• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

June 16, 2008

EARLY TRACKING: 'Get Smart' Headed for $30M-$35M; 'The Love Guru' Much Softer at $20M-$25M!

by Steve Mason

MONDAY 9 p.m. (Pacific): Will a send-up of Deepak Chopra from the man who created Austin Powers generate big box office? Or will Steve Carell successfully deadpan his way to the top of the box office heap with a silver screen version of the classic TV series Get Smart (Warner Bros.)? The latest industry tracking seems to point toward a win for Warner Bros.

Mike Myers has been not made a big screen appearance with the exception of the last two Shrek movies since his role in The Cat in the Hat five years ago. The reality is that he has a very thin resume when it comes to live action movies:

ALL TIME BEST MIKE MYERS OPENINGS
1. Austin Powers in Goldmember (2002) — $73.07 million opening, $213.3 million cume
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me (1999) — $54.91 million opening, $206 million cume
3. The Cat in the Hat (2003) — $38.32 million opening, $101.14 million cume
4. Wayne's World (1992) — $18.12 opening, $121.69 million cume
5. Wayne's World 2 (1993) — $13.51 million opening, $48.19 million cume
6. Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery (1997) — $9.54M  opening, $53.88 million cume
7. View from the Top (2003) — $7 million opening, $15.61 million cume
8. 54 (1998) — $6.61 million opening, $16.75 million cume
9. So I Married An Axe Murderer (1993) — $3.46 million opening, $11.58 million cume

My sources are telling me that the tracking for The Love Guru (Paramount) is very soft. One of the world's hottest women, Jessica Alba, is a drawing card with the two Fantastic Four movies on her resume, which both opened to more $50 million. Recording superstar and quickly rising actor Justin Timberlake will also bring Under 25s to the multiplex.

There was some initial criticism of Love Guru from Hindu leaders, but Deepak Chopra has rushed to support Myers in Time magazine. "The premature outcry against the movie is itself religious propaganda. As viewers will find out when the movie is released this summer, no one is more thoroughly skewered in it than I am — you could even say that I am made to seem preposterous."

In the final analysis, will the Under 25 crowd be interested in the silly skewering of modern spirituality? In my estimation, it will be a tough sell. At the moment, I am forecasting $20 million-$25 million for the opening weekend of The Love Guru.

The situation looks much better for Get Smart from Warner Bros. The fact that two major studio comedies are opening on the same Friday is problematic for both movies, but Carell as Maxwell Smart and Anne Hathaway as Agent 99 seem to be getting more traction in industry tracking, and Get Smart also has in its favor the excellent resume of director Peter Segal:

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR PETER SEGAL-DIRECTED FILMS
1. The Longest Yard — $47.6 million
2. Anger Management — $42.22 million
3. The Nutty Professor II: The Klumps — $42.51 million
4. 50 First Dates — $39.85 million
5. The Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult — $13.21 million

Additionally, Carell has had far more recent success than Myers, including NBC's The Office, last summer's Evan Almighty ($31.19 million opening, $100.46 million domestic), the well-reviewed, solid hit Dan in Real Life, which got to $47.63 million domestic last year, the indie smash Little Miss Sunshine ($59.9 million cume) and, of course, the huge success of The 40-Year-Old Virgin during the summer of 2005, which fell just shy of $110 million. domestic.

One of best sources is calling for a take in the low $30 million range ($30 million-$35 million range) as of Monday night, but I suspect that this one has an chance to get $40 million this Friday-Sunday. I will update the latest tracking and publish my final predictions on Thursday.

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 09:41 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef00e5537423028834

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference EARLY TRACKING: 'Get Smart' Headed for $30M-$35M; 'The Love Guru' Much Softer at $20M-$25M!:

Comments

Alex

I think Get Smart really has a shot at 40 million next weekend. Unfortunately with Wall-E and Wanted coming out next week, it will drop rather fast. Can't wait to see Wall-E, how's the tracking for that looking?

Posted by: Alex | June 17, 2008 at 12:05 AM

jake

I'm so excited to see Get Smart. Fandango is offering two free tickets along with the dvd set for 15 percent off in case anyone is interested. I hate that the love guru is opening the same weekend, because I do want to see that as well, but they are bound to take away from each other. Hope get smart is on top.

Posted by: jake | June 17, 2008 at 11:22 AM

patrick

Get Smart looks okay over all though Steve Carell seems to be veering more and more toward not so funny slapstick humor

Posted by: patrick | July 08, 2008 at 04:04 PM

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.

You are currently signed in as (nobody). Sign Out

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service