4TH OF JULY TRACKING: 'Hancock' Seems Destined for $140M-$150M Over Five-Day 4th of July Frame, Marking Eight Straight $100M Movies for Will Smith!
by Steve Mason
By Monday, July 7, Will Smith will be the undisputed No. 1 movie star in the world. My sources tell me that tracking for Hancock (Sony) is in the stratosphere, and its five-day gross will be, conservatively, in the $140 million-$150 million range, with a bigger number highly possible. That would give the former Fresh Prince his eighth consecutive $100 million movie (his last dry spell was the back-to-back misfires of hybrid blockbuster/prestige releases Ali and The Legend of Bagger Vance), topping the all-time best streaks of two fellow screen legends.
Although I do not know anyone who has seen the movie at this point, the concept, in my estimation, is perfectly attuned to our current culture. Hancock, played by Smith, is a superhero who needs rehab, a down-on-his-luck loser with superpowers. Jason Bateman plays the publicist who volunteers to rehabilitate his image out of gratitude for Hancock's heroism. This new Will Smith role is, essentially, a superhero for the TMZ/Perez Hilton generation.
Hancock will, without question, be the twelfth $100 million movie of Smith's career (a tally that includes the animated Shark Tale). That will move him back into a fourth-place tie with Harrison Ford, whose Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) is still playing strongly in theatres and approaching the $300 million domestic mark.
MOST $100 MILLION MOVIES IN A CAREER (List includes animated films and excludes cameos)
1. Tom Hanks — 15
2. Tom Cruise — 14
3. Eddie Murphy — 13
4. Will Smith — 12 (including Hancock)
4. Harrison Ford — 12
6. Jim Carrey — 11
6. Robin Williams — 11
8. Mel Gibson — 10
9. Matt Damon — 9
10. Bruce Willis — 8
10. Jack Nicholson — 8
Will Smith, however, is about to do something unprecedented, a feat never accomplished even by either of the Toms, Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive blockbuster to gross $100 million or more.
Men in Black II (2002) — $52.14 million opening, $190.41 million cume
Bad Boys II (2003) — $46.52 million opening, $138.6 million cume
I, Robot (2004) — $52.17 million opening, $144.8 million cume
Shark Tale (2004) — $47.6 million opening, $160.86 million cume
Hitch (2005) — $43.12 million opening, $179.49 million cume
The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) — $26.54 million opening, $163.56 million cume
I Am Legend (2007) — $77.21 million opening, $256.39 million cume
Hancock (2008) — $150 million opening (Estimated)
The best streak that Tom Hanks put together was seven, beginning with Saving Private Ryan in 1998:
Saving Private Ryan (1998) — $30.57 million opening,$216.54 million cume
You’ve Got Mail (1998) — $18.42 million opening,$115.82 million cume
Toy Story 2 (1999) — $300,000 opening, $245.85 million cume
The Green Mile (1999) — $18 million opening,$136.8 million cume
Cast Away (2000) — $28.88 million opening,$233.63 million cume
Road To Perdition (2002) — $22.07 million opening,$104.45 million cume
Catch Me If You Can (2002) — $30 million opening,$164.61 million cume
And, surprisingly, were it not for the disastrous Lions For Lambs, Cruise would still be on a long winning streak. Instead, his MGM/UA debut ended his string of $100 million hits at seven as well:
Mission Impossible II (2000) — $57.84 million opening, $215.4 million cume
Vanilla Sky (2001) — $25 million opening, $100.61 million cume
Minority Report (2002) — $35.67 million opening, $132.07 million cume
The Last Samurai (2003) — $24.27 million opening, $111.12 million cume
Collateral (2004) — $24.7 million opening, $101 million cume
War of the Worlds (2005) — $64.87 million opening, $234.28 million cume
Mission Impossible III (2006) — $47.74 million opening, $134 million cume
Currently, Will Smith is the closest thing that Hollywood has to a sure thing, and, notably, he is not making the same movie over and over again. The streak includes sequels, original sci-fi, animation, romantic comedy and Oscar-nominated drama. His next film, Seven Pounds (Sony), is set for December and reteams him with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino. It is an eclectic drama, but it will not be surprising at all if he extends his $100 million winning streak to nine. Everything he touches turns to gold.
You're expecting 5 days averaging $28 million each? (I Am Legend didn't even do that and that's Smith's biggest opener.) Good luck with that, Mase.
Posted by: Edward Douglas | June 19, 2008 at 02:58 AM
Well, I really think Wall-E will hurt Hancock's gross so 140-150 in 5 days seems maybe to much even for Will Smith.
Anyway, what the hell Steve? You talked about Hulk's tracking twice, same for Get Smart and Love Guru and now you are already writing about Hancock! Where is Wall-E? I want to see how well that is tracking!
Posted by: Alex | June 19, 2008 at 05:06 AM
Ed Douglas, why do you always Hate on smith, your review of I am legend was reallly Horribly written, it's like you saw a different movie, It had it flaws but it seems to me you were hell bent on hating from the word Go and you pretty much seemed not to find anything worth liking in the movie, I can't wait to see your Hancock Review which will probabbly be another 5/10.
Posted by: taraji | June 19, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Wow. I'm really stoked to see those numbers. They're amazing and I'm not putting it past Smith. The man has insane drawing power, even when he looks like a hobo.
Posted by: Stev | June 19, 2008 at 11:51 AM
I think it should be noted that Adam Sandler, though I am not a huge fan, is also consistently box office gold.
Counting only his live-action comedies, he is on course to (almost) have an eighth in a row with "Zohan," if we don't count "Little Nicky."
The Waterboy (1998) - $161 mil
Big Daddy (1999) - $163 mil
Mr. Deeds (2002) - $126 mil
Anger Management (2003) - $135 mil
50 First Dates (2004) - $120 mil
The Longest Yard (2005) - $158 mil
Click (2006) - $137 mil
Chuck & Larry (2007) - $120 mil
Zohan (2008) - $72 mil in the bank.
This isn't the most impressive, but when Sandler is in his groove, he makes it happen. Smith is obviously the bigger international and domestic star, but I doubt there is any studio that would pass up a modestly-budgeted ($60-80 mil) Sandler vehicle, since that's about what they always cost (nearly half of what a Will Smith film costs to make most times).
Behind Smith, Sandler might be the closest thing to a sure bet, at least in comedy.
Posted by: Ross | June 19, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I was tempering expectations a bit for this one. I never would imagine it would have been in the same league as Indy 4! I was thinking 115-120.
Posted by: JackO | June 19, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Sounds about right to me.
I would really like to see THE DARK KNIGHT pull those numbers. I don't think it can. There are not many families that want to see a murderous, machine gun carrying clown.
I would be happy with 5 days $120 for Hancock.
Posted by: Beaze | June 19, 2008 at 12:45 PM
taraji, it's the ONLY Will Smith I didn't like... well, that and Bad Boys 2. I loved Hitch, I gave Pursuit of Happyness a good review and I liked Hancock (yes, I've seen it)... I even was mostly positive on I, Robot. I Am Legend had a lot of problems that as a critic, you're not allowed to ignore.
Posted by: Edward Douglas | June 19, 2008 at 01:04 PM
Hi Ed Thanks for replying, I Am Legend did have it's flaws, even I as a regular movie goerwas frustrated by the movie, it was so close to greatness, yet so far from it, watching I could not help but think, If only they had used humans for the Zomes/Vampires it would have gone a long way, or if if only they had taken out the Religious bit, e.t.c ultimately the binding glue that held this movie together was Will Smith's perfomance, which IMO it's one of his best performances, and it was quite unique as usually in big budget movies, like these you usually expect Ham fisted perfomances from the leads and more of the "Shoot em' Up beat em' down kind of things", but what we got was a really scared man, who really tries to avoid encounters with the creatures. The fact that you disliked him in it, was rather shocking, as most people who disliked the movie seemed to acknowledge that smith was good in this, while the movie was not, Just seemed a little taken aback by comments like 'Smith lacks any credibility as a scientist', what exactly could he have done to gain some scienctist credibility, looks to me as though you had a certain stereotype in your mind as to what high profile scienctist should look like dorky, a little overweight as they probably spend way too much time in the lab,klutzy e.t.c and when when you saw a good looking and extremely fit scienctist, you just couldn't by that, I mean it's avalid criticism don't get me wrong they were going for a hybrid, Robert Neville had to be really smart, and also had to be really resourceful and agile, hence will smith's Look. Just seemed a little extreme for you to hold that against him. I do respect your opinion however I strongly disagree with it, just a little shocked that, you thought he was unconvincing in the role, and glad you liked Hancock.
Posted by: taraji | June 19, 2008 at 03:33 PM
Judging by the trailer for "Hancock," I'm sure it will be huge. $100M+ is guaranteed for the first 5 days. But $150M? That may be a bit much.
Posted by: Ian | June 19, 2008 at 09:05 PM
Guys, it's Will Smith. He IS a sure thing. The ONLY undisputed movie star left. Read--the ONLY one left. "Legend" did $80 million opening weekend, and it just further solidified Smith's presence. Add that it is the summer, it's a superhero movie that looks amazing frankly, and it is a no brainer that this film will do mega business in its oening...Smith's star power with this movie, I could see it doing a $80 mil 3-day weekend. With the holiday boost and the extra two days--$140-150 is not unlikely--but more or less an undershoot. Hancock is going to open to $40 mill plus, down to $25 mill on Thursday, with an additional $75-85 on Friday-Sunday for a good total of $140-150.
Posted by: Jason | June 20, 2008 at 09:35 PM
This movie will be big but not BIG as everyone is predicting. 40mil on it's first day is waaay too much, given it's a WED wherein the majority of people are preoccupied with this thing called work. 40mil plus opening days are usually reserved for known brands like Star Wars, Spidey, Pirates etc. As big as Will Smith is, which he is, 150mil over five days is way too optimistic because there will be solid competition that will cap it's potential in theaters at the same time. I say 40-50mil heading into the weekend which will net an additional 75mil. 115mil first 5 days
Posted by: jarred | June 21, 2008 at 11:37 AM
You read my mind jarred! I was thinking a 75 million 3 day for Hancock. Good enough for second place on the July 4th openers. I'd be very happy with that opening.
Posted by: JackO | June 21, 2008 at 01:34 PM
There is no way that hancock will make 140 first 5 days.If you wanna make a bold prediction since 4th of july weekend is coming up Im saying hancock could hit the 76 million area.You gotta relize that Wall-e and Wanted will be in that area to steal your business away.
On another note Everybody is waiting for Hellboy 2 and TDK.
Posted by: DJ | June 28, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Stupid jew sandler aint got shit on Will smith. PLEASE!!!
Posted by: Mark Webster | June 28, 2008 at 04:32 PM