $121.69 million cume
5. Wayne's World 2 (1993) — $13.51 million opening, $48.19 million cume
6. Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery (1997) — $9.54M opening, $53.88 million cume
7. View from the Top (2003) — $7 million opening, $15.61 million cume
8. 54 (1998) — $6.61 million opening, $16.75 million cume
9. So I Married An Axe Murderer (1993) — $3.46 million opening, $11.58 million cume
My sources are telling me that the tracking for The Love Guru (Paramount) is very soft. One of the world's hottest women, Jessica Alba, is a drawing card with the two Fantastic Four movies on her resume, which both opened to more $50 million. Recording superstar and quickly rising actor Justin Timberlake will also bring Under 25s to the multiplex.
There was some initial criticism of Love Guru from Hindu leaders, but Deepak Chopra has rushed to support Myers in Time magazine. "The premature outcry against the movie is itself religious propaganda. As viewers will find out when the movie is released this summer, no one is more thoroughly skewered in it than I am — you could even say that I am made to seem preposterous."
In the final analysis, will the Under 25 crowd be interested in the silly skewering of modern spirituality? In my estimation, it will be a tough sell. At the moment, I am forecasting $20 million-$25 million for the opening weekend of The Love Guru.
The situation looks much better for Get Smart from Warner Bros. The fact that two major studio comedies are opening on the same Friday is problematic for both movies, but Carell as Maxwell Smart and Anne Hathaway as Agent 99 seem to be getting more traction in industry tracking, and Get Smart also has in its favor the excellent resume of director Peter Segal:
ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR PETER SEGAL-DIRECTED FILMS
1. The Longest Yard — $47.6 million
2. Anger Management — $42.22 million
3. The Nutty Professor II: The Klumps — $42.51 million
4. 50 First Dates — $39.85 million
5. The Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult — $13.21 million
Additionally, Carell has had far more recent success than Myers, including NBC's The Office, last summer's Evan Almighty ($31.19 million opening, $100.46 million domestic), the well-reviewed, solid hit Dan in Real Life, which got to $47.63 million domestic last year, the indie smash Little Miss Sunshine ($59.9 million cume) and, of course, the huge success of The 40-Year-Old Virgin during the summer of 2005, which fell just shy of $110 million. domestic.
One of best sources is calling for a take in the low $30 million range ($30 million-$35 million range) as of Monday night, but I suspect that this one has an chance to get $40 million this Friday-Sunday. I will update the latest tracking and publish my final predictions on Thursday.


I think Get Smart really has a shot at 40 million next weekend. Unfortunately with Wall-E and Wanted coming out next week, it will drop rather fast. Can't wait to see Wall-E, how's the tracking for that looking?
Posted by: Alex | June 17, 2008 at 12:05 AM
I'm so excited to see Get Smart. Fandango is offering two free tickets along with the dvd set for 15 percent off in case anyone is interested. I hate that the love guru is opening the same weekend, because I do want to see that as well, but they are bound to take away from each other. Hope get smart is on top.
Posted by: jake | June 17, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Get Smart looks okay over all though Steve Carell seems to be veering more and more toward not so funny slapstick humor
Posted by: patrick | July 08, 2008 at 04:04 PM