WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Get Smart' Gets $39.15M; 'KFP' No. 2 with $21.7M; 'Hulk' Stumbles to $21.55M and Likely Off More Than 60 Percent from Opening Weekend; No Love for Myers's 'Guru' With $14M; 'Kit Kittredge' Meteoric on 5 Screens!
by Steve Mason
SUNDAY 9:00 a.m. (Pacific): Steve Carell and Anne Hathaway both have new all-time best opening weekends as Get Smart (Warner Bros.) has scored an excellent $39.15 million. The action-comedy delivered an estimated $13.5 million on opening day, was up 5 percent on Saturday for $14.2 million, and Warner Bros is anticipating an $11.45 million Sunday.
For Carell, who steps into the shoes of Don Adams from the late '60s TV hit, Get Smart tops his previous best opening, Evan Almighty:
ALL-TIME BEST STEVE CARELL LIVE ACTION OPENING WEEKENDS
1. Get Smart — $39.15 million (Estimated)
2. Evan Almighty — $31.19 million
3. Anchorman — $28.41 million
4. The 40-Year-Old Virgin — $21.42 million
5. Dan in Real Life — $11.8 million
For Hathaway, the Peter Segal-directed comedy eclipses 2006's The Devil Wears Prada:
ALL-TIME BEST ANNE HATHAWAY OPENING WEEKENDS
1. Get Smart — $39.15 million (Estimated)
2. The Devil Wears Prada — $27.53 million
3. The Princess Diaries 2: A Royal Engagement — $22.95 million
4. The Princess Diaries — $22.86 million
5. Ella Enchanted — $6.16 million
The world of television has meant big dollars for Warner Bros. this summer, first with the very successful Sex and the City and now Get Smart, which becomes the all-time fourth-best live action TV adaptation (non-sequel).
ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR LIVE ACTION TV ADAPTATIONS (Excluding sequels)
1. Sex and the City — $57.03 million
2. Mission: Impossible — $45.43 million
3. Charlie's Angels — $40.12 million
4. Get Smart — $39.15 million (Estimated)
5. S.W.A.T. — $37 million
6. The Dukes of Hazzard — $30.67 million
7. The X-Files — $30.13 million
8. Starsky & Hutch — $28.1 million
9. Wild, Wild West — $27.68 million
10. The Addams Family — $24.23 million
There was much less box-office love for Mike Myers's new comedy The Love Guru
(Paramount), which will likely finish No. 4 for the day and for the
weekend. The film has limped out of the gate with a disappointing
$5 million, and, even with the help of recording superstar Justin Timberlake
and Jessica Alba, the poorly reviewed comedy will manage only $14 million on
its opening weekend. After back-to-back-to-back $150 million, and most likely
$200 million, grossing movies, this represents a setback for Paramount
(although the DreamWorks comedy Tropic Thunder, set for August, has a chance to be the biggest hit of the late-summer).
Myers's first non-Shrek movie since 2003's The Cat in the Hat will probably be only the fifth-best opening of his career.
ALL-TIME BEST LIVE ACTION MIKE MYERS OPENINGS
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember — $73 million
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me — $54.91 million
3. The Cat in the Hat — $38.32 million
4. Wayne's World — $18.12 million
5. The Love Guru — $14 million (Estimated)
Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount), in its final pre-WALL-E (Disney) weekend, scored another $21.7 million Friday-thru-Sunday and is headed for an estimated new cume of more than $155 million. Industry sources are telling me that Panda will likely finish its domestic run with $230 million-$240 million, which would be a spectacular showing.
Marvel's The Incredible Hulk (Universal) has dipped more than 60 percent to the No. 3 spot with only about $21.55 million for its second weekend. After 10 days, the rebooted Edward Norton Hulk debut will be at about $96.5 million domestic, putting it slightly behind the pace of Ang Lee's version of the big green guy from five years ago.
M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening (20th Century Fox) fell 67 percent to an estimated $10 million on its second weekend. The fifth-place finish edges the R-rated genre pic just over $50 million domestic.
The best Per Theater Average posted was for Picturehouse's Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, starring Abigail Breslin. At just five locations, the 'tween-girl-fueled G-rated film generated over $44,000 per location, as it prepares to go wide on July 2.
FINAL 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $39.15 million, $10,011 PTA, $39.15 million cume
2. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks) — $21.7 million, $5,354 PTA, $155.59 million cume
3. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $21.55 million, $6,145 PTA, $96.47 million cume
4. NEW The Love Guru (Paramount) — $14 million, $4,648 PTA, $14 million cume
5. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $10 million, $2,986 PTA, $50.26 million cume
6. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $8.41 million, $3,171 PTA, $290.83 million cume
7. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) — $7.2 million, $2,196 PTA, $84 million cume
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $6.46 million, $2,442 PTA $132.38 million cume
9. Iron Man (Paramount) — $4 million, $1,912 PTA, $304.78 million cume
10. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $1.94 million, $1,235 PTA, $49.58 million cume
FINAL 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — 5 locations, $44,600 PTA
2. Encounters at the End of the World (ThinkFilm) — 1 location, $17,600 PTA
3. NEW Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — 3,911 locations, $10,011 PTA
4. Mongol (Picturehouse) — 94 locations, $7,914 PTA
5. NEW Brick Lane (Sony Classics) — 7 locations, $7,214 PTA
6. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — 3,508 locations, $6,145 PTA
7. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 4,053 locations, $53,354 PTA
8. NEW The Love Guru — 3,012 locations, $4,648 PTA
9. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — 2,986 locations, $3,348 PTA
10. When Did You Last See Your Father (Sony Classics) — 26 locations, $2,711 PTA
SATURDAY 12:00 p.m. (Pacific): I've been told that Get Smart (Warner Bros.) grabbed closer to $13.5 million on opening day, and although the film still has an outside shot at $40 million, it is more likely to finish in the $37 million range. The Incredible Hulk fell even more steeply than I reported last night, with a $6.5 million second Friday. The Louis Leterrier-directed comic book adaptation will likely finish the frame with about $21 million and a new cume of almost $96 million. On the other hand, The Love Guru (Paramount), has been revised slightly upwards, with $5.4 million and the possibility of reaching $15 million for the weekend.
FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): The new Warner Bros. action comedy Get Smart has easily won the battle of big studio comedies with $15 million on Friday and a likely $40 million opening weekend. The movie, adapted from the classic Mel Brooks-Buck Henry late '60s TV classic received decent reviews (51 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and a 53 score on MetaCritic), and it is well on its way to one of the all-time best openings for a live-action television adaptation.
The world of television has meant big dollars for Warner Bros. this summer, first with the mega-hit Sex and the City, and now Get Smart, which becomes the all-time fourth-best live action TV adaptation (non-sequel).
ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR LIVE ACTION TV ADAPTATIONS (Excluding sequels)
1. Sex and the City — $57.03 million
2. Mission: Impossible — $45.43 million
3. Charlie's Angels — $40.12 million
4. Get Smart — $40 million (Estimated)
5. S.W.A.T. — $37 million
6. The Dukes of Hazzard — $30.67 million
7. The X-Files — $30.13 million
8. Starsky & Hutch — $28.1 million
9. Wild, Wild West — $27.68 million
10. The Addams Family — $24.23 million
The Peter Segal-directed comedy will likely also mark the all-time best openings for stars Steve Carell and Anne Hathaway"
ALL-TIME BEST STEVE CARELL LIVE ACTION OPENING WEEKENDS
1. Get Smart — $40 million (Estimated)
2. Evan Almighty — $31.19 million
3. Anchorman — $28.41 million
4. The 40-Year-Old Virgin — $21.42 million
5. Dan in Real Life — $11.8 million
ALL-TIME BEST ANNE HATHAWAY OPENING WEEKENDS
1. Get Smart — $40 million (Estimated)
2. The Devil Wears Prada — $27.53 million
3. The Princess Diaries 2: A Royal Engagement — $22.95 million
4. The Princess Diaries — $22.86 million
5. Ella Enchanted — $6.16 million
There was much less box-office love for Mike Myers's new comedy The Love Guru
(Paramount), which will likely finish No. 4 for the day and for the weekend. The film has limped out of the gate with a disappointing
$5 million, and, even with the help of recording superstar Justin Timberlake
and Jessica Alba, the poorly reviewed comedy will manage only $14 million on
its opening weekend. After back-to-back-to-back $150 million, and most likely
$200 million, grossing movies, this represents a setback for Paramount
(although the DreamWorks comedy Tropic Thunder, set for August, has a chance to be the biggest hit of the late-summer).
Myers's first non-Shrek movie since 2003's The Cat in the Hat will probably be only the fifth-best opening of his career:
ALL-TIME BEST LIVE ACTION MIKE MYERS OPENINGS
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember — $73 million
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me — $54.91 million
3. The Cat in the Hat — $38.32 million
4. Wayne's World — $18.12 million
5. The Love Guru — $14 million (Estimated)
Marvel's The Incredible Hulk (Universal) has posted the No. 2 Friday gross with an estimated $7.25 million, but that will translate to only about $22.5 million for its second weekend. That is a huge 60 percent or so drop, and, after 10 days, the rebooted Edward Norton Hulk debut will be at about $97.41 million domestic. That would put The Incredible Hulk slightly behind the pace of Ang Lee's version of the big green guy from five years ago.
Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount), in its final pre-WALL-E (Disney) weekend, scored another $6.3 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $21.75 million three-day, for a new cume of more than $155 million. Industry sources are telling me that Panda will likely finish its domestic run with $230 million-$240 million, which would be a spectacular showing.
M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening (20th Century Fox) fell to $3.2 million or so on Friday, and the genre pic's second weekend take will likely be an estimated $10.25 million. That would represent a 65 percent drop from last weekend while still rounding out the Top 5.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $15 million, $3,835 PTA, $15 million cume
2. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $7.25 million, $2,067 PTA, $82.16 million cume
3. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks) — $6.3 million, $1,554 PTA, $140.19 million cume
4. NEW The Love Guru (Paramount) — $5 million, $1,660 PTA, $5 million cume
5. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $3.2 million, $1,072 PTA, $43.46 million cume
6. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) — $2.4 million, $732 PTA, $79.25 million cume
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $2.3 million, $725 PTA, $284.72 million cume
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $2.2 million, $901 PTA $128.12 million cume
9. Iron Man (Paramount) — $1.1 million, $575 PTA, $301.88 million cume
10. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $800,000, $507 PTA, $48.43 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Get Smart (Warner Bros) — $40 million, $10,228 PTA, $40 million cume
2. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $22.5 million, $6,414 PTA, $97.41 million cume
3. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks) — $21.75 million, $5,366 PTA, $155.64 million cume
4. NEW The Love Guru (Paramount) — $14 million, $4,648 PTA, $14 million cume
5. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $10.25 million, $3,433 PTA, $50.51 million cume
6. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $8.1 million, $2,554 PTA, $290.52 million cume
7. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) — $7.32 million, $2,233 PTA, $84.1 million cume
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $6.5 million, $2,662 PTA $132.42 million cume
9. Iron Man (Paramount) — $3.85 million, $2,014 PTA, $304.63 million cume
10. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $2.24 million, $1,420 PTA, $49.87 million cume
Is it just me or is there an over-saturation of movies out in theaters? I think a lot of these could do much better with less competition. Specifically Zohan, Hulk, Guru. Even Get Smart. Next week we still got Wanted and Wall-E.
Posted by: undeadmonkey | June 20, 2008 at 11:28 PM
hey isnt miami vice considered by many movie websites a live action tv adaptation(i thought the movie was well made crime drama that was clearly a more gritty modernized version of the series)? Because i think it is, and it should be number 10 in your top ten list since it made 25.7 million its first weekend.
Anyways, im glad get smart is doing well, it was a fun movie to watch. When i saw it the theater was packed and they clapped at the end. Everybody was great in the film, espechally steve carrell, anne hathaway, and dwayne johnson. Also im suprised love guru did 5 million because outside of the theater i went to i heard a lot of talk from people planning on seeing the love guru. And while 5 million is actually considered by many, its pg-13 so its audience isnt limited(unlike semi pro and heartbreak kid--who both movies are doing great on dvd, and heartbreak kid did 90 million alone overseas)(because rated r comedies are a tough sell). Maybe love guru's friday totals is underestimated and can make 6 or 7 million on friday(but i dont know)--because even though i like get smart better I also want love guru to do well too (at least 18 million). Does anybody know of the chances that love guru can do well overseas? I already know that get smart is going to do well overseas. Example (as far as most recent) is Miami Vice was rated R but made over 100 million overseas alone, and i think starsky and hutch also did well overseas (i think 80 million overseas).
Posted by: jamal | June 21, 2008 at 02:18 AM
Whoops i noticed a mistake i made in my post-- i meant to say that 5 million in its first day is actually considered a decent day(but i still wished that love guru made more its first day[maybe now he can do a waynes world sequel *fingers crossed*]. Hey but at least steve carrell's[the better comedian] movie did great-- im hoping for a sequel). And talk bit i talked about with miami Vice and starsky and hutch-i was talking about overseas gross success for live action TV adaptations. Anyways can anyone predict how much love guru can make overseas alone? Just wondering.
Posted by: jamal | June 21, 2008 at 02:34 AM
Thanks, Steve!
Posted by: Edward Douglas | June 21, 2008 at 05:00 AM
any word yet on how kit kittredge is doing? boxofficemojo has its friday estimates at 100,000 at 5 sites for a 20,000 pta on friday can that even be right?
Posted by: nick | June 21, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Hi Nick,
Just confirmed. KIT KITTREDGE is a PTA monster. It may struggle when it goes wide, but it will easily win the weekend PTA race.
-Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | June 21, 2008 at 01:16 PM
Good movies manage to thrive even though the market is overly saturated. Yes, ideally, studios prefer a period wherein their films have no competition but that is hardly the case during the summer. The best way to deal with that is to have an exemplary film that will play well throughout the summer to ensure that their movie will not fade away after opening weekend.
Posted by: Josh | June 21, 2008 at 02:08 PM
dissapointed for hulk 2...it deserves so much better....may be 5 years wasn't time enough to erase the horrid memories assosiated with hulk 1.
it's weird that even 50% of the 350 million(average) worth spiderman fans won't watch another superhero movie.
here's hoping it's weekday legs are be great.
Posted by: abhishek | June 21, 2008 at 03:36 PM
Hi Mason,
I Think you ought to tell us, when you are going to take a day off from posting the friday/saturday/sunday numbers, some of us actuially stay up waiting for this numbers and it would be rather courteous of you to let us know, Thanks
Posted by: Fido | June 22, 2008 at 02:52 AM
Hey, Fido, if you seriously stay up until the wee hours to get boxoffice numbers, you really need to get a life....
Posted by: Kit Sung | June 22, 2008 at 10:29 AM
I seem to remember Kitt Kitridge was a strong NOT BUY in a B.O. analysis. At $4mil in ultimate leagues the PTA points always made it a buy in my mind. Anyway.... Glad it did perform well
Posted by: Ryan | June 22, 2008 at 03:43 PM
Unless Wall-E bombs, I don't see 230-240 million for Kung Fu Panda's domestic run, although it has good chance to reach 200 million, provided it doesn't follow Over the Hedge's post Cars weekend boxoffices.
Posted by: Monty | June 22, 2008 at 06:52 PM